Monday, September 6th 2021 - Thursday, September 9th 2021
Royal Statistical Society Conference 2021 (Conferences)

Manchester
Monday, September 6th 2021
Monday, September 6th 2021
Conference website
CPC members are organising a session on Statistical Demography.
Thursday, June 24th 2021
CPC Webinar - Chris Dibben (Seminars and lectures)

Chris Dibben, University of Edinburgh
Zoom
Thursday, June 24th 2021
13:00-1400 BST
This CPC webinar will be held on Thursday 24 June at 13:00 BST. Chris Dibben, University of Edinburgh, will be giving a talk TBC.
Title: TBC
Abstract: TBC
Registration: TBC
Meeting Recording:
We may be recording the seminar and your participation in the meeting may be captured. If you do not wish to feature in the recording, please ensure your microphone and camera are turned off for the duration of the talk. The Q&A session will not be recorded.
Your Details:
We require your name and email to process the event registration. We use this information to collate the number of attendees at our seminars and produce get aggregate level statistics to justify our seminars to our funders. If you have any issues with the way your data is collected, please email us at cpc@soton.ac.uk. Further information about the way we manage data can be found on our website here: http://www.cpc.ac.uk/about_us/privacy_notice/
Monday, June 14th 2021 - Friday, June 25th 2021
SICSS-Oxford 2021 (Conferences)

Virtual
Monday, June 14th 2021
Monday, June 14th 2021
The 2021 Oxford partner site of the Summer Institutes in Computational Social Science (SICSS) is now accepting applications.
The purpose of SICSS is to bring together graduate students, postdoctoral researchers, and early career researchers interested in computational social science for two weeks of intensive study and collaborative research that challenges disciplinary boundaries. The Summer Institutes are for both social scientists with an interest in computational research (broadly conceived) and data scientists (broadly conceived) with an interest in the social sciences.
SICSS-Oxford will be held online from June 14-25, 2021 and will be organised by Chris Barrie (University of Edinburgh), Charles Rahal, Francesco Rampazzo and Tobias Rüttenauer. It is generously supported by Nuffield College (in conjunction with the Department of Sociology and the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science).
The Summer Institutes will involve live and pre-recorded videos, group problem sets, and participant-led research projects. There will also be research talks from speakers who conduct computational social science research in a variety of settings, such as academia, industry, and government. Topics covered include text as data, website scraping, digital field experiments, non-probability sampling, mass collaboration, reproducible data carpentry and ethics. There will be ample opportunities for participants to discuss their ideas and research with the organisers and other participants and undertake group work. As we are committed to open and reproducible research, all materials created by faculty and students for SICSS are available via an open-source resource so that people who are unable to attend one of the institutes are able to learn online. Application are due by 11:59pm GMT on March 15th, 2021.
More information about SICSS-Oxford and the application procedure can be found on the SICSS-Oxford website: https://sicss.io/2021/oxford/.
Thursday, May 27th 2021
CPC Webinar - Ingrid Schoon (Seminars and lectures)

Ingrid Schoon, UCL, Institute of Education
Zoom
Thursday, May 27th 2021
13:00-14:00 BST
This CPC webinar will be held on Thursday 27 May at 13:00 BST. Ingrid Schoon, UCL, Institute of Education will be giving a talk title TBC.
Provisional title: The transition to adulthood in times of social change.
Abstract: TBC
Registration: TBC
Meeting Recording:
We will be recording the seminar and your participation in the meeting may be captured. If you do not wish to feature in the recording, please ensure your microphone and camera are turned off for the duration of the talk. The Q&A session will not be recorded.
Your Details:
We require your name and email to process the event registration. We use this information to collate the number of attendees at our seminars and produce get aggregate level statistics to justify our seminars to our funders. If you have any issues with the way your data is collected, please email us at cpc@soton.ac.uk. Further information about the way we manage data can be found on our website here: http://www.cpc.ac.uk/about_us/privacy_notice/
Wednesday, May 5th 2021 - Saturday, May 8th 2021
PAA 2021 Annual Meeting (Conferences)

Virtual
Wednesday, May 5th 2021
Wednesday, May 5th 2021
CPC members will be attended and presenting at PAA 2021. More details to follow.
Thursday, April 29th 2021
CPC Webinar - Emily Grundy (Seminars and lectures)

Emily Grundy, University of Essex
Zoom
Thursday, April 29th 2021
13:00-14:00 BST
This CPC webinar will be held on Thursday 29 April at 13:00. Emily Grundy, Professor of Population Science, University of Essex, will be giving a talk TBC.
Title: TBC
Abstract: TBC
Registration: TBC
Meeting Recording:
We may be recording the seminar and your participation in the meeting may be captured. If you do not wish to feature in the recording, please ensure your microphone and camera are turned off for the duration of the talk. The Q&A session will not be recorded.
Your Details:
We require your name and email to process the event registration. We use this information to collate the number of attendees at our seminars and produce get aggregate level statistics to justify our seminars to our funders. If you have any issues with the way your data is collected, please email us at cpc@soton.ac.uk. Further information about the way we manage data can be found on our website here: http://www.cpc.ac.uk/about_us/privacy_notice/
Saturday, April 17th 2021
Local Population Studies Society (Conferences)

University of Southampton & Virtual
Saturday, April 17th 2021
CPC researchers Stephanie Thiehoff and Andrew Hinde are the conference organisers for the "Local Population Studies Society Conference 2021". The conference will be held on 17 April 2021, organised in conjunction with the University of Southampton. At present, this conference will be in a virtual format, though we hope to offer a face-to-face option at the Centre for Nineteenth-Century Research at the University of Southampton should the disease environment allow this.
The conference is intended to showcase the work being done on local population history by postgraduate and postdoctoral researchers in universities in the United Kingdom and elsewhere in Europe. 'Local population studies' is broadly defined, and includes the following topics, and the interrelationship between them:
- Fertility and mortality patterns
- Migration
- Health
- Household and family structure
- Labour force participation
- Economic, social and cultural characteristics
Papers are invited from researchers in both social sciences and the humanities using both quantitative and qualitative methods.
Please submit offers of papers to the Conference organisers: Stephanie Thiehoff (S.Thiehoff@soton.ac.uk) and Andrew Hinde (PRAHinde@aol.com). Offers should include the following: title, name(s) of author(s) and an abstract of 150-200 words.
Associated Downloads
Friday, April 16th 2021
CPC Webinar - A Bayesian cohort component projection model to estimate adult populations at the subnational level (Seminars and lectures)

Monica Alexander, Statistics and Sociology, University of Toronto
Zoom
Friday, April 16th 2021
14:00-15:00 BST
This CPC webinar will be held on Friday 16 April at 14:00. Monica Alexander, Statistics and Sociology, University of Toronto will be giving a talk entitled "A Bayesian cohort component projection model to estimate adult populations at the subnational level."
Title: A Bayesian cohort component projection model to estimate adult populations at the subnational level
Abstract: Accurate estimates of subnational populations are important for policy formulation and monitoring population health indicators. For example, estimates of the number of women of reproductive age are important to understand the population at risk to maternal mortality and unmet need for contraception. However, in many countries, data on population counts are limited and are of poor quality, and so levels and trends subnationally are unclear. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate adult populations at the subnational level. The model builds on a cohort component projection framework, incorporates census data and estimates from the United Nation's World Population Prospects, and uses characteristic mortality schedules to obtain estimates of population counts and the components of population change. The data required as inputs to the model are minimal and available across a wide range of countries, including most low-income countries. The model is applied to estimate and project populations by county in Kenya for 1979-2020.
Registration: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZ0ode6ppjIrHdSH0isyX9eS_P5NoPFeuvJd
Meeting Recording:
We will be recording the seminar and your participation in the meeting may be captured. If you do not wish to feature in the recording, please ensure your microphone and camera are turned off for the duration of the talk. The Q&A session will not be recorded.
Your Details:
We require your name and email to process the event registration. We use this information to collate the number of attendees at our seminars and produce get aggregate level statistics to justify our seminars to our funders. If you have any issues with the way your data is collected, please email us at cpc@soton.ac.uk. Further information about the way we manage data can be found on our website here: http://www.cpc.ac.uk/about_us/privacy_notice/
Monday, March 29th 2021
Writing for publication: A masterclass with Professor Athina Vlachantoni (Workshops)

Professor Athina Vlachantoni
Virtual
Monday, March 29th 2021
12:00-13:00 BST
by British Society of Gerontology's Emerging Researchers in Ageing
Register for this free event on on Eventbrite.
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Join Professor Athina Vlachantoni, Deputy Editor of Ageing & Society, for a masterclass on how to publish your ageing-related research.
Writing for publication is an essential skill for academics. Besides allowing you to share your research within the wider academic community, being published in academic journals helps establish you as an expert in the field.
Athina Vlachantoni is Professor of Gerontology and Social Policy at the University of Southampton. She is a member of the British Society of Gerontology, and Deputy Editor of Ageing & Society. In this presentation, she will discuss how to prepare your research for publication, as well as:
• How to target the appropriate journal for your research.
• How the journal review process works.
• How to respond to revision and resubmission suggestions.
Take the first step towards publishing your work. Join us for an interesting and informative masterclass.
Thursday, March 25th 2021
CPC Webinar - Lifecourse of Place: how environments throughout life can support healthy ageing (Seminars and lectures)

Jamie Pearce, University of Edinburgh
Zoom
Thursday, March 25th 2021
13:00-14:00 GMT
This CPC webinar will be held on Thursday 25 March at 13:00 GMT. Jamie Pearce, University of Edinburgh will be giving a talk entitled "Lifecourse of Place: how environments throughout life can support healthy ageing"
Title: Lifecourse of Place: how environments throughout life can support healthy ageing
Abstract: Providing new insights into the how the places we live and grow older can be best designed to support healthy ageing has emerged as an important research and policy priority. Previous work has identified barriers to health and effective functioning for older people, and considered how environments experienced in older age might support people to age well. However, we know little about the aspects of environments experienced throughout life that might support the maintenance of healthy functioning in later life. This study examines how place-based circumstances from childhood through onwards can enhance healthy ageing. More particularly it draws on the "life course of place" to help examine how places evolve over time and what matter at different points in the lifecourse in predicting later life health outcomes. The seminar will describe the development of a dataset that captured the lifetime environmental circumstances (including green space, air pollution and area-level deprivation) of a cohort of older people (participants of the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936) alongside detailed individual-level information, including high quality indicators of healthy ageing. Early results from the study consider the impact of full lifetime exposures to these geographical indicators on indicators of healthy ageing collected through brain imaging, cognitive testing and biomarkers of biological ageing (telomere length and epigenetic clock). In particular, We will examine whether there are (a) critical periods (childhood, early adulthood, adulthood and later adulthood) in which area-level characteristics are particularly important in explaining the later life outcomes, and/or (b) whether the environmental factors accumulate over the lifecourse to affect healthy ageing.
Registration: TBC
Meeting Recording:
We will be recording the seminar and your participation in the meeting may be captured. If you do not wish to feature in the recording, please ensure your microphone and camera are turned off for the duration of the talk. The Q&A session will not be recorded.
Your Details:
We require your name and email to process the event registration. We use this information to collate the number of attendees at our seminars and produce get aggregate level statistics to justify our seminars to our funders. If you have any issues with the way your data is collected, please email us at cpc@soton.ac.uk. Further information about the way we manage data can be found on our website here: http://www.cpc.ac.uk/about_us/privacy_notice/
Monday, March 22nd 2021 - Friday, March 26th 2021
Understanding Society: Changing Families Mini Conference (Conferences)

Online
Monday, March 22nd 2021
Monday, March 22nd 2021
A week-long, mini-conference exploring families in the UK. Curated by CPC member and Understanding Society Topic Champion for Families, Professor Brienna Perelli-Harris, the week will focus on research on families and partnerships.
Sessions take place daily from 15:00 GMT from Monday 22 March 2021.
Monday 22 March - Non-Resident Families
3.00 - 3.15: Conference welcome, Professor Brienna Perelli-Harris (University of Southampton)
3.15 - 3.30: Were relationships between children and their non-resident parents affected during the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic? Caroline Bryson (LSE)
3.30 - 3.45: The mental load in separated families. Dr Renee Luthra (University of Essex)
3.45 - 4.00: TBC
4.00 - 4.15: Break
4.15 - 4.30: Families in Understanding Society. Professor Michaela Benzeval (University of Essex)
4.30 - 4.45: Discussant
4.45 - 5.15: Questions for presenters and discussion
Tuesday 23 March - Same-Sex Families
3.00 - 3.50: Keynote speaker Dr Diederik Boertien (Centre d'Estidos Demogràfics, Barcelona).
4.00 - 4.15: The long-term effect of family support on sleep problems for sexual minorities: evidence from a UK longitudinal study. Andrew Nielson (Brock University)
4.15 - 4.30: Early labour market outcomes of children in same-sex families: evidence from population data. Silvia Palmaccio (KU Leuven)
4.30 - 4.45: Discussant
4.45 - 5.15: Questions for presenters and discussion.
Wednesday 24 March - Housework and Gender
3.00 - 3.50: Keynote speaker Associate Professor Man Yee Kan (University of Oxford)
Gender division of labour: Paid work, domestic work, and total work in East Asian and Western Societies, 1980s - 2010s, and the declining significance of marriage and parental status in Great Britain, 1992 - 2017.
3.50 - 4.00: Break
4.00 - 4.15: Work less, help out more? The persistence of gender inequality in housework and childcare during UK Covid-19. Anna Zamberlan (University of Trento)
4.15 - 4.30: Unpaid care work and psychological distress during the first UK lockdown: evidence from Understanding Society. Professor Anne McMunn (UCL)
4.30 - 4.45: Wage growth predicted by couple division of paid and unpaid work across the UK wage distribution. Dr Niels Blom (University of Bath)
4.45 - 5.15: Questions for presenters and discussion
Thursday 25 March - Providing Care
3.00 - 3.15: Should I care or should I work? The impact of working longer on informal care. Dr Ludovico Carrino (King's College London)
3.15 - 3.30: Tracking the mental health of home-carers during the first lockdown: evidence from a nationally representative UK survey. Kelly Reeve (University of Essex)
3.30 - 3.45: Spousal care and marital quality in later life: a longitudinal analysis. Dr Ursula Henz (LSE)
3.45 - 4.00: Discussant
4.00 - 4.30: Questions for presenters and discussion.
Friday 26 March - Insecure Work and Family Relationships
3.00 - 3.15: Furlough and relationship quality. Dr Shih-Yi Chao (University of Southampton)
3.15 - 3.30: TBC
3.30 - 3.45: Does family life modify the effect of job security on mental health: a longitudinal analysis. Sukhdeep Kaur (Brock University)
3.45 - 4.00: Break
4.00 - 4.15: Parental socioeconomic status and young Briton's family expectations: are family structure and educational aspirations mediators of this relationship? Lydia Palumbo (University of Southampton)
4.15 - 4.30: Job instability and perceptions of employment uncertainty's effect on fertility outcomes. Brian Buh (Vienna Institute of Demography/ Austrian Academy of Sciences)
4.30 - 4.45: The future of families after Covid-19? Professor Brienna Perelli-Harris (University of Southampton)
4.45 - 5.30: Discussion
Registration details to follow.
Monday, March 22nd 2021 - Wednesday, March 24th 2021
Berlin Demography Days (Workshops)

Prof. Jane Falkingham
Virtual
Monday, March 22nd 2021
Monday, March 22nd 2021
CPC Director will be presenting at Berlin Demography Days, a three-day event that offers a platform for intense dialogue among scientific experts, policy makers, business leaders and representatives of international organisations and civil society.
Tuesday, 23 March 2021
On the second day, internationally renowned researchers will discuss the connection between demography, democracy and the welfare state in Europe. The lectures will deal with, among others, the question of equal access to the welfare state, aspects of generational justice, issues of social inequality and the effects of demographic changes on the composition of the electorate.
9:00 to 9:30: Opening Session (Dr Andreas Edel, Drs Nico van Nimwegen & Alanna Armitage)
9:30 to 10:00: Demography & Democracy: A Research Agenda (Prof. Dr Heike Klüver)
10:00 to 10:30: Demography & Brexit (Prof. Jane C. Falkingham OBE)
11:00 to 11:30: Migration and Access to Welfare in the EU: The Interplay Between Residence and Nationality (Dr Daniela Vintila)
11:30 to 12:00: No One Left Behind? Equality Goals of Welfare States & the Current State of Affairs in Finland (Prof. Dr Jani Erola)
13:00 to 13:30: Europe as a Continent of Pro-Elderly Welfare States within Child-Oriented Societies (Prof. Pieter Vanhuyss)
13:30 to 14:00: Why Bad Jobs are Bad for Democracy: Precarious Work & Political Participation in Europe (Prof. Ian Ross Macmillan)
Find the full programme and registration details at the Population Europe website.
Associated Downloads
Friday, March 19th 2021
CPC Webinar - Paleodemography of Black Sea Scythians: An exploration by using Bayesian methods (Seminars and lectures)

Sylwia Łukasik, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań & Jakub Bijak, University of Southampton
Zoom
Friday, March 19th 2021
12:00-13:00 GMT
This CPC webinar will be held on Friday 19 March at 12:00 GMT. Sylwia Łukasik, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań and Jakub Bijak, University of Southampton, will be giving a talk entitled "Paleodemography of Black Sea Scythians: An exploration by using Bayesian methods".
Title: Paleodemography of Black Sea Scythians: An exploration by using Bayesian methods
Video
Read the full paper by Sylwia Łukasik, Jakub Bijak, Marta Krenz‐Niedbała, Vitaly Sinika: https://doi.org/10.1002/ajpa.24211
Abstract: In this talk we present an application of Bayesian methods for assessing age at death in ancient societies, by using an example of a Black Sea Scythians population from 5th to 2nd century BCE, whose remains were excavated in Glinoe, Moldova. We offer brief background information about Scythians, before reviewing methods for assessing age at death based on the skeletal material, with focus on Bayesian methods used in that area of contemporary paleodemography. We illustrate the discussion with the results of the analysis for the Glinoe Scythian population, based on the multinomial-Dirichlet model proposed by Caussinus and Courgeau (2010) but with a range of prior reference populations, including a hypothetical, subjective one. The results indicate high uncertainty of age estimation, and high sensitivity to the assumptions and modelling choices, but still enable identifying some important features of the age at death distribution, such as elevated mortality risk in young adulthood, characteristic for this population of ancient warriors.
Registration: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZArc-6pqTktGNIB_Hvkxf__6et6AaCtRBhZ
Meeting Recording:
We may be recording the seminar and your participation in the meeting may be captured. If you do not wish to feature in the recording, please ensure your microphone and camera are turned off for the duration of the talk. The Q&A session will not be recorded.
Your Details:
We require your name and email to process the event registration. We use this information to collate the number of attendees at our seminars and produce get aggregate level statistics to justify our seminars to our funders. If you have any issues with the way your data is collected, please email us at cpc@soton.ac.uk. Further information about the way we manage data can be found on our website here: http://www.cpc.ac.uk/about_us/privacy_notice/
Friday, March 5th 2021 - Sunday, March 14th 2021
CPC at SOTSEF 2021 (Public engagement events)

Virtual
Friday, March 5th 2021
Friday, March 5th 2021
Southampton Science and Engineering Festival (SOTSEF) is the University of Southampton's annual award-winning science festival that allows everyone to explore and discover what the world of STEAM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts, Maths and Medicine) has to offer.
The ESRC Centre for Population Change will be showcasing the following activities at the festival:
CPC Population Pyramids: Minecraft edition
We invite you to explore our Minecraft world to learn about Population Pyramids! Log onto our Minecraft Java server to explore the world we have created.
Population Pyramids are graphs used to illustrate the population structure of a particular place at a particular time. Players are able to explore different types of population pyramid, learning how to read what the pyramid says about the population now and what may have happened to the population in the past.
CPC Q&A: What is computer modelling and why do we use it?
What is modelling and why is it helpful? Computer models are used to simulate, predict estimate things that have or may happen. You may have learnt about them at school or heard of them on the news for example, models can tell us how effective wearing fabric masks can be during the Covid-19 pandemic.
In this series of videos CPC modelling experts explain how models simulate the behaviour of people in different environments and how understanding this can help inform society.
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Study Population Geography at University of Southampton
If you have enjoyed learning about human populations change and the causes and consequences of these changes, then a BSc in Population Geography might be for you!
Covering topics on migration, population growth, global health, inequality, and globalisation, these skills will allow you to pursue careers such as population analyst, regional planner or social researcher.
Visit the University of Southampton Population Geography course page for more details.
Thursday, February 25th 2021
CPC Webinar - A new look at the geography of housing careers in Great Britain (Seminars and lectures)

Rory Coulter, UCL, Department of Geography
Zoom
Thursday, February 25th 2021
13:00-14:00 GMT
This CPC webinar will be held on Thursday 25 February at 13:00 GMT. Rory Coulter, UCL, Department of Geography will be giving a talk entitled 'A new look at the geography of housing careers in Great Britain'.
Title: A new look at the geography of housing careers in Great Britain
Abstract: Housing inequality has been a major focus of UK public policy debates during the last decade. Much of the attention has centred on intergenerational disparities and in particular the tendency for recent cohorts of young adults to delay entry into homeownership. However, surprisingly little is known about the geography of housing careers and the ways these may have changed over time.
This presentation introduces ongoing project research examining spatial variation in housing careers across Great Britain. The talk has two dimensions. First, preliminary results from cross-sectional and longitudinal survey analysis will be presented. Second, the talk will report on the process of assembling, validating and analysing a new resource for geographical analysis of migration and housing careers. This is being created by repurposing a range of non-traditional data resources including (a) Electoral and Consumer Register data, (b) commercial data on private lettings from Zoopla and (c) administrative property transactions records compiled by the Land Registry/Registers of Scotland.
Registration: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZIucuGpqTssH9OQBKBl7ieXHIxiS9cDwP1O
Meeting Recording:
We will be recording the seminar and your participation in the meeting may be captured. If you do not wish to feature in the recording, please ensure your microphone and camera are turned off for the duration of the talk. The Q&A session will not be recorded.
Your Details:
We require your name and email to process the event registration. We use this information to collate the number of attendees at our seminars and produce get aggregate level statistics to justify our seminars to our funders. If you have any issues with the way your data is collected, please email us at cpc@soton.ac.uk. Further information about the way we manage data can be found on our website here: http://www.cpc.ac.uk/about_us/privacy_notice/
Tuesday, February 23rd 2021
Exploratory Meeting (Workshops)

Virtual
Tuesday, February 23rd 2021
13:00-14:00 GMT / 14:00-15:00 CET
On Tuesday, 23 February 2021, Population Europe will host a meeting between the Vice President of the European Commission for Democracy and Demography Dubravka Šuica, and leading demographers at the EU.
The purpose of this first of what is planned to be a regular series of meetings of the European Commission’s Vice-President for Democracy and Demography with European demography experts is: a) to fuel the European Commission’s reflection on initiatives in the field of demography on the basis of substantiated expertise and evidence; b) to identify, with the experts’ help, the most burning areas where initiatives on a European level would be necessary and of added value c) to feed ideas and themes into the Commission’s newly established internal demography networks which are conceived to support the work of the Vice-President.
Participants include:
- Gunnar Andersson
- Francesco Billari
- Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak
- Ivan Čipin
- Helga de Valk
- Jane C. Falkingham
- Juho Härkönen
- Wolfgang Lutz
- Melinda Mills
- Rainer Münz
- Zsolt Spéder
- Dubravka Šuica
- Magda Tomasini
- Emilio Zagheni
Friday, February 12th 2021
CPC Webinar - Carrying out rapid qualitative research during a pandemic: Emerging lessons from COVID-19 (Seminars and lectures)

Cecilia Vindrola, University College London
Zoom
Friday, February 12th 2021
14:00-15:00 GMT
Please note the change of start time - this webinar will now take place at 14:00 GMT.
This CPC webinar will be held on Friday 12 February at 14:00 GMT. Cecilia Vindrola, University College London will be giving a talk title entitled "Carrying out rapid qualitative research during a pandemic: Emerging lessons from COVID-19".
Title: Carrying out rapid qualitative research during a pandemic: Emerging lessons from COVID-19
Abstract:Social scientists have a robust history of contributing to better understandings of and responses to disease outbreaks. The implementation of qualitative research in the context of infectious epidemics, however, continues to lag behind in the delivery, credibility and timeliness of findings when compared to other research designs. The purpose of this seminar is to reflect on our experience of carrying out a study aimed at exploring healthcare delivery in the UK in the context of COVID-19. I will discuss the importance of qualitative data to inform evidence-based public health responses and provide a way forward to research teams who wish to implement similar rapid qualitative studies. I will reflect on the challenges of setting up research teams, obtaining ethical approval, collecting and analysing data in real-time and sharing actionable findings.
Bio
Cecilia Vindrola-Padros is a medical anthropologist interested in applied health research and the development of rapid approaches to research. She works across five interdisciplinary teams, applying anthropological theories and methods to study and improve healthcare delivery in the UK and abroad. She has written extensively on the use of rapid qualitative research and currently Co-Directs the Rapid Research Evaluation and Appraisal Lab (RREAL) with Dr Ginger Johnson. Cecilia works as a Senior Research Fellow in the Department of Targeted Intervention, UCL and as a Social Scientist at the NIAA Health Services Research Centre (HSRC), Royal College of Anaesthetists (RCoA). She is the past director of the Qualitative Health Research Network (QHRN) and a Fellow of the Society for Applied Anthropology (SfAA).
Registration: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZAudu6hqTotE9KdnWXTp7LeSZb9oiNQrjcQ
Meeting Recording:
We may be recording the seminar and your participation in the meeting may be captured. If you do not wish to feature in the recording, please ensure your microphone and camera are turned off for the duration of the talk. The Q&A session will not be recorded.
Your Details:
We require your name and email to process the event registration. We use this information to collate the number of attendees at our seminars and produce get aggregate level statistics to justify our seminars to our funders. If you have any issues with the way your data is collected, please email us at cpc@soton.ac.uk. Further information about the way we manage data can be found on our website here: http://www.cpc.ac.uk/about_us/privacy_notice/
Thursday, February 4th 2021
CPC Webinar - Studying health and migration using social media: tools for survey participant recruitment complement digital trace data (Seminars and lectures)

Emilio Zagheni, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research/University of Washington
Zoom
Thursday, February 4th 2021
12:00-13:00 GMT
This CPC webinar will be held on Thursday 04 February at 12:00 GMT. Emilio Zagheni, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and University of Washington, will be giving a talk entitled "Studying health and migration using social media: tools for survey participant recruitment complement digital trace data".
Title: Studying health and migration using social media: tools for survey participant recruitment complement digital trace data
Abstract: Passively-collected information about social media users as well as posts and related content have been increasingly used for demographic research related to health and migration. These digital traces, often made available via advertisement platforms, offer new insights into socio-demographic processes, but also have a number of imperfections and limitations. The same advertisement platforms can be used as a tool to rapidly recruit survey participants across countries and to reach hard-to-reach populations. This talk discusses recent work done at MPIDR to complement the two approaches. It concentrates on two main components: (i) assessing cultural assimilation of Mexican immigrants in the US via Facebook data, as well as via a Facebook migration survey that is about to be fielded; (ii) the Covid-19 Health Behavior Survey: an online opt-in survey based on targeted Facebook advertising campaigns across eight countries (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, United Kingdom, and the United States), that was conducted daily from March 13-August 12, resulting in 144,034 completed questionnaires. This survey collected information on people's health, attitudes, behaviors, and social contacts. The talk discusses methodological approaches to correct for biases and to combine digital trace data with survey estimates, as well as provides initial substantive results from these initiatives.
Registration: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZ0scOGtqjIqE9apraji3eguTWxb1cSlBfDO
Meeting Recording:
We may be recording the seminar and your participation in the meeting may be captured. If you do not wish to feature in the recording, please ensure your microphone and camera are turned off for the duration of the talk. The Q&A session will not be recorded.
Your Details:
We require your name and email to process the event registration. We use this information to collate the number of attendees at our seminars and produce get aggregate level statistics to justify our seminars to our funders. If you have any issues with the way your data is collected, please email us at cpc@soton.ac.uk. Further information about the way we manage data can be found on our website here: http://www.cpc.ac.uk/about_us/privacy_notice/
Tuesday, February 2nd 2021 - Thursday, February 4th 2021
PAA 2021 Applied Demography Conference (Conferences)

Virtual
Tuesday, February 2nd 2021
Tuesday, February 2nd 2021
CPC members will be presenting at the PAA virtual conference 02-04 February 2021.
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PAA is excited about providing applied demographers with a unique opportunity to participate in a conference built to showcase their work, strengthen their personal network, and to bring the applied demography community together. Join us virtually February 2-4, 2021, for this first-ever event! #PAA-Event
The entire conference will be virtual, and schedule times will be Eastern Standard (EST).
Starts: Feb 2, 2021 9:00 AM (ET)
Ends: Feb 4, 2021 5:00 PM (ET)
Thursday, January 28th 2021
CPC Webinar - Understanding Society COVID-19 Study (Seminars and lectures)

Michaela Benzeval, University of Essex
Zoom
Thursday, January 28th 2021
13:00-14:00 GMT
This CPC webinar will be held on Thursday 28 January at 13:00 GMT. Michaela Benzeval, University of Essex, will be giving a talk entitled "Understanding Society COVID-19 Study"
Title: Understanding Society COVID-19 Study
Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdown is the biggest shock to society since World War 2. Understanding Society: the UK Household Longitudinal Study, therefore mobilised itself very quickly to start collecting monthly data on how families across the UK have been affected by it. This presentation will describe the Understanding Society COVID-19 Study - its design, content, response rates and representativeness, breadth of use and impact. It will then present some findings from the Study on the mental health consequences of the pandemic for the population as a whole as well as specific vulnerable groups such as those shielding and carers.
Registration: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZwsceCqrTMiH9yDxVAnGpwE-j0FYpuoYIpT
Meeting Recording:
We may record the seminar and your participation in the meeting may be captured. If you do not wish to feature in the recording, please ensure your microphone and camera are turned off for the duration of the talk. The Q&A session will not be recorded.
Your Details:
We require your name and email to process the event registration. We use this information to collate the number of attendees at our seminars and produce get aggregate level statistics to justify our seminars to our funders. If you have any issues with the way your data is collected, please email us at cpc@soton.ac.uk. Further information about the way we manage data can be found on our website here: http://www.cpc.ac.uk/about_us/privacy_notice/
Monday, January 25th 2021
Beyond COVID-19: Population Challenges Ahead (Public engagement events)
Dr Michael Meister, Prof. Dr Pearl Dykstra, Prof. Dr Jakub Bijak, Prof. Dr Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak, Dr Birte Fähnrich, Sonja Kastilan, Prof. Dr Wolfgang Lutz, Prof. Dr Melinda Mills, Prof. Dr Lothar H. Wieler
Zoom
Monday, January 25th 2021
10:30-12:00, Berlin time
Prof. Dr Jakub Bijak, will be participating in this Population Europe discussion event on "Beyond Covid-19: Population Challenges Ahead".
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Beyond COVID-19: Population Challenges Ahead
Discussion Event with
Dr Michael Meister (Parliamentary State Secretary to the Federal Minister of Education and Research / Member of the German Bundestag, Berlin) and
Prof. Dr Pearl Dykstra (Professor of Empirical Sociology at Erasmus University Rotterdam / Member of the Group of Chief Scientific Advisors to the Cabinet of European Commissioners, 2015-2020)
Monday, 25 January 2021, 10:30-12:00, Berlin time
Online via Zoom (see below), translation service in English will be offered.
Topic: Throughout the current COVID-19 pandemic, researchers have been widely requested to contribute scientific evidence about various aspects of the pandemic, including their long-term social consequences. However, in many cases, advice had to be given tentatively and with an understanding of uncertainty due to not only a lack of sufficient data but also to the nature of science itself. What are the lessons learnt from previous months? How has the role of research in the policy arena changed during the pandemic? How can we increase trust in the public role of scientists even if we have to deal with uncertainties? How can we ensure that the expertise of researchers is readily available for evidence-based decision-making in future crises?
Participants:
Prof. Dr Jakub Bijak, Professor of Statistical Demography at the University of Southampton, Principal Investigator of the EU-funded project “QuantMig: Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy”
Prof. Dr Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak, Professor in the Institute of Statistics and Demography at Warsaw School of Economics, Deputy Minister of Labour and Social Policy of Poland (2008-2009)
Dr Birte Fähnrich, Coordinator of the Interdisciplinary Research Group "Implications of Digitization for the Quality of Science Communication", Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences and Humanities
Sonja Kastilan, Head of Science Section, Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung
Prof. Dr Wolfgang Lutz, Founding Director, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital / Professor of Demography, Department of Demography, University of Vienna
Prof. Dr Melinda Mills, Director of the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford / Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, UK Government Office of Science
Prof. Dr Lothar H. Wieler (tbc), President of the Robert Koch Institute, Berlin / Member of the German National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina
Please register here.
You will receive the respective Zoom link when we get closer to the meeting.
Friday, January 22nd 2021
Femquant & CPC Athena Swan Webinar - Reconsidered Disadvantage in the United States: An Intersectional Analysis (Seminars and lectures)

Dominique Green, University of St Andrews
Zoom
Friday, January 22nd 2021
12:00-13:00 GMT
This CPC Athena Swan webinar will be held jointly with Femquant (https://femquant.squarespace.com/) on Friday 22 January at 12:00 GMT. Dominique Green, University of St Andrews will be giving a talk entitled "Reconsidered Disadvantage in the United States: An Intersectional Analysis".
Title: Reconsidered Disadvantage in the United States: An Intersectional Analysis
Abstract: Poverty and disadvantage in the United States is commonly defined in terms of low income. This definition and its subsequent measurement neglects the multidimensional nature of the phenomena. Most research acknowledges that this reductionist measure is insufficient but there have been few attempts at quantifying US poverty and disadvantage multidimensionally. In this seminar, I will draw on the European social exclusion literature and apply the Bristol Social Exclusion Matrix to indicators from the US Census Bureau produced American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample - with a sample size of 3 million addresses - in order to uncover factors of disadvantage in the United States. Additionally, I will discuss the relationship between these dimensions and sociodemographic characteristics primarily via the use of intersectionality as an analytic tool. This research explores how the intersection between race and gender better informs understandings of the experience of disadvantage at the individual level than an exploration of gender alone, particularly for Black women. Overall, using a conceptualisation of disadvantage not previously applied to the US, the research quantitatively shows that income is just one piece of a complex social issue and that women, minorities, and those at the intersection of those characteristics face disadvantage across dimensions.
Registration: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZIlceqoqjkqHdfxvgsYrfH_1CHzmHIKycaS
Meeting Recording:
We may be recording the seminar and your participation in the meeting may be captured. If you do not wish to feature in the recording, please ensure your microphone and camera are turned off for the duration of the talk. The Q&A session will not be recorded.
Your Details:
We require your name and email to process the event registration. We use this information to collate the number of attendees at our seminars and produce get aggregate level statistics to justify our seminars to our funders. If you have any issues with the way your data is collected, please email us at cpc@soton.ac.uk. Further information about the way we manage data can be found on our website here: http://www.cpc.ac.uk/about_us/privacy_notice/
Saturday, January 16th 2021 - Saturday, February 6th 2021
Meeting of the Scottish Parliament Citizens' Panel on COVID-19 (Workshops)
Virtual
Saturday, January 16th 2021
Saturday, January 16th 2021
David Bell was a member of the Citizen's panel advising the Scottish Government.
Thursday, January 14th 2021
CPC Webinar - Developing linkage ready data on Looked After Children for a new data linkage infrastructure in Scotland (Seminars and lectures)
Cecilia (Celia) Macintyre, Scottish Government
Zoom
Thursday, January 14th 2021
13:00-14:00 GMT
Cecilia (Celia) Macintyre from the Scottish Government will be presenting on her work with the Scottish Centre for Administrative data research.
Title: Developing linkage ready data on Looked After Children for a new data linkage infrastructure in Scotland
Abstract: ADR Scotland is a partnership between Scottish Government and Scottish Centre for Administrative Research (SCADR). The partnership is working to enhance the data linkage infrastructure in Scotland to allow the long-term holding of de-identified datasets within a secure location for research and data linkage purposes.
The data acquisition team have produced the longitudinal Looked After Children dataset, which can track an individual's sequence of placements through the care system. This innovative work links eleven years of data, giving an understanding of the possible pathways enabling linkage to other outcomes to better understand this population.
The presentation will outline the work to change of the infrastructure, and the approach to producing a linkage ready dataset, and the accompanying documentation produced to help users and ensure transparency of the process. An important aspect of this is work with partners - local authority, academic and other public bodies - to improve the quality of the data used in this project.
Registration: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZcvdOGvrz4uHd2N_a9Ll4B7a9OwZTYnRJGO
Meeting Recording:
We may be recording the seminar and your participation in the meeting may be captured. If you do not wish to feature in the recording, please ensure your microphone and camera are turned off for the duration of the talk. The Q&A session will not be recorded.
Your Details:
We require your name and email to process the event registration. We use this information to collate the number of attendees at our seminars and produce get aggregate level statistics to justify our seminars to our funders. If you have any issues with the way your data is collected, please email us at cpc@soton.ac.uk. Further information about the way we manage data can be found on our website here: http://www.cpc.ac.uk/about_us/privacy_notice/
Thursday, December 17th 2020
CPC Webinar - Understanding the lives of immigrants and their descendants: From selection to adaptation (Seminars and lectures)

