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  • Project contributors: Falkingham J, Evandrou M, Bijak J, Vlachantoni A, Hilton J, Bullock S, Brailsford S,

    This Project is part of the following research programme/s:

    Intergenerational exchange

    Population estimation and forecasting


    This research programme brought together teams of researchers from social sciences, management science and complexity science to develop a suite of models to represent the socio-economic and demographic processes and organisations implicated in the UK's health and social care provision. Integral to the project was working with our partners in the public sector and communicating the results of these models to policymakers allowing them to effectively plan for the future.

    Care Life Cycle

    Society's health and social care needs are determined by a complex set of interacting and interrelated factors, which together may be thought of as the Care Life Cycle (CLC).

    All factors are interrelatedThe Care Life Cycle
    An individual's need for care is influenced both by their own characteristics (eg age, gender, health, education, occupation) but also by their family circumstances and wider social networks. These in turn are influenced by their own and their (adult) children's resources(employment, wages, pensions) and patterns of mobility. Migration also influences the supply of the health and social workforce, which is also affected by patterns of education and training as well as relative wages in the labour market. Thus the Care Life Cycle operates at both the individual and society level.

    Our research programme collected data on the factors affecting the supply and demand of social and health care services, paying particular attention to the interactions between the Care Life Cycle components. We generated a suite of Care Life Cycle models, engaged with stakeholders and planners both throughout the development process, and gained an understanding of the role these models can play in influencing relevant policy.
    Find out more at the project website

    Publications & Activities

    The complex nature of pension adequacy: some insights from dynamic microsimulation for Portugal
    International Microsimulation Association 9th World Congress (2024). (Vienna, Austria)
    Authors: Nicola R, Evandrou M, Falkingham J,

    Could we move forward to a dynamic microsimulation modelling setting following the footsteps of EUROMOD?
    International Microsimulation Association 9th World Congress (2024). (Vienna, Austria)
    Authors: Nicola R, Evandrou M, Falkingham J,

    A hybrid simulation approach for planning health and social care services
    Journal of Simulation (2022).
    Authors: Penny K, Bayer S, Brailsford S,

    Evandrou M, Falkingham J, Robards J, Vlachantoni A, (2017) Chapter 22 - The Prevalence of Informal Care and its Association with Health: Longitudinal Research Using Census Data for England and Wales in A Handbook of Census Resources, Methods and Applications: Unlocking the UK 2011 Census

    The prevalence of informal care and its association with health: longitudinal research using census data for England and Wales
    2015 Census Applications Conference (2015). (University of Manchester)
    Authors: Falkingham J, Evandrou M, Robards J, Vlachantoni A,

    Agent-based models and statistical emulator sin demography: An example of modelling social care for the ageing UK
    BSPS 2013 (2013). (University of Swansea)
    Authors: Silverman E, Bijak J, Hilton J, Noble J,

    Care Life Cycle: Towards Modelling the Supply and Demand of Health and Social Care in the UK
    ARCHA Seminar (2013). (Aston University, Birmingham)
    Authors: Bijak J,

    Disablement in later life: moving beyond health determinants?
    University of Southampton (2012). Series Number: 1.
    Authors: Shaw R, Vlachantoni A, Evandrou M, Falkingham J,

    Linked Lives: The Utility of an Agent-Based Approach to Modelling Partnership and Household Formation in the Context of Social Care
    Winter Simulation Conference (2012). (Berlin)
    Authors: Noble J, Silverman E, Bijak J, Rossiter S, Evandrou M, Bullock S, Vlachantoni A, Falkingham J,

    Viana J, Rossiter S, Channon A, Brailsford S, Lotery A, (2012) Proceedings of the 2012 Winter Simulation Conference

    Noble J, Silverman E, Bijak J, Rossiter S, Evandrou M, Bullock S, Vlachantoni A, Falkingham J, (2012) Proceedings of the 2012 Winter Simulation Conference
    IEEE, 991-1002.

    Brailsford S, Evandrou M, Luff R, Shaw R, Viana J, Vlachantoni A, Willis R, (2012) Proceedings of the 2012 winter Simulation Conference

    Complex Systems Modelling for Supply and Demand in Health and Social Care
    Winter Simulation Conference (2011). (Phoenix, AZ)
    Authors: Brailsford S, Silverman E, Rossiter S, Bijak J, Shaw R, Viana J, Noble J, Efstathiou S, Vlachantoni A,