How do you forecast International migration? CPC Members write report for the Migration Advisory Committee

Migration is a global phenomenon and the UK is an important destination, as well as origin, for many migrants. In recent years, migration has become an important topic in the UK policy debate. Having accurate knowledge of actual and predicted migration flows can be very useful for the planning and implementation of new policy tools and instruments, so what is the best way to forecast international migration?

A new report written for the Migration Advisory Committee and the Home Office makes recommendations after evaluating existing migration forecasting methods and models. It looks at the difficulties of forecasting migration flows and aims to provide policy makers with recommendations related to the application of various forecasting approaches. 'Migration is very volatile and difficult to predict since it is very susceptible to shock events, such as economic cycles, military conflict and policy changes. But some types of migration flows are more stable, and therefore, more predictable than others' find CPC members Dr Jakub Bijak, Dr George Disney, Dr Arkadiusz Wisniowski, Professor Jonathan Forster and Professor Peter Smith. The team conclude that when forecasting international migration, it is important to tailor the model used to the type of migration flow being forecast and that future work should 'focus on early warning systems, detecting changes in migration trends and highlighting the potential policy impacts of migration processes'

The full report can be found on the Migration Advisory Committee website.

A CPC Briefing Paper on the report can be found here.

Posted 13/10/2015 12:57