Ben Wilson, Stockholm University and London School of Economics
Zoom
Thursday, December 17th 2020
13:00-14:00 GMT
This CPC webinar will be held on Thursday 17 December at 13:00 GMT.
Title: Understanding the lives of immigrants and their descendants: From selection to adaptation
Abstract: In this seminar, I will discuss some of the most important problems that social scientists face when studying immigrants and their descendants. I will focus on: (a) the challenges of testing theories and hypotheses, (b) the problems of generalisation, and (c) future directions for empirical research. Throughout the seminar, I will provide an overview of some recent socio-demographic research on immigrants and their descendants, with a focus on several of my own studies as examples from the literature. I will show how immigrants are selectively different from those who remain in their origin countries, how their socio-economic lives adapt after arrival, and how their demographic behaviours change across generations. Reflecting on what we know, I will then propose some directions for future research that I hope will help us to gain a deeper understanding of the lives of immigrants and their descendants. My aim is that this will facilitate a constructive discussion and debate, both during the seminar and afterwards.
Registration: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZYqf-6srj4pH90iPXUWCA5fKKK5uMZLndBI
Meeting Recording:
We will be recording the seminar and your participation in the meeting may be captured. If you do not wish to feature in the recording, please ensure your microphone and camera are turned off for the duration of the talk. The Q&A session will not be recorded.
Your Details:
We require your name and email to process the event registration. We use this information to collate the number of attendees at our seminars and produce get aggregate level statistics to justify our seminars to our funders. If you have any issues with the way your data is collected, please email us at cpc@soton.ac.uk. Further information about the way we manage data can be found on our website here: http://www.cpc.ac.uk/about_us/privacy_notice/
Monday, December 14th 2020 - Friday, December 18th 2020
Winter Simulation Conference 2020 (Conferences)

Prof Jakub Bijak
Virtual
Monday, December 14th 2020
Monday, December 14th 2020
Winter Simulation conference is going virtual for 2020. Find out more: http://meetings2.informs.org/wordpress/wsc2020/
Prof Jakub Bijak will be presenting on work with Philip A. Higham, Jason Hilton, Martin Hinsch, Sarah Nurse, and Toby Prike; Oliver Reinhardt; Peter WF Smith; and Adelinde M. Uhrmacher in session 'Simulation for Global Challenges' on Thursday 17 December.
Thursday 12:00pm-1:30pm
Technical Session · Simulation for Global Challenges
Simulation for Global Challenges
Chair: Stewart Robinson (Loughborough University)
Modelling Migration: Decisions, Processes and Outcomes
Jakub Bijak, Philip A. Higham, Jason Hilton, Martin Hinsch, Sarah Nurse, and Toby Prike (University of Southampton); Oliver Reinhardt (University of Rostock); Peter WF Smith (University of Southampton); and Adelinde M. Uhrmacher (University of Rostock)
Abstract
Human migration is uncertain and complex, and some of its distinct features, such as migration routes, can emerge and change very rapidly. Agency of various actors is one key reason for why migration eludes attempts at its theoretical description, explanation and prediction. To address the complexity challenges through simulation models, which would coherently link micro-level decisions with macro-level processes, a coherent model design and construction process is needed. Here, we present such a process alongside its five building blocks: an agent-based simulation of migration route formation, resembling the recent asylum migration to Europe; an evaluation framework for migration data; psychological experiments eliciting decisions under uncertainty; the choice of a programming language and modelling formalisms; and statistical analysis with Bayesian meta-modelling based on Gaussian Process assumptions and experimental design principles. This process allows to identify knowledge advancements that can be achieved through modelling, and to elucidate the remaining knowledge gaps.
Friday, December 11th 2020
CPC Webinar - The spatial diffusion of nonmarital childbearing in Belgium (1968-2017) (Seminars and lectures)

Yoann Doignon, UCLouvain, Centre for Demographic Research
Zoom
Friday, December 11th 2020
12:00-13:00 GMT
Please note the change of date - this webinar will now be held on Friday 11 December.
This CPC webinar will be held on Friday 11 December. Yoann Doignon, Centre for Demographic Research, Université, will be giving a talk entitled 'The spatial diffusion of nonmarital childbearing in Belgium (1968-2017)'
Title:The spatial diffusion of nonmarital childbearing in Belgium (1968-2017)
Abstract: This presentation focuses on the spatial dynamics of nonmarital births in Belgium. The objective of the analysis is to determine the extent to which the spread of nonmarital births follows a process of spatial diffusion. For this purpose, both a detailed geographical level (municipalities) and a long study period (50 years: 1968-2017) are used, which is the originality of this study. Mapping is used to draw up the evolution of the spatial pattern of nonmarital births in Belgium. In a further step, we use spatial panel models to measure if a spatial diffusion effect persists, taking into account the characteristics (demographic, socio-economic and cultural) of territories.
Registration: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZAsf-iuqj8tHN2iu4PgWkQNFPGyswkki7kE
Meeting Recording:
We will be recording the seminar and your participation in the meeting may be captured. If you do not wish to feature in the recording, please ensure your microphone and camera are turned off for the duration of the talk. The Q&A session will not be recorded.
Your Details:
We require your name and email to process the event registration. We use this information to collate the number of attendees at our seminars and produce get aggregate level statistics to justify our seminars to our funders. If you have any issues with the way your data is collected, please email us at cpc@soton.ac.uk. Further information about the way we manage data can be found on our website here: http://www.cpc.ac.uk/about_us/privacy_notice/
Friday, December 11th 2020
QuantMig Webinar: Translating Migration Theory Into Empirical Propositions (Seminars and lectures)
Jørgen Carling, Mathias Czaika, Marta Bivand Erdal, Jakub Bijak
Online
Friday, December 11th 2020
14:00 - 15:00 CET
Sign up for the webinar here: https://bit.ly/38YQWGJ
With:
- Jørgen Carling, Research Professor of Migration and Transnationalism studies at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO),
- Mathias Czaika, Head of Department and Professor in Migration and Globalisation, Danube University Krems, Austria
- Marta Bivand Erdal, Research Director and Research Professor in Migration Studies at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).
- Moderated by Jakub Bijak, joint Head of Department of Social Statistics and Demography Professor of Statistical Demography at the University of Southampton
Topic: Migration studies is often described as both a fragmented and largely under-theorised research field. However, through the triangulation of various theoretical accounts and concepts, propositions that address diverse and multifaceted migration patterns and regularities can be developed. This exercise has been done in the framework of the H2020 QuantMig project. This webinar introduces the logic behind moving from a theoretical approach to empirical propositions that have a strong evidence base. It will consist of a presentation that will first consider the very idea of migration theory, and second will outline the ten propositions that can be empirically approached from different angles and turned into hypotheses. Following the presentation, participants will have the opportunity to ask questions and offer their reflections on how these propositions can be applied to understanding migration.
Thursday, December 3rd 2020
CPC Webinar - Utilizing population register data to understand socioeconomic determinants of COVID-19 mortality: The case of Sweden (Seminars and lectures)

Gunnar Andersson,Stockholm University
Zoom
Thursday, December 3rd 2020
13:00-14:00 GMT
This CPC webinar will be held on Thursday 03 December at 13:00 GMT.Gunnar Andersson, Professor in Demography and Head of the Stockholm University Demography Unit (SUDA) will be giving a talk entitled "Utilizing population register data to understand socioeconomic determinants of COVID-19 mortality: The case of Sweden".
Title: Utilizing population register data to understand socioeconomic determinants of COVID-19 mortality: The case of Sweden
Abstract: As the COVID-19 pandemic enters its second wave, global deaths continue to rise. This holds for countries across Europe, including Sweden which was particularly hard hit in the first wave of the pandemic. Owing to the high quality and coverage of Swedish population register and administrative data, Sweden offers unique possibilities for more in-depth research on the role of different socio-demographic factors in COVID-19 mortality. In our project, we use data on all recorded COVID-19 deaths in Sweden up to May 7 2020 linked to high-quality and accurate individual-level background data from different registers. Using individual-level survival analysis we demonstrate that being male, having less disposable income, a lower education level, not being married, and being an immigrant from a low- or middle-income country all independently predict a higher risk of death from COVID-19. We also observe differences in mortality between people with different household arrangements and work-place characteristics. The main finding is that COVID-19 exerts a disproportionally heavy burden on the more disadvantaged members of society.
Registration: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZUtf--vrz0rGtZgl2_UoJQdPHhUoDuPh-_uZ
Meeting Recording:
We will be recording the seminar and your participation in the meeting may be captured. If you do not wish to feature in the recording, please ensure your microphone and camera are turned off for the duration of the talk. The Q&A session will not be recorded.
Your Details:
We require your name and email to process the event registration. We use this information to collate the number of attendees at our seminars and produce get aggregate level statistics to justify our seminars to our funders. If you have any issues with the way your data is collected, please email us at cpc@soton.ac.uk. Further information about the way we manage data can be found on our website here: http://www.cpc.ac.uk/about_us/privacy_notice/
Thursday, December 3rd 2020 - Friday, December 4th 2020
HumMingBird Expert workshop 'Mind the gap: critical perspectives on migration theories and data' (Seminars and lectures)

Online
Thursday, December 3rd 2020
Thursday, December 3rd 2020
09:00 - 17:00 CET
Jakub Bijak will be presenting at this expert meeting on 03 December 2020:
11:25-11:40 CET Jakub Bijak - Towards quantitative scenarios of European Migration: From uncertainty to knowledge
Find out more and watch the live stream on the HumMingBird project website.
Associated Downloads
Thursday, November 26th 2020
CPC Webinar - Britain's first demographic transition: an integrated geography (Seminars and lectures)

Alice Reid, University of Cambridge
Zoom
Thursday, November 26th 2020
13:00-14:00 GMT
This CPC webinar will be held on Thursday 26 November at 13:00 GMT. Alice Reid, University of Cambridge will be giving a talk entitled "Britain's first demographic transition: an integrated geography"
Title: Britain's first demographic transition: an integrated geography
Abstract: This talk will introduce our new ESRC-funded project which aims to re-examine the population history of Great Britain not as the story of as two, or three, separate countries, but as a spectrum of experiences over time and space, providing exciting new perspectives on, and understanding of, the demographic history of these islands. The project is still at an early stage, but builds on a previous project on fertility in Victorian England and Wales, and the talk will provide some results and conclusions from that study including a reappraisal of the decline in fertility during the first demographic transition. The new project incorporates Scottish data as well as considering a wider range of demographic processes, and the presentation will examine the challenges and opportunities of working with historical Scottish micro-data and melding that with the data and results from England and Wales.
Registration: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZEkdOGhrDIoEtEAVEWdAYBfa_zmlAmL6hZ_
Meeting Recording:
We will be recording the seminar and your participation in the meeting may be captured. If you do not wish to feature in the recording, please ensure your microphone and camera are turned off for the duration of the talk. The Q&A session will not be recorded.
Your Details:
We require your name and email to process the event registration. We use this information to collate the number of attendees at our seminars and produce get aggregate level statistics to justify our seminars to our funders. If you have any issues with the way your data is collected, please email us at cpc@soton.ac.uk. Further information about the way we manage data can be found on our website here: http://www.cpc.ac.uk/about_us/privacy_notice/
Tuesday, November 24th 2020
Pandemic Response & Data Driven Decision Making: with Professor Andy Tatem (Public engagement events)

Professor Adny Tatem, WorldPop. Professor Jane Falkingham, Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences, and Francesca Barnes, University Council.
Webinar
Tuesday, November 24th 2020
18:00-19:00
In conversation with Professor Andy Tatem, a virtual discussion followed by a live Q&A.
Register: [https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/pandemic-response-data-driven-decision-making-with-professor-andy-tatem-tickets-128265971975]|https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/pandemic-response-data-driven-decision-making-with-professor-andy-tatem-tickets-128265971975
The University of Southampton is delighted to invite you to join Professor Andy Tatem on Tuesday 24 November, for an insightful discussion about the impact that data has in the fight against COVID-19.
Co-hosted by Professor Jane Falkingham, Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences and Director of the Centre for Population Change, and Francesca Barnes, University Council, this virtual event will explore how we can harness data to influence our decisions and planning.
This event will explore what the analyses tell us about the early spread of COVID-19 within and beyond China and how data can help us design better strategies to control COVID-19.
Andy is Professor of spatial demography and epidemiology at the University of Southampton and is the Director of WorldPop and Flowminder, leading a group of more than 50 researchers and data scientists. Andys research has led to pioneering approaches to the use and integration of satellite, survey, cell phone and census data to map the distributions of vulnerable populations for disease, disaster and development applications. Andy runs international collaborations with national governments, UN agencies and data providers, and leads multiple research and operational projects funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, World Bank, Clinton Health Access Initiative and others.
This virtual discussion will be followed by a live Q&A, where you are invited to ask your questions to the panel. If you would like to submit your questions in advance, please email them to events@soton.ac.uk.
Friday, November 13th 2020
Webinar: Yves Zenou (Seminars and lectures)
Yves Zenou, Monash University
Zoom
Friday, November 13th 2020
13:00 UTC+11 (Melbourne) / 02:00 GMT
Yves Zenou will be presenting on 'Mixing in Early Childhood', a new paper with Vincent Boucher, Semih Tumen, Michael Vlassopoulos and Jackline Wahba, on Friday 13 Nov at 1pm Melbourne time via Zoom at https://auckland.zoom.us/j/95956547447?pwd=WFJOdkJQSHkrdE9uNkUrMWV4V2Vadz09
Slide available as a file download.
Associated Downloads
Thursday, November 12th 2020
ESRC Celebrating Impact Finalist Ceremony (Public engagement events)

Zoom
Thursday, November 12th 2020
14:00-15:45 GMT
Professor Jane Falkingham OBE and CPC colleagues have been shortlisted for this year’s Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) Celebrating Impact Prize for Outstanding Public Policy Impact.
Join the ESRC Celebrating Impact Prize finalist ceremony, where you can watch a short film on our outstanding policy impact and find out who the winners are, on 12 November at 14:00-15:45.
Monday, November 9th 2020
Demography and the Coronavirus Pandemic. What have we learned so far? (Other)
Julia Miklai
Online
Monday, November 9th 2020
Julia Mikolia was participated in the Population Europe High-Level Expert Meeting: Demography and the Coronavirus Pandemic. What have we learned so far?
Saturday, November 7th 2020 - Sunday, November 22nd 2020
CPC Population Pyramids: Minecraft Edition (Public engagement events)

Virtual
Saturday, November 7th 2020
Saturday, November 7th 2020
We invite you to explore our Minecraft world to learn about Population Pyramids as part of the University of Southampton's Human Worlds Digital Festival and the ESRC Festival of Social Sciences.
Population Pyramids are graphs used to illustrate the population structure of a particular place at a particular time. You will see some examples of different populations in this popular format. Using your Minecraft character to explore the area, you will learn to read the graphs.
Download the file below to find out how to connect to the game (you will need a copy of Minecraft Java). The server will be open from 07-22 November 2020.
To get started, use Java/PC Minecraft v1.16.4 to connect to multiplayer server "CPCpopulation.mc.gg"
Associated Downloads
Friday, November 6th 2020
Public webinar B: Forecasting migration (Public engagement events)

Prof Jakub Bijak, Prof Laura Hammond, Prof Richard Black, Jon Simmons,
Webinar
Friday, November 6th 2020
11:00-12:30 GMT
oin leading experts at UK Parliament to find out more about migration. What are the economic and social aspects? What do the models say? Public and closed webinars will be taking place throughout November 2020.
Register on Eventbrite
Migration is multidimensional, complex and uncertain. In the UK, the topic of migration is one of the most debated issues facing both policymakers and the British public. Many members of the UK Parliament are deeply interested in migration and its implications, not only for the economy, but also for society and local communities. However, people have different opinions on migration, which is similarly reflected among policymakers. As the Government plans its new immigration policy, it is extremely important to bring evidence and impartial independent research to the UK Parliament to help inform good policy debate and contribute to well-informed policies in advance of upcoming legislation scrutiny.
In November, a series of online public events and closed briefings will bring together UK parliamentarians and policy officials with responsibility for migration, representatives from UK universities and the third sector.
The first two webinars are open to the public and anyone can register.
The final three webinars are closed briefings and will only be open to Parliamentarians and Parliamentary staff. While anyone can register their interest for the closed briefings and ensure they receive a summary of the event after its completion, only those registered with a @parliament.uk email address will be invited to attend on the day.
6 November 2020, 11:00 to 12:30
Public webinar B: Forecasting migration
Prof Jakub Bijak, Joint Head of Department of Social Statistics and Demography, University of Southampton
Prof Laura Hammond, Head of the London International Development Centres Migration Leadership Team, School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS)
Prof Richard Black, Pro-Vice-Chancellor, Head of the College of Social Sciences, University of Birmingham
Jon Simmons, Deputy Director for Analysis on Migration and Border Policy, Home Office
CPC Staff will also be speaking in Public webinar A: Economy, society and migration on 3 November 11:00-12:30.
Wednesday, November 4th 2020 - Thursday, November 5th 2020
HKIAPS: Mobilizing Regional Collaboration in Policy Research (Conferences)

Keynote: Danny Quah, Jane Falkingham & Cai Fang
Zoom
Wednesday, November 4th 2020
Wednesday, November 4th 2020
The Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies 30th Anniversary Conference, "Mobilizing Regional Collaboration in Policy Research" will be held online on zoom in November 2020.
CPC Director Professor Jane Falkingham will be presenting Keynote Session 2 "Demographic Change in the Asia-Pacific Region and it's Implications for Policy" on Wednesday 4th November 2020 at 15:00 HKT (7:00 GMT).
Full Programme and Register: https://cloud.itsc.cuhk.edu.hk/webform/view.php?id=11025035
Tuesday, November 3rd 2020
ABM & CPC Webinar - An agent-based modelling approach to account for social interactions in demography (Seminars and lectures)

Prof. Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Vienna Institute of Demography
Webinar
Tuesday, November 3rd 2020
13:00-14:00 GMT
This event is also part of the "Short course on Agent-based modelling for social research".
This ABM & CPC webinar will be held on Tuesday 03 November at 13:00 GMT. Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, executive director of the Vienna Institute of Demography at the Austrian Academy of Sciences, will be giving a talk entitled An agent-based modelling approach to account for social interactions in demography.
To attend the CPC webinar, please register via zoom: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZEudeqorTstGNfGhtWSyHKNL6FPMi_9EZCO
Title: An agent-based modelling approach to account for social interactions in demography
Abstract:
Demographic behaviour cannot be explained and understood in isolation from the social network one is linked to (e.g. Åberg 2003; Montgomery and Casterline 1996). These networks may consist of family members, friends and other peer groups which will have an impact through social learning and social influence on each other. However, the formalisation of such network effects to explain individual demographic behaviour lags behind the empirical evidence or is often simplified in terms of macro-level diffusion mechanisms that do not allow understanding the mechanisms of social network effects from the bottom up. Agent-based models allow to integrate such network effects into models of individual demographic decision processes and to build up the macro-level demographic patterns (e.g. aggregate fertility rates, marriage rates, etc.) from the bottom up.
Meeting Recording:
We will be recording the seminar and your participation in the meeting may be captured. If you do not wish to feature in the recording, please ensure your microphone and camera are turned off for the duration of the talk. The Q&A session will not be recorded.
Your Details:
We require your name and email to process the event registration. We use this information to collate the number of attendees at our seminars and produce get aggregate level statistics to justify our seminars to our funders. If you have any issues with the way your data is collected, please email us at cpc@soton.ac.uk. Further information about the way we manage data can be found on our website here: http://www.cpc.ac.uk/about_us/privacy_notice/
Tuesday, November 3rd 2020
Public webinar A: Economy, society and migration (Public engagement events)

Jean-Christophe Dumont, Prof Jane Falkingham, Prof Brian Bell, Becca Briggs
Webinar
Tuesday, November 3rd 2020
11:00-12:30 GMT
Join leading experts at UK Parliament to find out more about migration. What are the economic and social aspects? What do the models say? Public and closed webinars will be taking place throughout November 2020.
Register on Eventbrite
Migration is multidimensional, complex and uncertain. In the UK, the topic of migration is one of the most debated issues facing both policymakers and the British public. Many members of the UK Parliament are deeply interested in migration and its implications, not only for the economy, but also for society and local communities. However, people have different opinions on migration, which is similarly reflected among policymakers. As the Government plans its new immigration policy, it is extremely important to bring evidence and impartial independent research to the UK Parliament to help inform good policy debate and contribute to well-informed policies in advance of upcoming legislation scrutiny.
In November, a series of online public events and closed briefings will bring together UK parliamentarians and policy officials with responsibility for migration, representatives from UK universities and the third sector.
The first two webinars are open to the public and anyone can register.
The final three webinars are closed briefings and will only be open to Parliamentarians and Parliamentary staff. While anyone can register their interest for the closed briefings and ensure they receive a summary of the event after its completion, only those registered with a @parliament.uk email address will be invited to attend on the day.
3 November 2020, 11:00 to 12:30
Public webinar A: Economy, society and migration
Jean-Christophe Dumont, Head of Migration Division, OECD
Prof Jane Falkingham, Director of ESRC Centre for Population Change, University of Southampton
Prof Brian Bell, Kings College London, Chair of the Migration Advisory Committee
Becca Briggs, Migration Statistics Division, Office for National Statistics
CPC Staff will also be speaking in Public webinar B: Forecasting migration on 6 November 11:00-12:30.
Tuesday, November 3rd 2020 - Wednesday, November 25th 2020
Short course on Agent-based modelling for social research (Workshops)

Online
Tuesday, November 3rd 2020
Tuesday, November 3rd 2020
Please note revised dates for this course: 03 - 25 November
The ERC Bayesian Agent-based Population Studies project team, based at the University of Southampton and the University of Rostock, in collaboration with the ESRC Centre for Population Change and the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, are delighted to announce a call for applications for a short training course "Agent-based modelling for social research".
The main aims of the course are to familiarise the participants with the most recent advances in building, analysing and documenting agent-based models of social processes. The course is aimed at PhD level students and early career researchers with prior experience with coding and interest in computational modelling in social science.
Applications have now closed. For specific queries, please email abm2020@soton.ac.uk.
Preliminary programme (the main live sessions will take place at 13:00-15:00 GMT)
• Day 1 (Tue, 3 November) - Live sessions, with a welcome and an open keynote lecture
• Day 2 (Wed, 4 November) - Live sessions, with pre-recorded background videos and reading
• Day 9 (Wed, 11 November) - Live sessions, with pre-recorded background videos and reading
• Day 16 (Wed, 18 November) - Live sessions, with pre-recorded background videos and reading
• Day 23 (Wed, 25 November) - Live sessions, with stock-taking, summary and farewell
Thursday, October 29th 2020
CPC Webinar - The link between previous life trajectories and a later life outcome: A feature selection approach (Seminars and lectures)

Matthias Studer, University of Geneva,
Zoom
Thursday, October 29th 2020
12:00-13:00 GMT
This CPC webinar will be held on Thursday 29 October at 12:00 GMT. Matthias Studer, University of Geneva, will be giving a talk entitled, "The link between previous life trajectories and a later life outcome: A feature selection approach".
Provisional title: The link between previous life trajectories and a later life outcome: A feature selection approach
Abstract: Several studies have investigated the link between a previous trajectory and a given outcome later on in life. Trajectories are complex objects. Identifying which aspects of the trajectories are relevant is of primary interest in terms both of prediction and testing specific theories.
In this work, we propose an innovative approach based on data mining feature selection algorithms. The approach works in two steps. We start by automatically extracting several properties of the sequences. Using a life course approach, we focus here on features related to three key aspects of the life course: sequencing, timing and duration. Then, in a second step, we use feature selection algorithms to identify the most relevant properties associated with the outcome. We discuss the use of two features selection approaches, namely random forest (Boruta) and a LASSO (Stability Selection). We also discuss the inclusion of control variable such as socio-demographic characteristics of the respondent in this selection process. The proposed approach is illustrated through a study of the effects of family and work trajectories between age 20 and 40 on women's earning in mid-life.
Registration: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZAuceurqD0iH9L8G_dYdfUKOdEcqoXmr0FK
Meeting Recording:
We will be recording the seminar and your participation in the meeting may be captured. If you do not wish to feature in the recording, please ensure your microphone and camera are turned off for the duration of the talk. The Q&A session will not be recorded.
Your Details:
We require your name and email to process the event registration. We use this information to collate the number of attendees at our seminars and produce get aggregate level statistics to justify our seminars to our funders. If you have any issues with the way your data is collected, please email us at cpc@soton.ac.uk. Further information about the way we manage data can be found on our website here: http://www.cpc.ac.uk/about_us/privacy_notice/
Tuesday, October 27th 2020
Is healthy immigrant a wealthy immigrant? Migrant women's reproductive health in Finland in 2000-17 (Seminars and lectures)
Heini Vaisanen
University of Southampton Family Research Theme Lunch Meeting
Tuesday, October 27th 2020
Vaisanen, Heini, Remes, Hanna and Martikainen, Pekka: Is healthy immigrant a wealthy immigrant? Migrant women's reproductive health in Finland in 2000-17. Family Lunch Seminar 27 Oct 2020
Monday, October 26th 2020
Managing Global Management Challenges (Seminars and lectures)
Prof. Jane Falkingham, Prof. Sabu Padmadas, Dr. Rob Angell, Prof. Paurav Shukla
Webinar
Monday, October 26th 2020
3:30-5:30pm UTC+5:30
CPC Director Prof. Jane Falkingham and CPC associate Prof. Sabu Padmadas were invited to the Ahmedabad Management Association's Open Forum Lectures webinar on "Managing Global Management Challenges" as distinguished panel members.
Friday, October 23rd 2020
CPC Webinar - Estimating Total Fertility from the Shape of the Age Pyramid: Bayesian models and applications (Seminars and lectures)

Carl Schmertmann, Florida State University
Zoom
Friday, October 23rd 2020
14:00-15:00 BST
This CPC webinar will be held on Friday 23 October at 14:00 BST. Carl Schmertmann, Professor of Economics at Florida State University and former Editor of Demographic Research, will be giving a talk entitled, "Estimating Total Fertility from the Shape of the Age Pyramid: Bayesian models and applications".
Title: Estimating Total Fertility from the Shape of the Age Pyramid: Bayesian models and applications
Abstract:When vital event registration is missing or inadequate, it is possible to approximate a population's total fertility (TFR) from its age-sex distribution. For example, if child mortality is low then TFR is often close to seven times the child/woman ratio (CWR), the number of 0-4 year olds per 15-49-year-old woman. We analyse the formal relationship between CWR and TFR to identify sources of uncertainty in indirect estimates. We construct a Bayesian model for the statistical distribution of TFR conditional on the population's age-sex structure, in which unknown demographic quantities in the standard approximation are parameters with prior distributions. We apply the model to produce first-ever estimates of TFR for several hundred indigenous populations in Brazil.
Registration: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZMpcemoqzguHtAmoyW_wl7Kqbeyqi8nVQkT
Meeting Recording:
We will be recording the seminar and your participation in the meeting may be captured. If you do not wish to feature in the recording, please ensure your microphone and camera are turned off for the duration of the talk. The Q&A session will not be recorded.
Your Details:
We require your name and email to process the event registration. We use this information to collate the number of attendees at our seminars and produce get aggregate level statistics to justify our seminars to our funders. If you have any issues with the way your data is collected, please email us at cpc@soton.ac.uk. Further information about the way we manage data can be found on our website here: http://www.cpc.ac.uk/about_us/privacy_notice/
Thursday, October 22nd 2020
SUDA Demographic Colloquium: Nicholas Campisi, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Seminars and lectures)

Nicholas Campisi, CPC, UoS & MPIDR
Zoom-ID 677 6680 2564
Thursday, October 22nd 2020
14:00-15:30 BST
A spatial perspective on Nordic fertility trends: the role of economic and social uncertainty in fertility decline
Open to the public - all welcome
Online via Zoom (and in B800): Zoom-ID 677 6680 2564
Wednesday, October 14th 2020 - Friday, October 16th 2020
18th Annual Meeting of the European Network for the Sociological and Demographic Study of Divorce (Conferences)

Niels Blom and Brienna Perelli-Harris
Cologne/Optional
Wednesday, October 14th 2020
Wednesday, October 14th 2020
Niels Blom and Brienna Perelli-Harris will be presenting Is there a "bar" for relationship quality? Examining the association between relationship happiness, economic conditions, and family transitions in the UK
Brienna Perelli-Harris is a keynote speaker: Comparing separation and divorce across countries: Perks and Pitfalls
https://divcon2020.uni-koeln.de/sites/divcon2020/user_upload/Divorce_Conference_2020_Prel_Program.pdf
Tuesday, September 29th 2020
National EMN Conference 2020: Forecasting the Future of Global Migration (Conferences)

Vienna, Austria and Online
Tuesday, September 29th 2020
09:00-17:00
Jakub Bijak will be presenting Forecasting International Migration: Dealing with Uncertainty Across a Range of Time Horizons at the National EMN Conference 2020: Forecasting the Future of Global Migration.
The objective of the conference is to provide a critical reflection and a differentiated understanding of future migration scenarios and proactive migration policies. It will provide an overview of existing models, studies and tools to predict and anticipate migration developments, including their underlying assumptions and key results. Finally, the event will discuss how migration predictions can best inform policies and how policy makers can make use of predictive methodologies.
The speakers include international migration researchers, national and European policy makers with experience in developing and applying migration forecasts and scenarios, as well as representatives from policy think tanks.
You can join the conference in Vienna or participate online. Your participation is free of charge. If you are interested, please send an email with your contact details to emnaustria@iom.int. More info and full programme: https://www.emn.at/en/national-emn-conference-2020-forecasting-the-future-of-global-migration/
Associated Downloads
Wednesday, September 16th 2020
Finance & Constitution Committee in the Scottish Parliament (Public engagement events)
David Bell
Virtual
Wednesday, September 16th 2020
09:30-12:30 BST
Professor David Bell contributed to the Scottish Parliment Financial and Constitution Committee.
Associated Downloads
Tuesday, September 15th 2020 - Wednesday, September 16th 2020
CPC at BSPS Virtual Conference 2020 (Conferences)

Online
Tuesday, September 15th 2020
Tuesday, September 15th 2020
The BSPS 2020 Conference will be a virtual Conference, to take place on Tuesday & Wednesday 15 & 16 September. BSPS membership will be required to participate via access codes. There will be no other registration charges. Conference website.
CPC Member & Associate contributions
Strand Organisers
Ageing in Place - Dr. Yazhen Yang, Dr. Maja Palmer
Data science: Innovative data, methods and models - Dr. Jason Hilton
Fertility & reproductive health - Dr. Heini Vaisanen
Internal & international migration - Dr. Júlia Mikolai, Dr. Michael J. Thomas
Immigrant integration across industrialised countries - Professor Hill Kulu, Dr. Júlia Mikolai
Papers
Tuesday 15 September 2020
Social disparities in residential mobility and children's outcomes in early and middle childhood (Fiori)
Assessment of cognitive health during various marital phases: Evidence based on the Health and Retirement Study, 1998-2014 (Sharma, Hale, Myrskylä, Kulu)
Understanding fertility trends in the constituent countries of the UK: What role do births to foreign-born mothers play (Berrington, Kuang)
Accumulative reproductive life histories and grip strength in Indonesia: 1993-2014 (Leone, Vaisanen, Witoelar)
Reflecting on the past: Forerunners and spatial diffusion of the fertility decline in England and Wales, 1851-1911 (Thiehoff , Hinde, Perelli-Harris, Vitali)
Do couples face an economic bar to marriage? - Understanding the contribution of men's and women's economic precariousness on first cohabitation outcomes in the UK, 19912018 (Palumbo, Berrington, Eibich)
Is there a bar for relationship quality? Examining the association between relationship happiness, economic conditions, and family transitions in the UK (Blom, Perelli-Harris)
Birth strike? How are environmental concerns associated with young adults' fertility intentions? (Berrington)
Early Career Plenary: Dr Julia Mikolai
The trend in mean height of Guatemalan women born between 1945 and 1995: a century behind (Arriaza, Hambidge, Krebs, Garcés, Channon)
Sex and socioeconomic disparities in the development of multimorbidity in Scotland: the benefits of applying a sequence based, longitudinal approach (Cezard, Sullivan, Bowles, Keenan)
Marital vs. non-marital births in England and Wales: Changing patterns over space and time (1951-2011) (Thiehoff, Perelli-Harris, Hinde, Vitali)
Wednesday 16 September 2020
The family dynamics of immigrants and their descendants in France: Evidence using Multichannel Sequence Analysis (Delaporte, Kulu)
Timing of childbirth of a changing composition of immigrants in Germany (Liu, Kulu)
The intersection of partnership and fertility histories among immigrants and their descendants in the United Kingdom: A multistate approach (Mikolai, Kulu)
Fertility behaviour of post-1990 immigrants and immigrant descendants in Sweden (Campbell, Andersson, Kulu)
How do we ensure informal carers discontinue care carefully? (Palmer)
Does informal caregiving predict loneliness? A comparison of loneliness measures (Davison, Willis, Langat)
Social inequalities in the risk of miscarriage among British women (Vaisanen, Keenan)
Early career panel: Reviewing journal articles (Jakub Bijak & Heini Väisänen)
Associated Downloads
Saturday, September 12th 2020
Lessons from COVID-19 and impacts on dementia design (Seminars and lectures)
Alison Dawson
Alzheimer's Disease International World Alzheimer Report 2020 Launch seminar
Saturday, September 12th 2020
Alison Dawson was invited to present 'Lessons from COVID-19 and impacts on dementia design' at the Alzheimer's Disease International World Alzheimer Report 2020 Launch seminar, 21 September 2020. Recording available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUY1tia3YvY.
Wednesday, September 9th 2020
The tale of the three landscapes: Connecting the layers through modelling (Seminars and lectures)
Jakub Bijak
Isaac Newton Institute, Cambridge / videolink
Wednesday, September 9th 2020
15:30-16:00
Jakub Bijak presented seminar "The tale of the three landscapes: Connecting the layers through modelling" for the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge, as part of the event “Integrating quantitative social, ecological and mathematical sciences into landscape decision-making”.
Presented via videolink. You can watch a recording of the presentation here: https://www.newton.ac.uk/seminar/20200909153016001
Wednesday, September 9th 2020
The tale of the three landscapes: Connecting the layers through modelling (Seminars and lectures)
Jakub Bijak
Isaac Newton Institute, Cambridge / videolink
Wednesday, September 9th 2020
15:30-16:00
Jakub Bijak presented seminar "The tale of the three landscapes: Connecting the layers through modelling" for the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge, as part of the event “Integrating quantitative social, ecological and mathematical sciences into landscape decision-making”.
Presented via videolink. You can watch a recording of the presentation here: https://www.newton.ac.uk/seminar/20200909153016001
Monday, September 7th 2020 - Thursday, September 10th 2020
Royal Statistical Society Conference (Conferences)

