Trends in A8 migration to the UK during recession

A substantial proportion of contemporary immigration to Britain is by nationals of east and central European countries who have recently joined the EU. A study carried out by CPC published this week in the Office for National Statistics publication 'Population Trends' finds that the recession has seen significant changes in the concentration of 'A8' migrant labour in particular parts of the labour market. This interesting feature merits research at a time when UK unemployment rates are high and when the economy is struggling to recover from recession.

Since their accession to the European Union in May 2004, citizens from Poland, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia and Slovenia (the A8 countries) have had the right to participate in the UK labour market. A8 migrants were required to register under the Worker Registration Scheme (WRS) within one month of taking up employment in the UK. This dataset sheds light on where A8 migrants work and how their employment patterns have changed over time.

The WRS suggests that the volume of new arrivals from the A8 countries declined during the recession. The inflow during the recession was, however, still substantial (around 30,000 per quarter), despite rising UK unemployment. This may be explained by variations in how demand for migrant labour has been affected by the recession across different parts of the UK economy. The decline in demand for migrant labour relative to overall changes in employee jobs over the recession was particularly sizeable in sectors such as construction and hospitality, whereas in agriculture the inflow of migrant labour was affected to a much lesser extent. These trends are reflected in the geography of how new WRS registrations have changed since the onset of recession. In the local authorities with the largest concentrations of A8 migrants prior to the recession, the decline in the number of new arrivals has been less pronounced in rural than in urban areas.

In agriculture and agribusiness, East and Central European migrants seem to have continued to occupy a 'core' position, with UK employers even during recession finding it difficult to source domestic labour. Employers interviewed by CPC researchers argued that it was not just a matter of the quantity of labour available to them that was an issue, but that using A8 migrant labour offered many advantages to the running of their businesses. In many cases migrant workers were portrayed as being 'better' than domestic workers in terms of attributes such as work-ethic, 'flexibility' and aptitude. Labour shortages were the most commonly cited reasons for drawing on A8 migrant labour, although it could be argued that they (and hence the requirement for migrant labour) are not inevitable since employers could, in theory at least, offer higher wages to attract more local labour into work or substitute capital for labour.

A CPC Briefing Paper on this work is available here

Read the full article published in Population Trends here

Posted 22/09/2011 11:46