Overview
The overall aim of the dynamic population modelling project is to develop a general and flexible platform for modelling and analysing population change over time. The core activity of this strand has been the development of Bayesian methods for the statistical modelling and forecasting of population change. This was started by building simple models for overall population growth rates before moving on to more complex ones that included demographic components, age and multiregional populations. The statistical modelling techniques have focused primarily on time series methods for dealing with correlations both over time and across regions and components.
Findings
A key contribution of this work is the assessment of the importance of model specification, expert opinion, model averaging and uncertainty in population models. The modelling team has been very active in engaging with ONS to improve their methods for population and migration estimation and have also collaborated with CPC Scotland to develop environmental migration forecasts for the UK.
Two commissioned reports were written for ONS, and members of the team also worked with them to develop general strategies for measuring uncertainty in the population, internal migration and international migration estimates under the S3RI contract. Furthermore, two commissioned reports were written for the Government Office for Science.
The modelling strand has also developed an overlapping generations computable general equilibrium (OLG CGE) model for Scotland.
Publications & Activities
A multilevel functional data method for forecasting population, with an application to the United Kingdom
International Journal of Forecasting (2016). 32 (3) 629-649
Authors: Shang H, Bijak J, Wiśniowski A, Smith P,
Bayesian cohort component population forecasts
Applied Geography IGU Conference 2013: Applied GIS and Spatial Modelling (2013). (Leeds)
Authors: Wiśniowski A, Smith P, Bijak J, Raymer J,
A functional data analytic approach for forecasting population size: A case study of United Kingdom
RSS 2014 (2013). (Newcastle)
Authors: Shang H,
Bayesian functional models for population forecasting
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections (2013). (Rome)
Authors: Shang H, Wiśniowski A, Bijak J, Smith P, Raymer J,
Bayesian Cohort Component Population Projections
Population Association of America 2013 Annual Meeting (2013). (New Orleans)
Authors: Smith P, Wiśniowski A, Raymer J,
Forecasting regional infant mortality counts: hierarchical time-series approaches
International Symposium on Forecasting (2013). (Seoul, South Korea)
Authors: Shang H,
Population forecasting: A Case Study of the United Kingdom
Postgraduate Research Showcase (2013).
Authors: Shang H,
Bayesian Modelling of International Migration with Labour Force Survey Data
Population Association of America 2013 Annual Meeting (2013). (New Orleans)
Authors: Wiśniowski A,
Incorporating model uncertainty into mortality forecasts
Institute and Faculty of Actuaries Mortality Seminar Series: Exploring the Future; Defining the Questions (2013). (Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, Staple Inn, London)
Authors: Forster J,
Bayesian Population Projections with Model Uncertainty
IUSSP 2013 (2013). (Busan, Korea)
Authors: Wiśniowski A, Smith P, Bijak J, Raymer J,
Bayesian bandwidth estimation for a semi-functional partial linear regression model with unknown error density
JSM 2013 (2013). (Montreal, Canada)
Authors: Shang H,
Bayesian cohort component population forecasts
JSM 2013 (2013). (Montreal, Canada)
Authors: Wiśniowski A, Smith P, Raymer J, Bijak J,
Operationalization of the Theory of Planned Behaviour: a Bayesian decision-theoretic perspective and a reflection
The decision to emigrate: Agent-based modelling of international migration (2013). (Rostock)
Authors: Bijak J,
Towards Reliable Migration Statistics for the United Kingdom
University of Southampton (2013).
Authors: Bijak J, Disney G, Lubman S, Wiśniowski A,
A functional data analysis approach for forecasting population: A case study for the United Kingdom
CPC (2013). Series Number: 41.
Authors: Shang H, Smith P, Bijak J, Wiśniowski A,
Grouped time-series forecasting with an application to regional infant mortality counts
CPC (2013). Series Number: 40.
Authors: Shang H, Smith P,
Migration and Recession: From Uncertainty to Resilience
Recession and Social Vulnerability in Europe: Insights from Demography. Population Europe Event (2013). (Brussels)
Authors: Bijak J,
Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom: an exploration using Bayesian models
Population and Environment (2013). 35 (2) 183-203
Authors: Abel G, Bijak J, Findlay A, McCollum D, Wiśniowski A,
Bayesian bandwidth estimation for a nonparametric functional regression model with mixed types of data and unknown error density
RSS 2013 (2013). (Newcastle)
Authors: Shang H,
Migration Assumptions in the UK National Population Projections: Methodology Review
University of Southampton (2012).
