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  • Project contributors: Bijak J, Smith P, Forster J, Raymer J, Abel G, Wisniowski A, Shang H,

    This Project is linked to the following Strand/s:

    Integrated Demographic Estimation and Forecasting

    Overview

    The overall aim of the dynamic population modelling project is to develop a general and flexible platform for modelling and analysing population change over time. The core activity of this strand has been the development of Bayesian methods for the statistical modelling and forecasting of population change. This was started by building simple models for overall population growth rates before moving on to more complex ones that included demographic components, age and multiregional populations. The statistical modelling techniques have focused primarily on time series methods for dealing with correlations both over time and across regions and components.

    Findings
    A key contribution of this work is the assessment of the importance of model specification, expert opinion, model averaging and uncertainty in population models. The modelling team has been very active in engaging with ONS to improve their methods for population and migration estimation and have also collaborated with CPC Scotland to develop environmental migration forecasts for the UK.

    Two commissioned reports were written for ONS, and members of the team also worked with them to develop general strategies for measuring uncertainty in the population, internal migration and international migration estimates under the S3RI contract. Furthermore, two commissioned reports were written for the Government Office for Science.

    The modelling strand has also developed an overlapping generations computable general equilibrium (OLG CGE) model for Scotland.

    Publications & Activities

    A functional data analytic approach for forecasting population size: A case study of United Kingdom
    RSS 2014 (2013). (Newcastle)
    Authors: Shang H,

    Bayesian functional models for population forecasting
    Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections (2013). (Rome)
    Authors: Shang H, Wisniowski A, Bijak J, Smith P, Raymer J,

    Migration and Recession: From Uncertainty to Resilience
    Recession and Social Vulnerability in Europe: Insights from Demography. Population Europe Event (2013). (Brussels)
    Authors: Bijak J,

    Bayesian bandwidth estimation for a nonparametric functional regression model with mixed types of data and unknown error density
    RSS 2013 (2013). (Newcastle)
    Authors: Shang H,

    Bayesian Cohort Component Population Projections
    Population Association of America 2013 Annual Meeting (2013). (New Orleans)
    Authors: Smith P, Wisniowski A, Raymer J,

    Bayesian bandwidth estimation for a semi-functional partial linear regression model with unknown error density
    JSM 2013 (2013). (Montreal, Canada)
    Authors: Shang H,

    Operationalization of the Theory of Planned Behaviour: a Bayesian decision-theoretic perspective and a reflection
    The decision to emigrate: Agent-based modelling of international migration (2013). (Rostock)
    Authors: Bijak J,

    Population forecasting: A Case Study of the United Kingdom
    Postgraduate Research Showcase (2013).
    Authors: Shang H,

    Forecasting regional infant mortality counts: hierarchical time-series approaches
    International Symposium on Forecasting (2013). (Seoul, South Korea)
    Authors: Shang H,

    Incorporating model uncertainty into mortality forecasts
    Institute and Faculty of Actuaries Mortality Seminar Series: Exploring the Future; Defining the Questions (2013). (Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, Staple Inn, London)
    Authors: Forster J,

    Bayesian Modelling of International Migration with Labour Force Survey Data
    Population Association of America 2013 Annual Meeting (2013). (New Orleans)
    Authors: Wisniowski A,

    Bayesian cohort component population forecasts
    JSM 2013 (2013). (Montreal, Canada)
    Authors: Wisniowski A, Smith P, Raymer J, Bijak J,

    Towards Reliable Migration Statistics for the United Kingdom
    University of Southampton (2013).
    Authors: Bijak J, Disney G, Lubman S, Wisniowski A,

    Bayesian cohort component population forecasts
    Applied Geography IGU Conference 2013: Applied GIS and Spatial Modelling (2013). (Leeds)
    Authors: Wisniowski A, Smith P, Bijak J, Raymer J,

    Bayesian Population Projections with Model Uncertainty
    IUSSP 2013 (2013). (Busan, Korea)
    Authors: Wisniowski A, Smith P, Bijak J, Raymer J,

    Bayesian population forecasts for England and Wales
    (2012). Series Number: 37.
    Authors: Abel G, Bijak J, Forster J, Raymer J, Smith P,

    Towards an evidence base for understanding and predicting migration
    Exploring Research Synergies Meeting (2012). (ESRC Centre on Migration, Policy and Society (COMPAS), University of Oxford)
    Authors: Bijak J, Raymer J,