Online
Monday, September 7th 2020
Monday, September 7th 2020
The annual international conference of the Royal Statistical Society takes place every September for anyone interested in statistics and data science. This year's conference takes place virtually between 7-10 September 2020.
Session "Bayesian Demography" on Monday 7th at 14:35 has been organised by Peter W.F. Smith , Jakub Bijak, Erengul Dodd, Jon Forster, Jason Hilton on behalf Centre for Population Change, University of Southampton. Details below:
Capturing basis risk in insurance books: a Bayesian model for portfolio and population mortality'
Katrien Antoinio (KU Leuven)
Forecasting fertility with Bayesian parametric mixture models
Jason Hilton (University of Southampton)
Bayesian analysis of agent-based models for migration
Jakub Bijak (University of Southampton)
Bayesian demographic accounts
John Bryant (Independent Consultant at Bayesian Demography)
Population estimation and forecasting is a vital function of official statistical bodies, with implications for many areas of public policy. Population models are typically composed of separate models of mortality, fertility and migration. In order to make decisions on the basis of the estimates and forecasts arising from such models, quantification of the corresponding uncertainty is essential. Bayesian methods are well suited for this task. This session will feature presentation of contemporary Bayesian approaches to forecasting all three components of population change.
More information and register: https://rss.org.uk/training-events/rss-2020-conference/
Tuesday, July 28th 2020 - Wednesday, July 29th 2020
POSTPONED: Workshop: Relationship quality and family transitions (Workshops)
Royal Statistical Society, London
Tuesday, July 28th 2020
Tuesday, July 28th 2020
Wednesday, July 8th 2020 - Friday, July 10th 2020
POSTPONED: 3rd International Conference on Migration and Mobilities (Conferences)

University of St Andrews
Wednesday, July 8th 2020
Wednesday, July 8th 2020
David McCollum and Nissa Finney are the lead local conference organisers of the 3rd International Conference on Migration and Mobilities, which is being hosted by the University of St Andrews 8th-10th July 2020. This three-day conference builds on the successes of the first two iMigMob conferences (in Loughborough in 2016 and Plymouth in 2018) in bringing together scholars from a range of disciplinary perspectives to discuss the latest research in migration and mobilities.
This conference is orientated around the four themes, which have been chosen to reflect key contemporary conceptual and policy concerns:
- Internal migration and urban change, keynote speaker: Prof Darren Smith, University of Loughborough
Concerns about inequalities and the unaffordability and insecurity of housing are rising up the political, policy and academic agendas. This theme encompasses scholarship in population geography and beyond on pressing concerns such as residential segregation, gentrification and shifting patterns and processes of internal migration. We welcome papers on these and other topics that are relevant to other issues of urban change, residential mobilities and internal migration.
- Forced migration and bordering, keynote speaker: Prof Nick Gill, University of Exeter
According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, we are now witnessing the highest levels of displacement on record. An unprecedented 71 million people around the world are forcibly displaced from their homes, with 26 million classed as refugees (over half of whom are under the age of 18). Understanding the involuntary movement of populations, and the responses of states to them through bordering practices, is thus a key contemporary issue of concern for migration scholars as well as governments and NGOs. We welcome papers which engage with issues of forced migration and the practices of bordering that are deployed in response to them.
- Visualising mobilities, keynote speaker: Prof Alex Singleton, University of Liverpool
The advent of the big data epoch and advances in computing power present significant opportunities for researchers to better understand and visually represent the everyday mobilities of people across space. However researchers are still grappling with ongoing challenges surrounding the accessibility and representativeness of these data and with how to analyse such overwhelming quantities of information. This theme encompasses these issues and we particularly welcome papers which showcase advances in our ability to visualise population mobilities.
- European migration in turbulent politic, Keynote speaker: Dr Kate Botterill, University of Glasgow
Contentions around migration arguably sit at the heart of the key geopolitical fractures of our times. In this theme we seek to explore how understandings of migration might need to be rethought in light of ongoing political turbulence in the European context. As such we welcome papers that engage with topics such as Brexit, the European refugee crisis, the rise of anti-immigrant sentiment across Europe and the politics of anti-immigration controls.
Official website: http://www.imigmob2020.org/38418
Early Bird Close:14th March 2020
Registration Close:9th June 2020
Friday, July 3rd 2020
CPC Webinar - Domestic labour and the "fertility gap": obstacle to childbearing or measurement fallacy? (Seminars and lectures)

Alyce Raybould, LSHTM
Webinar
Friday, July 3rd 2020
12:00-13:00
This Centre for Population Change webinar will be held on Friday 03 July at 12:00 BST. Alyce Raybould, from LSHTM, will be giving a talk entitled 'Domestic labour and the "fertility gap": obstacle to childbearing or measurement fallacy?'
To attend the CPC seminar, please join us using this link: https://eu.bbcollab.com/guest/de981ff617d3426d9a4544f74aacb960
You may need to use Google Chrome to use BlackBoard Collaborate.
Title: Domestic labour and the "fertility gap": obstacle to childbearing or measurement fallacy?
Abstract:
In almost all high-income settings, the existence of a fertility gap between stated ideal and actual family size suggests there are impediments to women achieving their childbearing goals. Previous studies have suggested that female domestic burden could be a potential impediment to childbearing: when women are expected to perform both paid and unpaid labour responsibilities without additional support, continued childbearing is made untenable. This presentation explores whether division of domestic labour could help explain the fertility gap, or whether the gap is instead driven by issues of measurement.
I first explore whether domestic division of labour influences childbearing intentions and behaviour through a systematic review of 95 analyses. Despite some variation in findings, I find evidence supporting this theory. However, the review also highlights that studies focusing on the fertility gap at the individual level (typically exploring whether an intention or an ideal for children is realised) have been methodologically weak, confusing different psychological concepts and ignoring that fertility intentions can change over time. To address these shortcomings, I use data from the USA to explore whether women with less domestic burden are more likely to realise an intention for a second child. I then examine whether intentions for a second child become sacrificed after first birth, a time when domestic labour increases and becomes more gendered, using longitudinal data from the UK and USA. I find a steep drop in expected family size among one child individuals after first birth. My future work aims to further disentangle the apparent fertility gap by exploring the correspondence between intentions for a child prior to birth, contraceptive behaviour and wantedness of a child in the USA. In doing so, I hope to tease apart whether the fertility gap is truly the result of impediments to childbearing, or is driven by a lack of coherency between stated intentions to act and subsequent behaviour.
Thursday, July 2nd 2020
A Crisis In Adult Social Care? Learning From Across The UK (Seminars and lectures)
David Bell
Webinar
Thursday, July 2nd 2020
10:00-11:00 BST
David Bell spoke at the HSR UK Conference Plenary 'A Crisis In Adult Social Care? Learning From Across The UK' on Thursday 2 July at 11:00.
https://hsruk.org/conference-2020/plenaries/crisis-adult-social-care-learning-across-uk
For perhaps two decades people have been declaring that there is a crisis in social care - and over the last decade it has become more acute as access to care and funding for care have reduced at the same time as the need and demand for care have increased. Governments have produced a long list of reports, reviews and proposals but little action has followed. Social care arrangements in the four countries of the UK have diverged, most notably with integrated health and care delivery in Northern Ireland and free personal care in Scotland. The current pandemic has been a tragedy particularly in social care and has thrown the issues of resourcing into painfully sharp relief. In this plenary our three presenters will explore the longstanding challenges of social care as well as the current crisis, and ask what we can learn from research and comparative analysis across the UK.
Wednesday, June 24th 2020 - Friday, June 26th 2020
Beyond EPC 2020 - The webinar series (Conferences)

Webinars
Wednesday, June 24th 2020
Wednesday, June 24th 2020
The Centre for Population Change was due to be exhibiting at EPC2020, with many members attending to present their research in Padova, Italy. However, the conference has been cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Instead, the European Association for Population Studies (EAPS) has announced a series of EPC 2020 webinars. They aim to showcase materials from the cancelled European Population Conference. The series will connect the population research community at a time when large conferences cannot be organised.
Taking place 24-26 June, the Beyond EPC 2020 webinars are free of charge. To participate you will have to register for each event at http://epc2020.eaps.nl/days. Please note that all times advertised are Amsterdam time (GMT + 2).
CPC Director and outgoing President of EAPS, Professor Jane Falkingham OBE, will be opening the first EAPS webinar on Wednesday 24 June. The session will look back and forward with the outgoing and incoming EAPS Presidents, the Padova Organizing Committee, and two EAPS 2018 Laureates who will present their work.
Among the other sessions, CPC members and associates are chairing discussions and presenting their research:
Dr Julia Mikolai, Chair
Session 2: Economic and emotional well-being across the life course
25 June, 10:00-11:00
Professor Jakub Bijak, Chair
Session 4: Innovations in demographic data and methods
25 June, 16:00-17:00
Professor Ann Berrington, Presenter
'Birth strike? How are environmental concerns associated with young adults fertility intentions?'
Session 6: Fertility at times of crisis: from economic recession to climate change
26 June, 12:00-13:00
Francesco Rampazzo, Discussant
Session 8: EAPS PhD Network: Speed chit chats
26 June, 16:00-17:00
For a full list of sessions, papers and participants, please see the webinar schedule on the European Population Conference website: http://epc2020.eaps.nl/days. You can register online by clicking 'Register here' at the top of the relevant session page. You will then receive joining instructions by email. All enquiries should be directed to EAPS at epc2020@nidi.nl
Monday, June 22nd 2020 - Wednesday, June 24th 2020
SICSS Festival (Conferences)
Francesco Rampazzo
Https://youtu.be/BueR-DPy484
Monday, June 22nd 2020
Monday, June 22nd 2020
Francesco Rampazzo was a discussant on a panel on teaching computational social science as part of the SICSS Festival, 24 June. Watch the video online: https://youtu.be/BueR-DPy484
Thursday, June 18th 2020
CPC Webinar - Accelerated School-to-Work transition in Britain: Still true? (Seminars and lectures)

Alina Pelikh, UCL
Webinar
Thursday, June 18th 2020
13:00-14:00
This Centre for Population Change webinar will be held on Thursday 18 June at 13:00 BST. Alina Pelikh, from UCL, will be giving a talk entitled, 'Accelerated School-to-Work transition in Britain: Still true?'.
RSVP for this webinar on Zoom: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZEkd-ChrTMuGtUhbxd3OnpopLQXZgdDKtwd
You will be asked to register and enter your name and email address to join.
The Centre for Population Change office might use this information to collate the number of attendees during the seminar and get aggregate level statistics to justify our seminars to our funders. If you do not wish for CPC to use your personal information (name/email address) in this way, please let us know by email (Julia.Mikolai@st-andrews.ac.uk; cc: gc79@st-andrews.ac.uk & Cpc@soton.ac.uk).
--
Title: Accelerated School-to-Work transition in Britain: Still true?
Abstract:
This paper investigates whether the British pattern of the transition to adulthood with an early transition from school to work still exists. We apply sequence analysis to combined life histories from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and the Understanding Society study (UKHLS) to gain a holistic picture of how education and employment trajectories of young adults born between 1974 and 1990 in England and Wales differ by birth cohort, gender, and socio-economic background. Next, we investigate how various trajectories lead to inequalities in labour market outcomes in later life. Around half of young people in the sample follow the rapid school-to-work trajectories with around one third of young adults obtaining a higher education degree by age 26. The distinctive British early transition from school to work is still prevalent, although trajectories have become more complex and precarious, in particular among young people from lower socio-economic backgrounds. Yet, the decrease in the direct school-to-work trajectories among the youngest cohort was replaced by the prolonged stay in education and increase in part-time employment. The proportion of university graduates from lower socio-economic backgrounds has increased among the youngest cohort yet remains disproportionally low. Consequently, the chances of being in professional and managerial occupations remain significantly lower among highly educated young people from disadvantaged backgrounds.
Thursday, June 18th 2020
Scottish Affairs Committee Meeting (Public engagement events)
David Bell
Https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/a9db3cd7-ad46-4d90-95fc-2c4221687c80
Thursday, June 18th 2020
David Bell spoke to MPs at the Scottish Affairs Committee meeting, 18 June. Watch the session recording online: https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/a9db3cd7-ad46-4d90-95fc-2c4221687c80
Thursday, June 11th 2020 - Friday, June 12th 2020
Special Event: Bayesian Analysis in Demography (Workshops)
Jakub Bijak
Https://www.populationsciences.berkeley.edu/weekly-news-june-9-2020
Thursday, June 11th 2020
Thursday, June 11th 2020
Jakub Bijak gave a talk 'Bayesian estimation of uncertain migration flows: Principles and examples' for online event on Bayesian Analysis in Demography organised by Berkeley Population Sciences.
Thursday, June 4th 2020
Demography and Migration: Current and Future Trends (Seminars and lectures)
Jakub Bijak
NATO Defence College, Rome, via videolink
Thursday, June 4th 2020
Jakub Bijak presented a guest lecture on “Demography and Migration: Current and Future Trends”, for the Senior Course 136, NATO Defence College, Rome, via videolink.
Wednesday, June 3rd 2020
Care home design: impact and limitations during COVID-19 (Seminars and lectures)
Alison Dawson
Alzheimer's Disease International Seminar on Dementia and COVID-19
Wednesday, June 3rd 2020
Alison Dawson, was invited to present 'Care home design: impact and limitations during COVID-19' to 'The hidden casualties of COVID-19: revealing the emergency in care homes and the lessons learnt in day care', 3rd Alzheimer's Disease International Seminar on Dementia and COVID-19, 3 June 2020. Recording available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8Y2nA0oefs&feature=youtu.be
Thursday, May 28th 2020
CPC Webinar - Can the digital revolution promote gender equality? (Seminars and lectures)

Ridhi Kashyap, University of Oxford
Webinar
Thursday, May 28th 2020
13:00-14:00
This Centre for Population Change webinar will be held on Thursday 28 May at 13:00 BST. Dr Ridhi Kashyap, from the University of Oxford, will present "Can the digital revolution promote gender equality?". See the abstract below.
To attend the CPC seminar, please follow this zoom link: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZwrc-Goqj4jGtR2vyMNsBR_OQdfIQjHq_rW
You will be asked to register and enter your name and email address to join.
The Centre of Population Change office might use this information to collate the number of attendees during the seminar and get aggregate level statistics to justify our seminars to our funders. If you do not wish for CPC to use your personal information (name/email address) in this way, please let me know by email (gc79@st-andrews.ac.uk).
Participants will be muted upon entry.
As a test, the zoom meeting will be open from 12:40pm, leaving 20 minutes for participants to get to know each other and have a chat if they wish to do so before the start of the seminar.
Title: Can the digital revolution promote gender equality?
Abstract:
The rapid proliferation of the internet and mobile phones has been one of the most significant social phenomena of the new millennium. In this talk, I will discuss the implications of this digital revolution for the realisation of the sustainable development goals (SDGs), in particular SDG 5 on gender equality. First, drawing on the survey data linked with geo-spatial satellite data in Sub-Saharan Africa, I will present findings that show how the ownership of mobile phones has empowered women to access information and resources important for health and well-being and bolstered their ability to make independent decisions. This highlights the need to monitor and close digital gender gaps to promote sustainable development. Monitoring this progress however is often challenging due to the limited availability of gender-disaggregated data on internet and mobile access, particularly in low-income countries. In this data-sparse context, I will describe how data generated from social media marketing APIs can be repurposed to track global digital gender gaps.
Thursday, May 14th 2020
CPC Webinar - Time Pressure and Mothers' Health and Well-Being During the Preschool Years (Seminars and lectures)

Belinda Hewitt
Microsoft Teams Webinar
Thursday, May 14th 2020
10:00-11:00 BST
This Centre for Population Change webinar will be held on Thursday 14 May at 10:00 BST. Belinda Hewitt, from the University of Melbourne, will be giving a talk entitled, 'Time Pressure and Mothers' Health and Well-Being During the Preschool Years'.
RSVP for this webinar: https://forms.gle/MHwERWznjJ1bvktM6. The webinar will be held via Microsoft Teams meeting.
Title: Time Pressure and Mothers' Health and Well-Being During the Preschool Years (Co-authored with Lyndall Strazdins (Australian National University, Australia), Mara Yerkes (Utrecht University, the Netherlands) and Amanda Cooklin (LaTrobe University, Australia))
Abstract: Time pressure is a common experience in dual-earner families, and particularly for working mothers of young children. Work and family obligations exact large allotments of time from mothers, and the time pressure they experience significantly impacts on their health and wellbeing. To date research on time pressure and health has primarily been cross-sectional and conceptualises the relationship as unidirectional and therefore offers limited insights into the reciprocal (i.e. does time pressure influence health and vice versa?) and dynamic processes of time pressure and health over time (i.e. does it improve or get worse?).
This paper uses data from a 5-wave panel study (2012 - 2015) of mothers when their children were aged 6 months - 4 years old and examines the complex relationship between time pressure and mother's health and wellbeing during these intensive pre-school child rearing years. Importantly, we were able to investigate which time demands on mothers - employment, housework or childcare - are most significant for increasing time pressure in the context of health. For partnered mothers we also take into account her report of partner's time contributions to work, childcare and housework hours when predicting mother's perceptions of time pressure.
Details of all forthcoming CPC events and seminars can be found on our website: http://www.cpc.ac.uk/activities/latest_events/
Thursday, May 7th 2020
POSTPONED: Distinguished Lecture: Sir Ian Diamond (Public engagement events)

Sir Ian Diamond
University of Southampton
Thursday, May 7th 2020
Postponed due to COVID-19
Thursday, April 30th 2020
CANCELLED: CPC Seminar - The transition to adulthood in times of social change (Seminars and lectures)

Ingrid Schoon
Ladywell House, Edinburgh EH12 7TF Room (1/G/8)
Thursday, April 30th 2020
13:00-14:00
This seminar has been cancelled due to covid-19.
Thursday, April 30th 2020
Webinar: Skills for Understanding Ageing in a Globalised World (Seminars and lectures)

Jane Falkingham & Athina Vlachantoni
Www.skillparkkerala.in/webinars
Thursday, April 30th 2020
11:30 BST
Prof. Jane Falkingham and Prof. Athina Vlachantoni will be presenting the ASAP Free Webinar "Skills for Understanding Ageing in a Globalised World" at 4pm India Standard Time (11:30 AM British Summer Time).
www.skillparkkerala.in/webinars
Thursday, April 30th 2020
CPC Webinar - Roselinde van der Wiel and Giammarco Alderotti (Seminars and lectures)
Roselinde van der Wiel and Giammarco Alderotti
Webinar
Thursday, April 30th 2020
13:00-14:00
The next CPC Seminar will be on Thursday April 30th 2020, 1-2pm (UK time).
The seminar will be shared between two speakers: Roselinde van der Wiel from the University of Groningen, Netherlands, and Dr Giammarco Alderotti from the University of Florence, Italy. Please, see the title and abstract of their presentation below. Each presentation will last about 20 minutes followed by 10 minutes for questions.
13.00-13.30: Roselinde van der Wiel, University of Groningen
Title: Migration for co-residence in Denmark: the role of family ties and family complexity.
Abstract: When two romantic partners decide to live together, an important decision they have to make is where to live: who moves in with whom, or where will the new destination for both of them be? This decision has an especially pronounced effect when starting co-residence requires one or both partners to make a long-distance move (i.e. migration), resulting in a disruption of local ties. This paper addresses the issue of who, in opposite-sex couples, bridges the longest distance to initiate co-residence: he or she. We do so by looking at the woman's share in the total distance moved by both partners in the year of entry into co-residence. Our aim is to explore the influence of local ties to family members and elements of family complexity, as well as any gender asymmetries on who moves furthest. We use Danish population register data and adopting a multilevel cross-classified statistical framework that takes both partners' location of origin into account. The study population constitutes all opposite-sex couples aged 18-70 who entered co-residence between 2009 and 2018 and who were long-distance prior to co-residence. Our preliminary findings show that it is more common for women to migrate towards their male partner than the other way around. Women also move longer distances, on average. Having resident children and living close to family are strong predictors of who moves to whom. Living with parents drives individuals, men especially, to move towards their partner. Individuals who were still living with a different partner at the start of the year bridged a relatively large share of the total distance. Further, the effect of having lived with a partner before depends on whether one stayed or moved out at separation.
13.30-14.00: Giammarco Alderotti from the University of Florence
Title: Better Health, Higher Fertility? Exploring the relationship between migrants' health and fertility intentions in Italy.
Abstract: Research on the determinants of migrants' fertility has always focused on socio-economic factors (education, employment, integration), producing incomplete and sometimes contradictory evidence. Alongside, the health status of migrants is at the top of many researchers' agenda, since it is a good proxy of the integration process, and because of its implications on national healthcare systems. Despite health status and fertility are among the most important aspects of migrants' lives in the destination country, the extent to which the first influence the second has hardly ever been considered. In this work, we posit that individual health status may in fact play a role in shaping fertility (intentions) among migrant subpopulations, with different implications by gender, and test our assumption on Italian data.
Monday, April 6th 2020
POSTPONED: CPC Seminar - The effect of retirement on voluntary work provision in England, Ireland and the US. (Seminars and lectures)

Peter Eibich
TBC
Monday, April 6th 2020
15:00-16:00
This event has been postponed due to travel restrictions in Europe.
This Centre for Population Change seminar will be held on Monday 02 February in building 502, room 5053, 15:00-16:00. Peter Eibich, from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, will be giving a talk entitled, 'The effect of retirement on voluntary work provision in England, Ireland and the US.'.
Refreshments will be available in the seminar room until 16:45.
Title: The effect of retirement on voluntary work provision in England, Ireland and the US.
Abstract: Voluntary work is an important contribution for many non-profit organizations, such as charities, political and religious organizations. Older individuals make up a sizable share of the volunteer workforce, and volunteering is often regarded as an example of active ageing. In this study, we examine whether retirement has a causal effect on the frequency of voluntary work provision in three English-speaking countries - England, Ireland and the U.S. We draw on data from the ELSA, TILDA and HRS studies and analyse these datasets using a harmonized empirical approach. We use eligibility ages for old age pensions in an instrumental variables estimation to address potential confounding. We find that retirement increases the frequency of voluntary work provision in all three countries, especially among men. This suggests that labour market policies aimed at increasing labour force participation at older ages might have unintended consequences for the size of the volunteer workforce.
Thursday, March 26th 2020
CPC Webinar - Partnering Behavior and Economic Inequality in the UK from a Comparative Perspective (Seminars and lectures)

Diederik Boertien
Zoom Meeting: RSVP required
Thursday, March 26th 2020
13:00-14:00
Our next speaker Dr Diederik Boertien will present “Partnering Behavior and Economic Inequality in the UK from a Comparative Perspective” at 1pm on Thursday March 26th.
If you wish to join the seminar, please email cpc@soton.ac.uk by Thursday 11am to recive a zoom meeting invitation. The link will be sent 10-15 minutes before the start of the seminar. You do not need to have a zoom account. If it is your first time joining a zoom meeting, don't worry, we will introduce how to use it at the start of the seminar.
Please keep an open mind with this first online CPC seminar as some might experience connection issues.
Abstract:
Dr Diederik Boertien, from the Centre for Demographic Studies (Centre d'Estudis Demográfics), Barcelona will present:
Title: Partnering Behavior and Economic Inequality in the UK from a Comparative Perspective.
Who partners with whom has become an important question in studies of economic inequality between households. If rich individuals partner with other rich individuals, inequality between households will be higher as compared to a situation where rich persons partner with poor persons. It is therefore not surprising that changes in “assortative mating” are considered to have increased inequality over time. Despite this widespread belief, empirical evidence supporting this claim is surprisingly mixed.
In this talk, empirical results will be presented on how partner selection based on education, income and social background has changed over time. Subsequently, the impact of these trends on economic inequality will be quantified. The focus will be on the UK, but results will be compared with results for other OECD countries. The results indicate that changes in assortative mating have had little impact on economic inequality between households in most countries. There are some recent and partial exceptions to this general finding, including a modest impact of assortative mating on income inequality in the UK that emerged after the mid-1990s.
Thursday, March 26th 2020
POSTPONED: Unpacking migration: regional diversity and impact on public services (Workshops)

Jane Falkingham, Jakub Bijak, Jackie Wahba
Attlee Suite, Portcullis House, Houses of Parliament, London, SW1A 2LW
Thursday, March 26th 2020
10:45 - 15:15
This event has been postponed due to the cancellation of mass gatherings in UK parliament.
Join leading experts at UK Parliament to find out more about migration. What are the economic and social aspects? What do the models say?
Migration is multidimensional, complex and uncertain. In the UK, the topic of migration is one of the most debated issues facing both policymakers and the British public. Many members of the UK Parliament are deeply interested in migration and its implications, not only for the economy, but also for society and local communities. However, people have different opinions on migration, which is similarly reflected among policymakers. As the Government plans its new immigration policy, it is extremely important to bring evidence and impartial independent research to the UK Parliament to help inform good policy debate and contribute to well-informed policies in advance of upcoming legislation scrutiny.
This public conference will bring together UK parliamentarians and policy officials with responsibility for migration, representatives from UK universities and the third sector.
Two public seminars will bring leading experts to discuss the economic and social aspects of migration, and explore migration models.
This is a joint event between CPC, the Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology (POST) and Public Policy|Southampton.
Refreshments and lunch will be provided, and the event will conclude with a drinks reception and exhibition, to allow networking and further discussion.
A series of closed briefings for parliamentarians and staff will take place from 15:45 to 17:15.
Further info and registration at: https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/unpacking-migration-regional-diversity-and-impact-on-public-services-tickets-94422118097?aff=ebdssbdestsearch
Thursday, March 19th 2020
POSTPONED: CPC Seminar - The mismeasurement of same-sex couples in longitudinal studies (Seminars and lectures)

Peter Brandon
University of Southampton, Building 54, Room 10031 (10C)
Thursday, March 19th 2020
Saturday, March 14th 2020 - Friday, February 14th 2020
POSTPONED: Science and Engineering Day 2020 (Public engagement events)

University of Southampton
Saturday, March 14th 2020
Saturday, March 14th 2020
This event has been postponed.
Friday, March 13th 2020
Why COVID-19 has potential to become a global pandemic? (Seminars and lectures)

Sabu Padmadas
University of Southampton, Building 100, Room 4013
Friday, March 13th 2020
13:00-14:00
A talk by Professor Sabu Padmadas, Associate Dean (International) and Professor of Demography and Global Health.
This talk provides a synthesis of historical evidence and reasons underlying the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases in the twenty-first century and examines the population risks and aetiology of the recent COVID-19 outbreak which has now surpassed over 100 countries across the world regions. Then it addresses the critical challenges that governments and public health institutions face in overcoming the complexity and uncertainty associated with COVID-19, with a reflection on mitigation strategies to prevent the virus from becoming a global pandemic.
Register on eventbrite: https://covid-19-fss.eventbrite.co.uk/ or watch the live stream online: https://southampton.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=ce3c2b76-fcd6-4c90-8caa-ab7b00f95f4a
Monday, March 9th 2020
Fertility and Reproduction Seminars: Nicholas Campisi (Seminars and lectures)

Nicholas Campisi
University of Oxford, Seminar Room, 64 Banbury Road
Monday, March 9th 2020
Nicholas Campisi from St Andrews University and the Max Plank Institute for Demographic Research will be presenting on "A Spatial Approach to European Fertility Trends" as part of the Fertility and Reproduction Seminars: 2020. The seminar theme is Low Fertility Variation at Sub-National Levels: Historical, Demographic, and Anthropological Perspectives.
More info: https://www.frsg.org/seminars
Wednesday, March 4th 2020
T&SCon: The potential of technology to promote social connectedness for adults living in Scotland (Other)
Alison Dawson
Edinburgh
Wednesday, March 4th 2020
Alison Dawson presented on research with McCabe, L., Douglas, E., Wilson, M. and Bowes, A. during the 'T&SCon: The potential of technology to promote social connectedness for adults living in Scotland', presentation at Digital Health & Care Institute Healthy Ageing Innovation Cluster meeting, Edinburgh, 4 March 2020.
Monday, March 2nd 2020 - Thursday, January 2nd 2020
POSTPONED: CPC/Worldpop Seminar - From global tracking to country monitoring and learning for women's, children and adolescents' health (Seminars and lectures)

Ties Boerma
University of Southampton
Monday, March 2nd 2020
Monday, March 2nd 2020
14:30
This event has been postponed.
Abstract: The Countdown to 2030, a global collaboration of academic institutions, UN agencies and civil society organizations, aims to strengthen monitoring and measurement of reproductive, maternal, newborn, adolescent and child health and nutrition (RMNCAH) at global, regional and country levels.
What is the state of inequalities in RMCNAH five years into the SDGs? Results of a Countdown BMJ Collection of papers on leaving no woman, no child, no adolescent behind launched in January 2020. How can we strengthen the monitoring and learning component in countries? Through its key partners and regional networks, the Countdown to 2030 is working with public health and research institutions in 15+ countries with GFF investment cases to inform country, regional and global assessments of progress and performance.
Ties Boerma is Director of the Department of Health Statistics and Informatics at the World Health Organization in Geneva. He obtained his degree in medicine from the University of Groningen, Netherlands, and his PhD in Medical Demography from the University of Amsterdam. He has 30 years of experience working in public health and research programmes in developing countries, including 10 years in Africa. In the US, Dr. Boerma worked for Demographic and Health Surveys as Health Coordinator and as Director of the USAID-funded MEASURE Evaluation project, while holding an appointment as Associate Professor in the Department of Epidemiology at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. In Africa, he worked for UNICEF in primary health care and monitoring and evaluation in eastern and southern Africa, and as technical lead of a National Institute for Medical Research/Royal Tropical Institute Amsterdam research and intervention project on HIV/AIDS in Mwanza, Tanzania. Dr. Boerma has published extensively on monitoring and evaluation, health information, HIV/AIDS, and maternal and child health in epidemiological, demographic, and public health journals.
Monday, March 2nd 2020
Fertility and Reproduction Seminar: Stephanie Thiehoff (Seminars and lectures)

Stephanie Thiehoff
University of Oxford, Seminar Room, 64 Banbury Road
Monday, March 2nd 2020
11:00-12:30
Stephanie Thiehoff from the University of Southampton will be presenting on "Reflecting on the Past: Long-term Spatial Persistence of Fertility Behaviour from the First to the Second Demographic Transition in England and Wales" as part of the Fertility and Reproduction Seminars: 2020. The seminar theme is Low Fertility Variation at Sub-National Levels: Historical, Demographic, and Anthropological Perspectives.
More info: https://www.frsg.org/seminars
Friday, February 28th 2020
CPC Seminar - Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy (Seminars and lectures)

Jakub Bijak, Peter Smith, Jackie Wahba
University of Southampton, Building 2, Room 5053
Friday, February 28th 2020
12:00-13:00
RSVP to attend this seminar on Eventbrite: http://ow.ly/HZE450y5Aek
Jakub Bijak, Peter Smith and Jackie Wahba cordially invite you to an informal inauguration of QuantMig: Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy. QuantMig is a three-year research project funded by the European Commission under the Horizon 2020 programme, and executed by a consortium of seven top European research institutions, led by the University of Southampton. The project aims to transform the methodology of setting and analysing migration scenarios in order to more efficiently address the key contemporary challenges of complexity and uncertainty of migration flows, and to enable more timely and robust policy responses. Starting in February 2020, the project will involve many stakeholder-facing activities besides the core conceptual and analytical work.
Tuesday, February 25th 2020
PHRG/CPC Seminar - Age at parental separation and children's school outcomes in Sweden: A sibling difference analysis (Seminars and lectures)

Juho Härkönen
University of St Andrews, United College, Room 32
Tuesday, February 25th 2020
12:00-13:00
A joint PHRG/CPC seminar given by Prof Juho Härkönen on “Age at parental separation and children's school outcomes in Sweden: A sibling difference analysis”. It will take place at the University of St Andrews, free to attend, on February 25th 2020, 12-1pm, in United College, room 32. Lunch will be provided afterwards in room 36.
If you would like to attend, please let Dr Julia Mikolai (Julia.mikolai@st-andrews.ac.uk) or I, Genevieve Cezard (gc79@st-andrews.ac.uk), know.
Juho Härkönen, European University Institute, Florence
--
Age at parental separation and children's school outcomes in Sweden: A sibling difference analysis
(together with Siddartha Aradhya, Stockholm University)
Parental separation is associated with a host of adverse outcomes, one of which is lower educational performance and attainment. Evidence has accumulated suggesting that part of this association is causal, and recent research has focused on understanding heterogeneity in these effects. The age at which parents separate is one source of such heterogeneity, and previous research has offered inconsistent evidence on whether the effects of parental separation are more or less severe when parents separate when the child is young. In this study, we use a sibling design with population register data from Sweden to analyze the effects of the age of parental separation on children’s GPAs at age 15. Non-twin siblings from the same family experience parental separation at different ages, which can be used to identify the effects of variation in age at exposure to parental separation on school outcomes. Our main result is a negative age gradient in the effects of parental separation: the effects of parental separation are the strongest around the ages at which grades are set, and gradually weaken the younger the child was when her parents separated. This result supports the conflict model of parental separation. Additional analyses show that a) children whose parents separated just after the grades were set (placebo test) perform better than those whose parents separated just before the grades were set, but worse than those whose parents separated when the child was young (supporting a “divorce process” perspective), b) regular regression analyses produce the opposite age pattern in the effects (suggesting strong negative selection of parents who separate sooner rather than later), c) sibling fixed effects results are sensitive to error in measuring parental separation, and d) the effects of age at parental separation are heterogeneous. Taken together, our results suggest that in many cases, the children of parents who separate later rather than sooner show worse educational performance.
Saturday, February 22nd 2020
Taxation and Government Spending in Scotland (Workshops)
David Bell
Golden Jubilee hotel and conference centre in Clydebank, Scotland
Saturday, February 22nd 2020
David Bell presented to the Citizens' Assembly of Scotland- https://www.citizensassembly.scot/.
Weekend 4
21 February - 23 February
Taxation and Government spending in Scotland
Professor David Bell CBE, University of Stirling)
Slides: https://www.citizensassembly.scot/sites/default/files/inline-files/DNFB%20Citizens%20Assembly.pdf
Thursday, February 20th 2020
CPC Seminar - Understanding fertility trends in the constituent countries of the UK: Existing knowledge and unanswered questions (Seminars and lectures)

Ann Berrington
Ladywell House, Edinburgh EH12 7TF Room (1/G/8)
Thursday, February 20th 2020
Ann Berrington (with input from Kerry Miller), Centre for Population Change, University of Southampton.
Abstract:
The aim of this presentation is threefold: 1) To introduce FERTILYtrends - a new ESRC-funded project that will examine the dramatic fluctuations in fertility since the late 1990s, investigate their causes, and develop improved methodologies for fertility forecasting. The project team, based at the Universities of St Andrews and Southampton are working with stakeholder input from the National Records of Scotland, the Northern Ireland Statistical Agency and the Office for National Statistics. 2) Using data from vital registration the talk outlines what is currently known (and not known) about widening country differences in the timing and quantum of fertility. 3) We evaluate one explanation for these cross-national differences - the role of differential international migration in the constituent countries. However, there remain many unanswered questions and the FERTILITYtrends team are keen to reach out to those who may be able to provide further insight.
Tuesday, February 11th 2020 - Wednesday, February 12th 2020
ESRC CASS Workshop on Healthy Ageing - Postponed (Workshops)

University of Southampton
Tuesday, February 11th 2020
Tuesday, February 11th 2020
Please note that this event has been postponed. If you have any queries, please email cpc@soton.ac.uk
Monday, February 10th 2020
Fertility and Reproduction Seminars: Brienna Perelli-Harris and Natalia Permyakova (Seminars and lectures)

Brienna Perelli-Harris and Natalia Permyakova
University of Oxford, Seminar Room, 64 Banbury Road
Monday, February 10th 2020
Brienna Perelli-Harris and Natalia Permyakova, University of Southampton will be presenting a seminar on "Fertility Recuperation in a Very Low Fertility Society: Political and Economic Attitudes, Technology, and Second Births in Ukraine" as part of the Fertility and Reproduction Seminars: 2020. The seminar theme is Low Fertility Variation at Sub-National Levels: Historical, Demographic, and Anthropological Perspectives.
More info: https://www.frsg.org/seminars
Tuesday, February 4th 2020
CPC Seminar - The effects of increasing enrolment in education and variation in economic context on aggregate trends in order-specific fertility in Belgium, 1960-2000: implications for hazard-based microsimulation models of fertility trends (Seminars and lectures)