Authors: Bijak J,
Bayesian modelling of international migration with Labour Force Survey data
European Population Conference (2012). (Stockholm)
Authors: Wiśniowski A,
Bayesian modelling of International Migration using Labour Force Survey data
XII Doctoral Workshop in Statistics and Econometrics (2011). (Krakow)
Authors: Wiśniowski A,
Statistical Modelling of International Migration Flows - Invited paper for a Special Topic Session on Migration Statistics
58th World Statistics Congress of the International Statistical Institute (2011). (Dublin)
Authors: Bijak J, Wiśniowski A,
Combining census and registration data to analyse ethnic migration patterns in England from 1991 to 2007
Population, Space and Place (2011). 17 (1) 73-88
Authors: Raymer J, Smith P, Giulietti C,
The Uncertain World of Migration Forecasts: A European Perspective
Pathways, Circuits and Crossroads” Conference (2011). (Wellington, New Zealand)
Authors: Bijak J,
Does specification matter? Experiments with simple multiregional probabilistic population projections
CPC (2011). Series Number: 13.
Authors: Raymer J, Abel G, Rogers A,
Model specification and results of Bayesian forecasts of total and environmental immigration to the United Kingdom, 2010–2060
Government Office for Science (2011).
Authors: Abel G, Bijak J, Wiśniowski A, Findlay A, McCollum D,
The Uncertain World of Migration Forecasts. Invited presentation at the Meeting of the Environmental and Social Statistics sections of the Royal Statistical Society (RSS)
(Im)migration: Attitudes, Impacts and Projections (2011). (Royal Statistical Society, London)
Authors: Bijak J,
Improving the United Kingdom's immigration estimates
British Society for Population Studies Conference (2011). (York)
Authors: Raymer J, Crofts S,
Dynamic modelling of population change
Lecture (2011). (Office for National Statistics, Titchfield)
Authors: Raymer J, Wiśniowski A,
A conceptual framework for UK population and migration statistics
British Society for Population Studies Conference (2011). (York)
Authors: Raymer J, Blake A,
Overcoming the problems of inconsistent international migration data: A new method applied to flows in Europe
European Journal of Population (2010). 26 (4) 459-481
Authors: De-Beer J, Raymer J, Van-Der-Erf R, Van-Wissen L,
A comparison of official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales
CPC (2010). Series Number: 7.
Authors: Abel G, Bijak J, Raymer J,
Uncertainties in migration and population studies: From estimation to decision support
EMS 2010, 29th European Meeting of Statisticians (2010). (University of Piraeus, Greece)
Authors: Bijak J,
Bayesian forecasting and issues of uncertainty
4th ESRC Research Methods Festival (2010). (Oxford)
Authors: Bijak J,
Dealing with uncertainty in international migration predictions: from probabilistic forecasting to decision analysis
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections (2010). (Lisbon)
Authors: Bijak J,
Bayesian forecasting of immigration to selected European countries using expert knowledge
European Population Conference 2010 (2010). (University of Vienna, Austria)
Authors: Bijak J, Wiśniowski A,
A comparison of official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales
Population Trends (2010). 141 95-114
Authors: Abel G, Bijak J, Raymer J,
Combining available migration data in England to study economic activity flows over time
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (2010). 173 (4) 733-753
Authors: Smith P, Raymer J, Giulietti C,
The use of expert information in migration forecasting
ESRC-CASS Conference on Migration & Labour Markets (2010). (University of St Andrews)
Authors: Bijak J, Wiśniowski A,
Ethnic migration between area groups in England and Wales
Area (2009). 41 (4) 435-451
Authors: Raymer J, Giulietti C,
Uncertain world of international migration
ESRC-CASS Migration and Labour Markets Workshop (2009). (Beijing)
Authors: Bijak J,
Uncertain world of international migration
British Society for Population Studies Annual Conference (2009). (Brighton)
Authors: Bijak J,