    Bayesian modelling of international migration with Labour Force Survey data
    European Population Conference (2012). (Stockholm)
    Authors: Wisniowski A,

    Migration Assumptions in the UK National Population Projections: Methodology Review
    University of Southampton (2012).
    Authors: Bijak J,

    Statistical Modelling of International Migration Flows - Invited paper for a Special Topic Session on Migration Statistics
    58th World Statistics Congress of the International Statistical Institute (2011). (Dublin)
    Authors: Bijak J, Wisniowski A,

    The Uncertain World of Migration Forecasts: A European Perspective
    Pathways, Circuits and Crossroads” Conference (2011). (Wellington, New Zealand)
    Authors: Bijak J,

    The Uncertain World of Migration Forecasts. Invited presentation at the Meeting of the Environmental and Social Statistics sections of the Royal Statistical Society (RSS)
    (Im)migration: Attitudes, Impacts and Projections (2011). (Royal Statistical Society, London)
    Authors: Bijak J,

    A conceptual framework for UK population and migration statistics
    British Society for Population Studies Conference (2011). (York)
    Authors: Raymer J, Blake A,

    Augmenting migration statistics with expert knowledge
    Migration: Economic Change, Social Challenge Conference (2011). (University College London)
    Authors: Wisniowski A, Keilman N, Bijak J, Forster J, Smith P, Raymer J, Christiansen S, Abel G,

    Model specification and results of Bayesian forecasts of total and environmental immigration to the United Kingdom, 2010–2060
    Government Office for Science (2011).
    Authors: Abel G, Bijak J, Wisniowski A, Findlay A, McCollum D,

    Bayesian modelling of International Migration using Labour Force Survey data
    XII Doctoral Workshop in Statistics and Econometrics (2011). (Krakow)
    Authors: Wisniowski A,

    Dynamic modelling of population change
    Lecture (2011). (Office for National Statistics, Titchfield)
    Authors: Raymer J, Wisniowski A,

    Improving the United Kingdom's immigration estimates
    British Society for Population Studies Conference (2011). (York)
    Authors: Raymer J, Crofts S,

    Bayesian population forecasts for England and Wales
    Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections (2010). (Lisbon)
    Authors: Abel G, Bijak J, Forster J, Raymer J, Smith P,

    Bayesian time series models for forecasting population growth in England and Wales
    European Population Conference 2010 (2010). (Vienna)
    Authors: Abel G, Bijak J, Forster J, Raymer J, Smith P,

    A comparison of official population projections with time series forecasts for England and Wales
    British Society for Population Studies (BSPS) Annual Conference (2010). (University of Essex)
    Authors: Abel G, Bijak J, Raymer J,

    Dealing with uncertainty in international migration predictions: from probabilistic forecasting to decision analysis
    Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections (2010). (Lisbon)
    Authors: Bijak J,

    The use of expert information in migration forecasting
    ESRC-CASS Conference on Migration & Labour Markets (2010). (University of St Andrews)
    Authors: Bijak J, Wisniowski A,

    Bayesian forecasting of immigration to selected European countries using expert knowledge
    European Population Conference 2010 (2010). (University of Vienna, Austria)
    Authors: Bijak J, Wisniowski A,

    Multiregional population projection models with uncertainty
    European Population Conference 2010 (2010). (University of Vienna)
    Authors: Raymer J, Rogers A, Abel G,

    Uncertainties in migration and population studies: From estimation to decision support
    EMS 2010, 29th European Meeting of Statisticians (2010). (University of Piraeus, Greece)
    Authors: Bijak J,

    Bayesian forecasting and issues of uncertainty
    4th ESRC Research Methods Festival (2010). (Oxford)
    Authors: Bijak J,

    A dynamic projection model for the foreign-born, second generation and native-born populations in the UK
    British Society for Population Studies Annual Conference (2009). (University of Sussex)
    Authors: Raymer J, Abel G, Forster J, Smith P, Bijak J,

    Uncertain world of international migration
    British Society for Population Studies Annual Conference (2009). (Brighton)
    Authors: Bijak J,

    A dynamic projection model for the UK population including minorities
    Multi-Attribute Analysis and Projection of Ethnic Populations Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences 2 Network Programme Seminar (2009). (European Science Foundation, Jevnaker, Norway)
    Authors: Raymer J, Abel G,

    Uncertain world of international migration
    ESRC-CASS Migration and Labour Markets Workshop (2009). (Beijing)
    Authors: Bijak J,