New perspectives on population ageing in Scotland

4 November 2013 - A seminar which took place as part of the Economic and Social Research Council's (ESRC) Festival of Social Science was told that the 'Old Age Dependency Ratio' normally used to measure 'population ageing', is fundamentally flawed and not fit for purpose. The ratio estimates how many workers there are for each potentially dependent older person and is forecast to rise rapidly. This projected rise lies behind such policies as the raising of the State Pension Age for men and women.

Dr Jeroen Spijker and Professor John MacInnes, whose research is funded by ESRC, argue that better measures of population ageing show that this dependency ratio has been falling substantially rather than rising, and is set to increase only modestly in the years to come.

Dr Spijker said: 'Many of the developments that lead to people living longer - better public health, better diet, better health and safety at work, better treatments for chronic health conditions - also lead to them being healthier. This reduces the burden of population ageing.' Professor MacInnes added 'Life expectancy at any given age is increasing dramatically. When people say that 'sixty is the new forty' they may be exaggerating, but they have understood what is happening to ageing better than some of the 'experts'. Scottish men aged 65 can now have an expect to live another 17 years on average, (women 20 years), compared to only 12 years (women 16) as recently as 1980.

Speakers at the event, included Kirsty MacLachlan, National Records Scotland who looked at the data on population ageing collected by the Scottish Government; Professor David Bell, University of Stirling who introduced HAGIS: the new Scottish longitudinal study of ageing; and David Sinclair, at the International Longevity Centre, UK, who talked about how policy should address population ageing. Tim Ellis, Registrar General for Scotland chaired the seminar.

The seminar took place at the Dome, New Register House, Edinburgh on Monday 4 November, 2pm - 5pm.

Professor MacInnes and Dr Spijker will also be giving a seminar at CPC on 12 December 2013: 'Population ageing: the time-bomb that isn't?' - you can also read their BMJ paper online now.

The research was also covered in the Scottish Herald: 'Don't worry about ageing Scotland as 60 really is the new 40'

Posted 04/11/2013 11:58