Managing migration: What can we learn from simulation experiments?

In an increasingly interconnected world, migration has become a pressing global issue, prompting policymakers to seek innovative solutions to manage and understand its complexities. In a new Population Europe Policy Brief, CPC-CG member Professor Jakub Bijak and colleagues have found that interdisciplinary science, coupled with computer simulations, is emerging as a promising avenue to provide deeper insights into migration processes and aid policymakers in making better-informed decisions.

Computer simulations, particularly individual-level agent-based models, offer a unique perspective on migration dynamics by representing diverse entities such as migrants, actors, and policymakers, all interacting within their respective environments. By harnessing this approach, researchers can gain valuable insights into the intricacies of migration and unravel critical policy trade-offs and uncertainties.

One of the key lessons from agent-based models is the unpredictable response of migration flows to policy changes. This unpredictability stems from the intricate interplay between underlying drivers, prospective migrants' agency, and the decision-making process. Simulation models can help decision-makers navigate this complexity and understand the intended and unintended consequences of different policy options.

Simulation models of migration route formation also highlight the role of information and trust in shaping the ways in which migrants move across unknown terrain, and to identify promising areas for new data collection.

However, the success of such models lies in their specificity to address well-defined research or policy questions. Models should be tailored to provide relevant and actionable insights, ensuring their practicality and utility for policymakers.

Ethics also play a crucial role in designing simulation models for policy use. To safeguard against potential misuse, these models must be open, transparent, and honest about their processes and uncertainties. Promoting ethical design principles can ensure that the models serve as responsible decision-making tools.

As migration continues to be a prominent global issue, the collaboration between interdisciplinary science and computer simulations offers a promising path to bolster our understanding of migration processes and make informed policy decisions. By embracing these innovative tools, policymakers can navigate the complex landscape of migration and work towards building a more inclusive and sustainable world.

Read the Policy Brief: Managing migration: What can we learn from simulation experiments?

This work has received funding from the European Research Council, grant no. 725232 Bayesian Agent-based Population Studies.

Posted 21/07/2023 09:41