Special CPC-themed edition of Population Trends published today

Five papers by CPC researchers have been included in the Autumn 2010 issue of Population Trends.They were chosen to showcase both the range of research topics and the variety of datasets being used within the Centre.

• Stability and change in fertility intentions in Britain, 1991-2007 Maire Ni Bhrolchain, Eva Beaujouan and Ann Berrington
  
• National and International Graduate Migration Flows, Irene Mosca and Robert E. Wright
  
• The demographic characteristics and economic activity patterns of carers over 50: evidence from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, Athina Vlachantoni
  
• Migration in Later life: Evidence from the British Household Panel Study, Maria Evandrou, Jane Falkingham and Marcus Green
  
• A comparison of official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales Guy J. Abel, Jakub Bijak and James Raymer
  

The first article by Maire Ni Bhrolchain, Eva Beaujouan and Ann Berrington presents the initial results from a new combined dataset bringing together data from the General Household Survey for the period 1991-2007. The paper examines time trends in family intentions in order to improve our understanding of recent trends in fertility. The research challenges the idea that the trend toward later childbearing is the result of active 'postponement' but argues that the whole environment of opportunities and incentives for childbearing has been changing, resulting in a progressive increase in the age of mothers at all parities.

This is followed by an article by Irene Mosca and Robert Wright who use HESA data to examine the nature of national and international graduate migration flows in the UK. The analysis suggests that migration is a selective process with graduates with certain characteristics having considerably higher probabilities of migrating both to other regions of the UK and abroad.

Moving further up the life course, Athina Vlachantoni investigates the demographic characteristics and economic activity patterns of carers over the age of 50 in England using data from the English Longitudinal survey of Ageing (ELSA). The results suggest that the nature of care provision changes at different points of the lifecourse, and that it is quite a different experience for men and women. In particular, the research sheds new light on the so-called 'round-the-clock' carers, who make up just over one-fifth of all carers aged 50 and over.

Maria Evandrou, Jane Falkingham and Marcus Green then explore the factors associated with migration amongst people aged 50 and over using data from the British Household Panel Study over the period 1991 - 2007. Previous research has distinguished three distinct types of migration at older ages: 'amenity' related or retirement migration undertaken to improve quality of life; disability or health-related migration, undertaken to move closer kin; and finally moves into institutions towards the end of life. The paper highlights that as divorce and remarriage become more common in later life, a fourth category of 'relationship driven migration' may need to be added to this typology.

Finally, Guy Abel, Jakub Bijak and James Raymer from the CPC modelling strand compare official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales that allow of the inclusion of uncertainty in a consistent manner. The results lend support to the idea that the methods currently used to produce population projections should be modified to include a greater emphasis on specifying uncertainty, allowing more informed decisions to be made by population planners and policy makers.

Papers can be viewed or downloaded by clicking on Autumn 2010 issue of Population Trends.

Media articles relating to this publication can be veiwed here;

Daily Telegraph

Independent

Daily Mail

Posted 23/09/2010 10:52

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