19 June 2014 - CPC hosted a one-day workshop on the use of probabilistic forecasts, with focus on population applications, held at the Royal Statistical Society in London.
The main aim of the workshop was to bring together both academics and practitioners of probabilistic population forecasting to discuss barriers to the uses of probabilistic forecasts and possible ways to overcome them.
A second aim was to learn from the best practice in other areas of application of probabilistic forecasting.
The focus of the programme was on various aspects of communicating uncertainty in demographic forecasting, and on developing practical guidelines both for "producers", as well as "consumers" (users) of probabilistic population forecasts.
Confirmed speakers and panellists included (in alphabetical order):
Ms Isabel Alberts (German Weather Service) • Prof. Juha Alho (University of Helsinki) • Dr John Bryant (Statistics New Zealand) • Dr Thomas Buettner (formerly UN Population Division) • Dr Patrick Gerland (UN Population Division) • Prof. Nico Keilman (University of Oslo) • Dr Giampaolo Lanzieri (Eurostat) • Prof. Anthony O'Hagan (University of Sheffield) • Dr Luca Onorante (Central Bank of Ireland) • Mr Darragh Owens (aviation) • Mr Richard Pereira (Office for National Statistics)• Prof. Adrian Raftery (University of Washington) • Dr Hana Ševčíková (University of Washington)
Download the full programme
The event was jointly organised by the ESRC Centre for Population Change, the EPSRC Care Life Cycle Project at the University of Southampton, and the Probabilistic Population Projection Group at the University of Washington, Seattle, WA.