University of St Andrews, George Cumming Room, Irvine building
Tuesday, February 4th 2020
12:00-13:00
Joint PHRG/CPC seminar:
Karel Neels, University of Antwerp, Belgium
(co-authored with Jonas Wood)
The effects of increasing enrolment in education and variation in economic context on aggregate trends in order-specific fertility in Belgium, 1960-2000: implications for hazard-based microsimulation models of fertility trends
Delayed childbearing and low fertility have been prominent features of fertility trends in Europe and other developed countries since the 1970s. More recently, the same has been true of Southeast Asia and Latin America. A compilation of published evidence concluded that the main factors to which the underlying trend to later childbearing are attributed are effective contraception, increases in women's education and labour market participation, value changes, gender equity, partnership changes, housing conditions, economic uncertainty and the absence of supportive family policies. Few studies have attempted to quantify the contribution of any of these factors to aggregate change in both tempo and quantum of fertility. Based on the maternity histories of women aged 14 and older in the 2001 census, discrete-time hazard models are developed which illustrate how increasing enrolment in education and articulated economic cycles have induced aggregate change in the mean age at parenthood (MAC1) and the synthetic parity progression ratio to first births (SPPR1) in Belgium between 1960 and 2000, as well as period variation in the progression to second and higher-order births. The results encourage reflection on the potential and limitations of hazard-based microsimulation models to project short-term and long-term aggregate fertility trends, and on the expansion of such models to include additional exogenous factors.
Thursday, January 30th 2020
CPC Seminar - Partnership and Fertility Patterns among Immigrants and Their Descendants in Europe (Seminars and lectures)

Ladywell House, Edinburgh EH12 7TF Room (1/G/8)
Thursday, January 30th 2020
13:00-14:00
Hill Kulu is Professor of Human Geography and Demography at the University of St Andrews and Co-Director for the ESRC Centre for Population Change. His substantive research interests lie in the field of family, fertility, migration and health studies; his methodological interests include the development and application of longitudinal models in social science research. Kulu's research has advanced our understanding of how family changes and residential choices interact in people's lives and how residential context shapes childbearing, migration and health behaviour of individuals. He jointly co-ordinates the migration and mobility strand of CPC, as well as working within the fertility and family strand.
Tuesday, January 21st 2020
Workshop: Modelling migration and decisions (Workshops)

Lakeside Centre, Wide Lane, Eastleigh,
Tuesday, January 21st 2020
Invited participants only, to share findings from the Bayesian Agent-based Population Studies project.
The aim of the workshop is to discuss, in an informal setting, some promising avenues of modelling migration and migrant decisions, with focus on four areas: migration data, decisions, model construction and analysis.
Monday, January 20th 2020 - Tuesday, January 21st 2020
IUSSP Scientific Panel on New and Emerging Family Forms around the World (Conferences)

Manila, Philippines
Monday, January 20th 2020
Monday, January 20th 2020
CPC member Brienna Perelli-Harris is the chair of the day, and one of the seminar organisers for the second international seminar on New and Emerging Family Forms around the World.
This panel brings together researchers from around the world to discuss theories and explanations for changes in family behaviours.
More information: https://www.iussp.org/en/2nd-iussp-seminar-new-and-emerging-family-forms-around-world
Thursday, December 19th 2019
CPC Seminar - Population Projections for Scotland (Seminars and lectures)
Daniel Burns
Ladywell House, Edinburgh EH12 7TF Room (1/G9)
Thursday, December 19th 2019
13:00-14:00
The December CPC Scotland Seminar will be on Thursday 19 December 2019 at Ladywell House. Ladywell Road, Edinburgh EH12 7TF (1-2pm. Room 1/G/9). Please let Esther Roughsedge (Esther.Roughsedge@nrscotland.gov.uk) know if you would like to attend and need to be signed in at Ladywell House. Also, please bring your own lunch as this won't be provided.
Daniel Burns from the National Records of Scotland will present:
Title: Population Projections for Scotland
Abstract: New 2018-based population projections for Scotland were published by National Records of Scotland on 21 October 2019, and provide a look at what future populations of Scotland could look like, based on past trends. This seminar will walk through the assumptions behind the projections, the results and what their implications could be for the future.
Friday, December 13th 2019
CPC Seminar - The trajectory and transition of cognitive function amongst older adults in China (Seminars and lectures)
Prof Xiaoting Liu
54/7035
Friday, December 13th 2019
13:00-14:00
This Centre for Population Change seminar will be held on 13 December in building 54, room 7035, 13:00-14:00. Professor Xiaoting Liu is going to give a talk entitled, 'The trajectory and transition of cognitive function amongst older adults in China'.
This seminar is co-organised with the Centre for Research on Ageing at the University of Southampton: https://www.southampton.ac.uk/ageingcentre/index.page
Abstract: This research investigates the trajectory of cognitive function amongst older people in China over the period of time 2002 to 2014 using the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) data. The research investigates the existence of the Flynn effect (ie James Flynn, also referred to as the 'secular rise in IQ scores') with respect to cognitive function of older people. That is, that the cognitive function test scores of older people from younger generations are higher than those older people from older generations. In addition, this research estimates the transition of cognitive function for older people using the method of continuous time homogeneous Markov process. The results provide useful evidence for estimates of the demand for long-term care for older people with dementia in China.
Dr Xiaoting Liu is an Associate Professor, in the School of Public Affairs, at Zhejiang University, China. Dr Liu has published within the fields of health insurance, health care reform in China, long-term care, informal care and intergenerational transfers in later life and is a Visiting Fellow in the Centre for Research on Ageing and also collaborates with staff in the ESRC Centre for Population Change.
Sunday, December 8th 2019 - Wednesday, December 11th 2019
Winter Simulation Conference 2019 (Conferences)

Gaylord National Resort & Conference Center National Harbor, Maryland
Sunday, December 8th 2019
Sunday, December 8th 2019
The theme of Winter Simulation Conference 2019 is "Simulation for Risk Management"
WSC 2019 will focus on the use of simulation to address a wide range of individual and societal risks.
CPC members Jakub Bijak and Martin Hinsch have published a conference paper on "Developing Agent-based migration models in pairs". Find the paper here: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/432966/1/Paper_WinterSim_2019.pdf
Friday, December 6th 2019
CPC Seminar - The problem of Chinese low fertility and low fertility trap (Seminars and lectures)
Guangzhou Wang
University of Southampton, Building 100, Room 7011
Friday, December 6th 2019
14:00-15:00
What is the real Chinese total fertility rate? This has been one of the biggest research questions in China for many years. Guangzhou Wang will be discussing the history and consequences of misunderstanding census and survey data.
In 2013, Chinese family planning policy adjusted to a conditional two-child policy and from 2015, Chinese couples could have two-child unconditionally.
Looking at related research from before and after the 2013 policy adjustment, Guangzhou analyses the influence of family planning policy and the effect on TFR.
According to the ideal number of birth, fertility intention and the fertility rate of parity progression, he will also analyse the low fertility trap problem with a background of urbanization and education improvement in China.
Monday, December 2nd 2019 - Tuesday, November 5th 2019
European Doctoral School of Demography (Seminars and lectures)
Barcelona
Monday, December 2nd 2019
Monday, December 2nd 2019
Brienna Perelli-Harris will be presenting during theory course “Fertility, family and the life course (consequences)”
Thursday, November 28th 2019
CPC Seminar - Spatial Variation in Fertility across Europe (Seminars and lectures)

Nicholas Campisi
Ladywell House, Edinburgh EH12 7TF Room (1/G9)
Thursday, November 28th 2019
12:00-13:00
This Centre for Population Change seminar will be held on 28 November at Ladywell House. Ladywell Road, Edinburgh EH12 7TF (12-1pm. Room 1/G/9). Please let Esther Roughsedge (Esther.Roughsedge@nrscotland.gov.uk) know if you would like to attend and need to be signed in at Ladywell House. Also, please bring your own lunch as this won't be provided.
Nicholas Campisi from the University of St Andrews will present:
Title: Spatial Variation in Fertility across Europe
Abstract: Two groups of countries have emerged in Europe over the last 20 years. The first group includes countries with very low fertility and the second includes countries with (relatively) high fertility just below the replacement level. Patterns of change are well studied using single-country studies but continental patterns creating these groups is not well understood. This project first examines how local patterns of fertility across 21 European countries contribute to continental trends in 2010, the height of bifurcation. We provide a single framework to examine fertility variation between local areas that accounts for the role of economic, spatial, and social contexts and show that continental patterns of urbanization, economic growth, and sociocultural freedoms are related to fertility variation across space. The project then focuses on recent fertility decline in high-fertility countries. Recent research suggests that converging fertility rates between socioeconomic groups contribute to national-level declines in the Nordic countries. This research examines fertility in Nordic municipalities since 2010 to understand if a convergence across geographies is also contributing to fertility decline and employs spatial modeling to understand what factors are related to spatial trends. We find that variation between geographies is not converging as expected and is diverging in some cases. Results from spatial modeling show that fertility variation is related to economic factors, the structure of the marriage market, and differences in family values between municipalities. Patterns of ‘relative importance’ are also related to fertility change within municipalities over time, as some factors are more related to fertility in urban places than rural and vice versa. We ultimately contribute a spatial perspective to fertility patterns often studied at the national level but neglected in relevant research and find strong evidence for subnational spatial variation that is related to recent trends in fertility.
Monday, November 25th 2019 - Wednesday, November 27th 2019
Eurostat-UNECE Work session on demographic projections (Workshops)
Belgrade
Monday, November 25th 2019
Monday, November 25th 2019
CPC researcher Jason Hilton is presenting working paper 10: "Comparing fertility forecasting methods: how do parametric mixture models perform?". Research with Erengul Dodd, Jonathan J. Forster, Peter W.F Smith and Jakub Bijak.
Summary
Recent comprehensive work by Bohk-Ewald et al. (2018) has found that few fertility forecasting
methods perform better than the naive 'freeze rates' method, whereby the last observed fertility rate
for each age is taken as the forecast for all future time-points. However, that paper is primarily
concerned with the ability of methods to forecasting completed cohort fertility; while this is an
important objective, many important applications of fertility forecasts rely on accuracy at the level
of age-specific fertility rates. Forecasts of the number of births for future years require the timing of
each cohort's fertility and not just their ultimate level. In practice, models that perform well in
forecasting completed cohort fertility may also be accurate at the lower level of aggregation.
However, empirical tests are needed to confirm this.
A number of best-performing models of fertility identified by Bohk-Ewald and colleagues are
assessed by using the root mean-squared error and empirical coverage calculated over a range of
countries, using data from the Human Fertility Database. A model developed by the authors that
employs parametric mixture models to forecast fertility is also assessed. A range of different
choices for the forms of the mixture components are compared, and it is found that this family of
models is competitive with the best-performing competitor fertility forecasting models. This result
contrasts with the results of Bohk-Ewald et al., who suggest that parametric models do not perform
well in forecasting contexts. This contradictory finding can be attributed to the fact that our model
allows dependency between adjacent cohorts through time series priors on the model parameters.
Monday, November 18th 2019
Social Informatics 2019 (Conferences)
Doha, Qatar
Monday, November 18th 2019
Francesco Rampazzo presented on work with Agnese Vitali, Emilio Zagheni and Ingmar Webber on using Facebook and LFS data to model migrant stocks in the UK
Friday, November 15th 2019 - Monday, November 18th 2019
Society for Judgment and Decision Making The 2019 40th Annual Conference (Conferences)
Montreal Convention Center, Montreal, Quebec
Friday, November 15th 2019
Friday, November 15th 2019
Toby Prike will be presenting CPC research during the Sunday morning poster session.
Poster: "Generalizing Financial Decision Making to Other Domains"
Prike, Toby (University of Southampton); Bijak, Jakub (University of Southampton); Higham, Philip A. (University of Southampton)
Tuesday, November 12th 2019
Transforming the future of ageing (Workshops)
Brussels
Tuesday, November 12th 2019
CPC Director Jane Falkingham will be taking part in a meeting held by the European Commission on the topic of 'Transforming the future of ageing'.
With this meeting, the Group aims to gain critical insights into emerging areas for possible recommendations on social conditions enabling healthy ageing, and the sustainability and fairness of late-life care.
Friday, November 8th 2019
ESRC Festival of Social Science: The generation game - is it fair? (Public engagement events)

University of Southampton
Friday, November 8th 2019
Our society is changing at an extraordinary rate. As housing prices and life expectancies rise, we face new challenges and opportunities to influence and shape future communities. This event aims to talk to young people about fairness and provision in society, and ask them about their expectations for the future.
We ask students to take on the roles of councillors, planners, policy-makers or pensions analysts, to solve a ‘problem’. With limited budgets and diverse priorities, who will they help and why? What services are available, and how can funds be raised? CPC researchers will be on hand to shed light on how they might use latest research findings to make decisions. Through discussion, young people and researchers can explore myths and assumptions to address core conflicts within our society.
The event allows young people to understand complex economic and social issues affecting them today, and in the future, and the gain perspective from the point of our leaders and policy makers. In the spirit in generational exchange, it also allows our researchers to discuss important findings with the young people it will affect, and to hear their views.
Thursday, November 7th 2019
Ending Pensioner Poverty (Public engagement events)
London
Thursday, November 7th 2019
As part of the Festival of Social Sciences, Nele Van Der Wielen presented CPC-CRA-APHRC research on "The Kenyan Older Persons Cash Transfer Programme" as part of a panel debate on Pensioner Poverty.
Monday, November 4th 2019
Expert Meeting: Freedom of Choice - The Foundation of Family Policies in Europe? (Workshops)
German Embassy, 34 Belgrave Square, SW1X 8QB, London
Monday, November 4th 2019
The aim of this event is to discuss the foundation and the future directions of family and reproductive health policies based on empirical evidence provided by eminent scholars, and experiences of decision-makers and experts from policy and civil society organisations. We will focus on the situation in Germany and Great Britain without losing sight of developments in other European countries.
CPC member Brienna Perelli-Harris is presenting a keynote talk on "Partnership formation and economic precarity: Implications for policy in the UK"
Thursday, October 17th 2019 - Saturday, October 19th 2019
Divorce Conference 2019 (Conferences)

Florence, Italy
Thursday, October 17th 2019
Thursday, October 17th 2019
The following CPC members will be speaking at Divorce Conference in October 2019.
Friday October 18th
10.50 Session 4 Economic consequences of divorce (chair: Stefani Scherer)
Hill Kulu, Júlia Mikolai and Sergi Vidal
Getting Back on the Housing Ladder? Separation and Homeownership in Britain and Germany
13.50 Session 5 Determinants of divorce (chair: Michael Wagner)
Sebastian Stannard, Ann Berrington and Nisreen A. Alwan
Understanding the Inter-Generational Transmission of Complex Family Trajectories
Saturday, October 19th
Session 1
Júlia Mikolai and Hill Kulu
Union dissolution and divorce among ethnic minorities in Britain
Programme: https://2019divorceconference.files.wordpress.com/2019/07/preliminary-program-divorce-conference-2019-2.pdf
Friday, October 4th 2019
CPC Seminar - SociaLab: A Census-based simulation tool for policy inquiry (Seminars and lectures)

Peter Davies
54/8031
Friday, October 4th 2019
15:00-16:00
SociaLab: A census-based simulation tool for public policy inquiry
Professor Peter Davis
It is usually neither practical nor ethical to conduct large-scale experiments in public policy with standard methodologies. One alternative for the prior testing of policy options is to use simulation, a prime contemporary example being climate change projections.
A tool – SociaLab – was developed for the counterfactual modelling of public policy drawing on longitudinal data from the New Zealand census and using microsimulation techniques. The seminar will outline the background, construction and counterfactual modelling results from the tool.
SociaLab potentially provides an open-source tool for deliberative inquiry in policy development. It has now been fully written up in Simulating Societal Change, co-authored with Roy Lay-Yee, and published by Springer in the series Computational Social Sciences.
Peter Davis is Honorary Professor in the Department of Statistics and Emeritus Professor in Population Health and Social Science at the University of Auckland. Earlier in his career, he was the founding director of the Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences (COMPASS) in the Faculty of Arts and before that a health and applied sociologist in the Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences. He has an undergraduate degree from Southampton, Masters degrees in Sociology and in Statistics from the London School of Economics, and a PhD from Auckland.
Thursday, October 3rd 2019
Thames Estuary Growth Day (Other)

Jane Falkingham
CentrEd at ExCeL, Royal Victoria Dock, 1 Western Gateway, London E16 1XL
Thursday, October 3rd 2019
CPC Director Professor Jane Falkingham will be presenting and participating in a panel debate "Who are we building homes for?", at the annual Thames Estuary Growth Day.
The government has announced a multimillion pound package of commitments to drive forward growth for the Thames Estuary. Ambitious plans are in place to create 1.3 million new jobs, build a million new homes, and generate an extra £190 billion for the local economy. The Thames Estuary Growth Day will offer a day of presentations and discussions to explore how these plans can deliver growth and what opportunities for
development will be unlocked.
Now in its third year, previous events have been attended by more than 250 delegates, including members and senior officers from 23 local authorities in east London, Kent and Essex and senior personnel from the private sector.
This event is the only one of its kind, bringing all the key stakeholders in the future of the Thames Estuary together during one day, to draw national attention to this debate.
Saturday, September 21st 2019
CEPR European Conference on Household Finance 2019 (Conferences)

Hector Calvo Pardo,
Rhodes
Saturday, September 21st 2019
09:45
Hector Calvo Pardo will be presenting 'Subjective Return Expectations, Inattention and Stock Market Participation' at 09:45-10:30 on Saturday 21 September 2019 as part of the CEPR European Conference on Household Finance 2019. For more information please find the programme online here: https://cepr.org/5728/programme
Thursday, September 19th 2019
CPC Seminar - Career Ecosystem (Seminars and lectures)

Yehuda Baruch
University of Southampton, Building 58 Room 1023
Thursday, September 19th 2019
15:00-16:00
The next Centre for Population Change seminar will be held on 19 September in building 58, room 1023, 15:00-16:00. Yehuda Baruch from the University of Southampton, is going to give a talk entitled, Career Ecosystem.
Abstract: The presentation offers a novel theoretical lens an ecosystem theory of careers whereby new forms of institutional work arrangements emerge in response to changes in the environment. Careers and career management have changed significantly in the past generation, and labour markets have become more dynamic, with an overriding demand for flexibility due to the needs and requirements of both organizations and individuals. This meant that the psychological contract, which is the bedrock of work relations, has changed too. The new normal is characterized by posts carrying varied obligations and expectations that come in varying work configurations.
The ecosystem theory is applied to careers and labour markets. Labour markets, global labour market included, are presented as an ecosystem (Baruch, 2015; Baruch et al., 2016; Baruch & Rousseau, 2019) where a number of players act and interact with each other. The main thrust of this idea is that of perpetuum mobileanything and everything are in continuous flux.
The Actors in the system are individuals, institutions and nations. Individuals act, interact and communicate. There is interconnectedness across the actors within different levels of analysis, adding to the complexity. Interactions take place, most notably the exchange of labour for wages, as well as the host of pertinent regulations and laws, such as employment and migration laws at the national level; and policies and strategies at the firm level. In the context of interdependency, different actors bring their needs, expectations, and offer their contributions. Robust ecosystem leads to overall effectiveness whereas fragile ecosystem might diminish.
Thursday, September 12th 2019 - Saturday, September 14th 2019
ECSR European Consortium for Sociological Research (Conferences)
University of Lausanne, Switzerland
Thursday, September 12th 2019
Thursday, September 12th 2019
Monday, September 9th 2019 - Wednesday, September 11th 2019
CPC Poster Session at BSPS (Conferences)

Cardiff
Monday, September 9th 2019
Monday, September 9th 2019
CPC will be celebrating our 10th year of research with colleagues and supporters in the BSPS community. In addition to the CPC member representation at the conference, we are sponsoring the first evening poster session. Please join us for some cake, a drink, and to hear all about our research over the last 10 years.
The British Society for Population Studies conference is an important part of the CPC calendar year, providing a forum for us to share our work and get feedback from the UK’s top population.
Find out more about the event: http://www.lse.ac.uk/social-policy/research/Research-clusters/british-society-for-population-studies/annual-conference
Monday, September 9th 2019 - Wednesday, September 11th 2019
British Society for Population Studies Conference 2019 (Conferences)

Various
Cardiff
Monday, September 9th 2019
Monday, September 9th 2019
Monday 09 September 2019
13:30-15:00
Session: Data Quality
Title: Data quality in mixed mode mixed-device general population UK social survey: Evidence from the Understanding Society Wave 8
Authors: Maslovskaya, Durrant & Smith
Session: Ageing: Informal & formal care
Title: Pathways into informal care provision
Authors: Fuglsang-Palmer, Vlachantoni, Evandrou
16:45-18:15
Session: Telling the story in statistics 1
Title: Maximising partnerships to communicate demographic research
Authors: McGowan, Dey, Falkingham
Session: Families & Households: Divorce & Partnership transitions
Title: Union dissolution and divorce among ethnic minorities in Britain
Authors: Mikolai, Kulu
Session: Families & Households: Divorce & Partnership transitions
Title: Getting Back on the Housing Ladder? Separation and Homeownership in Britain and Germany
Authors: Kulu, Mikolai, Vidal
Session: Families & Households: Divorce & Partnership transitions
Title: Relationship quality indicators and living apart together union transitions
Authors: Ciritel, Berrington, Perrelli-Harris
Session: Families & Households: Divorce & Partnership transitions
Title: How does information spread affect migration routes? Insights from simulation modelling
Authors: Hinsch, Bijak
Tuesday 10 September 2019
11:00-12:30
Session: Fertility & reproductive health: Geographical & environmental influences on fertility & reproductive health
Title: Subnational variations in European fertility: the Nordic countries
Authors: Campisi
Session: Families & households: Intergenerational effects
Title: Understanding the intergenerational transmission of complex family trajectories
Authors: Stannard, Berrington, Alwan
Session: Innovative statistical models for estimation & forecasting
Title: Comparing fertility forecasting methods
Authors: Hilton, Dodd, Forster, Smith, Bijak
16:45-18:15
Session: Innovative data & methods
Title: Probalistic methods for combining traditional & social media bilateral migration data
Authors: Yildiz, Wisniowski, Abel
Session: Innovative data & methods
Title: Using digital traces to measure European migrant population in the UK by combining the Labour Force Survey and Facebook advertising data
Authors: Rampazzo, Bijak, Vitali, Weber, Zagheni
Session: Feminist approaches: Gender, work & production
Title: Women's economic empowerment in sub-Saharan Africa: A cross-national analysis using DHS data
Authors: Williams, Väisänen, Padmadas
Wednesday 11 September
09:00-11:00
Session: Ageing: Ageing, health & poverty
Title: Understanding the impact and targeting efficiency of Kenya's Older Persons Cash Transfer Programme
Authors: van der Wielen, Chepngeno-Langat, Evandrou, Falkingham
Session: Fertility: Abortion
Title: The different decisions after conceiving as a teenager: how the proportions of teenage pregnancies leading to abortion vary through England in 1998-2016
Authors: Heap, Berrington, Ingham
Session: Fertility: Abortion
Title: Understanding misoprostol use and health literacy among women obtaining medication abortions in Lagos
Authors: Väisänen, Moore, Owolabi, Stillman, Fatusi, Akinyemi
Session: Health: Public health
Title: Determinants of inequalities in low birth weight in Sri Lanka: The evidence from the first post-war Demographic and Health Survey-2016
Authors: Abeywickrama, Padmadas, Hinde
11:30-15:00
Session: Health & mortality: The life course & health
Title: Health that shapes health: The menopause and changes in health behaviours
Authors: La Valle, Channon, Väisänen
Session: Families & households: Multigenerational households, kin & friendship networks
Title: Intergenerational support and its impact on the health status of older people in China
Authors: Yang, Evandrou, Vlachantoni
Tuesday, August 20th 2019 - Friday, August 23rd 2019
ESA Conference 2019 (Conferences)

Albert Sabater; Helen Kowlewska
Manchester
Tuesday, August 20th 2019
Tuesday, August 20th 2019
Albert Sabater and Helen Kolewska will be presenting at ESA Conference 2019 in Manchester.
Wednesday 21 August 2019
11:00-12:30; UP.4.211
Helen Kowalewska: Bringing Women on Board? Women-Friendly' Welfare States and Gender Balance in Top Jobs
Welfare states enable women's employment through the family policies they provide and the jobs they create. Hence, researchers, the press, and politicians hail Scandinavian societies as a gender equality 'paradise' and a role model for the UK due to their generous public sectors. Yet, Mandel and Semyonov (2006) identify a welfare state 'paradox': 'women-friendly' social policies also make it harder for women to progress to managerial roles. However, missing from existing research is a consideration of how welfare states shape womens access to the very top board and executive positions specifically. This distinction matters because women in top management are best placed to effect organisational changes (e.g. occupational childcare, sexual harassment training) that can help lower-earning women to reconcile employment and care and secure their financial wellbeing as well as their body rights (Kowalewska, submitted).
To contribute to filling this gap, this paper analyses the relationship between women-friendly state interventions and gender balance in top-management positions across 17 OECD countries via a Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA). The latest data reveal that womens access to board positions is accelerating in the Nordics but stalling in liberal economies like the UK; hence, other factors (e.g. gender boardroom legislation) potentially offset the negative effects of women-friendly policies on womens occupational advancement. QCA can illuminate if this is the case, as it treats cases as wholes, focusing on how conditions combine with each other in producing an outcome. Data will come from the International Social Survey Programme, the OECD, the World Bank, and Deloitte. In turn, the analysis can illuminate whether women-friendly state interventions always come at the price of womens access to the most powerful jobs.
Wednesday 21 August 2019
16:00-17:30; BS.4.06A
Albert Sabater: Ageing, Housing Affordability and Spatial Age Segregation: Evidence from the UK
In most post-industrial ageing societies, the patterns of spatial age differentiation that exist are comparatively recent phenomena. In the UK, the current policy focus on ageing in place highlights one possible mechanism expected to increase spatial age segregation. However, the potential consequences of the so-called affordability crisis the fact that both owner-occupied and private rental housing have become increasingly unaffordable have so far been neglected. Building on previous work, this paper examines trends in spatial age segregation and provides evidence of the impact of housing unaffordability on the patterns of intergenerational space within the UK context. Combining harmonised data from 2001 and 2011 Censuses as well as rich housing market data (property sales and rentals) and income estimates for small areas, we first investigate whether, and to what degree, communities along the urban-rural continuum are becoming residentially segregated by age. Second, we study whether residential age segregation between older (aged 65 and over) and younger (aged 25-44) adults is connected to housing (dis)advantage. The results confirm an increasing trend in the age differentiation of urban and rural communities over time, and indicate that areas with higher unaffordability levels are becoming more residentially age segregated. This pattern of reduced spatial interaction between older and younger adults highlights that there is an important socioeconomic dimension to spatial age segregation. Our findings reveal that housing unaffordability is partly responsible for the lower spatial interaction between older and younger adults. Thus, we argue in this paper that a fundamental shift is needed among the group of actors who are involved in place-making and place-shaping of different communities to avoid the emergence of generationed spaces in contemporary ageing societies.
Tuesday, July 2nd 2019 - Thursday, July 4th 2019
Understanding Society Conference (Conferences)

Various
University of Essex
Tuesday, July 2nd 2019
Tuesday, July 2nd 2019
CPC involvement at Understanding Society Conference 2019:
July 2nd
Session 1 Employment and Family
Precarity and relationship quality in the UK: long-term economic uncertainty, employment shocks and perceptions of future financial outlook
13:30-14:00 Brienna Perelli-Harris
July 3rd
Plenary: family dynamics among immigrants and their descendents in Europe
11:00-12:00 Hill Kulu keynote speaker
Session 4 Partnership and employment
The relationship between economic precariousness and union formation of young British adults
14:00-14:30 Lydia Palumbo
July 4th
Session 7 Event History Analyses
The transition to parenthood among Britain's 'generation rent': examining the changing role of housing tenure
14:15-15:15 Ann Berrington
Monday, July 1st 2019
CPC Seminar - Population Aging and Sustainable Economic Growth in China (Seminars and lectures)
Prof Yang Chenggang
06/1083
Monday, July 1st 2019
15:00-16:00
This seminar is organised by the Centre for Population Change, the Centre for Ageing and the China Research Centre.
Prof Yang Chenggang from the Population Research Institute at Southwestern University of Finance & Economics in Chengdu, will be presenting on Population Aging and Sustainable Economic Growth in China.
Refreshments will be served in 58/2041 following the seminar.
Abstract: China's past rapid economic growth has been praised by the whole world. It has also attracted attention whether China can continue to maintain rapid economic growth in the future, and whether it can cross the middle income trap. There are various disputes and even worries about this issue in China. Some of the reasons for anxiety are derived from China's population problems, such as the decreasing of the demographic dividend and the growing aging population.
The impact of population aging: The exploration mainly focuses on two major problems: (1) From the perspective of production, is the elderly population still productive? can it contribute to China's future economic growth? (2) From consumption and from the perspective of support, can the Chinese economy bear the burden of increasing old-age support?
The final conclusion: Although China's economy is severely challenged by the ageing of population, we can still maintain a positive and optimistic attitude towards the future development of China. Based on the family culture and intergenerational support within the Chinese society, it can produce the shadow dividend of the elderly population and it can help to maintain the higher market participation rate of young female working population and thus supports the development of the Chinese economy. At the same time, the level of development and labor productivity that the Chinese economy has achieved has enabled the Chinese economy to withstand the burden of old-age support brought about by the aging of the population. Therefore, we can believe China will keep sustainable economic growth and will successfully cross the middle income trap.
Thursday, June 20th 2019
CPC Seminar - Preferences to life expectancy - new findings from international surveys (Seminars and lectures)

Vegard Skirbekk
University of Southampton, Building 54 / 1039
Thursday, June 20th 2019
15:00-16:00
The Centre for Population Change seminar will be held on 20 June 2019 in Building 54, Room 1039, 15:00-16:00. Vegard Skirbekk from Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health (NY) is going to give the project 'Preferences to life expectancy - new findings from international surveys'.
After the talk, refreshments will be served in room 2041 on level 2 in Building 58.
Abstract: One of the most important changes that have taken place in the history of humanity has been the radical extensions taking place to life expectancy. Yet, in spite of mortality decreases being concentrated at higher and higher ages, there have been few studies on how long people want to live. Why do some people want to live a very long time, while others would rather die relatively young? We provide evidence from unique surveys on preferences to life expectancy based on surveys from a set of different countries. We use data from Germany, the US, Norway, Poland, Russia, Austria and Thailand. We present findings on preferences to the length of life across these countries. We show how these differ by individual risk factors, gender and education. We find that the extent to which the preference to die young or to live somewhat longer or much longer than average life expectancy is related to a person's positive and negative expectations of what their life will be like in old age. Having fewer positive expectations for their own old age distinguishes people who prefer to die relatively young, while having fewer negative expectations distinguishes people who want to live beyond current levels of life expectancy. The results provide evidence that pessimistic expectations of life in old age can undermine the desire to live up to and beyond current average life expectancy.
Thursday, June 20th 2019
CPC Seminar - Comparing migrant mortality versus origin: results consistent with selection hypothesis (Seminars and lectures)

Matthew Wallace
Ladywell House, Edinburgh EH12 7TF Room (1/G/8)
Thursday, June 20th 2019
13:00-14:00
Abstract: A migrant mortality advantage occurs when international migrants live longer than non-migrants. This phenomenon is well documented, but often only conceptualized and estimated relative to destination populations. Here, we re-conceptualize and re-estimate the advantage relative to origin populations, providing new insight into its patterns and causes. Specifically, we calculate and compare the all-cause mortality and tertiary level educational attainment levels of the thirty-five largest migrant groups in England and Wales to their origin country populations. We use age-sex-origin-specific macro-level data from the Office for National Statistics, Human Mortality Database, United Nations World Population Prospects, and Wittgenstein Center Data Explorer. We find that nearly all migrant groups experience an age-adjusted (20+) mortality advantage-versus-origin and -destination, with variation in the size of the former linked to origin country development level. When we examine specific ages, we find the advantage-versus-origin to be most pronounced at peak migration ages and to diminish thereafter. For tertiary-level educational attainment, migrants were near systematically advantaged over age. Our findings are consistent with selection hypothesis as a pervasive explanation of the migrant mortality advantage. Moreover, we demonstrate the value of estimating the advantage-versus-origin and its potential role as a valuable complement to comparisons between migrants and the destination population.
Thursday, June 20th 2019 - Saturday, June 22nd 2019
26th International Conference of Europeanists (Conferences)
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Thursday, June 20th 2019
Thursday, June 20th 2019
Professor Derek McGhee and Dr Chris Moreh will be presenting their paper: The 'Brexit' effect on the life satisfaction of Poles in the UK
Thursday, May 30th 2019
CPC Seminar - Outcomes of only children across the life course: analysis using Swedish registry data (Seminars and lectures)

Katy Keenan
Ladywell House, Edinburgh EH12 7TF Room (1/G/8)
Thursday, May 30th 2019
13:00-14:00
Abstract:
Increasing postponement and fertility decline in Europe mean that the proportion of children who grow up as only children is increasing, and will likely continue to increase in the coming decades. Recent analysis of Swedish data has found that only children have one of the highest mortality rates of all sibling groups, but the mechanism remains unclear. In this study we attempt to unravel this apparent health disparity using Swedish administrative data which measures health and social outcomes at various stages throughout the life course. We investigate educational and health outcomes in adolescence and early adulthood, and mortality patterns, and attempt to adjust for various confounding factors and selection mechanisms that might account for the relative poorer health of only children. Results are discussed within the context of changing fertility patterns in Europe.
Friday, May 24th 2019
CPC Seminar - Subnational variation and determinants of European fertility (Seminars and lectures)

Nicholas Campisi
University of Southampton, Building 54, Room 8033 (8B)
Friday, May 24th 2019
15:00-16:00
The Centre for Population Change seminar will be held on 24 May 2019 in Building 54, Room 8033 (8B), 15:00-16:00. Nicholas Campisi from the University of St Andrews is going to give a talk entitled, 'Subnational variation and determinants of European fertility'.
After the talk, refreshments will be served in room 2041 on level 2 in Building 58.
Abstract: Since 2000, European fertility has split into two distinct groups - countries with high fertility just below replacement level total fertility, and countries with very low fertility. Countries with high fertility include those in the 'Nordic Welfare Regime' that are seen as leaders in fertility trends and forerunners of increased fertility due to their high levels of social democracy. However, since 2010, the Nordic countries have also experienced decreases in fertility that are expected to reduce fertility to levels similar to the low fertility group. Prior research also demonstrates both the persistence and importance of differences between urban fertility and rural fertility; in which urban places with high population density and relatively low fertility lead rural places with low population density and higher fertility in fertility transitions. However, the role of urban places in recent fertility declines is still unclear, especially in light of recent changes to fertility-determinant relationships. The aim of this PhD project is to understand what relationships contribute to modern European fertility patterns and what decreases will mean for future patterns and the goal of replacement level fertility.
This project begins by first analyzing fertility in small geographic units across 21 European countries to assess the relationships between fertility and economic, sociocultural, and spatial determinants. It then continues by focusing on four countries with decreasing fertility - Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Results demonstrate persistent patterns of local fertility, despite national-level convergence. Significant relationships between fertility and economic, sociocultural, and spatial factors are demonstrated across Europe, providing direction in light of changing fertility-determinant relationships. Preliminary Nordic analysis demonstrates distinct patterns by country and geography, with two distinct patterns: one of convergence and one of lag.
Thursday, May 16th 2019
CPC Seminar - Fertility under fundamental uncertainty (Seminars and lectures)

Daniele Vignoli
University of Southampton, Building 54 Room 7033 (7C)
Thursday, May 16th 2019
15:00-16:00
The Centre for Population Change seminar will be held on 16 May 2019 in Building 54, Room 7033 (room 7C), 15:00-16:00. Daniele Vignoli from the University of Florence is going to give a talk entitled, 'Fertility under fundamental uncertainty'.
After the talk, refreshments will be served in room 2041 on level 2 in Building 58.
Abstract:The increasing speed, dynamics, and volatility of outcomes of globalization makes it increasingly difficult for individuals to predict their future and choose between alternatives and strategies. This generates an unprecedented level of fundamental economic uncertainty, which, we argue, represents the game-changer in contemporary societies and family life courses. So far, the forces of uncertainty have been operationalized through objective indicators of individuals' labor market situation and through their subjective perception. This presentation reviews main macro- and micro-level evidence on the relation between economic uncertainty and fertility. Beside empirical tradition, we argue that fundamental uncertainty needs to be conceptualized and operationalized taking into account that people use works of imagination, producing their own narrative of the future - namely, imagined futures embedded in social elements and their interactions. These personal narratives of the future are anchored in existing cultural and institutional frames, as well as public images produced by press and social media. The narratives of the future become potent driving forces of reproductive decisions in spite of uncertainty, irrespective of structural constraints and their subjective perception. The talk ends by offering prospects of research on the topic.
More information can be found Daniele's project website: https://danielevignoli.com/
Thursday, April 25th 2019
CPC Seminar - How can the recent stalling of life expectancy gains in Scotland be best explained? (Seminars and lectures)

