Video now available: 'Fertility under fundamental uncertainty' with Daniele Vignoli

Daniele Vignoli gave a CPC seminar on 16 May 2019 on his study exploring macro- and micro-level evidence on the relation between economic uncertainty and fertility.

Daniele is Professor of Demography at the University of Florence, and the Principal Investigator of the ERC Consolidator Grant EU-FER, “Economic Uncertainty and Fertility in Europe”. He is Editor-in-Chief of GENUS, Journal of Population Sciences; Scientific Co-Coordinator of the University of Florence Academic Spin–Off VALMONs.r.l; as well as an elected member of the Steering Committee of the Italian Statistical Society (SIS).

In his seminar, he reviews the relationship between economic uncertainty and if and when people have children.

The increasing speed, dynamics, and volatility of globalisation makes it increasingly difficult for individuals to predict and plan their futures. We are seeing an unprecedented level of economic uncertainty, which, he argues, represents the game-changer in contemporary societies and family life. So far, these uncertainties have been operationalised through objective indicators of individuals' labour market situation, and through their subjective perception.

As an alternative to this empirical tradition, Daniele argues that fundamental uncertainty needs to be conceptualised and operationalised, taking into account that people use works of imagination, producing their own “narrative of the future”. Namely, imagined futures embedded in social elements and their interactions.

These personal narratives of the future are anchored in existing cultural and institutional frames, as well as public images produced by the press and social media. The narratives of the future become potent driving forces of people's decisions to have children in spite of uncertainty, irrespective of structural constraints and their subjective perception. The talk ends by offering further research prospects on the topic.

A recording of the seminar is available on the CPC YouTube channel:


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Posted 31/05/2019 10:51