CPC Director appears on the More Or Less programme on BBC

CPC Director, Professor Jane Falkingham, appeared on the BBC World Service More Or Less programme, 'Predicting the global population', on 13 October 2012.

The United Nations Population Fund recently predicted that by 2050 1 in 5 of the global population will be over 60. However, when population levels are predicted further into the future, it gets much more difficult. This programme looked at the fact that some of the long-held assumptions about what happens to fertility rates as countries develop could be about to change.

"Historically, fertility has been falling across Europe," said Professor Falkingham. "But actually if we look at the most recent period, the last 10 years or so, we see rises in fertility in the most advanced countries."

The programme examined how predicting population will always be a highly uncertain science, and the issues that forecasters face.

"We've actually got population projections wrong consistently over the last 50 years," said Professor Falkingham, "and this is partly because we've underestimated the improvements in mortality, particularly older age mortality, but also we've not been very good at spotting the trends in fertility."

To listen to the full programme, go to the BBC World Service site (Professor Falkingham is introduced at 02:47).

You can also read the news story 'Can we be sure the world's population will stop rising?' on the BBC website.

Posted 15/10/2012 16:32