Do fertility intentions differ across England, Wales, and Scotland?

Since the late 1970s, fertility rates have tended to be lower in Scotland, than in England or Wales, and the gap has increased over time. ONS data showed that in 2021, period fertility rates implied an average for Scotland of 1.31 children per woman, compared to 1.49 in Wales, and 1.62 in England.

In response to this, the Scottish Government has put in place a population strategy that aims to remove barriers to childbearing, for example by committing to building more affordable homes, providing additional childcare places, and introducing the Scottish Child Payment. The strategy draws on previous research suggesting that women in Scotland appear to be less likely to have larger families (more than two children) than English women and leave a longer space between births. The previous research also suggested that the differences between Scotland and England are not due to England having a larger immigrant and ethnic minority population, as the differences remain when excluding women born outside of the UK and ethnic minorities. However, the previous work is more than a decade old.

A new CPC-CG Working Paper, entitled 'Understanding fertility trends in Britain: Do fertility intentions differ across England, Wales, and Scotland', by Professor Ann Berrington, Dr Bernice Kuang, Dr Sarah Christison, and Professor Hill Kulu, explores and compares trends in period and cohort fertility across Britain. The study analyses whether there are differences in fertility intentions among women across the British nations, and investigates to what extent cross-national differences are explained by population composition. They found:

• Fertility in Britain fell to a historically low level in 2020.
• Since the late 1970s, Scotland has consistently recorded significantly lower levels of fertility than England and Wales.
• The difference appears to be due to lower rates of childbearing among women in their thirties and forties in Scotland as compared to England.
• Some, but not all the difference can be attributed to higher fertility among foreign-born women in the UK. Fertility of UK-born women in Scotland is lower than UK born women in England and Wales.
• Survey data on fertility intentions show that there are no differences in intentions to have a first birth. However, Scottish (and Welsh) mothers are less likely to have a firm intention to have additional births.
• Analysis of fertility by age, parity and duration since last birth is critical to understand differences in childbearing behaviour between Scotland and England and Wales.

Read the full paper: Understanding fertility trends in Britain: Do fertility intentions differ across England, Wales and Scotland?

Posted 12/05/2023 08:34