Julie Ramsay & Maria Kaye-Bardgett
Ladywell House, Edinburgh EH12 7TF Room (1/G/8)
Thursday, April 25th 2019
13:00-14:00
Abstract:
Annual gains in life expectancy in Scotland have been slower in recent years than in previous decades. Similar trends have been observed in England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the USA. This analysis explores the contribution of specific causes of death to mortality by age and cause in the two periods 2000-02 to 2012-14 and 2012-14 to 2015-17.
Life expectancy at birth was calculated from death and population counts available from National Records of Scotland disaggregated by five year age categories and by ICD-10 underlying cause of death. Arriaga’s method of life expectancy decomposition was used to produce estimates of the contribution of different age groups and underlying causes of death to life expectancy at birth for each period.
This presentation will explain the results obtained so far, and discuss the plans to extend the analysis to look at the impact of deprivation on life expectancy trends.
Wednesday, April 24th 2019
AgeUK Dissemination Event: Carers in Mid-Life (Other)

Athina Vlachantoni
AgeUK London Headquarters
Wednesday, April 24th 2019
10:00-13:00
This is a dissemination event for the research project 'Extending our understanding of informal care provision in mid-life in the UK by linking qualitative and quantitative data in the National Child Development Study', relating to Briefing Papers 46 & 47.
Briefing Paper 46: Informal caring in mid-life and its economic consequences
Briefing Paper 47: Social participation and health outcomes among carers in Great Britain
Wednesday, April 24th 2019 - Friday, April 26th 2019
British Sociological Association Annual Conference (Conferences)

Various
Glasgow Caledonian University
Wednesday, April 24th 2019
Wednesday, April 24th 2019
CPC involvement at the 2019 BSA Annual Conference 'Challenging Social Hierarchies and Inequalities':
Agnese Vitali and Helen Kowalewska
Thursday 25 April 11:00 – 12:30 Work, Employment &Economic Life B
Work/Family Arrangements across the OECD: The Emergence of the Female-Breadwinner Model
Albert Sabater, Nissa Finney and Elspeth Graham,
Wednesday 24 April 15:30-17:00, Paper Session 3 – Cities, Mobilities, Place and Space
(Inter)generational Geographies and Housing (Dis)advantages Between Older and Younger Adults in Urban Areas
Full list of abstracts
Wednesday, April 10th 2019 - Saturday, April 13th 2019
PAA Annual Meeting (Conferences)

Various
Austin, TX, USA
Wednesday, April 10th 2019
Wednesday, April 10th 2019
CPC members will be heading to Austin, Texas, for the Population Association of America (PAA) 2019 Annual Meeting between 10-13 April. The meeting brings together demographers, social and health scientists from the United States and abroad. Since PAA's first conference in 1930, much important research has been presented and discussed on topics ranging from migration to sexual reproductive health to race and gender issues.
Read more: http://www.cpc.ac.uk/news/latest_news/?action=story&id=644
Thursday, April 4th 2019 - Friday, April 5th 2019
5th Workshop on the Economics of Migration (Workshops)

Michel Beine, University of Luxembourg | Frédéric Docquier, Université Catholique de Louvain | Christina Gathmann, Heidelberg University
Esch-Belval, Luxembourg
Thursday, April 4th 2019
Thursday, April 4th 2019
The 5th Workshop on the Economics of Migration is organized by the Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER) and the Centre for Population Change (CPC) in order to give PhD students and early-stage researchers (post-docs and junior professors with less than 5 years of experience) an opportunity to share their work in a constructive environment,
as well as to exchange the results of recent research in different fields of migration economics.
Submissions of full original papers are invited by December 31, 2018.
Submissions and inquiries should be addressed by email to: econmigr@gmail.com.
Decisions about acceptance for presentation in the conference will be communicated by January 20, 2019.
Participation in the workshop is free and meals will be provided, although participants are expected to seek their own funding for travels and accommodation. Participants will receive updates on the workshop and a full programme as soon as possible.
Additional information is available at: http://sites.google.com/site/econmigr
The organizers: Joël Machado, Michele Tuccio and Jackline Wahba
Associated Downloads
Thursday, April 4th 2019
CPC Seminar - Immigration and its effect on the local area (Seminars and lectures)

Corrado Giulietti
University of Southampton, Building 54 Room 7033 (7C)
Thursday, April 4th 2019
15:00-16:00
Abstract: We explore the impact of local-level immigration on the location choices of UK-born residents. Our study aims at investigating three questions: a) does an increase in the inflow rate of immigrants causally lead to a displacement of UK-born residents? b) Does displacement increase segregation within a local authority? c) What are the prevalent mechanisms behind displacement, e.g. economic channels (such as labour market and house prices) or non-economic ones (such as attitudes towards immigrants)? To empirically analyse these questions, we match data from Understanding Society The UK Household Longitudinal Study with statistics on immigrant inflows in the neighbourhood (middle layer super output area) from the National Insurance number allocations of the Department for Work and Pensions (NINo). The core analysis hinges on panel data fixed effects models.
Thursday, March 28th 2019
CPC Seminar - Studying neighbourhood effects on pregnancy using administrative health records and quasi-experimental methods (Seminars and lectures)
Dr Tom Clemens
Room 1/G/8 Ladywell Road, Edinburgh EH12 7TF
Thursday, March 28th 2019
13:00-14:00
Abstract: We know that health outcomes vary spatially and that characteristics of neighbourhoods, such as the level of socio-economic derivation, are strongly associated with health. Whether these effects are due to differences in terms of population composition or whether there exist independent “contextual” effects of neighbourhoods has long been debated by Geographers. The policy implications of this debate remain important; do we focus policy on the area itself or the people in the area? Part of this debate concerns the empirical challenge of isolating one explanation from the other. Much of the available empirical evidence comes from cross-sectional observational studies. These studies compare different people between different areas where it is difficult to control for confounding resulting from underlying differences between populations. Administrative health data (i.e. data collected as part of routine healthcare) provides some opportunities to tackle this problem given the full population coverage and the repeated longitudinal collection of records over time. In this seminar, I will introduce some recent work where we have used administrative records to improve our understanding of both context and composition effects in the relationship between neighbourhood characteristics and pregnancy outcomes.
Friday, March 22nd 2019
SSD Seminar: European migration to the United Kingdom in the light of Facebook data (Seminars and lectures)
Francesco Rampazzo
University of Southampton, Building 28 Room 1019
Friday, March 22nd 2019
12:00
University of Southampton Social Sciences and Demography Departmental Seminar. CPC Student Francesco Rampazzo will give a presentation entitled 'European migration to the United Kingdom in the light of Facebook data'.
Thursday, March 21st 2019
CPC Seminar - Online Footprints of Family Change: a Study Based on Twitter (Seminars and lectures)
Nicolo Cavalli
University of Southampton, Building 54 Room 7033
Thursday, March 21st 2019
15:00-16:00
Authors: Nicolò Cavalli, Francesco C. Billari, Eric Qian, Ingmar Weber
Abstract:In this study, we build a large dataset ( > 5M observations) using a popular micro blogging platform, Twitter. By analysing self-reported biographical information of Twitter users located in the United States, we construct simple State-level indicators for the prevalence of traditional" versus modern" family roles. We show that our measures correlate spatially to real-world behavioural indices linked to the ideas of Second Demographic Transition and Gender Revolution. We also analyse specific cultural correlates to self-reported identities, aiming at capturing the heterogeneity of ideas about family that contributes to shaping socio-demographic change. Our approach provides an innovative way to map the cultural footprints that underlie family change, updating to the "Internet era" the Goffmanian research project concerned with the presentation of self in everyday life.
Thursday, March 21st 2019
Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline (Seminars and lectures)
Various
Central London
Thursday, March 21st 2019
18:30
CPC Director Professor Jane Falkingham will be speaking at this event hosted by Ipsos Mori in London. Further information can be found online here: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/empty-planet-shock-global-population-decline
Description: Ipsos MORI invites you to our upcoming event, Empty Planet, on the evening of 21st March.
While depopulation may provide many benefits, such as higher wages for workers, improving the environment and more autonomy for women, there are also disadvantages, such as worker shortages and ageing populations. This event will touch upon a wealth of research to illustrate the dramatic consequences of population decline, both good and bad, and you will hear from some of the prominent thinkers in the field.
Speakers:
Darrell Bricker, Chief Executive of Ipsos Public Affairs & author of Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline.
Eric Kaufmann, Professor of Politics at Birkbeck, University of London & author of Whiteshift: Populism, Immigration and the Future of White Majorities.
Professor Jane Falkingham, Demographer, Director of the ESRC Centre for Population Change, and Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Southampton
Robin Maynard, Director, Population Matters
Kelly Beaver, Managing Director, Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute (chair)
Saturday, March 16th 2019
Science and Engineering Day (Public engagement events)
University of Southampton
Saturday, March 16th 2019
10:30-16:30
The Southampton Science & Engineering Festival (SOTSEF) and Science & Engineering Day is back for 2019 with more exciting hands-on activities, shows, demonstrations, talks and tours!
Find the Centre for Population Change stand 'A Life Journey - How to get to 100 and enjoy it' in Building 67 between 10:30 and 16:30.
Find out more about the SOTSEF festival at http://www.sotsef.co.uk/science_&_engineering_day/
Wednesday, March 13th 2019
Informative Social Interactions - CREST Microeconomics Seminar (Seminars and lectures)
Hector Calvo-Pardo
CREST, Palaiseau cedex, France, room 3001
Wednesday, March 13th 2019
12:15-13:30
We design,
eld and exploit survey data from a representative sample of the French population to examine whether informative social
interactions enter householdsstockholding decisions. Respondents report perceptions about their circle of peers with whom they interact about financial
matters, their social circle and the population. We provide evidence for the presence of an information channel through which social interactions infuence
perceptions and expectations about stock returns, and financial behavior. We also find evidence of mindless imitation of peers in the outer social circle, but
this does not permeate as many layers of financial behavior as informative social interactions do.
Thursday, February 28th 2019
CPC Seminar - Exploring inequalities in end of life care with linked administrative data from Scotland (Seminars and lectures)
Dr Anna Schneider
Room 1/G/9, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, February 28th 2019
13:00-14:00
This talk presents findings from two papers of the 'Care at the end of life' study, the first study to link Scottish Census data with healthcare data and death records. The data linkage allows looking at trends in end of life care over time as well as to compare care use and provision for diverse population groups. The focus of the talk lies on inequalities in palliative care need and informal care availability, comparing people living in the most deprived areas of Scotland to those in the least deprived areas. Based on data from 110,283 cases, the analysis highlights that need for formal care and other types of support vary significantly between neighbourhoods, which is both a result of differences in informal care availability in patients' households as well as of differing illness trajectories.
Thursday, February 14th 2019 - Sunday, February 17th 2019
AAAS Annual Meeting (Public engagement events)
Washington, DC
Thursday, February 14th 2019
Thursday, February 14th 2019
CPC Interactive exhibition 'How to get to 100 and enjoy it!' will be showcased on the UKRI stand of the American Association for the Advancement of Science Annual Meeting in February 2019. The meeting theme is 'Science Transcending Boundaries' with a focus on climate change, ageing and security. Find out more at https://meetings.aaas.org/
The exhibition builds a bridge between experts with specialised knowledge and the broader public, not only by providing information but also by encouraging interactive participation of the audience. In doing so the exhibition brings the importance of holistic thinking about ageing to the forefront.
http://www.cpc.ac.uk/projects/21/How_to_get_to_100_and_enjoy_it_Interactive_exhibition_and_educational_resources#overview
Thursday, February 14th 2019
CPC Seminar - Globally Mapping Human Settlements in the Absence of Satellite Imagery (Seminars and lectures)
Jeremiah Nieves
University of Southampton, Building 54 Room 7033 (7C)
Thursday, February 14th 2019
15:00-16:00
Recently, urban feature datasets across time, derived from satellite imagery and global in extent, have become more available. Yet, the availability of these data exists for only a few time points leaving gaps in the growth of the built-settlement footprint through time, even as demand for these data sets grow. Here I have developed a semi-automated modelling framework that is applicable across the globe and capable of producing annual maps of settlement growth. This model leverages the latent temporal information from relative changes in population of subnational areas to estimate the magnitude of settlement changes and combines random forests with environmental covariates to predict the location-specific (100m x100m grid square) probability of non-settlement-to-settlement transitions. We then employ dasymetric mapping methods to spatially allocate these predicted changes in settlement extent. Further, the framework leverages the observed and interpolated settlement extents with the relationships to covariates to predict short-term future built-settlement extents. An initial validation of this framework, using annual ESA CCI “urban” landcover and predicting annually at 100m resolution, across four countries (Panama, Switzerland, Uganda, and Vietnam) between 2000 and 2015, with observations every five years, showed overall accuracies between 85-99% for 2/3 of predicted years (n=49), with consistent performance across countries.
Thursday, January 17th 2019
CPC Seminar - Effects of the Perceived Sustainability of Public Pension Systems on Social Policy Preferences: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Germany, Spain and the United States (Seminars and lectures)
Dr Jonas Radl
University of Southampton, Building 54 Room 10037
Thursday, January 17th 2019
15:00-16:00
A growing literature shows that popular attitudes towards public policy reforms are sensitive to issue knowledge. It is also widely believed that well-informed people tend to prefer different policy reforms than ill-informed people. We apply these general insights of public opinion research to the analysis of attitudes towards welfare reform in the wake of demographic ageing. Our study draws on new experimental evidence regarding three advanced democracies with ageing populations - Germany, Spain and United States. Based on newly conducted online surveys of the general population and an experimental approach, we examine how 'hard knowledge' is related to the support for concrete public policy reforms. Specifically, the paper analyzes how information on the financial sustainability of pension systems affects support for various avenues of welfare state reform. The first objective of the project is to ascertain how the random exposure to the treatment - which varies in content across the study countries - shapes attitudes toward social spending, and, in that case, what kinds of outcomes are most strongly affected. By exploiting variation in respondents' prior pension knowledge, our second objective is to find out to what extent measured impacts are driven by priming or information effects, respectively. Finally, we also set out to discover what individual characteristics (age, gender, education) moderate the information effect on policy preferences. The project has important implications for the dynamics of public discourse on welfare reform.
Wednesday, December 12th 2018 - Thursday, December 13th 2018
Female-Breadwinner Families Workshop (Workshops)
Royal Astronomical Society, London
Wednesday, December 12th 2018
Wednesday, December 12th 2018
Despite the increase of female-breadwinner families in developed countries (families in which women are the sole or main income provider), little is known about who these couples are, how and why they emerge, and what trends in female breadwinning mean for women, men and children.
Funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council under the Future Research Leaders scheme, grant number ES/N00082X/1.
Find out more about the project here: http://www.cpc.ac.uk/projects/57/Female_Breadwinner_Families_in_Europe#overview
Thursday, December 6th 2018
CPC Seminar - Grandparent Care: A Key Factor in Mothers' Labour Force Participation in the UK (Seminars and lectures)
Shireen Kanji
University of Southampton, Building 58 Room 1007 (L/R C)
Thursday, December 6th 2018
15:00-16:00
The relationships between paid work and informal care are critical to understanding how
paid work is made possible. An extensive source of childcare in the UK is the intergenerational care grandparents provide. Using data from the UK's Millennium Cohort Study, a nationally representative sample of children born in 2000, biprobit and instrumental variables (IV) analysis of mothers' participation (given the social construction of caring responsibility) identifies a significant causal effect of grandparents' childcare in that it:
(i) raises the labour force participation of mothers with a child of school entry age on
average by 12 percentage points (the average marginal effect);
(ii) raises the participation of the group of mothers who use grandparent childcare by 33
percentage points compared to the situation if they did not have access to this care (the
average treatment effect on the treated).
Thus grandparent-provided childcare has a substantial impact on the labour market in the
UK, an impact that may not be sustainable with forthcoming changes to the state pension age.
Grandparents' childcare increases the labour force participation of lone and partnered mothers at all levels of educational qualifications but by different degrees. Grandparents' childcare enables mothers to enter paid work rather than extending their hours of paid work. New evidence is presented on the effect of grandparent care on mothers' persistence in work.
Shireen Kanji is Reader in Work and Organisation at Birmingham Business School, University of Birmingham. Her work focuses on the connections between paid and unpaid work, production and reproduction. Her research is situated in the intersection of gender, work and social inequality. Current research includes the exploration of the actual and preferred working hours of older men and women in Europe.
Tuesday, December 4th 2018
University of Southampton and CPC Public Lecture Series - Mapping population movement (Seminars and lectures)
Royal Geographical Society, London
Tuesday, December 4th 2018
Monday, December 3rd 2018
CPC Seminar - Brexit and EU Student Migration: Evidence from a Natural Experiment (Seminars and lectures)
Professor Corrado Giulietti
Ladywell House, Edinburgh EH12 7TF Room (1/G/8)
Monday, December 3rd 2018
13:00-14:00
Professor Corrado Giulietti, University of Southampton will present:
Title: Brexit and EU Student Migration: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
Authors: Jane Falkingham, Corrado Giulietti, Jackline Wahba, Chuhong Wang
This paper represents the first attempt to study the causal impact of “Brexit”, namely the UK's departure from the European Union (EU), on the post-graduation mobility decisions of EU students in the UK. We exploit the British government's formal withdrawal notification under Article 50 as a natural experiment and employ a difference-in-differences design. Using data from a new survey of graduating international students, we find that EU graduating students are significantly more likely than non-EU graduating students to plan on leaving the UK upon graduation immediately after the announcement. Interestingly, results are especially driven by students from the new EU countries and students from the EU14 countries who are uncertain of their migration plans. We further show that the deterrent effects are heterogeneous and depend on age and subject among others. These findings carry important implications for the post-Brexit UK in transition and for European countries with emerging calls for their own referendums.
Friday, November 23rd 2018
CPC Seminar - Why do older people fall in love? Partnership transitions and family relations in later life (Seminars and lectures)
Anna Rotkirch
University of Southampton, Building 67, Room 1001
Friday, November 23rd 2018
12:00-13:00
Rates of divorce, remarriage, cohabitation and dating are rising among the elderly as the second demographic transition is now reshaping old age. This poses interesting new questions about the functions, benefits and costs of post-reproductive pair bonds, both to the individual and to family relations. Yet there is a lack of both empirical data and theoretical understanding about "gray" couple relations. Why do older people fall in love, or out of love? Why do so many women aged 50+ and with a new partner prefer not to marry? How does remarriage affect women's and men's relations to grandchildren?
My talk presents the rationale and first results of a new research on partnership dynamics in old age in Europe, using data from the UN marital database and the longitudinal study Generational Transmissions in Finland.
Anna Rotkirch is Research Professor and Director of Research at Population Research Institute, Väestöliitto, Finland.
http://bit.ly/loveage_project
Tuesday, November 20th 2018
University of Southampton and CPC Public Lecture Series - Uncertainty and complexity of migration (Seminars and lectures)
British Academy, London
Tuesday, November 20th 2018
The second event in our new Public Lecture Series, which focuses on population and migration issues, takes place on Tuesday 20 November and will examine the uncertainty and complexity of migration.
Human migration is very complex. In our increasingly interconnected world, people around the globe choose to move for many different reasons. Some do so in order to escape poverty, war or persecution; others seek new opportunities through jobs, study, family reunion, or try to improve their quality of life.
Tuesday, November 20th 2018 - Wednesday, November 21st 2018
Workshop: Uncertainty and Complexity of Migration (Workshops)
British Academy, London
Tuesday, November 20th 2018
Tuesday, November 20th 2018
Migration is multidimensional, complex and uncertain. These features, alongside with the underpinning agency of actors involved in migration, have been recently gaining prominence in academic literature. These developments parallel the exploration of computer simulations as tools of enquiry for population processes. There is a current need for a discussion on the potential and limits of such computational methods, on their knowledge and data requirements, and on the conditions for their usefulness for supporting migration policy. The workshop will explore these topics and more, in order to identify the best ways of implementing the current cutting-edge research ideas in practice.
The workshop is organised as a part of the ERC project on Bayesian Agent-Based Population Studies, under the auspices of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Populations. The associated public lecture event in the evening of 20 November will be co-financed and co-organised by the University of Southampton.
Register: https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/workshop-uncertainty-and-complexity-of-migration-tickets-50684630093
For more information regarding this event, please email Prof. Jakub Bijak at j.bijak@soton.ac.uk .
Monday, November 19th 2018
'Why the future of our population matters?' (Workshops)
Ann Berrington and Hill Kulu
British Embassy, Berlin, Germany
Monday, November 19th 2018
Why the future of our population matters?
Workshop offered by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Population Europe, British Embassy in Berlin / UK Science & Innovation Network, Generations and Gender Programme and the London School of Economics and Political Science.
Friday, November 16th 2018
Research Cafe on the topic of 'People and Brexit' - Human Worlds Festival (Public engagement events)
Professor Traute Meyer
Cafe#1, Portswood, Southampton
Friday, November 16th 2018
18:30 - 20:15
As part of the University of Southampton's Human Worlds Festival, a Research café discussion will take place Friday 16 November 18:30-20:15 at Café#1, Portswood Road Southampton, gathering together four experts on various elements of Brexit to talk about how people might be affected, focusing on EU nationals in particular. Professor Traute Meyer from the Centre of Population Change will discuss, 'Do EU migrants exploit the UK welfare state?
Thursday, November 15th 2018 - Friday, November 16th 2018
Family and Fertility over the Lifecourse (Other)
University of St Andrews
Thursday, November 15th 2018
Thursday, November 15th 2018
In the past decades, European societies have experienced significant changes in partnership, family and fertility dynamics. Marriage rates have declined in all European countries, non-marital cohabitation has become common, and divorce and separation have significantly increased. Childbearing has been postponed, but fertility levels fluctuate over time and vary across countries. Growing immigrant and ethnic minority populations have contributed to the diversity of family forms and individual life courses. Changing partnership and childbearing patterns have major implications for social stratification and health inequalities in the later life course.
This international symposium brings together researchers in the areas of family, fertility, migration and the life course to discuss recent research and the challenges that changing demographic realities pose to European countries at individual, regional and societal levels. The workshop is jointly organised by the University of St Andrews and the ESRC Centre for Population Change, and it will be held in Lower College Hall, the University of St Andrews.
Confirmed keynote speakers are Prof Aat Liefbroer (University of Amsterdam and NIDI), Prof Francesco Billari (Bocconi University), Dr Eleonora Mussino (Stockholm University) and Prof Jane Falkingham (University of Southampton).
Friday, November 9th 2018
CPC Seminar - Bradley Tombleson & Cuiling Zhang (Seminars and lectures)
University of Southampton, Building 04 Room 4003
Friday, November 9th 2018
12:00-13:30
A joint seminar hosted by CPC and Department of Social Statistics and Demography at the University of Southampton. Both speakers will be presenting 40 minute talks, with time for questions. A sandwich lunch will be provided.
Bradley Tombleson - The ageing-migration nexus: provincial-level trends in China
Cuiling Zhang - The Reinterpretation of China's Fertility Decline: the Neglected Role of Birth Timing Policy
Thursday, October 25th 2018
CPC Seminar - Nuptiality patterns across space and time in Italy: evidence from register data (Seminars and lectures)
Dr Francesca Rinesi
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Scotland
Thursday, October 25th 2018
13:00-14:00
In recent decades, Italy has rapidly experienced cultural and societal transformations that lead to major changes in family formation. The most relevant of these are nuptiality decline, changes in the age at first marriage, rise of non-marital cohabitation and LAT, higher levels of marital disruption and remarriages. Notwithstanding, marriage cannot be considered in Italy as an outdated institution since 8 women and 7 men aged 45 out of 10 are or have been married. The aim of the presentation is to examine the transformation of nuptiality patterns in Italy from the 1950s to present. Special attention will be given to the temporal and spatial variation of cohort and period nuptiality indicators.
Thursday, October 18th 2018
CPC seminar - Union dissolution, residential mobility, and housing in Britain: Findings from the PartnerLife project (Seminars and lectures)
Julia Mikolai
University of Southampton
Thursday, October 18th 2018
15:00 - 16:00
Abstract: Partner relationships, residential relocations and housing are crucial to people's well-being and are known to be connected with each other. However, many aspects of this connection have remained under-researched. In this presentation, we aim to fill some of these knowledge gaps by showcasing findings from the PartnerLife project. For example, we show that separation leads to elevated mobility levels and that the risk of a move remains high even several years after separation in England and Wales. Additionally, we study housing tenure trajectories of separated men and women in Britain applying sequence analysis to data from the British Household Panel Survey.
Bio: Julia Mikolai is a Research Fellow at the University of St Andrews. She is currently working on the PartnerLife project (https://partnerlifeproject.org/), a comparative project which explores the interrelationships between partner relationships, residential relocations, and housing in the life course in the UK, Germany, and the Netherlands. Julia holds a PhD in social statistics and demography from the University of Southampton. Her PhD research investigated the intersection of partnership experiences and the transition to motherhood in 16 European countries and the United States using multi-state event history models. Julia's background is in sociology and demography; she studied at Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, at Utrecht University, and at the European Doctoral School of Demography.
Friday, October 12th 2018
University of Southampton and CPC Distinguished Lecture: Fairness between the generations (Seminars and lectures)
Lord David Willetts
University of Southampton, The Cube, B42
Friday, October 12th 2018
14:45
The lecture will see Lord Willetts discuss whether or not controversial changes to university funding are in the interests of the younger generation, and will set out the Resolution Foundation's Intergenerational Commission policy proposals to offer a fair deal to younger people.
Wednesday, October 10th 2018 - Monday, September 10th 2018
University of Southampton and CPC Public Lecture Series - Cost and benefits of international students (Seminars and lectures)
No.4 Hamilton Place, London
Wednesday, October 10th 2018
Wednesday, October 10th 2018
17:30
The first event in our new population and migration public lecture series takes place on Wednesday 10 October 2018 in London and focuses on the costs and benefits of international students in the UK.
Migration figures Higher Education (HE) is becoming increasingly globalised; in the UK, international students make up nearly a fifth of all students in the HE system. As a result, this growing population is a significant part of the ongoing debate over net UK migration figures. But are they a cost or a benefit to the UK?
Despite this being a topical issue that's regularly addressed in the media, there is little evidence to explain what influences whether international students migrate or remain in the UK. With their expertise in large-scale survey methodology, our researchers are helping to drive this research forward, answering important questions such as:
Are overseas students migrating to the UK in large numbers?
Are they remaining in the UK or leaving after they graduate?
What are the costs and benefits to society?
Keynote speakers
Professor Alan Manning, London School of Economics
Mr Jonathan Chaloff, International Migration Division, Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development
Professor Jackie Wahba, University of Southampton
Joining the keynote speakers will be University of Southampton expert Professor Jane Falkingham, Dean of Faculty, Social Sciences, University of Southampton and Professor Sir Ian Diamond, chair of the Social Security Advisory Committee.
Wednesday, October 10th 2018
Faculty of Social Sciences Research Event Series Launch (Other)
Professor Jane Falkingham
University of Southampton
Wednesday, October 10th 2018
12:00-14:00
Launch: Prof Jane Falkingham "From Research Assistant to ESRC Council: a personal research journey", followed by poster/exhibit session and lunch.
Friday, October 5th 2018
CPC Seminar - Transforming migration statistics: Administrative data at the core (Seminars and lectures)
Niomie Warner
University of Southampton
Friday, October 5th 2018
15:00-16:00
International migration flows into and out of the country are currently estimated using the International Passenger Survey (IPS). Whilst significant improvements have been made to the IPS in recent years, the landscape and demands for information have shifted and continue to shift. There is now much more interest in the stock of migrants residing in the UK and the impact they have on the economy and society. There are currently sources of data that shed some light on this but these only go so far in meeting the needs of the public, media and policymakers.
This session will start by looking at the recent improvements we have made to our outputs following a greater demand for information by either improving our current publications or providing new statistics and analysis where we can. However, we are limited on the information we can provide from current data sources and have gaps in our existing knowledge. We will then present the collaborative work across the Government Statistical Service to improve migration statistics and explain the approach we are taking to make better use of new and existing data sources. These new data sources currently concentrate on administrative data and this session will share how we have started to explore Home Office administrative data and how this source can be used to help us understand international migration further. We will also describe new and innovative ways of bringing together migration data from across the GSS and challenge our current methods.
Thursday, September 27th 2018
CPC Seminar - Reciprocity within family networks in Switzerland: A multilevel analysis (Seminars and lectures)
Dr Gil Viry
Ladywell House, Edinburgh EH12 7TF Room (1/G/8)
Thursday, September 27th 2018
13:00-14:00
Reciprocity has been traditionally conceived in the social science as a force of social integration and solidarity that binds families and social networks together. The geographical dispersion of families raises concerns that family bonds, including their reciprocity, have weakened. Yet, there are virtually no studies investigating how reciprocity vary across families and their spatiality. The scarce existing evidence focuses on specific family dyads, such as intergenerational support to old parents, overlooking possible structural effects at the family/network level. This study aims to address these knowledge gaps using multi-level modelling and data on the personal networks of 754 adults living in Switzerland (including the ISSP 2012 and 2013 modules). In this seminar, we will present the extent to which emotional support given, received and reciprocated is a joint product of the spatial characteristics of the respondents (e.g. migration background, residential environment), their family ties (e.g. physical distance) and family networks (e.g. their geographical dispersion).
Monday, September 10th 2018 - Wednesday, September 12th 2018
CPC at BSPS Annual Conference 2018 (Conferences)
University of Winchester
Monday, September 10th 2018
Monday, September 10th 2018
Tuesday, August 28th 2018
RGS-IBG AC2018 Pre-conference: Austerity Politics and the Changing Landscapes of Inequality (Conferences)
Cardiff University
Tuesday, August 28th 2018
12.00 - 17.30
Austerity has been widely discussed as a factor in Britain's vote to leave the EU (Dorling, 2016). The 'austerity agenda' has exacerbated existing inequalities of housing, health, education and welfare and produced new sites of precarity and vulnerability. Research on austerity in the Global North has drawn attention to its disproportionate effects for a range of groups, such as people of colour, young people and women (Bassel and Emujulu, 2017; Horton, 2016; Hall, 2017). This pre-conference workshop, organised jointly by the RGS-IBG Population Geography and Social and Cultural Geography Research Groups, introduces geographical perspectives on austerity and inequality in the context of a changing global political landscape.
Are inequalities deepening or widening in the context of austerity politics?
How are these patterned and experienced geographically and across the lifecourse?
What are the challenges for devolved and regional landscapes of austerity?
In what ways do people live with or challenge austerity in their everyday lives?
This event brings together academic, policy and public participants to discuss these questions and the trends, experiences and challenges of austerity and inequality in a changing political landscape.
Associated Downloads
Thursday, July 12th 2018 - Tuesday, June 12th 2018
Joint S3RI/CPC Seminar - Dr Han Lin Shang, Model confidence sets and forecast combination: An application to mortality forecasting (Seminars and lectures)
Dr Han Lin Shang, Australian National University
Room 1023/Building 58
Thursday, July 12th 2018
Thursday, July 12th 2018
3pm - 4pm
Averaging the forecasts from a range of models often improves upon forecasts based on a single model. We analyze the effects of trimming the set of models before averaging, with equal weight averaging working well. We propose an approach based on model confidence sets that incorporate the statistical significance of the in-sample forecasting performance. Using Japanese age-specific mortality data, we find robust out-of-sample forecast accuracy from the proposed trimming method. (Joint work with Steven Haberman, Cass Business School)
Keywords: Equal predictability test; Japanese Human Mortality Database; Mean
interval score; Model averaging; Root mean square forecast error.
Monday, July 2nd 2018
The Uncertain World of International Migration - Jakub Bijak (Public engagement events)
Jakub Bijak
Winchester Discovery Centre, Jewry Street
Monday, July 2nd 2018
7.30pm
Besides remaining a hot and politically-charged topic, international migration is a fascinating area of study for demographers, being one of the most uncertain, complex and multidimensional population processes. In this talk, Jakub will sketch the current broad state of knowledge on migration, with focus on the key areas about which we do not know much, and possibly never will. To that end, we will explore possible responses to migration, which take its uncertainty and complexity for what it is: neither something to ignore, nor necessarily to fight against, but rather an inherent feature of population mobility which needs to be acknowledged and managed. Find out more: www.wincafesci.org.uk
Thursday, June 28th 2018
CPC Seminar -Early-life circumstances and later-life health and wellbeing in the Scottish Mental Survey 1947 (Seminars and lectures)
Dr Matthew Iveson, University of Edinburgh
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Scotland
Thursday, June 28th 2018
1pm-2pm
Early-life advantage in terms of socioeconomic status, cognitive ability and education have been consistently, and individually, associated with a reduced risk of mortality and morbidity in later-life. However, it is unclear how independent these associations are, and what structure (i.e., mediation) may underlie them. Do early-life factors directly impact later-life outcomes, or do they act indirectly through factors later along the life course? In this talk I will present data from Scottish Mental Survey 1947 cohort members who are present in the Scottish Longitudinal Study. I will describe recent findings regarding the contribution of life-course factors to later-life health and wellbeing, particularly regarding economic activity and self-reported functional health from ages 55 to 75.
Thursday, May 31st 2018
CPC Seminar - Exploring the drivers of social and spatial mobility, and the impact on health in later life: Data linkage of the Scottish Mental Survey 1947 with the Scottish Longitudinal Study and other administrative data sources - Lynne Forrest (Seminars and lectures)
Lynne Forrest
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Ladywell Road, Edinburgh, EH12 7TF
Thursday, May 31st 2018
1-2pm
Lynne Forrest from ADRC-S/SLS will present:
Title: Exploring the drivers of social and spatial mobility, and the impact on health in later life: Data linkage of the Scottish Mental Survey 1947 with the Scottish Longitudinal Study and other administrative data sources.
Abstract:
The Scottish Mental Survey 1947 (a 1936 birth cohort with age 11 cognitive ability test scores) was linked to the Scottish Longitudinal Study and the 1939 Register, in order to explore the drivers of social and spatial mobility, and the relationship between social and geographic mobility and health.
'Escalator' regions enhance the social mobility of those who relocate there. This may be because of the employment opportunities that are offered, or due to particular characteristics of spatially-mobile individuals. We examined whether major cities such as Edinburgh may operate as 'escalator' regions, and whether it is person or place (or perhaps a combination of both) that is important for upward mobility. We explored how geographical mobility might impact on social mobility. We also modelled the relationship between social and geographic mobility and health outcomes in later life.
Glasgow's life expectancy is lower than other Scottish cities and comparable English cities. As this is not entirely explained by the high levels of deprivation, a number of theories have been suggested, including that of selective migration, where the upwardly mobile move out of Glasgow, leaving behind those who are more deprived and less healthy. Further research will explore the impact of social mobility and migration to Scottish New Towns on health inequalities and premature mortality in Glasgow using SMS 1947 data.
Wednesday, May 30th 2018
Socio-Spatial Dynamics between Younger and Older Adults in Contemporary Societies (Seminars and lectures)
Albert Sabater
Centro de Ciencias Humanas y Sociales
Wednesday, May 30th 2018
17:00
Wednesday, May 23rd 2018
Faculty Research Group on Ageing and the Life Course (FRG-ALC) Faculty-wide seminar on 'Diversity in Ageing' (Seminars and lectures)
Vanessa Burholt, Andrew King & Athina Vlachantoni
Helen Wodehouse Building, Room 2.26, 35 Berkeley Square, Bristol BS8 1JA
Wednesday, May 23rd 2018
3pm-5pm
Presenters/topic areas:
Vanessa Burholt (Swansea) half-hour presentation on her recent work on developing a social model of loneliness and the role of disability and cognitive impairments in later life.
Andrew King (Surrey) half-hour presentation on 'ageing, sexual identity and intersectionality', following on from his recent book title on this topic.
Athina Vlachantoni (Southampton) half-hour presentation on 'Pension protection in later life amongst ethnic elders in the UK'.
Panel and audience discussion to follow presentations.
Thursday, May 17th 2018
CPC Seminar - Pension adequacy standards: Empirical estimates for the United States, England, and Germany - Christian Dudel (Seminars and lectures)
Christian Dudel, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
University of Southampton, Building 67/Room 1003
Thursday, May 17th 2018
3.00pm
ABSTRACT:
Due to increasing life expectancy pension provisions need to last longer and longer, casting doubt on the financial security of pensioners. Surprisingly, it is unclear what pension level can be considered to be adequate. In this paper, we propose a general framework for the estimation of pension adequacy standards. Applying a range of econometric estimation techniques to data from the U.S., England, and Germany, we find that a net pension income roughly equal to 100% of the last net working life income can be considered adequate. Sensitivity checks suggest that this finding is robust.
SPEAKER BIO:
Christian Dudel is a research scientist at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, Germany. He received his PhD in Social Statistics from the University of Bochum. His research interests focus on the modeling of life courses, causal inference and partial identification, inequality measurement, and analyzing consequences of demographic change.
Thursday, April 26th 2018
CPC Seminar - Understanding childhood and family life in Scotland using the Growing Up in Scotland study - Line Knudsen (Seminars and lectures)
Line Knudsen
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Ladywell Road, Edinburgh, EH12 7TF
Thursday, April 26th 2018
1pm - 2pm
Line Knudsen from ScotCen will give a seminar on the following:
Title & Abstract: Understanding childhood and family life in Scotland using the Growing Up in Scotland study.
Growing Up in Scotland (GUS) is a large-scale, multidisciplinary longitudinal study which tracks the lives of children from the early years, through childhood and beyond. Since its inception in 2005, the study has collected information about three cohorts of children: a child cohort and two birth cohorts - altogether, information has been collected about 14,000 children and families in Scotland.
This seminar will illustrate the unique opportunities GUS offers for researchers and analysts across a range of topic areas. The seminar will provide an overview of the study methods and data and will also present findings from recent analyses using GUS data, including from a recent report looking at patterns of employment among mothers with young children.
Thursday, March 29th 2018
CPC Seminar - Jakub Bijak (Seminars and lectures)
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Scotland
Thursday, March 29th 2018
The talk will outline the recent advances in developing a robust methodology for population forecasting, with focus on the methods for predicting mortality and fertility. The theoretical discussion will be illustrated with an example of a prototype population forecast for the UK prepared by the modelling strand of the Centre for Population Change.
Friday, March 23rd 2018
Jan Hoem Distinguished Lecture: Jane Falkingham (Seminars and lectures)

