Centre for Population Change shortlisted for ESRC Celebrating Impact Prize

Professor Jane Falkingham OBE and CPC colleagues have been shortlisted for this year’s Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) Celebrating Impact Prize for Outstanding Public Policy Impact.

Join the ESRC Celebrating Impact Prize finalist ceremony, where you can watch a short film on our outstanding policy impact and find out who the winners are, on 12 November at 14:00-15:45.

CPC researchers have improved estimates of the current and future population of the UK, providing national and local policy-makers, planners and businesses with better evidence for policy and planning public services, as well as accurate data for business decisions.

“We’re delighted that we’ve earned recognition for the many innovations the Centre for Population Change has developed and successfully introduced by being shortlisted for this ESRC Celebrating Impact Prize,” said CPC Director, Professor Jane Falkingham. "Understanding our population – how many people there are, their ages, where they live, who they live with and how they are likely to behave – is critical to government and to business. Over the last decade, the CPC team has improved the measurement of demographic change, resulting in more accurate population projections and statistics to support UK policy and busines planning. For example, more accurate fertility histories in the General Household Survey data have improved school place planning, and more precise estimates of life expectancy mean that pension provision better reflects the population.

“Our research also explores what demographic change means for society and the people living in it,” she continued. “For example, CPC researchers have looked at the impacts of policy on some of the country’s most vulnerable groups; forecasting, for example, that the number of unpaid carers in the UK will rise from 7 million to over 10 million by 2050. Highlighting the growing importance of unpaid carers and their role in supporting older people to remain living independently in the community draws attention to the need for appropriate employer and policymaker responses."

From its outset, CPC researchers have worked closely with the ONS to ensure their work addresses the most relevant policy topics. They have developed better measures of the three drivers of population change – fertility, mortality and migration. CPC’s population projections and estimates related to these areas are being used to:

• Improve fertility estimation for local authorities, creating a better means to predict demand for key services such as school places, including nursery and early years learning, as well as maternity services;


• Develop new methodology for estimating life expectancy at older ages which has informed the way pension, life and health insurance products are priced as well as helping people better plan their pension and care needs;


• Reintroduce post-study work visas for international students following a CPC, ONS and Universities UK collaboration that helped to revise inaccurate figures on international student out-migration. This has improved understanding of student mobility and allayed concerns about non-compliance with student visas.

In 2020, CPC researchers have rapidly focused on the complex problems posed by Covid-19, offering timely evidence on issues as wide-ranging as the virus’s impact on existing socio-economic inequalities to the positive benefits of lockdown for parent-child relationships.

The CPC team have also led in the development of more effective estimates of excess mortality due to Covid-19. Their estimates take account of changing population structures and long-term trends in mortality. More accurate estimation is crucial in determining the effect of the present pandemic and its differing impacts within the population, and CPC is working closely with ONS to ensure the methods are applied.

To date, CPC has informed population-relevant discussions at more than 90 events with civil servants and policy-makers in government and local authorities, delivered 77 policy briefings, and produced 59 reports with, and for, intergovernmental organisations including the United Nations, government and European departments, local councils and charities.

The Centre for Population Change is funded by the ESRC and is partnership between the Universities of Southampton, St. Andrews, and Stirling, in collaboration with the Office for National Statistics and the National Records of Scotland.

Posted 19/10/2020 15:02

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