Research Programme

Survey of methodology on the quantitative assessment of the phenomenon of asylum-related migration

Jakub BijakJon ForsterJason Hilton

The Project is funded by the European Asylum Support Office


Project summary

This project aims to identify, review and assess the various quantitative models for explaining and predicting asylum-related migration, with the view of aiding the development of a bespoke European Asylum Support Office (EASO) asylum model in the longer term. The project will cover the following areas:

1. A comprehensive overview of existing empirical models, particularly of asylum-related migration, including their typology

2. A description of the extent of empirical data available for each model and the practical solutions employed to address gaps in the information

3. An assessment of existing models employed within States and international organisations, and the advantages/disadvantages of each, highlighting potential areas of overlap/synergies

Within this framework a feasibility study will be completed regarding the possibility of building Europe-wide quantitative models of asylum-related migration flows, and limitations of such models. The work will provide a set of recommendations and guidelines on the construction and interpretation of these models, and on communication of their results and limits to European policy users.


Project activities

Date Activity Description
16 May 2016 Presentation at the First International Conference on "EU and Global Asylum-Related Migration Research – Gaining an Overview” organised by the EASO and held in Floriana, Malta Presentation by Jakub Bijak on "Modelling Migration: Review and Assessment."






Bijak, J., Forster, J. and Hilton, J. Quantitative assessment of asylum-related migration: A survey of methodology. Report for the European Asylum Support Office, ESRC Centre for Population Change, University of Southampton, December 2016.


Media activities

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