Jane Falkingham
Stockholm University Demography Unit (SUDA), Stockholm University
Friday, March 23rd 2018
3.30pm
The Stockholm University Demography Unit (SUDA) is pleased to announce the second Jan M. Hoem Distinguished Lecture in Demography 'Population Change and the Need for Life Course Sensitive Policy' with Professor Jane Falkingham of the Centre for Population Change and University of Southampton.
Further information and registration at: http://ow.ly/jOyf30ihzDS
Thursday, March 22nd 2018
CPC Seminar - Men and delayed parenthood: a qualitative study of men's views regarding the 'right time' to have children - Caroline Law (Seminars and lectures)
Caroline Law, De Montfort University
University of Southampton, Building 54/Room 8033
Thursday, March 22nd 2018
3.00pm
The age at which people are becoming parenting has increased over recent decades. The average age of first-time mothers has risen from 27.3 in 2006 to 28.8 years in 2016; and while corresponding data on the average age of first-time fathers does not exist, the average age of men at the birth of any children (first and subsequent) has risen from 31.1 in 1993 to 33.3 years in 2016 (ONS 2014, 2017). However, in both lay and media discourse, as well as academic research and commentary, the majority of attention paid to 'delayed childbearing' has focused on women. This overemphasises female responsibility and implicates women's behaviours in 'problems' of delayed childbearing, leaving men's positions and behaviours neglected (Lloyd, 1996, in Greene and Biddlecom, 2000, Jamieson et al., 2010).
This paper presents findings from a doctoral, qualitative, sociological study of men and reproductive timings in which 25 in-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with men who do not have children but want or expect to have them in the future. Men's views about the right time and circumstances for becoming a father, and relatedly the barriers to doing so, are discussed in order to allow for a consideration of how and why men may be contributing to 'delayed parenthood'. The paper explores men's perceptions of age related fertility decline and of changing trends in when people become parents, and considers how their accounts may offer insights into wider social changes in the timing of parenthood. Finally, it considers the data in relation to the notion of men acting as a 'drag' on the processes of partnership formation and family building (Jamieson et al., 2010).
Caroline Law is a Research Fellow and part-time PhD student with the Centre for Reproduction Research at De Montfort University, Leicester. She has a background in sociology and in social research, initially in the third sector and now in academia. Her research interests include qualitative research, the sociology of health and illness, reproduction and infertility, men and masculinities, endometriosis, and discourse analysis.
Tuesday, March 20th 2018 - Friday, March 23rd 2018
New and emerging family forms around the globe (Workshops)
Centre d'Estudis Demografics, Barcelona.
Tuesday, March 20th 2018
Tuesday, March 20th 2018
Brienna Perelli-Harris chaired an IUSSP Scientific Panel workshop.
Thursday, March 15th 2018
CPC seminar - An agent-based model of sex ratio at birth distortions - Dr Francisco Villavicencio (Seminars and lectures)
Dr Francisco Villavicencio, University of Southern Denmark
University of Southampton, Building 2/Room 1083
Thursday, March 15th 2018
3.00pm
Abstract: Since the 1980s and 1990s, a decline in total fertility levels across a number of countries in Asia and the Caucasus has been accompanied by an unprecedented rise in the proportion of male births compared to female births, usually expressed in terms of the sex ratio at birth (SRB). Although the micro-level factors - persistent son preference within a context of fertility decline and growing access to pre-natal sex determination technology - are known, their specific levels, trends and interactions in explaining macro-level SRB trajectories are hard to discern with existing data and approaches. We present an agent-based model (ABM) that examines the contribution of each of these micro-level factors to the emergence of distorted SRBs at the macro-level, and calibrate the model to the South Korean and Indian scenarios.
Thursday, March 8th 2018
CPC Seminar - Aat Liefbroer (Seminars and lectures)
Aat Liefbroer, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), VU University, Amsterdam
University of Southampton, Building 58/Room 1009.
Thursday, March 8th 2018
3.00pm
Aat Liefbroer is Leader of the Theme 'Families and Generations' at the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) in The Hague, The Netherlands. In addition, he holds a professorship in Life Course Demography at the University Medical Centre Groningen of the University of Groningen and a professorship by special appointment in Demography of Young Adults and Intergenerational Transmission at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. His research interests focus on demographic decision-making in a life-course perspective. He is currently working on an ERC-funded project on how societal contexts moderate the demographic consequences of childhood disadvantage.
Abstract
Social Background and Risky Demographic Behaviour: A Cross-National Analysis of the Role of Parental Education, Growing Up Without Both Parents and Sibling Size.
Some demographic behaviours (e.g. teenage parenthood, teenage partnering, having a child outside a partner relationship, separation) are risky, as they may have negative consequences for future well-being. The odds of experiencing such behaviours depends on one's family of origin. Young people from families that lack economic resources are at an increased risk of experiencing such events. The same is true for young people who grow up in a non-intact family. However, the extent to which parental background influences risky demographic behaviour may depend on the societal context. I expect that the influence of parental SES and the number of siblings is weaker in societal contexts that facilitate human agency, as such contexts buffer the lack of resources. At the same time, the influence of growing up in a non-intact family may be stronger in such contexts, as young people who have experienced parental break-up may hold more favourable attitudes towards non-traditional family behaviours and societal contexts that facilitate human agency offer better opportunities to act in accordance with such attitudes. I use data from Generation and Gender Surveys conducted in 15 countries and meta-analysis and meta-regression to examine this issue.
After the talk there will be tea/coffee and biscuits at 4pm in Building58/Room2041. All are welcome to attend.
Thursday, February 22nd 2018
CPC Seminar - Kate Botterhill (Seminars and lectures)
Kate Botterhill, Napier University Edinburgh
Room 1/G/8 Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, February 22nd 2018
1pm
'Rescaling belonging in 'Brexit Britain': Spatial identities and practices of Polish nationals in Scotland after the UK Referendum on EU membership'
This seminar will discuss qualitative data collected in the aftermath of the UK Referendum on EU membership in 2016 with post-accession Polish nationals living in Scotland. It contributes to debates on the geography and geopolitics of Brexit in two connected ways. Firstly, it will explore how Polish nationals use local, national and European scales to narrate a sense of belonging in Scotland. Brexit is scripted as a moment of intense geopolitics, a rupturing event that has compelled EU citizens to re-engage with questions of national and European identity. Kate's paper argues that transnational, local and sub-national frames of meaning figure as important in providing a sense of security in the context of uncertain Brexit futures. Secondly, it will explore how Polish nationals' everyday encounters in local spaces after the vote have shaped spatial identifications and unsettled attachments to place. The narratives explored reveal complex multi-scalar engagements with Brexit geopolitics in relation to both local, and often idealized, identifications with Scotland and broader identifications with the EU. Drawing on relational theories of scale advanced by feminist geographers and migration scholars, the paper demonstrates the attachments to place and locality are not incompatible with supra-national and national frames of belonging.
Lunch won't be provided so please bring your own. You will need to be signed at Ladywell House so please email cll@st-andrews.ac.uk if you wish to attend.
Thursday, February 15th 2018
CPC Seminar - Working and Caring over life courses: pathways and outcomes - Fiona Carmichael (Seminars and lectures)
Fiona Carmichael, Birmingham University
University of Southampton, Building 58/Room 1067
Thursday, February 15th 2018
3.00pm
We are delighted to welcome Fiona Carmichael to speak at CPC. Fiona is Professor of Labour Economics in the Department of Management at Birmingham Business School, University of Birmingham. Her research centres on employment issues and marginalised workers including:trade-offs between paid work and unpaid caregiving; barriers to work facing older workers; retirement decisions and outcomes; and benefit system impacts on disabled people and their families, including family caregivers. Recent work in these areas has adopted a life course approach using a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods.
Further information about this talk is to be confirmed.
Thursday, January 25th 2018
CPC Seminar - How to bring data to life using infographics and visualisations - Esther Roughsedge (Seminars and lectures)
Esther Roughsedge, National Records of Scotland
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Scotland
Thursday, January 25th 2018
The seminar will focus on How to bring data to life using infographics and interactive visualisations and will show new ways of making your key messages quick, easy and appealing to read. The aim of this is to help data scientists reach a wider audience, and therefore increase the impact of their work.
Esther will talk about the basics of communicating data well, producing infographics and interactive data visualisations. She will talk about what they have done with NRS data and why, and share advice and tips (you can see more here: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/stats-at-a-glance/infographics-and-visualisations).
Beata will then show some examples of data visualization for population data, from well-known Lexis surfaces to more sophisticated and innovative ways of displaying demographic analyses
All are welcome to attend, and we look forward to seeing you there.
Thursday, January 25th 2018
CPC/CRA Seminar - Intimacy and Intergenerational Relations in Rural China (Seminars and lectures)
Dr Jieyu Liu, Deputy Director of SOAS China Institute at SOAS University of London
54/8033, University of Southampton
Thursday, January 25th 2018
12pm - 1pm
CPC and the Centre for Research on Ageing are delighted to welcome Dr Jieyu Liu, Deputy Director of SOAS China Institute at SOAS University of London, who is going to give a talk entitled "Intimacy and Intergenerational Relations in Rural China" for our joint January Seminar.
Jieyu Liu is Reader in Sociology of China and Deputy Director of SOAS China Institute at SOAS University of London. She is the author of Gender and Work in Urban China: Women Workers of the Unlucky Generation (Routledge 2007) and Gender, Power and Sexuality in Chinese Companies: Beauties at Work (Palgrave 2016). Her recent research has expanded into contributing to the understanding of rapid demographical transitions and social change in China - this appeared in Sociology, British Journal of Sociology, Geoforum and Journal of Aging Studies. In 2015, she was awarded a five-year European Research Council grant to examine changing family relations in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan. Through a multi-sited ethnography, this project is the first of its kind to compare family practices in various sites and examine how they are the by-products of particular socio-cultural configurations.
Abstract
This article applies the concept of intimacy to examine relationships between adult children and their parents in rural China - an area which has been predominantly located in an obligatory framework. I reveal a qualitative difference in support between relationships built on intimate ties and those bound by duty and obligation. A unilateral emphasis on obligation-based relationships can deprive both the parent and adult child generations of agency and autonomy, which can be disempowering for both. The complex relations between intimacy and obligation are the product of local socio-economic circumstances and gender norms. Although traditional patrilineal and patrilocal culture excludes married daughters from the filial discourse surrounding their own parents, they are often considered to have the most intimate relationship with their parents. Paradoxically, the practices of intimacy between aged parents and their married daughters strengthen the natal ties that facilitate modifications to patrilocal and patrilineal customs.
After the talk there will be refreshments at 13:00pm in Building 58/Room2041.
All are welcome to attend, and we look forward to seeing you there.
Wednesday, January 24th 2018
CPC Seminar - 'Immigration after Brexit' with Professor Jonathan Portes (Seminars and lectures)

Jonathan Portes
Building 58/ Room 1067, University of Southampton Highfield Campus
Wednesday, January 24th 2018
5 - 6pm
We are delighted to announce that Professor Jonathan Portes will be speaking at our January Seminar.
Jonathan started his career at HM Treasury in 1987, and spent most of his career as a civil servant, serving as Chief Economist at the Department for Work and Pensions from 2002 to 2008 and Chief Economist at the Cabinet Office from 2008 to 2011. He led the Cabinet Offices economic analysis and economic policy work during the financial crisis and on the G20 London Summit in April 2009. From 2011 to 2015, he was Director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
Jonathan's talk will discuss the growth in immigration from the rest of the EU to the UK was a central issue in the referendum. What do we know about the impacts of immigration on the UK economy and labour market: and after Brexit, what will happen to over 3 million EU27 citizens who now live in the UK (and more than a million Brits elsewhere in the EU). How will UK immigration policy, both towards EU citizens and those from outside the EU, change after Brexit?
This event is open to anyone with an interest in this subject, but places are limited so please register for your free ticket here
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Thursday, January 18th 2018 - Friday, January 19th 2018
Workshop: Going beyond the country: Exploring sub-national effects on socio-demographic phenomena with European Social Survey data. (Workshops)

Dr Agnese Vitali and Dr Bruno Arpino
University of Southampton
Thursday, January 18th 2018
Thursday, January 18th 2018
Call for papers: CPC's Dr Agnese Vitali and Dr Bruno Arpino of the Universitat Pompeu Fabra will be holding an ESS ERIC Academic Workshop from 18 - 19 January 2018 at the University of Southampton.
Individuals' decisions, values and attitudes are influenced by the context in which they are embedded. Often, socio-demographic studies analyse how specific attitudes or behaviours (e.g. timing of life-course event, attitudes towards immigration, gender equality, etc.) vary geographically across countries. However, for several outcomes the regional context may exert more influence than the national one. The European Social Survey proves to be a unique source of comparable socio-demographic data for mapping and understanding geographical differences in behaviours and attitudes across and within European countries. We invite contributions which make use of European Social Survey (ESS) data and propose to explore the sub-national dimension in socio-demographic outcomes including (but not restricted to): family; fertility; gender; migrants; ageing; health and wellbeing. We especially welcome contributions which make use of multilevel and spatial regression models.
Scope
The workshop will bring together academics who are interested in exploring the sub-national dimension in socio-demographic studies and will promote ESS as an invaluable instrument in this respect. The aims of the workshop are:
To reflect on the role of sub-national contexts for explaining differences in socio-demographic attitudes and behaviours across Europe;
To discuss how new attitudes and behaviours spread spatially across geographical areas that may overcome national boundaries;
To discuss how multilevel and spatial models can be fruitfully applied to study the regional vs. national influence on individuals' outcomes.
Agenda:
18 January (afternoon only)
Short course: Introduction to multilevel and spatial modelling
The course introduces the key ideas in multilevel and spatial analysis. The focus will be on the advantages and disadvantages of the two approaches from a substantive point of view and will be illustrated with examples from the social sciences. Limitations of the application of multilevel and spatial models to ESS data will be discussed.
19 January (all day)
Presentations of research papers
Panel discussion on opportunities and challenges of exploring the sub-national dimension using ESS data.
Call for papers: how to apply
Please submit an original extended abstract (5 pages maximum) or a full paper to: ess-apw@soton.ac.uk by no later than 15 November 2017.
In the email please specify: name, surname, affiliation and current position of the applicant(s). Further information is available on the attachment below.
Funding
No fee is required to participate in the workshop. Lunches and coffee breaks will be provided, but participants are expected to cover their own travel and accommodation costs. A limited number of travel and accommodation grants are available (preference will be given to early-career researchers).
Associated Downloads
/docs/2017_09_01ESS_ERIC_Academic_Workshop_Southampton_-_Call_for_papers.pdf
Thursday, January 11th 2018
Is internal migration slowing down? (Seminars and lectures)
London School of Economics
Thursday, January 11th 2018
Professor Tony Champion, Senior Research Investigator at Newcastle University has helped organise a day meeting for early in the New Year 'Is internal migration slowing down?' that may interest our associates.
This meeting has been arranged to celebrate the publication of 'Internal Migration in the Developed World: Are we becoming less mobile?', convened jointly by the British Society for Population Studies (BSPS) and the RGS-IBG Population Geography Research Group (PGRG), and will take place on Thursday, 11 January 2018 in Parish Hall (PAR.2.02), London School of Economics.
The programme can be viewed here.
There is no charge for attendance at the meeting, but pre-registration is required by emailing pic@lse.ac.uk - places will be allocated on a first-come, first-served basis up to the capacity of the meeting room. Registration is now open.
Keep up to date with all CPC's news and events by following us on Twitter @CPCPopulation
Tuesday, January 9th 2018
Uncertainty quantification in demography: Challenges and possible solutions, Workshop "Key UQ methodologies and motivating applications" (Workshops)
Jakub Bijak
Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge
Tuesday, January 9th 2018
Jakub Bijak was invited to present at a workshop titled "Uncertainty quantification in demography: Challenges and possible solutions, Workshop "Key UQ methodologies and motivating applications"", at the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge.
Friday, January 5th 2018 - Sunday, January 7th 2018
American Economic Association Meeting (Conferences)
Hector Calvo-Pardo
Philadelphia Marriott
Friday, January 5th 2018
Friday, January 5th 2018
Hector Calvo-Pardo co-organised the January 2018 American Economic Association Meeting in Philadelphia, session on 'Subjective Expectations, Belief Formation, and Economic Behavior'.
Thursday, December 14th 2017
The Kids Are Alright: The Rise in Non-Marital Births and Child Well-being (Seminars and lectures)
Christina Gibson-Davis, Sanford School of Public Policy
University of Southampton, Building 58/ Room 1023
Thursday, December 14th 2017
3pm - 4pm
Academics and policy makers in both the US and the UK have long shown an interest in discussing the rise in the number of children born out of wedlock, hypothesizing that it results in bad outcomes for the children, and by extension, society.
Using six decades of US and UK data, this hypothesis is tested by our speaker, Christina Gibson-Davies, by looking at aggregate trends in the non-marital fertility ratio (NMFR) and child well-being. No evidence is found that an increased NMFR is correlated with increases in aggregate adverse outcomes. Instead, the majority of results suggest that as the NMFR has increased, aggregate child outcomes have improved. Data from three British cohort studies is then used: the National Child Development Study (NCDS); the British Cohort Study (BCS) and the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS), together with US data on birth weight and grade repetition to examine whether the association between marriage and child well-being has diminished over time.
The results of these individual-level analysis suggest that the positive correlations between the NMFR and child well-being for the US and the UK may be driven in part by improved well-being of children born to unmarried parents. Individual-level results do not support the hypothesis that upward trends in aggregate child well-being are being driven by children born to married parents.
Christina concludes that the attention given to the NMFR has likely been overstated, and that given scarce resources, policy makers may wish to direct their attention elsewhere.
Monday, December 11th 2017 - Tuesday, December 12th 2017
EuroChallenge conference (Workshops)
Chris Moreh
University of Copenhagen
Monday, December 11th 2017
Monday, December 11th 2017
Chris Moreh presented at the workshop "Brexit and the Pandora's Box of EU Citizenship" organised as the concluding part of the EU-Funded EuroChallenge conference.
Friday, December 8th 2017
'Different societies, same solutions?' A keynote speech about ageing as a burden. (Conferences)

Professor Traute Meyer
Lingnan University, Hong Kong
Friday, December 8th 2017
4.00pm
CPCs Professor Traute Meyer will be giving a keynote speech: Different Societies, Same Solutions? A Critical Reflection on Ageing as a Burden in China and the European Union at 4.00pm on 8 December at the international conference Doing comparative social policy analysis in changing global context. The conference will be given in English and will take place at Lingnan University in Hong Kong.
The question whether welfare states can be classified into distinct types has remained subject to lively debates. Far from a unifying convergence of comparative social policy trends, a more global perspective suggests continued variation and difference, with a multiplicity of forms of globalisations encountered and/or engendered in diverse contexts.
To reveal the complexities of national, extra-national and transnational drivers of welfare formation and development under contemporary but diverse conditions, this two-day conference combines papers that understand national social policies in a global context, compare national social policies in a global/multi-level context or explore global ideas and discourses on national social policy. It also includes comparative studies that analyse social policy via developing analytical frameworks that reach across individual world-regions and global actors.
Further information and a detailed agenda can be viewed in the attachment at the bottom of this page.
Please register your free place here
Keep up to date with all CPC's news and events by following us on Twitter @CPCPopulation
Associated Downloads
Friday, December 8th 2017
Healthy Ageing in Scotland (HAGIS) Conference (Conferences)

Surgeon's Hall, Edinburgh
Friday, December 8th 2017
9.15am
The Healthy Ageing In Scotland (HAGIS) conference will take place on Friday 8 December at Surgeons Hall, Edinburgh.
HAGIS is a study of people aged 50+ in Scotland, it collects data on their economic and social circumstances and on their health. Its goal is to help to improve the lives of older Scots by increasing understanding the stresses, strains and successes of their lives, and so ensure that policy meets their needs.
The HAGIS Conference is a special event to celebrate the success of this pioneering new study and CPCs Professor David Bell, who is also the projects Principle Investigator, will be presenting the HAGIS Conference welcome address Past, Present and Future.
David, who is a Professor of Economics at the University of Stirling, is also working within the migration, life course and constitutional change strands of the CPC and is involved with many projects including Rural ageing, migration and care and Carers and time use.
Please register here for this exciting event and also visit the website here for further details.
Keep up to date with all CPCs news and events by following us on Twitter @CPCPopulation
Thursday, December 7th 2017
Gene-neighborhood interactions in educational attainment (Seminars and lectures)
Nicola Barban, University of Oxford
Room 1/G/9, Ladywell House, Scotland
Thursday, December 7th 2017
An increasing literature in social sciences examines the role of gene-environment interactions in shaping socio-economic outcomes. This paper investigates the role of neighbourhood deprivation and in particular how characteristics such as unemployment, poverty level, proportion of adults with college education and median household income mitigate the genetic predisposition to higher educational attainment. We use data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescence and Adult Health (Add-Health) based on a representative sample of US respondents. Using polygenic score (PGS) calculated from genome-wide data included in the Add-Health study (N=9,926), we test interaction effects of neighbourhood characteristics at Wave I (during childhood) with genetic predisposition for educational attainment and their effect on final educational attainment measured in Wave IV (young adulthood). Our preliminary results show that polygenic score has no predictive value in a deprived context, while it is strongly associated with education in more affluent neighbourhoods We further examine the role of parental investments as a proxy of parental investment as a possible mechanism. Finally, we reflect on how to replicate the results using biomarkers included in longitudinal British Data linked to geographical data.
Thursday, December 7th 2017
Celebrating 10 years of Research Projects at the SLS (Conferences)

The Dome, New Register House 3 W Register St Edinburgh EH1 3YT
Thursday, December 7th 2017
1.15pm
The Scottish Longitudinal Study Development and Support Unit (SLS-DSU) has been supporting research projects for 10 years and will be marking the achievement with a celebratory event taking place from 1.15pm - 5.30pm on Thursday 7 December in The Dome, New Register House, Edinburgh.
Two CPC colleagues will be speaking at the event:
Prof John MacInnes, who is Professor of Sociology and Associate Dean in Quantitative Methods at the University of Edinburgh and currently working within the fertility and family and life course strands of the CPC, will be presenting Population Ageing in Scotland.
Dr David McCollum, who is Senior Lecturer School of Geography & Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews and currently working within the migration strand of the CPC, will be presenting Administrative health data linked to the SLS, the potential opportunities for migration research.
To find out more about this event and register your free place online, please visit the SLS-DSU Eventbrite here
Keep up to date with all CPC news and events by following us on Twitter @CPCPopulation
Tuesday, December 5th 2017
Dr David McCollum presents the December Geography Research Seminar (Seminars and lectures)
Queen's University, Belfast
Tuesday, December 5th 2017
1.00pm
5 December 2017 - Dr David McCollum will be presenting 'Declining international migration in an era of mobilities? An analysis using data linked to the Scottish Longitudinal Study' a Geography Research Seminar, in Room 01.009, Elmwood Building, Queen's University.
David is Senior Lecturer in the School of Geography & Sustainable Development at the University of St Andrews and is currently working within the migration strand of the CPC. He has a wealth of research knowledge on the subject of migration and has worked on many CPC projects including: Forecasting Scottish migration after the 2014 referendum; Migration and the constitutional future of Scotland; Analysing mobility trends over time and space in relation to the increased fluidity of the lifecourse and Economic change and international population dynamics: an innovative study of new residential mobilities in Scotland
To find out more about this event, please see the attachment below.
Keep up to date with all CPC news and events by following us on Twitter @CPCPopulation
Associated Downloads
Thursday, November 30th 2017
Challenging 'integration': building new sociological theories to understand migrants' mobilities and settling strategies in the context of Brexit (Workshops)
Derek McGhee & Chris Moreh
University of Sheffield
Thursday, November 30th 2017
Derek McGhee and Chris Moreh planned this workshop with the local organisers following discussions they had at the 2017 BSA conference. This was a small workshop with invited speakers and collaborators. They presented on the theoretical aspects of their ongoing CPC Brexit migration research.
Thursday, November 23rd 2017
Medically assisted reproduction and the risks of poor birth outcomes: have they been overestimated? (Seminars and lectures)
Dr Alice Goisis, London School of Economics
University of Southampton, Building 58/ Room 1023
Thursday, November 23rd 2017
3pm - 5pm
It is well established that children born after medically assisted reproduction (MAR) tend to have worse perinatal outcomes than spontaneously conceived children. However, it is largely unclear whether the increased risks should be attributed to the fertility treatments per se or (also) to other confounding factors such as parental sub-fertility. We contribute to this debate by comparing the birth outcomes of MAR children and spontaneously conceived children in the overall population and, using within-family fixed effects models, in families in which at least one child was conceived through MAR and one spontaneously. The latter approach - which has not been used in this literature before - enables us to account for unobserved parental characteristics shared by siblings. We use Finnish Population Registers of 65,634 children born between 1995-2000, of which 1241 children were born in around 600 families who had both MAR and spontaneously conceived children. The results show that in the within-family analyses the risk of poor birth outcomes associated with being conceived through MAR (as opposed to spontaneously) is attenuated by ≈20-50% compared to the risk observed in the overall population. Moreover, when comparing siblings, the results show that the child's birth order is considerably more important in determining their birth outcomes than whether they were conceived through MAR or spontaneously. Overall, the results suggest that the risk of poor birth outcomes attributed to MAR may have been overestimated.
Saturday, November 18th 2017
CPC at Hands-on Humanities Day (Public engagement events)

Avenue Campus
Saturday, November 18th 2017
10.30am - 4.30pm
On Saturday 18 November, CPC exhibited our Migration research with interactive games and activities at the University of Southampton Hands-On Humanities Day that took place from 10.30am 4.30pm in Building 65 of the Universitys Avenue Campus.
Hands-On Humanities Day was part of the Universitys Human Worlds Festival an annual festival organised by the Public Engagement with Research unit (PERu) to showcase the fantastic humanities research that is taking place at the University of Southampton. This was a free day out for all the family, with a programme packed full of interactive exhibits, workshops and talks. Everyone was invited to come along, find out about what we are working on at CPC and join in with the activities that included:
Archaeology activities
Anglo-Saxon wind instruments
Short story writing
Augmented reality
Queen Elizabeth Is perfume
Minecraft
Film making
For further information to book your free tickets, please visit: http://www.humanworldsfestival.com/hands-on-humanities-day/
To keep up to date with all our events and activities, follow @CPCPopulation on Twitter
Tuesday, November 14th 2017
CPC Director to Chair Demography session at Big Data, Small Area Symposium (Conferences)

Professor Jane Falkingham
The Royal Geographical Society
Tuesday, November 14th 2017
CPC's Director Professor Jane Falkingham was invited to Chair the demography session 'Small area denominators and confounders' at the Big Data, Small Area Symposium at The Royal Geographical Society in South Kensington, London.
This two-day international Symposium celebrated thirty years of the Small Area Health Statistics Unit that has become nationally and internationally recognised for research into environment and health. The Unit has produced over 200 peer reviewed publications, are currently working on over 20 research projects and is based at the School of Public Health at Imperial College London.
Jane, who is Dean of the Faculty of Social, Human and Mathematical Sciences and Professor of Demography and International Social Policy, aswell as Director of CPC at the University of Southampton, has a long and successful career of studying demographic change and its consequences for the distribution of social and economic welfare. Her current research projects include the CPC, funded to examine the drivers and consequences of population change; the EPSRC Energy for Development, aiming to enable a step-change in collaborative research and project development addressing the energy needs of rural communities in developing countries; the Liveable Cities Programme grant, a five-year programme of research to develop a method of designing and engineering low-carbon, resource-secure, wellbeing enhanced UK cities.
The Demography session chaired by Jane on the first day of the Symposium followed the Keynote welcome by Professor Sir Mark Walport, SAHSU, Introduction by Professor Paul Elliott and Public Health England Introduction by Professor John Newton. It featured:
- What future for the Census? - Professor Dave Martin
- Using mobile phone data - Professor Andrew Tatem
- SAHSU approach to population modelling and confounder control - Dr Daniela Fecht
For further information about the Symposium, including the full programme, please visit the Small Area Health Statistics Unit Symposium webpage.
To keep up to date with all CPC news and events, follow @CPCpopulation on Twitter
Tuesday, November 14th 2017 - Wednesday, November 15th 2017
An international symposium in celebration of 30 years of the Small Area Health Statistics Unit (Conferences)
Jane Falkingham
Royal Geographical Society, London, United Kingdom
Tuesday, November 14th 2017
Tuesday, November 14th 2017
Jane Falkingham was invited to chair the demography session for this symposium.
Wednesday, November 8th 2017 - Thursday, November 9th 2017
ESRC Festival of Social Science (Public engagement events)

Jason Hilton, Maja Palmer, Natalia Permyakova
One-O-Four Kitchen & Lounge, Southampton
Wednesday, November 8th 2017
Wednesday, November 8th 2017
7.30pm
CPC opened its first Festival of Social Science public engagement events organised in collaboration with other Southampton ESRC funded Research Centres: the Administrative Research Data Centre - England (ADRC-E), National Centre for Research Methods (NCRM) and the University of Southampton Public Engagement with Research team. An invitation was extended to all, to attend two evenings of informal and interactive talks designed to educate and celebrate Social Science. Two nights, two questions:
Wednesday 8 November
'Is migration really changing the UK as we know it?'
Migration is a complex issue that continues to make headlines and spark debate around the country. This event helped to separate the fact from the fiction and provided an opportunity to discuss the issue with social science researchers.
Talks included: 'Why is it so hard to get detailed counts of UK migration?' by Professor Dave Martin, 'The future of UK migration', by CPC's Dr David Hilton and 'How does migration impact the UK in the context of an ageing population?', by Dr Julie Vullnetari.
Thursday 9 November
'Will welfare and pensions really ensure we have a happy and healthy retirement?'
Happiness and health in retirement is an issue we will all face as we get older. Is it really possible to have both, who and what can we rely on to support us and what are the impacts on others as we age?
Talks included Johannes Hechler from the Office for National Statistics, who discussed the demographic background of an ageing population, CPC's Maja Palmer who discussed caring and ageing in Western Europe and the impacts this has on couples, families and individuals and CPC's Natalia Permyakova who compared this information with caring and health based on studies in Eastern Europe. What can we learn from these studies and is there a right or wrong answer?
These informal and entertaining evenings also included exhibition stands from each of the research centres and visitors even tried out an 'ageing suit', courtesy of Winchester School of Art Design Management Lecturer Dr Yuanyuan Yin.
Further information about these events and how to register for your FREE ticket is available on the University of Southampton Public Engagement with Research website.
To keep up to date with this event, please follow @CPCpopulation and @ESRC on Twitter and tag #esrcfestival
Tuesday, November 7th 2017
CPC Director to open the ESRC Festival of Social Science (Conferences)

The Royal Society
Tuesday, November 7th 2017
6.30pm
CPC Director Professor Jane Falkingham was invited to open the fifteenth ESRC Festival of Social Science at an event that took place at the Royal Society, London.
The event was a debate entitled Impactful Social Science: How the social sciences are helping to tackle global grand challenges and was an opportunity for an invited audience to question leading social scientists on a range of global issues. The panel (below) was hosted by Laurie Taylor of BBC Thinking Aloud:
Professor Lord Stern - Chair, ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy and the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment
Professor Shamit Saggar CBE Pro-Vice-Chancellor Research and Professor of Political Science and Public Policy at the Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex and new Chair of the Campaign for Social Science
Professor Felicity Callard - Director, Birkbeck Institute for Social Research
The ESRC Festival of Social Science is an annual event, designed to promote and increase awareness of social sciences and ESRC's research, enable social scientists to engage with non-academics and increase awareness of the contributions the social sciences make to the wellbeing and the economy of the UK society. This year the Festival took place from 4 11 November 2017 and included a full programme of 316 events across the UK. As part of the Festival, this year CPC joined other University of Southampton Research Centres: ADRC-E and NCRM to host two evenings of informal and interactive talks designed to educate and celebrate Social Science. The talks were based around two important questions for society: Is migration really changing the UK as we know it? and Will welfare and pensions really ensure we have a happy and healthy retirement?.
To keep up to date with this event, please follow @CPCpopulation and @ESRC on Twitter and tag #esrcfestival
Thursday, November 2nd 2017
Does it matter who funds science? (Public engagement events)
Peter Smith
Winchester Discovery Centre
Thursday, November 2nd 2017
Peter Smith spoke at a public event in Winchester, titled 'Does it matter who funds science?' hosted by the Administrative Data Research Centre England.
Sunday, October 29th 2017 - Saturday, November 4th 2017
CPC at 28th IUSSP Annual Population Conference (Conferences)

Cape Town, South Africa
Sunday, October 29th 2017
Sunday, October 29th 2017
CPC was delighted to be part of the 28th International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP) International Population Conference that took place in Cape Town, South Africa.
This conference is a major international event drawing over 2,000 scientists, policy makers and practitioners in the global population community to meet and address issues of common concern. The Conference takes place once every four years, providing a unique forum for population experts to take stock of recent research on population trends and issues and to debate possible actions and policy responses to the challenges posed by population phenomena.
This year many CPC researchers including our Directors Professor Jane Falkingham and Professor Maria Evandrou travelled to Cape Town International Convention Centre in South Africa to present their research in scientific sessions, share papers and giveaways on our exhibition stand, and provide visitors with an opportunity to 'meet the researcher'.
Sessions covered a wide range of topics including international migration, sexual and reproductive health, poverty and inequality, population and environment interactions, the consequences of population ageing and issues related to children and youth, education, the labour force, and gender and human rights.
Registration was open at http://ipc2017capetown.iussp.org/about-the-conference/.
Wednesday, October 25th 2017
Brexit Means? (Conferences)
Dr David McCollum
The Byre Theatre
Wednesday, October 25th 2017
25 October 2017 - CPC's Dr David McCollum was part of the 'Brexit means?...for peace and security' roundtable conversation that discussed 'Immigration and Britain', 'Law Enforcement and Criminal Justice', 'Northern Ireland and the Border' and 'Scotland and Indyref'. The event took place the the Byre Theatre.
David is one of the research co-ordinators for the CPC migration strand and has also worked within the constitutional change strand, for which he has worked/is currently working on the following projects: Analysing mobility trends over time and space in relation to the increased fluidity of the lifecourse, Dynamics and policy implications of changes in student mobility, Economic change and internal population dynamics: an innovative study of new residential mobilties in Scotland, International labour mobility - the changing patterns of recruitment and employment of Central and East European migrants working in England and Scotland' Forecasting Scottish migration after the 2014 referendum and Migration and the constitutional future of Scotland.
The event was organised by the University of St Andrews and the Cultural Identity Studies Institute. Free tickets were available at https://byretheatre.com/events/brexit-means/
Keep up to date with all CPC events by following us on Twitter @CPCPopulation
Thursday, October 19th 2017
Childhood experiences of parenting and cancer risk at older ages: Findings from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) (Seminars and lectures)
Panayotes Demakakos
54/8031, University of Southampton
Thursday, October 19th 2017
3.00pm
Objective: The association between childhood experiences of poor parenting and offspring health at older ages is an important, but underinvestigated area of research. Because poor parenting is potentially a major childhood stressor, we hypothesize that childhood experiences of poor parenting will be associated with higher rates of disease at older ages including higher rates of cancer.
Methods: We used a national sample of 4471 community-dwellers aged ≥55 years in 2007 from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Poor parenting was defined as low levels of parental care and high levels of parental overprotection.
Results: Overall poorer experiences of parenting in childhood were associated with an increased risk of incident all-site cancer in men, but not in women (median follow-up 5.3 years). Decreasing paternal care and increasing paternal overprotection were more strongly associated with an increased risk of incident all-site cancer than maternal care and overprotection. Similar associations were observed in incident skin cancer in men, while increasing paternal overprotection was additionally associated with an increased risk of incident colorectal cancer. Childhood experiences of poor parenting, especially increasing paternal overprotection, were also associated with an increased risk of prevalent all-site and colorectal cancer in women. Adjustment for covariates explained a small part of these associations.
Conclusions: Older adults who report childhood experiences of poor parenting appear to have an increased risk of cancer.
Wednesday, October 11th 2017
CPC's David Bell opens SLLS 2017 Annual Conference (Conferences)

Professor David Bell
Society for Longitudinal and Lifecourse Studies (SLLS) 2017 Annual Conference
Wednesday, October 11th 2017
CPC's Professor David Bell presented the opening keynote speech 'If you build it, they will come' on Wednesday 11 October at the Society for Longitudinal and Lifecourse Studies (SLLS) 2017 Annual Conference, hosted by the University of Stirling.
David is a professor of Economics at the University of Stirling. He is an esteemed member of CPC, working within the Migration, Changing life course and Constitutional change strands and has been involved with or is currently working on projects including: Carers and time use, Rural ageing, migration and care, Fiscal aspects of constitutional change, Migration and the constitutional future of Scotland. David's vast amount of research experience, repertoire of publications, presentations and media activities ensured a fascinating, knowledgeable and thought-provoking speech on 11 October.
The conference was packed with symposiums, poster session, workshops and social events across three days. For further information and the full programme, please visit the SLLS Website conference page.
To keep up to date with the latest news from Professor David Bell, the SLLS and CPC, please follow @DavidNFBell and @SLLShome @CPCpopulation
Wednesday, October 4th 2017
CPC's Dr Agnese Vitali gives keynote speech in family marketing conference, Milan (Conferences)

Dr Agnese Vitali
Milan
Wednesday, October 4th 2017
Dr Agnese Vitali gave a keynote speech at the 'Momketing: new moms, new marketing' Conference in Milan.
The Momketing conference is organised for marketing and communication professionals, including researchers, journalists, students and bloggers to compare successful marketing tools and practices that are targeted at mothers and family.
Agnese, who is currently leading the 'Female-Breadwinner families in Europe' project with CPC, spoke about the changing role of women, and about the fact that advertising may be still targeting the idea of the traditional woman/mother - which is outdated.
Further information is available on the website.
To keep up to date with this and future events please follow @FattoreMamma and @CPCpopulation on Twitter.
Wednesday, October 4th 2017
Internal migration in Scotland (Workshops)
David McCollum
Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Wednesday, October 4th 2017
David McCollum organised this event to disseminate the findings of his SDAI project on internal migration in Scotland.
Monday, September 11th 2017
Migration, EU Migrants and Brexit (Seminars and lectures)
Jane Falkingham
The Hungarian Demographic Research Institute
Monday, September 11th 2017
Jane Falkingham gave a lecture on Migration, EU Migrants and Brexit, at the Hungarian Demographic Research Institute in Budapest.
Wednesday, September 6th 2017 - Friday, September 8th 2017
CPC at BSPS Annual Conference 2017 (Conferences)
University of Liverpool
Wednesday, September 6th 2017
Wednesday, September 6th 2017
CPC were delighted to share papers at the British Society for Population Studies (BSPS) Annual Conference 2017 which was held at the University of Liverpool.
BSPS is a non-profitable society of persons with a scientific interest in the study of human populations, the president of which is also CPC's Director, Professor Jane Falkingham. The main objectives of BSPS are to further the scientific study of biological, economic, historical, medical, social and other disciplines connected with human populations and to contribute to the public awareness of them. BSPS provides a forum for discussion of these issues and is a vehicle for the interchange of ideas. CPC contributed towards these objectives at the annual conference.
On Wednesday 6 September, 'Ethnic differences in aspirations and realities in transitions to adulthood' by Professor Ann Berrington was presented at the 'Family formation: attitudes and behaviours' session and 'Forecasting of UK Demographic Rates using Bayesian Generalised Additive Models' was presented at the 'Innovations in demographic forecasting' session.
On Thursday 7 September, the following papers were presented:
'Theoretical implications of shifts in age - specific fertility, mortality and migration rates' and 'The benefits of lower -level elasticity analysis to infer population dynamic drivers' were presented at the 'Innovative demographic methods' session.
'Linked lives and households: Re-allocation of social pension by beneficiaries of older persons cash transfer programme in Kenya' was presented at the 'Linked lives: the determinants of intergenerational relationships' session.
'What do international students do after completing their studies in the UK?' was presented at the 'International migration and immigrant integration' session.
'Contraceptive use among migrant women with a history of induced abortions in Finland' was presented at the 'Reproductive health 2' session.
'Four decades of changes in partners' relative incomes: Gender revolution or men's unemployment?' was presented at the 'Gender (in)equality within the family' session.
'Investigating aggregation effects in small area health data using synthetic microdata and automated zone design' was presented at the 'Innovative data collection and processing' session.
On Thursday 7 September from 11.00am - 12.30pm, CPC's Dr Agnese Vitali chaired 'Fertility and reproductive health: employment' and from 3.30pm - 4.30pm, CPC's Director Professor Jane Falkingham chaired 'Putting family centre-stage: Family ties and spatial mobility'.
On Friday 8 September, the following papers were presented:
'Decomposing Europe's population growth into stable and transient components' and 'Inferring transient dynamics of human populations from non-normality metrics' were presented at the Interdisciplinary methodological advances in mathematical demography session.
'Women's fertility histories and pathways to allostatic load in post reproductive age: analysis of the Indonesian Family Longitudinal Survey' was presented at the 'Health: Ageing' session.
'Intergenerational family support amongst three cohorts of older people in China' was presented at the 'Families: A cross-cohort perspective on demographic processes' session.
On Friday 8 September from 11.30am - 1.00pm, CPC's Dr Heini Vaisanen chaired ' Fertility intentions'.
The full programme of simultaneous strand sessions of submitted papers and posters are available at http://www.lse.ac.uk/socialPolicy/Researchcentresandgroups/BSPS/annualConference/Home.aspx.
To keep up to date with CPC's latest news and updates about BSPS, please follow @CPCpopulation @bspsUK
Thursday, August 31st 2017 - Friday, September 1st 2017
CPC shares interactive 'Migration' exhibition with Bournemouth Air Festival (Public engagement events)
Bournemouth Air Festival
Thursday, August 31st 2017
Thursday, August 31st 2017
CPC shared our interactive 'Migration' themed exhibition with visitors to Bournemouth Air Festival as part of the 2017 University of Southampton 'Bringing Research to Life' Roadshow
Using engaging activities including a giant connect four game, the CPC exhibition shared world leading social science research in a fun, easy to understand and accessible way to help tackle public misconceptions about Brexit and EU migrants.
The exhibit refers to research highlighted in CPC Briefing Paper 33 'Who are the EU migrants in England and Wales?', CPC Briefing Paper 34 'Expense turns to investment: How the welfare state supports EU migrants' economic achievements' and CPC Briefing Paper 35 'Should I stay or should I go? Strategies of EU citizens living in the UK in the context of the EU referendum'.
To keep up to date with the latest news about our exhibition, follow @CPCpopulation and @UoS_Roadshow on Twitter.
Tuesday, August 29th 2017 - Friday, September 1st 2017
Annual International Conference (Conferences)
Royal Geographical Society, London
Tuesday, August 29th 2017
Tuesday, August 29th 2017
David McCollum organised two sessions via the Population Geography Research Group, as well as giving a presentation.
Thursday, August 3rd 2017 - Sunday, August 6th 2017
CPC makes 'Migration' research fun at BBC Countryfile Live (Public engagement events)

Oxford
Thursday, August 3rd 2017
Thursday, August 3rd 2017
CPC was delighted to have joined BBC Countryfile presenters, the National Trust Theatre and a full programme of exciting exhibitors and talks to share our interactive 'Migration-themed' exhibition with visitors of BBC Countryfile Live in Oxford as part of the 2017 University of Southampton 'Bringing Research to Life' Roadshow.
Using engaging activities including a giant connect four game, the CPC exhibition shared world leading social science research in a fun, easy to understand and accessible way to help tackle public misconceptions about Brexit and EU migrants.
The exhibit refers to research highlighted in CPC Briefing Paper 33 'Who are the EU migrants in England and Wales?', CPC Briefing Paper 34 'Expense turns to investment: How the welfare state supports EU migrants' economic achievements' and CPC Briefing Paper 35 'Should I stay or should I go? Strategies of EU citizens living in the UK in the context of the EU referendum'.
CPC will also be joining the University of Southampton 'Bringing Research to Life' Roadshow at Bournemouth Airshow from 31st August - 2nd September. More information to follow!
To keep up to date with the latest news about our exhibition, follow @CPCpopulation and @UoS_Roadshow on Twitter.
Saturday, July 29th 2017 - Sunday, July 30th 2017
CPC takes interactive research activities to Winchester Science Festival (Public engagement events)

Winchester Discovery Centre
Saturday, July 29th 2017
Saturday, July 29th 2017
CPC was excited to share our interactive and educational 'Migration-themed' exhibition with visitors of Winchester Science Festival as part of the 2017 University of Southampton 'Bringing Research to Life' Roadshow. Using engaging activities including a giant connect four game, the CPC exhibition shared world leading social science research in a fun, easy to understand and accessible way to help tackle public misconceptions about Brexit and EU migrants.
The exhibit refers to research highlighted in CPC Briefing Paper 33 'Who are the EU migrants in England and Wales?', CPC Briefing Paper 34 'Expense turns to investment: How the welfare state supports EU migrants' economic achievements' and CPC Briefing Paper 35 'Should I stay or should I go? Strategies of EU citizens living in the UK in the context of the EU referendum' .
CPC will also be joining the University of Southampton 'Bringing Research to Life' Roadshow at BBC Countryfile Live from 3 - 6 August. More information to follow!
To keep up to date with the latest news about our exhibition, follow @CPCpopulation and @UoS_Roadshow on Twitter.
Tuesday, July 11th 2017
Prof Berrington organises Understanding Society Conference session on family dynamics (Conferences)

Professor Ann Berrington
University of Essex
Tuesday, July 11th 2017
A special session on comparative research using harmonised fertility and partnership history data took place from 15:30 - 17:30 on Tuesday 11 July at the Understanding Society UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) biennial research conference at the University of Essex.
The session, organised by CPC's Professor Ann Berrington brought together researchers working with data from the Generations and Gender Survey, in conjunction with other surveys including the British Household Panel Study (BHPS). The session included discussion of future possibilities to include new partnership and fertility data from UKHLS into the Harmonized History database.
The session programme was as follows:
Brienna Perelli-Harris, University of Southampton. "Is There a Link Between the Divorce Revolution and the Cohabitation Boom?"
Julia Mikolai, University of St Andrews. "The Role of Education in the Intersection of Partnership Transitions and Motherhood in Europe and the United States."
Gunnar Andersson, University of Stockholm. "Life-table Representations of Family Dynamics in the 21st Century".
Tom Emery, Netherlands Institute for Demographic Research. "Comparative research on family dynamics and harmonised data"
Chair: Ann Berrington
Follow @CPCpopulation and @usociety using #usociety17 to keep updated with this event.
Thursday, June 29th 2017 - Saturday, July 1st 2017
9th International Conference on Population Geographies (Conferences)
University of Washington, Seattle
Thursday, June 29th 2017
Thursday, June 29th 2017
David McCollum attended and presented at the 9th International Conference on Population Geographies.
Thursday, June 22nd 2017
Reconciling forecasts of age distribution of death counts: Application to fixed-term annuity pricing (Seminars and lectures)
Hanlin Shang
54/5027
Thursday, June 22nd 2017
3.00pm
The different constituents of age-specific life-table death counts can be represented by a random vector called compositions with non-negative components that sum to a radix.
Data in which the observations are compositions, are called compositional data. An example of which is the age-specific life-table death counts, where the radix is the fixed annual number of births in the life-table population. Age-specific life-table death counts are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state, ethnic group and socioeconomic status.
In making social policies and pricing annuity at national and subnational levels, it is important not only to forecast age distribution of death counts accurately, but also to ensure that forecasts at the subnational level add up to the forecasts at the national level. This motivates recent developments in grouped forecasting methods (Shang and Hyndman, 2017, Shang and Haberman, 2017) to reconcile age-specific mortality forecasts.
We extend the grouped forecasting methods to reconcile forecasts at the national and subnational levels, where a compositional data-analytic approach is adapted to forecast age distribution of death counts. Using the regional age-specific life-table death counts in Japan obtained from the Japanese Mortality Database (2017), we investigate the difference in point forecast accuracy between the independent and grouped forecasting methods. The grouped forecasting methods are shown not only to be useful for reconciling forecasts of age-specific life-table death counts at national and subnational levels, but they are able to improve forecast accuracy. The improved forecast accuracy of life-table death counts is of great interest to demographers and actuaries for estimating life expectancy and annuity prices, in particular at the level of population subgroups, defined by key factors such as sex, region, and socioeconomic grouping.
Friday, June 16th 2017
"I Care" - Celebrating National Carers Week 2017 (Conferences)
University of Stirling
Friday, June 16th 2017
BSG sponsored event organised by CPC members Rosalie Ashworth and Nadine Thomas for National Carers Week.
Tuesday, June 6th 2017
Bringing Research to Life Roadshow at Cheltenham Science Festival (Public engagement events)
Cheltenham
Tuesday, June 6th 2017
CPC held an interactive engagement stand on the implications of Brexit for migration and migrants at this event, which was part of the Bringing Research to Life Roadshow organised by the University of Southampton.
Wednesday, May 31st 2017 - Friday, June 2nd 2017
CPC proud sponsor of Popfest 2017 (Conferences)
Stockholm University
Wednesday, May 31st 2017
Wednesday, May 31st 2017
The Centre for Population Change was delighted to sponsor the 25th Annual Postgraduate Population Studies Conference (PopFest), that took place at Stockholm University from 31 May - 2 June 2017.
Organised by PhD students for PhD students, PopFest is an annual Population Studies conference with the aim to bring together researchers from different Social Science disciplines such as Demography, Human Geography, Urban and Landscape Planning, Sociology, Social Anthropology, Social Statistics, Politics and other related fields. The Annual Population Postgraduate Conference provides a friendly, international environment for postgraduate students to present and discuss their work, chair sessions, and network. Theoretical as well as empirical topics include - but are not limited to: families, fertility, migration, mobility, inequality, health and methods.
PopFest is traditionally organised in conjunction with the British Society for Population Studies (BSPS). PopFest 2017 was hosted by Stockholm University's Demography Unit (SUDA), the Department of Sociology, the Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI), and the Department of Human Geography and this year's Keynote Speakers were:
Gunnar Andersson, Stockholm University, SUDA
David Card, University of California, Berkeley
Further information about the event can be found here: http://www.suda.su.se/about-us/events/popfest-2017
Monday, May 22nd 2017 - Tuesday, May 23rd 2017
PopFest 2017 (Conferences)
Stockholm University
Monday, May 22nd 2017
Monday, May 22nd 2017
CPC held an exhibition stand showcasing our research at this conference for PhD students
Monday, May 22nd 2017 - Tuesday, May 23rd 2017
3rd Workshop on the Economics of Migration (Workshops)
University of Southampton
Monday, May 22nd 2017
Monday, May 22nd 2017
PhD workshop organised by CPC and the University of Southampton.
Thursday, May 18th 2017
Remittances, labour supply and occupational outcomes of the household members left-behind (Seminars and lectures)
Dr Matloob Piracha
54/8033, University of Southampton
Thursday, May 18th 2017
2.00pm
This paper analyses the role of remittances on labour supply and occupational outcomes of the household members left behind. Contrary to some existing evidence, we find no 'dependency' effect of remittances.
Our results show that remittances received by households in Tajikistan have positive effect on generating self-employment opportunities for those left-behind behind, without affecting the number of job-specific hours worked. Any positive effect on economic development would, however, be rather limited, as most household investments are in small-scale subsistence farming activities that do not generate an income stream.
The results obtained are likely to have policy implications for other developing countries as well.
Wednesday, May 17th 2017 - Friday, May 19th 2017
Workshop for PhD students: "Life-course influences on retirement: Researchers' and stakeholders' perspectives" (Workshops)
Helsinki University, Finland
Wednesday, May 17th 2017
Wednesday, May 17th 2017
Traute Meyer is acting as a discussant at this PhD workshop exploring life-course influences on the different aspects of retirement.
Thursday, May 4th 2017
Future and family: first evidence from Italy and Spain (Seminars and lectures)
Lynn Jamieson and Adele Lebano
58/4121, University of Southampton
Thursday, May 4th 2017
The presentation will focus on the evidence emerging from the qualitative interviews conducted in Italy and Spain between October 2016 and March 2017.
The aim of the study is to understand how different circumstances and uncertainties in the present impact on how people see their futures in Italy, Spain and the UK. In-depth interviews with young men and women aged 30-35 are documenting their present choices and views of their futures, including partnership and childbearing. The research participants are men and women without children or with one child in established couple relationships. In each country, the starting point for recruitment is two localities with contrasting regional trends in rates of fertility and economic performance.
The study is part of a bigger programme on fertility change in the context of economic recession, especially on the timing and circumstances of having and not having children.
Thursday, May 4th 2017
Bringing Research to Life Roadshow at The Thomas Hardye School (Public engagement events)
Thomas Hardye School, Dorchester
Thursday, May 4th 2017
CPC held an interactive engagement stand on the implications of Brexit for migration and migrants at this event, which was part of the Bringing Research to Life Roadshow organised by the University of Southampton.
Thursday, April 27th 2017 - Saturday, April 29th 2017
CPC proud to present at nine PAA Annual Meeting sessions (Conferences)
America
Thursday, April 27th 2017
Thursday, April 27th 2017
CPC colleagues were delighted to present nine research titles at the Population Association of America (PAA) Annual Meeting.
The Population Association of America (PAA) is a nonprofit, scientific, professional organisation established to promote the improvement, advancement and progress of the human race through research of problems related to human population.
CPC contributed the following to this meeting:
27 April 2017
Changes in Partners' Relative Incomes and the Gender Revolution, Dr Agnese Vitali et al.
Economic Dependency and Cohabiting Couples' Union Transitions, Dr Jennifer A. Holland, Dr Agnese Vitali
Redundancy and the Great Depression in the Metropolitan Region of Barcelona: Philanthropic Records as a New Source for the Study of Poverty, Juan Galeano, Albert Sabater, Andreu Domingo.
28 April 2017
Timing of Abortions, Births, and Union Dissolutions in Finland, Dr Heini Väisänen et al.
Do early life conditions explain differences in subjective well-being between marriage and cohabitation? A comparison between Australia, the UK, Germany, and Norway, Stefanie Hoherz, Brienna Perelli-Harris et al.
Parental Work Hour Demands and 'Quality Time' with Children, Stefanie Hoherz et al.
"Your World Revolves Around Your Children... a Husband Is Secondary" Exploring How Non-Marital Fertility and Pro-Natalist Values Shape Fertility Transition in the Philippines, Bernice Kuang, Brienna Perelli-Harris et al.
Parental Support and Transition to Second Birth in a Low-Fertility Setting: The Case of Andalusia in Spain, Albert Sabater, et al.
29 April 2017
Partnership Status and the Wage Premium in the U.S., UK, Germany, and Norway: What Explains Differentials Between Married and Cohabiting Adults?, Fenaba Addo, Brienna Perelli-Harris et al.
Further details about the meeting can be found by viewing the PAA programme.
Join in the discussion @CPCPopulation @PopAssocAmerica #paa2017
Tuesday, April 25th 2017
CPC's Dr Bijak talks Bayesian Statistics in Liverpool (Seminars and lectures)

Professor Jakub Bijak
University of Liverpool
Tuesday, April 25th 2017
CPC's Dr Jakub Bijak presented his research in a University of Liverpool Seminar on the topic of '(Population and Spatial Analysis) - Migration, demography and Bayesian statistics'.
Jakub's research interest focuses on the applications of quantitative methods in demography, especially in migration and population forecasting, agent-based population modelling, demography of conflict and violence and international migration studies, as well as on research on population ageing, mortality, links between population and the environment and demographic uncertainty.
For further information about the event, please visit the seminar page here.
Monday, April 24th 2017
CPC informs Brexit discussion at the Palace of Westminster (Conferences)
The Palace of Westminster, London
Monday, April 24th 2017
CPC was delighted to host a policy roundtable event: 'Tales of Migration', in collaboration with Public Policy Southampton, The UK in a Changing Europe and Hilary Benn MP at the Palace of Westminster.
The roundtable discussed recent research findings as part of a project 'Tales of migration: citizenship, benefits and identity in Brexit Britain', which is part of the UK in a Changing Europe initiative.
Following the referendum on the UK's membership of the EU, the topic of migration from other EU countries and free movement has been highlighted as critical and policy-relevant. The debate has also reflected concerns about an overstretched welfare system and alleged benefit tourism. But who are the EU migrants living in the UK, who will arguably be among those most immediately and directly affected by the outcome of the referendum? How have policy changes discussed in the run-up to the referendum already changed EU migrants' entitlements, and how might this affect their economic contribution to the British economy? What coping strategies do EU migrants themselves envisage as the UK leaves the EU? In order to address this evidence gap, research has been undertaken by the Centre for Population Change to provide an independent source of information and insight about UK-EU relations.
The policy roundtable aimed to provide key stakeholders with the opportunity to engage in the policy implications of this research, and to draw together expertise around the issue, in the crucial period during which we define our priorities for Brexit.
Further work forming part of the 'Tales of migration: citizenship, benefits and identity in Brexit Britain', includes important research video podcasts by some of CPC's most esteemed academics on the subject of migration:
'Who is a typical migrant in the UK today?' by Professor Jane Falkingham
'Can migration be fully controlled?' by Dr Jakub Bijak
'Should EU migrants get benefits after Brexit?' by Dr Paul Bridgen
'How much are UK migrants worth?' by Dr Hector Calvo Pardo
'Does migration make us happy?' by Dr Corrado Giulietti
'Will EU migrants stay or leave the UK after Brexit?' by Professor Derek McGhee
Also available are CPC Briefing Papers and Blogs:
CPC Briefing Paper 'Who are EU migrants in England and Wales?'
CPC Briefing Paper 'How to forecast international migration'
CPC Briefing Paper 'Expense turns to investment: How the welfare state supports EU migrants' economic achievements'
CPC Briefing Paper 'Should I stay or should I go? Strategies of EU citizens living in the EU in the context of the EU referendum'
New CPC Blog hosted by The UK in a Changing Europe by Dr Corrado Giulietti 'Immigration and happiness in the UK'
New CPC Blog hosted by Public Policy Southampton by Professor Jane Falkingham 'How Brexit impacts families in the UK'
New CPC Blog hosted by Public Policy Southampton by Dr Jakub Bijak 'Migration: Illusion of prediction, illusion of control'
Tuesday, April 11th 2017
Fabian Society Brexit panel meeting (Other)
St Andrews Hall, Southampton
Tuesday, April 11th 2017
Traute Meyer took part in a panel for an 'Any Questions' style meeting for the Southampton branch of the Fabian Society on the issue of Brexit.
Tuesday, April 4th 2017 - Thursday, April 6th 2017
CPC at the BSA Annual Conference (Conferences)
University of Manchester
Tuesday, April 4th 2017
Tuesday, April 4th 2017
CPC were delighted to have attended the British Sociological Association (BSA) Annual Conference which took place at the University of Manchester from the 4 - 6 April 2017.
The theme for the 2017 Annual Conference was 'Recovering the Social: Personal Troubles and Public Issues' and CPC members Professor Lynn Jamieson, Professor Derek McGhee and Dr Chris Moreh contributed to the programme.
5 April 2017: Professor Derek McGhee and Dr Chris Moreh presented "Undeliberate Determinacy? Estimating the 'Effect' of Brexit on the Migration Strategies of Poles in the UK" linked to CPC project 'Understanding the drivers and consequence of population changes in the UK in the context of a changing Europe'.
6 April 2017: As well as being a member of CPC, Professor Lynn Jamieson is also BSA President and provided the Presidential Address 'Recovering the social: revisiting the more than personal life' for the conference.
6 April 2017: Professor Derek McGhee and Dr Chris Moreh presented "Transnational Citizenship in Times of Brexit: Polish Migrants' Perceptions and Strategies in the Context of the Reconfiguration of Substantial Citizenship Rights in the United Kingdom" linked to CPC project 'Examining the drivers, impacts and long-term trajectories of Polish migration a decade after accession'.
Further details about the conference, including the full programme, can be found on the BSA website: https://www.britsoc.co.uk/
Friday, March 31st 2017
The legacy of Brexit: mobility and citizenship in times of uncertainty (Seminars and lectures)
University of Southampton
Friday, March 31st 2017
The final seminar in the Sociology of Brexit seminar series organised by Chris Moreh and Emilia Pietka-Nykaza. Dr Bridget Byrne from the University of Manchester is the keynote speaker at this event.
Wednesday, March 29th 2017
Future of Museums: Audiences (Public engagement events)
Wellcome Collection, London
Wednesday, March 29th 2017
Jane Falkingham gave a keynote speech on the future of demographic trends at this event.
Wednesday, March 22nd 2017
International and Multi-disciplinary Perspectives on Evidence-based Policy: Seminar 2 Intergenerational Relations (Workshops)
Academy, Finsbury Square
Wednesday, March 22nd 2017
Ann Berrington took part in the first part of this event: "Conversation 1 Implications of changing family forms and household structures for intergenerational relations and policy development" with Emily Grundy and Jane Millar.
Thursday, March 16th 2017
Statistical Issues with Agent-Based Models (Seminars and lectures)
David Banks
54/5027
Thursday, March 16th 2017
2.00pm
Agent-based models have become an ubiquitous tool in many
disciplines. But too little is known about their statistical
properties.
This talk reviews the history and scope of application for
agent-based models, and then describes work that has been done to begin
to understand their statistical properties. In particular, the talk
describes emulator theory and approximate Bayesian computation as
methods for improving model fitting and inference
Thursday, March 2nd 2017
The Relationship between Housing and Fertility: A macro-level, cross-country investigation (Seminars and lectures)
Dr Sarah Brauner-Otto
06/1083
Thursday, March 2nd 2017
3.00pm
Over the past 75 years fertility levels have been dropping across the globe and have reached particularly low levels in most economically developed countries. These low levels are viewed as problematic both because women report wanting more children than they are having and because governments worry about the economic consequences of shrinking populations such as diminished work forces, and increased strain on social welfare systems.
Theoretical frameworks have identified the housing market, specifically the availability and affordability of independent housing, as one factor that may be leading to these low levels of fertility because, for most young adults in economically developed countries, living away from their parents is a necessary precursor to having children. However, to date the empirical link between housing and fertility at the national level remains uninvestigated. In the first macro level empirical investigation of this relationship, this paper explores how multiple aspects of the housing market are related to multiple measures of fertility across 38 countries.
Saturday, February 18th 2017
Radstats 2017 Conference: The Statistics of BREXIT (Conferences)
Victoria Terrace, Edinburgh
Saturday, February 18th 2017
18 February 2017 - How have statistics been used in the arguments for Britain remaining in or leaving the EU? The 'Radstats 2017 Conference and AGM' at Edinburgh Central Quaker Meeting House, organised by Radical Statistics will explore this question and others.
CPC's Director Professor Jane Falkingham will be providing a keynote speech at the event. Drawing on recent funded projects exploring the UK in the context of a changing Europe, Jane's talk will report on the new evidence on the implications for Brexit on the UK population, attitudes and expectations of migrants regarding naturalisation and potential return migration, the role of social policy and the changing rights of migrants.
For programme information contact CPC colleagues Nissa Finney, Albert Sabater and Glenna Nightingale at CONF17@radstats.org.uk
Register for this event here.
Thursday, February 16th 2017
A new look at the housing consequences of union dissolution in Britain (Seminars and lectures)
Rory Coulter, University of Cambridge
University of Southampton, Room 8033, Building 54
Thursday, February 16th 2017
3pm
Paper co-authored with Michael Thomas and Clara H Mulder (University of Groningen). Many studies have shown that union dissolution often has adverse short- and long-term consequences for the housing careers of men and women. However, much of this research concentrates on who exited and subsequently re-entered homeownership after separating during the late twentieth century boom in owner-occupation. As homeownership has become less accessible in recent years and a growing proportion of households now rent privately, it is becoming increasingly important to also know more about how men and women living in rental accommodation adjust their housing and living arrangements in response to partnership dissolution. In consequence, we use up-to-date and geocoded data from the initial waves of the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study to assess how and why the short-term housing outcomes of separation vary by gender, tenure and across Britain. This seminar will present and discuss some initial findings from this ongoing project.
Thursday, December 8th 2016
Modelling Socio-Economic Differences in the Mortality of Danish Males Using a New Affluence Index (Seminars and lectures)
Andrew Cairns, Herriott Watt University
University of Southampton, Room 1085, Building 2
Thursday, December 8th 2016
3pm
We investigate and model how the mortality of Danish males aged 55-94 has changed over the period 1985-2012. We divide the population into ten socio-economic subgroups using a new measure of affluence that combines wealth and income reported on the Statistics Denmark national register database. The affluence index, in combination with sub-group lockdown at age 67, is shown to provide consistent sub-group rankings based on crude death rates across all ages and over all years. This improves significantly on previous studies that have focused on the impact of education or income on life expectancy or age-standardised mortality rates. The gap between the most and least affluent is confirmed to be widest at younger ages and has widened over time.
We introduce a new multi-population mortality model that fits the historical mortality data very well and captures the essential character of the raw data. The model generates smoothed death rates that allow us to work with a larger number of smaller sub-groups than might be considered realistic when working with raw data.
The model produces plausible projections of death rates that preserve the subgroup rankings at all ages. It also satisfies reasonableness criteria related to the term structure of correlations across ages and over time through consideration of future death and survival rates.
Wednesday, December 7th 2016
Lone parents in the UK today (Workshops)
Gingerbread, London
Wednesday, December 7th 2016
7 December 2016 - Single parents in the UK have been affected by cuts to welfare support, pressure to be in employment and obligations to pay high childcare costs. What is the real cost of benefit changes to those that rely on them, and how can risks and insecurity be mitigated in the future?
A conference organised by CPC, the University of Southampton and the University of York was held at Gingerbread, the London-based leading charity working with single parent families, to share current research on lone parents and inform social policy in the UK today.
Guests were invited from government departments, think tanks and the voluntary sector to exchange ideas, form new networks and join sessions on 'Family cash benefits and the risks of poverty in lone parent families' with Jonathan Bradshaw from the University of York and 'Bad jobs and food insecurity among single mother households in the USA' with Amanda Sheely from LSE. Dalia Ben-Galim, Director of Policy, Advice and Communications at Gingerbread gave the keynote speech.
Read related published articles by Helen Kowalewska 'Beyond the 'Train-First'/'Work-First' Dichotomy: How Welfare States Help or Hinder Maternal Employment' and 'Diminishing returns: lone mothers' financial work and incomes incentives under the Coalition'
Read related working paper by Professor Ann Berrington 'The changing demography of lone parenthood in the UK'
Tuesday, December 6th 2016
Understanding population change in Europe and China: Sharing research experiences for policy development (Workshops)
University of Southampton
Tuesday, December 6th 2016
Research symposium jointly organised between CPC, the China Population and Development Research Centre and China Research Centre. Maria Evandrou, Athina Vlachantoni, Jakub Bijak, Agnese Vitali, Brienna Perelli-Harris and Jane Falkingham were speaking at this event.
Thursday, December 1st 2016
Immigrants and fertility in the UK: Macro and micro perspectives (Seminars and lectures)
Sylvie Dubuc, University of Oxford
University of Southampton, Room 1023, Building 58
Thursday, December 1st 2016
2pm
1 December 2016 - Migration and fertility patterns are changing. What impact is this having on UK population growth? A Seminar organised by CPC with Dr Sylvie Dubuc of the University of Oxford explored the tangible effects of migration on UK population change.
The seminar focussed on the indirect contribution of immigration to population growth in the UK, through fertility. Examining fertility of immigrants and their children, within ethnic groups, and across successive cohorts of immigrant women, reveals a process of inter-ethnic convergence. Sylvie presented evidence of intergenerational fertility reduction and investigated the role of women's educational attainment. The results were discussed within the theoretical framework available to analyse fertility of immigrants and minority groups, including the minority status, the assimilation model and transnational perspectives. Although the ongoing intergenerational fertility convergence for groups originating from high fertility countries is congruent with the assimilation theory, the diversity of socio-demographic patterns across and within ethnic groups suggests that more complex macro-micro processes are at play.
A video of this event will soon be available.
Thursday, November 24th 2016
CPC Scotland AGM (Other)
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, November 24th 2016
Small scale Annual General Meeting for CPC Scotland members.
Thursday, November 24th 2016
Job Control, Demand and Moral Distress Among Social Care Workers in England (Seminars and lectures)
Shereen Hussein, King's College London
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, November 24th 2016
1pm
This presentation is based on empirical studies on the English social care workforce spanning 2010 to 2016. I will start by providing an overview of the organisation of social care in England and the characteristics of its workforce highlighting the significance of gender and migration in the recruitment and retention to the care sector. The focus of the presentation would be on examining the nature of care work as 'emotionally taxing' and its impact on psychological job stress and its contributing and mitigating factors. The analysis is based on a large survey of care workers as part of the Longitudinal Care Work Study (LoCS). The LoCS survey utilised standardised scales of the Karasek's Job content Questionnaire ('JCQ'), which is an instrument designed to identify two crucial aspects of work: job demands - the stressors existing in the work environment - and job decision latitude (control) - the extent to which workers have the potential to control their tasks and conduct throughout the working day. Here, the job Control-Demand (CD) model postulates job strain as the result of an interaction between demand and control and examines contributing and mitigating factors; such as level of support received at the work place within the context of care. Analysis of qualitative interviews is used to explore how moral distress can manifest itself in every day care work activities.
Friday, November 18th 2016
1st Meeting of the Fast-Track Project on Migration (Other)
VDI/VDE Innovation + Technik GmbH, Berlin
Friday, November 18th 2016
Jane Falkingham representing the UK and ESRC in order to shape a future funding call.
Thursday, November 10th 2016 - Friday, November 11th 2016
CPC AGM (Other)
De Vere New Place, Shirrell Heath
Thursday, November 10th 2016
Thursday, November 10th 2016
Large scale Annual General Meeting for all CPC members and NRS and ONS links
Thursday, November 10th 2016
Brexit: an academic conference (Conferences)
Houses of Parliament, London
Thursday, November 10th 2016
This conference brought together parliamentary researchers and academics to consider some of the key policy areas affected by the UK's decision to leave the EU. CPC held an exhibition stand and CPC Allan Findlay, Corrado Giulietti and Jakub Bijak presented their work at this event held at the Houses of Parliament in London.
Monday, November 7th 2016
Public Roundtable "Still Home Abroad? Polish Migration to Scotland after Brexit" (Other)
University of Aberdeen
Monday, November 7th 2016
Chris Moreh took part in the public roundtable discussion discussing how the EU referndum result affects the Polish community in Scotland and what are people's responses.
Thursday, October 27th 2016
Testing concurrent validity in retrospective life history data using a prospective cohort study (Seminars and lectures)
Stephen Jivraj, UCL Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care
University of Southampton, Room 1065, Building 58
Thursday, October 27th 2016
2pm
Paper co-authored with Alissa Goodman (UCL Institute of Education), George Ploubidis (UCL Institute of Education) and Cesar de Oliveira (UCL Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care).
This study determines whether comparable prospective and retrospective data present the same direction and magnitude of association between childhood and life course characteristics and later life health and economic wellbeing. We use prospective data taken from the 1958 National Child Development Study at age 50 in 2008 and earlier sweeps at age 7, 11, 16, 23, 33, 42, 46 (n=8,033). Retrospective data is taken from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing at age 50 from a life history interview in 2007 (n=921). There is a high degree of similarity in the magnitude of regression coefficients of certain childhood circumstances predicting health and economic wellbeing outcomes, suggesting that although there may be issues of recall error in retrospective data, it is not biased for the variables used in the analysis, and leads to similar associations when taking into account contemporaneous and life course characteristics. The findings provide reassurance to the growing literature using life history data to determine life course associations with later life wellbeing outcomes.
Associated Downloads
Thursday, October 27th 2016
Successful ageing in the West of Scotland (Seminars and lectures)
Elise Whitley, University of Glasgow
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, October 27th 2016
1pm
Longevity is increasing worldwide and there is a rapidly growing interest in identifying individuals who age "successfully" and in understanding why they do so. This seminar will explore aspects of successful ageing in a large cohort of older men and women living in the West of Scotland. I will consider how we identify individuals who are ageing successfully, explore how socioeconomic position across the life-course impacts on successful ageing, and describe how leaving the labour force later in life impacts on aspects of successful ageing.
Friday, October 14th 2016
Debate on future pension policy in Germany (Other)
National Conference for Justice in Pension Policies of the Green Party, Berlin
Friday, October 14th 2016
14 October 2016 - Professor Traute Meyer was part of a panel of distinguished speakers debating the pension system at the National Conference for Justice in Pension Policies of the Green Party, Berlin.
The PAYG pension system has become stable after the last financial crisis. At the same time the pension is no longer enough for people to live on and they must apply for basic security. In Germany there is still no minimum pension, or even a universal health insurance as there is in other countries. This conference explored the challenges of the pension system in Germany and asked what Germany can learn from studies in other countries to achieve a reliable scheme which avoids poverty in old age. Some of the possible solutions which were explored included a tax-financed basic pension system and reforms to the existing PAYG pension. This conference session looked at what is desired, what might be possible and took expert advice on ways forward. As well as CPC's Traute Meyer, panel members included Prof. Stefan Sell (University Koblenz), Markus Kurth MP and was chaired by Wolfgang Kuhn Strengemann-MP.
Professor Meyer's long established work on pensions, including her previous research project 'The reconstruction of British and German pension regimes' positioned her well to debate the challenges of the current pension system and provide evidence to influence positive changes to future pension policy.
Friday, October 14th 2016
National Conference for justice in pension policies of the Green Party (Conferences)
German Bundestag, Berlin
Friday, October 14th 2016
Traute Meyer spoke in the panel debate titled "What's in the pension system? Basic pension from taxes or retirement pension by allocation?"
Thursday, October 13th 2016 - Friday, October 14th 2016
Interrelations between public policies; migration and development (Conferences)
OECD Conference Centre, Paris
Thursday, October 13th 2016
Thursday, October 13th 2016
Jackie Wahba was a speaker for the panel session on "Public policies and return migration"
Thursday, October 13th 2016
Are we a nation of savers? Roundtable discussion at the SNP Conference (Other)
Glasgow
Thursday, October 13th 2016
Robert Wright took part in the Roundtable discussion held as part of the SNP Conference. This invitation only event was hosted by Prospect Magazine, supported by Legal and General.
Thursday, September 29th 2016
Estimation of a synthetic wage measure using detailed standard occupation classifications (Seminars and lectures)
Tom Clemens, University of Edinburgh
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, September 29th 2016
1pm
Income level is predictive of many health outcomes and is therefore an important potential confounder in many health studies. However, survey measurement of income is tricky and is often missing or poorly measured in epidemiological studies because of its complexity and sensitivity. This seminar outlines an alternative approach based on the estimation of a synthetic wage measure based on detailed occupation categories. The talk will discuss the method we adopted, the performance of the newly created synthetic measure compared to other measures of socio-economic status and wider uses and extensions of the measure. I will also discuss how the measure can be created in other datasets based on a simple user written program in the Stata software package. The seminar will conclude with a discussion of the extent to which measures such as these may reduce the need to collect income information in surveys and administrative data.
Monday, September 26th 2016 - Thursday, September 29th 2016
How to get to 100 and enjoy it. interactive exhibition (Public engagement events)
European Parliament, Brussels
Monday, September 26th 2016
Monday, September 26th 2016
5:30pm
26 - 29 September 2016 - CPC has been working with Population Europe to take the popular "How to get to 100 and enjoy it" exhibition to the European Parliament. The opening event took place on 26th September from 5:30pm, attendance was free and open to all.
At the opening event, experts from research, policy and civil society discussed the opportunities and challenges of population ageing in Europe with a special focus on active ageing and care. The programme started with talks on the latest research findings by:
Professor Jane Falkingham OBE, Director of the ESRC Centre for Population Change, University of Southampton, UK.
Professor Axel Börsch-Supan, Director of the Munich Center for the Economics of Aging at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy, Munich.
The presentations were followed by a panel debate involving researchers and stakeholders from policy and civil society:
Heinz K. Becker, Member of the European Parliament, Brussels.
Professor Axel Börsch-Supan, Director of the Munich Center for the Economics of Aging at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy, Munich.
Professor Jane Falkingham OBE, Director of the ESRC Centre for Population Change, University of Southampton, UK.
Helmut Kramer, Founding President of the Austrian Interdisciplinary Platform on Ageing, Vienna.
Montserrat Mir Roca, Confederal Secretary of the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC), Brussels.
Stecy Yghemonos, Director of Eurocarers, Brussels.
Monday, September 26th 2016 - Thursday, September 29th 2016
Ageing in Europe (Public engagement events)
European Parliament, Brussels
Monday, September 26th 2016
Monday, September 26th 2016
26 - 29 September 2016 - One in three children born in Europe today will live to reach 100, what does this mean for society, public policy and the life course of individuals? A CPC and Population Europe event organised in the European Parliament attempted to unpick some of the issues and think about how social policy might be shaped in the future to adapt to our changing lifespans.
The panel debate on the 26th September launched the opening of the Population Europe"How to get to 100 and enjoy it" exhibition which previously toured the UK. Bringing together experts from research, policy and civil society the opening debate discussed the opportunities and challenges of population ageing in Europe with a special focus on active ageing and care.
Sponsor and host of the event Mr Heinz K Becker MEP, gave a passionate opening address from his perspective as Vice President of the Parliamentary Group on Ageing and Intergenerational Solidarity, VC of the Parliamentary Interest Group on Carers and Member of the European Parliament Disability Group. Panel members included;
CPC Director Professor Jane Falkingham OBE. Professor Axel Börsch-Supan, Director of the Munich Center for the Economics of Aging at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy, Munich. Helmut Kramer, Founding President of the Austrian Interdisciplinary Platform on Ageing, Vienna. Montserrat Mir Roca, Confederal Secretary of the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC), Brussels, and Stecy Yghemonos, Director of Eurocarers, Brussels.
An energetic debate took place with Moderator Harald Wilkozewski asking the panel challenging questions. CPC's Jane Falkingham talked about how we measure old age and its changing meaning as well as discussing the importance of life course sensitive social policy. Stecy Yghemonos noted the importance of informal carers and their health and wellbeing, echoing CPCs research in this area. The audience noted the vital role of women as carers and the juxtaposition of policy focus on women in paid work was deliberated. Jane Falkingham considered that men are less likely to ask employers for flexible working patterns than women while Montserrat Mir Roca put to the panel the critical importance of work and the type of work individuals do on their later life outcomes. Axel Börsch-Supan dispelled the myth that older workers take jobs away from the young. Jane Falkingham examined the distribution of work across the lifecourse and new forms of social protection. The panel endorsed the importance of a lifetime perspective, starting with childhood, and fundamentally addressing inequality throughout life to close the gaps in life expectancy according to socioeconomic status. Healthy life expectancy was debated, with consideration of what is needed for healthy and active ageing and what kind of engagement individuals, policy and other social actors play in achieving it.
The debate, enabled through funding from the ESRC, was attended by various Members of European Parliament, the European Commission and Chief Executive Officers of several NGO's. The exhibition in the European Parliament runs until 29th September with Researchers on hand to guide visitors through the exhibition. An App is now available containing the content of the exhibition.
Tuesday, September 20th 2016
Deviations from normative family trajectories and life satisfaction at older ages (Seminars and lectures)
Bruno Arpino, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
University of Southampton, Room 1067, Building 58
Tuesday, September 20th 2016
3pm
An increasing body of research has focused on the interplay between fertility and life satisfaction. A lot of research efforts have also been devoted to understanding the relationship between other demographic events, such as marriage, and subjective wellbeing. Whereas the majority of this research takes adult population as its target, less is known about the effect of past family trajectories on wellbeing of older people.
In this paper we assess how different patterns of family trajectories can affect current life satisfaction of older people in Europe. We also study the role of the level of adherence of individual trajectories to normative (most frequent) family trajectories. We hypothesize that those individuals who experienced uncommon trajectories accumulated stress and negative feelings throughout their life which could exert negative long-term influence on their subjective wellbeing.
We apply sequence analysis and optimal matching on retrospective data from the third wave of the Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARELIFE) to calculate distances between individual family trajectories and normative trajectories, defined by representative (medoid) trajectories by sex, birth cohort and geographical area. Subsequently, we estimate linear regression models to assess the association between deviations from normative trajectories and older people's life satisfaction.
Saturday, September 17th 2016
Women in Public Service (Public engagement events)
University of Cambridge
Saturday, September 17th 2016
Free event aimed at inspiring women into the possibility of second careers in public service. Jackline Wahba spoke at the event.
Monday, September 12th 2016 - Wednesday, September 14th 2016
British Society of Population Studies Conference (Conferences)
University of Winchester
Monday, September 12th 2016
Monday, September 12th 2016
12 -14 September 2016 -Many CPC members contributed to this yearâ's British Society of Population Studies Conference (BSPS) conference at the University of Winchester.
CPCâ's core objectives are linked closely to that of the British Society for Population studies, this is never more evident than in our participation in the societyâ's annual conference. CPC Director Jane Falkingham is the incumbent president of BSPS and took great pleasure in being involved in the conference planning which provided a platform for scientific discussion, learning and exchange of ideas. Other CPC members coordinated several of the academic strands this year including Athina Vlachantoni who organised the sessions on 'Ageing and the lifecourseâ' and Jakub Bijak who was organiser of the 'Innovative data, methods and modelsâ' presentations. With 23 presentations by CPC across the three days, there was lots of CPC research for delegates to enjoy.
Presentations from CPC members included Elspeth Graham and Albert Sabaterâ's work on 'Low educational attainment and UK fertility change in times of austerityâ' which studies potential contributing factors in large scale population changes in Italy and Spain, particularly in the context of the economic recession.
Ann Berrington and Juliet Stone presented their work on 'Income, welfare and the transition to third birth in the UKâ' from the project 'Fertility dynamics in the context of economic recessionâ'. This work focusses on the factors that influence a womanâ's decision to have a third child.
In their presentation 'Integrated probabilistic population forecasts for the United Kingdom: A Bayesian approachâ', Jason Hilton, Jakub Bijak, Eren Dodd, Jonathan Forster and Peter Smith explored the ways Bayesian methods of predicting population change can be used to improve forecasting in the UK. This work is part of the project Probabilistic population forecasting.
Work by Maria Evandrou, Jane Falkingham, Madelin Gomez Leon and Athina Vlachantoniâ's on 'The dynamics of social care and paid work in mid-lifeâ' examines how families cope with caring for relatives and what impact this has on their employment status.
For full information about the conference, visit the conference Website
Friday, September 2nd 2016
Migration and citizenship: evidence from two referendums (Seminars and lectures)
University of the West of Scotland, Paisley Campus
Friday, September 2nd 2016
CPC helped to organise this SRF funded Sociological Review Research Seminar Series event.
Wednesday, August 31st 2016 - Saturday, September 3rd 2016
European Population Conference 2016 (Conferences)
Mainz, Germany
Wednesday, August 31st 2016
Wednesday, August 31st 2016
31 August - 3 September 2016 - CPC members were busy preparing presentations, posters and the exhibition booth for this year's European Population Conference (EPC). The conference was hosted at the Johannes Gutenberg University in Mainz, Germany. Twenty-six presentations from CPC members paid special attention to this year's theme 'Demographic change and policy implications'.
Talks by CPC members included a presentation of current work on 'Intergenerational Flows of Support between Parents and Adult Children' by Maria Evandrou, Jane Falkingham, Madelin Gomez Leon and Athina Vlachantoni's in session 97. This work investigates the extent to which the receipt of help from parents in early adulthood affects the chances of adult-children supporting their parents later in life. Results from the research show that three-quarters of both men and women had received some kind of help from their parents in adulthood, and more than half provided some kind of support towards their parents at age 50. More about this research can also be seen in our Working Paper.
In session 5 chaired by Agnese Vitali, Elspeth Graham, Francesca Fiori and Albert Sabater presented their work on large scale fertility trends in Italy and Spain over the past two decades, in the context of economic recession. During this time both countries have seen a reduction in the number of births, leading the team to investigate the role population composition has made to this decline. This work is part of the project 'Fertility in the context of economic recession and international migration; an analysis of Britain, Italy and Spain'.
As part of his research on 'Complex models of demographic change' Jason Hilton presented results, in session 58, from an agent-based model of inter-generational fertility change, which uses simulation to investigate how wave-like patterns in fertility may arise from individual decisions to start a family.
Work on the timing of fertility among recent migrants to England and Wales by Ann Berrington and James Robards was presented in poster session 1. Their research, published in Demographic Research, investigates how the timing of childbearing differs between women moving to the UK from various countries of birth. The main findings, which build on previous research, show that, compared to the other countries studied, women born in Pakistan or Bangladesh are the most likely to have children in the first 5 years after moving to England or Wales. In contrast, women from India and Poland generally delay childbearing until some years after migration.
Alongside the work on fertility of migrants, Ann also presented her work with Juliet Stone on the link between household income and education with the number of children a woman is likely to have throughout her lifetime. This work will be presented in session 67 and builds on research discussed in our Briefing Paper.
Jennifer Holland and Agnese Vitali spoke about their project 'Women's economic dependency and the transition to marriage' in session 102 which explores female breadwinner partnerships in the United States, and how likely these couples are to get married. This work links to Agnese's ESRC Future Leaders scheme project 'Female Breadwinner Families in Europe'.
CPC also had an information stand in the exhibition space, with copies of a variety of our work available. Visitors had the opportunity to come along and talk to our Researchers and Research Manager to find out more about our work and see what free materials were available.
Full details of the programme can be seen on the conference website.
Tuesday, July 19th 2016
Brexit - the Fallout for immigration and the economy (Other)
House of Commons, London
Tuesday, July 19th 2016
An All-Party Parliamentary Group for Social Science and Policy meeting with presentations by Jonathan Portes from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research and Jane Falkingham.
Monday, July 18th 2016 - Friday, July 22nd 2016
21st International AIDS Conference (Conferences)
Durban, South Africa
Monday, July 18th 2016
Monday, July 18th 2016
18-22 July 2016 - Findings from HIV studies and intervention trials involving CPC researchers were presented at The 21st International AIDS Conference, which took place in Durban, South Africa. Prince Harry, Sir Elton John and Ban Ki-moon were among those speaking at the conference which had the theme 'Access Equity Rights Now'. Over 18,000 delegates from around the world listened as Scientists, NGOs, world leaders, policy makers and people living with HIV shared new findings and experiences in order to improve the health and wellbeing of around 36.7 million people living with HIV worldwide.
CPC Professors Nuala McGrath and Vicky Hosegood have been involved several long-term research projects in collaboration with the Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, the Human Sciences Research Council and the ALPHA network. Among the work being presented were the first results from two trials; the Uthando Lwethu ("Our Love") randomized controlled trial which aims to increase the rates of couples HIV testing in rural South Africa; and the Treatment as Prevention randomized treatment trial which evaluates the impact of starting antiretroviral therapy immediately after identification of HIV-infection regardless of clinical stage. The studies aim to reduce the numbers of people newly acquiring HIV each year and were conducted in KwaZulu-Natal by consortia of international researchers. Further information about the wider project can be found here.
The AIDS Conference had considerable media coverage and over the course of the week abstracts, presentations and interviews became available to view on the website.
Tuesday, July 5th 2016 - Wednesday, July 6th 2016
Workshop of the International Network on Transnational Families (Workshops)
University of St Andrews
Tuesday, July 5th 2016
Tuesday, July 5th 2016
5-6 July 2016 - CPC was delighted to host the second workshop of the International Network on Transnational Families at the University of St Andrews.
The International Network on Transnational Families (INTF) brings together an international group of researchers working on transnational families in different parts of the world. Its aim is to promote collaboration and develop comparative studies. The inaugural meeting was held at the University of Maastricht in July 2015, when 15 invited participants discussed their work and drew up plans for comparative analyses using data from two or more world regions. Preliminary results were discussed at the second workshop, with a view to publishing a collection of journal papers. New participants also had the opportunity to introduce their work and the group discussed further collaborations.
Prior to the workshop CPC Co-Director Elspeth Graham said "We are greatly looking forward to welcoming delegates to the second workshop here in Scotland to consider our initial findings and to develop proposals for future comparative studies."
Monday, July 4th 2016 - Wednesday, July 6th 2016
Building research capacity through support for PopFest (Conferences)
University of Manchester
Monday, July 4th 2016
Monday, July 4th 2016
4 - 6 July 2016 - CPC continued to support the annual PopFest Conference by providing additional funding to the organisers and supporting student attendance.
This year we were pleased to sponsor PhD student Helen Packwood to attend. Helen, whose thesis explores changing ethnic identities of young people in Scotland, is closely linked with CPC's research aims having previously worked with CPC on the 'Migration and the constitutional future of Scotland' project prior to starting her doctorate.
Helen was excited to be attending PopFest and presenting her latest research. Speaking about the opportunity prior to the conference she commented: 'As a first year postgraduate student I'm quickly learning the value of connecting with other researchers. PopFest is an exciting opportunity to meet with (and learn from) a wide range of academics and researchers. My experience as a Research Fellow with the Centre for Population Change has taught me the value of working across subject boundaries.
I am particularly looking forward to presenting my paper 'Mind the educational attainment gap, placing child poverty and ethnicity'. This work is seeking to develop a critical understanding of how child poverty interacts with issues of ethnicity, migration and educational attainment. The research aims to contribute to research and wider policy debates around integration and inequalities. You can find a sixty-second overview of the project here.'
PopFest is an annual Population Studies conference organised by postgraduate students for postgraduate students from across the UK and Europe. It brings together Social Science researchers from various disciplines such as Demography, Human Geography, Sociology, Social Statistics, Politics and other related fields. This year was the 24th Annual PopFest and was hosted by the University of Manchester.
The 2016 programme was packed with opportunities for postgraduate students to present their work and meet colleagues working in a range of fields from across the world. The conference provided a relaxed, supportive environment for students to come together to present work, attendees had an excellent opportunity to discuss their work with their peers and get feedback.
PopFest is organised in conjunction with the British Society for Population Studies (BSPS). You can find out more information on the conference on the PopFest website.
Thursday, June 30th 2016
Moving to move up? Disentangling the link between spatial and occupational mobility (Seminars and lectures)
David McCollum, University of St Andrews
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, June 30th 2016
1pm
Despite being the focus of much research, the relationship between spatial and social mobility remains contested. The key question in these debates relates to the issue of how individual and place effects, and spatial mobility, interact to generate specific occupational outcomes and trajectories. Whilst conceptually intriguing, a longstanding challenge faced by scholars in this realm relates to the availability of data sources and methodological approaches that allow for the empirical definition and disentanglement of the various factors that 'produce' occupational mobility. The approach taken in this analysis explores these relationships in the context of occupational mobility in Scotland 2001-2011 using the census based Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLS). This presentation will consider the practical and theoretical advances offered by this approach to examining the complex nexus between occupational and spatial mobility. We will also introduce a new project which will mainly use the SLS to explore recent internal population dynamics in Scotland.
Monday, June 27th 2016 - Tuesday, June 28th 2016
Political Citizenship and Social Movements (Conferences)
University of Portsmouth
Monday, June 27th 2016
Monday, June 27th 2016
27 - 28 June 2016 - Derek McGhee, Chris Moreh and Emilia Pietka-Nykaza were delighted to be presenting their latest research at the 'Political Citizenship and Social Movements' conference.
The two day event, held at the University of Portsmouth, comprised of keynote talks and research presentations and was an opportunity for academics to discuss ideas and share experiences. The conference looked at how citizenship and social movements or group actions such as protests where people are campaigning for a common goal, interact with each other in today's world. Particularly focussing on how social movements such as the Occupy movement, which organised camps in public spaces across the world to protest against social and economic inequality, have changed peoples' perception of their own citizenship and how social movements and citizenship continue to evolve together.
Chris Moreh, whose work focuses on the sociology of citizenship, mobility and political discourse, commented "I am delighted to be among a group of academics who will represent the University of Southampton at this conference. I am delivering a paper on "External ethnic citizenship constellations in Central Eastern Europe". The paper provides a partial theoretical underpinning to a research project I will be working on which explores 'citizenship experience' and the naturalisation decision-making process."
Emilia and Derek presented a paper as part of the special panel 'Beyond European National Boundaries'. Of the opportunity to present their work Emilia said 'I am really looking forward to attending the conference and presenting our work on political participation and political rights of Polish migrants in Scotland in the context of the Scottish Independence Referendum in 2014 and the General Election in 2015.' This work is part of the 'Examining the drivers, impacts and long-term trajectories of Polish migration a decade after accession' project which focuses on how and where in Scotland Polish migrants' settle and patterns of returning to Poland.
Organised by the BSA Citizenship Study Group and the European Consortium for Political Research (ECPR) Standing Group on Citizenship, further information about this event can be found on the University of Portsmouth website.
Tuesday, June 21st 2016
Bayesian demography made (almost) simple (Seminars and lectures)
John Bryant, Statistics New Zealand
University of Southampton, Building 58, Room 1007
Tuesday, June 21st 2016
3pm
Demographers are beginning to embrace Bayesian statistical methods. However, the barriers to entry are high. To tackle realistic problems, in research or in practical applications, demographers need to learn significant amounts of mathematical statistics and statistical computing. The talk will look at an attempt to lower the barriers. We are trying to develop a small suite of models that can be applied to a wide variety of tasks in demography, and to implement them in user-friendly R packages. One of the key challenges is developing sensible defaults, which requires us to identify good demographic or statistical practice, and turn it into computer code. Another challenge is to develop models that are easy to understand, but that perform adequately on a wide range of problems.
Friday, June 17th 2016
The spectre of Brexit: free movement and European citizenship in question (Seminars and lectures)
University of Southampton
Friday, June 17th 2016
9am
17 June 2016 - A one day seminar hosted at the University of Southampton looked at the potential consequences of the EU Referendum from a sociological point of view. With keynote speeches by Professor Adrian Favell (University of Leeds) and Dr Michaela Benson (Goldsmiths, University of London).
Part of the research seminar series "The sociology of 'Brexit': citizenship, belonging and mobility in the context of the British referendum on EU membership" funded by The Sociological Review Foundation.
The upcoming referendum on whether the United Kingdom should remain a member of the European Union is one of great social significance, yet sociological research has not engaged with the question in any depth. This one-day seminar attempted to fill this gap by debating the observable and expected consequences of a radically changed relationship between the UK and the EU, focusing specifically on those whose lives are most directly affected by the referendum and the spectre of "Brexitâ": EU citizens living in Britain, and British citizens living in other EU countries. Scholarly contributions to the seminar discussed the experiences of such 'mobile citizens', and citizenship was the core theoretical concept addressed in the context of the anticipation and possible outcomes of the EU referendum.
For more information on the seminar series visit the website
Friday 17 June, 9am - 4pm
University of Southampton
Thursday, June 9th 2016
Abortion trajectories: a conceptual framework and research reflections (Seminars and lectures)
Ernestina Coast, London School of Economics
University of Southampton, Building 58, Room 1007
Thursday, June 9th 2016
3pm
Unsafe abortion is a significant but preventable cause of global maternal mortality and morbidity; liberal abortion laws do not guarantee access to safe abortion. Dr Coast will present reflections on understandings of abortion, including:
1. a new conceptual framework for understanding trajectories to abortion
2. perspectives on the role of abortion in fertility transitions
3. findings from recent research on abortion in Zambia.
Associated Downloads
/docs/old/Abortion_trajectories_Ernestina_Coast_June_2016.pdf
Thursday, May 26th 2016
England's post war birth cohorts: living longer, but are they healthier? (Seminars and lectures)
Dr Stephen Jivraj, University College London
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, May 26th 2016
1pm
Despite improvements in life expectancy in many countries, there is uncertainty whether increase in years of healthy life expectancy has kept pace. This paper explores whether there is empirical support for the expansion of morbidity hypothesis using a range of subjective and objective health outcomes for English post war born cohorts. Repeated annual cross-sections are taken from the Health Survey for England, 1993-2013. Synthetic cohorts born between 1945 and 1980 are compared at the same age using logistic regression. The models are stratified by gender, and control for age, education and interaction terms in three steps. We find that younger post-war birth cohorts have poorer or similar health at the same age according to self-assessed general health, diagnosed hypertension (in men only), diagnosed and clinical diabetes, coronary heart disease (in men only) and BMI. The gaps within post-war birth cohorts are widening between social groups, especially in women. Our findings lend support to the expansion of morbidity hypothesis and point to an increased future demand for certain healthcare services at younger ages and from those groups who are least able to help themselves. This will have notable implications for public healthcare providers as the current working age population enters retirement.
Wednesday, May 25th 2016
Pint of Science Festival: Predicting Migration (Public engagement events)
Brewhouse and Kitchen, Southampton
Wednesday, May 25th 2016
7pm
25 May 2016 - Jakub Bijak spoke at the "People on the move: Understanding Migration" event, part of the Pint of Science Festival in Southampton. Pint of Science is a non-profit organisation which coordinates a festival of interesting and relevant talks on the latest science research in an accessible format to the public in pubs across the world. The event also included pub quizzes, hands-on activities and pint-sized experiments.
Dr Bijak's talk, "Predicting Migrationâ", explored the fascinating and controversial world of international migration. It focused on the uncertainty with regard to who are migrants; why, how, where, when, and how many people migrate; and how many more are expected to do so. He examined the extent to which policies can influence migration, and looked at the possible responses to the current refugee crisis. Specifically in the context of the European referendum, he concentrated on the UK and EU migration.
Also talking at the event was CPC Associate Dr Corrado Giulietti. 'Welfare Magnets and Happiness' investigated whether and how migration can influence the happiness of individuals. He spoke about how economists study this important issue and what empirical evidence there is so far.
The event was held at the Brewhouse and Kitchen pub on Wednesday 25 May 2016 at 7pm, find out more here.
Wednesday, May 25th 2016
People on the Move: Understanding Migration. Pint of Science Event (Public engagement events)
Brewhouse and Kitchen, Southampton
Wednesday, May 25th 2016
Jakub Bijak presenting a talk on "Predicting Migration" at the Pint of Science event taking place at the Brewhouse and Kitchen, Southampton.
Friday, May 20th 2016
Aberdeen business breakfast briefing on the EU (Other)
Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber Of Commerce.
Friday, May 20th 2016
Breakfast meeting with panel and Q&A. Organised in partnership with the Economic and Social Research Council's The UK in a Changing Europe, the Centre on Constitutional Change and Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce. David Bell took part in the event.
Thursday, May 19th 2016
Long Term Care for older people in China: Need, cost and policy design (Seminars and lectures)
Xiaoting Liu, Zhejiang University
University of Southampton 02/1039 (L/T K)
Thursday, May 19th 2016
3pm
A joint CPC and CRA seminar: China is ageing very rapidly, and by mid-century, it will have 'caught up' with many countries in the developed world with respect to population ageing. Long term care (LTC) policy development, therefore, is becoming a priority in China, although it is still in its infancy. This seminar provides an integrated framework of need-and-cost analysis on the basis of ADLs/IADLs disability prevalence and its trends, before putting forward a budget proposal for a public, means-tested system of LTC provision.
The dynamics of disability and related social determinants were investigated using three waves of nationally representative longitudinal data (SSAPUR, 2000, 2006 and 2010), applying a Random Effect model and a Generalized Estimating Equation model. Healthy life expectancy was estimated by the Sullivan method. The results indicated that the disability prevalence declined as life expectancy and disability-free life expectancy increased, and the duration of disability changed from compression to expansion.
The number of disabled older people in need of LTC was estimated taking key social determinants into account (e.g. socio-economic status, urbanization, health insurance, health-risk behaviours). Results indicate that about 44 million people aged 60 and over (and 27 million persons aged 80+) would be in need of long term care in 2050.
Against the background of a critical policy debate on whether to initiate LTC insurance in China, this research proposes a safety net public subsidy policy for the provision of LTC services both for today and into the future. As part of the government's responsibility, this subsidy policy is more realistic currently, and benefits vulnerable older groups. Using projections in several scenarios, the total LTC cost is projected to be only 0.25% of GDP to begin with (equivalent to about 1.25% of fiscal revenues), and will constitute about 1.42% of GDP in 2050, which is in line with the current average LTC expenditures among OECD countries (1.6% of GDP).
Associated Downloads
Wednesday, May 11th 2016
China's Changing Demography is Changing China and the World (Seminars and lectures)
University of Southampton
Wednesday, May 11th 2016
11 May 2016 - Professor Dudley Poston, of Texas A&M University, visited the University of Southampton to present his findings from research he has conducted on changes in China's demography.
This lecture focused on the impact that changes in China's demography over the past few decades could have on the United States, and the rest of the world.
It is predicted some of the issues to face China in the next few decades will be that their global dominance in manufacturing will end, there will not be enough Chinese women for Chinese men to marry, HIV/AIDS infection rates will rise substantially, and Chinese immigrants to America will outnumber those from Mexico. These, and related possible changes in China's demography were discussed, drawing on professor Poston's research. He showed how these changes, if they come to be reality, could impact, China, the U.S., and the world.
This lecture links to CPC's work on Gender Disadvantage, Social Inequalities and Well-being of Economic Migrants in China. The work focused on the extent of social inequalities determining the quality of life of economic migrants in China. For more information about this work, please see our research project page.
Dudley Poston is Professor of Sociology, and the George T. and Gladys H. Abell Professor of Liberal Arts, at Texas A&M University. Professor Poston's research interests include demography, human ecology and the sociology of gender; with special attention to the populations of China, Taiwan, and Korea. He is the only non-Chinese person to ever be elected to be President of the North American Chinese Sociologists Association. Professor Poston has also made significant contributions to the emerging field of the Social Demography of Sexual Orientation.
Watch a video of the lecture on our YouTube Channel
Tuesday, May 10th 2016
Public panel debate "Implications of Brexit for EU migrants" (Public engagement events)
Abbey Centre, 34 Great Smith Street, Westminster
Tuesday, May 10th 2016
3pm
10 May 2016 - To inform opinion ahead of the forthcoming EU referendum, CPC hosted a free public panel debate to discuss the wider issues around our recent research on EU migrants living in the UK, migrants' attitudes to the forthcoming referendum, and the resulting social policy implications.
The panel consisted of the following members:
Mark Mardell (Chair), Presenter, BBC Radio 4 World this Weekend
Professor Jane Falkingham OBE, FAcSS, Director, Centre for Population Change, University of Southampton
Don Flynn, Director, Migrants' Rights Network
Professor Derek McGhee, Professor of Sociology and Head of Social Sciences, University of Southampton
Professor Traute Meyer, Professor of Social Policy, University of Southampton
Dr Athina Vlachantoni, Associate Professor in Gerontology, University of Southampton
The debate was held at the Abbey Centre, 34 Great Smith Street, Westminster and ran from 3pm until 4.30pm.
CPC Briefing Papers of the research covered are now available:
Who are the EU migrants in England and Wales?
Expense turns to investment: How the welfare state supports EU migrants' economic achievements
Should I stay or should I go? Strategies of EU citizens living in the UK in the context of the EU referendum
We also held a closed morning session on the same day. Our researchers presented their work in more depth, with the opportunity for discussion and networking afterwards. Further details can be found here.
These events form part of the Economic and Social Research Council's 'The UK in a changing Europe' initiative, which aims to provide an independent source of information and insight about UK-EU relations ahead of the EU referendum. The events are organised in collaboration with Population Europe, the network of Europe's leading demographic research centres.
Tuesday, May 10th 2016
Policy workshop - Implications of Brexit for EU migrants (Workshops)
Abbey Centre, 34 Great Smith Street, Westminster.
Tuesday, May 10th 2016
10am
10 May 2016 - CPC hosted a research dissemination event for policy-makers and practitioners to hear and discuss our latest research on EU migrants living in the UK, migrants' attitudes to the forthcoming referendum, and the resulting social policy implications.
Agenda
10:00 - 10:15 Registration and coffee
10:15 - 10:30 Welcome and Introduction
Jonathan Portes, National Institute of Economic and Social Research
10:30 - 11:15 'Who are the EU migrants? A demographic profile of individuals born in the EU living in England & Wales'
Professor Jane Falkingham OBE, FAcSS and Professor Maria Evandrou, University of Southampton with discussant Professor Helga de Valk, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute. This presentation links to our Briefing Paper 33.
11:15 - 12:00 'Should I stay or should I go? Strategies of EU citizens living in the UK in the context of the EU referendum'
Professor Derek McGhee, University of Southampton with discussant Professor Anne White, UCL. This presentation links to our Briefing Paper 35
12:00 - 12:45 'Expense turns to investment: How the welfare state supports EU migrants' economic achievements'
Professor Paul Bridgen and Professor Traute Meyer, University of Southampton with discussant Dr Ann Morissens, University College Leuven (UCLL). This presentation links to our Briefing Paper 34
12:45 - 13:00 Closing remarks
Adrian Favell, University of Leeds.
13:00 Networking lunch
The event was held at the Abbey Centre, 34 Great Smith Street, Westminster.
In addition to this closed morning session, we also hosted a public panel debate on the same day, where around 100 members of the public were invited to discuss these pressing issues with the following panel members:
Mark Mardell (Chair), Presenter, BBC Radio 4 World this Weekend
Professor Jane Falkingham OBE, FAcSS, Director, Centre for Population Change, University of Southampton
Don Flynn, Director, Migrants' Rights Network
Professor Derek McGhee, Professor of Sociology and Head of Social Sciences, University of Southampton
Professor Traute Meyer, Professor of Social Policy, University of Southampton
Dr Athina Vlachantoni, Associate Professor in Gerontology, University of Southampton
Further details are available here.
These events form part of the Economic and Social Research Council's 'The UK in a changing Europe' initiative, which aims to provide an independent source of information and insight about UK-EU relations ahead of the EU referendum. The events are organised in collaboration with Population Europe, the network of Europe's leading demographic research centres.
Monday, May 9th 2016
BIG QUALIDATA: Tackling Analysis of Very Large Volumes of Qualitative Data in Social Science Research (Workshops)
Lynn Jamieson
Chrystal MacMillan Building, Edinburgh
Monday, May 9th 2016
Lynn Jamieson chaired at the workshop "BIG QUALIDATA: Tackling Analysis of Very Large Volumes of Qualitative Data in Social Science Research", hosted by the Centre for Research on Families and Relationships.
Thursday, May 5th 2016
How paradoxical is the gender-and-health-paradox? (Seminars and lectures)
Marc Luy, Vienna Institute of Demography
University of Southampton, Building 58, room 1003 (L/R B)
Thursday, May 5th 2016
3pm
From the 1960s to the 1980s a common wisdom about differences between males and females in health and mortality emerged which was summarized by the well-known phrase "women get sicker, but men die quicker". Recently this wisdom has been increasingly questioned. Nevertheless, the general idea of a paradoxical relationship between health and mortality among women and men persists until today. The presented research aims at advancing the understanding of the paradox by demonstrating that the reverse relationship between sex on the one side and health and mortality on the other is not as paradoxical as it seems. Two factors are mainly responsible for causing this intuitive contradiction. First, the overall reversal in sex morbidity and sex mortality differentials occurs because several conditions that figure importantly in morbidity are not very important in mortality, and vice versa. Second, longevity is directly related to the absolute number of life years in ill health. Thus, women suffer from worse health than men do not in spite of living longer, but because they live longer. The second aspect has not been connected with the gender-and-health-paradox so far and combines this phenomenon with the ongoing "compression versus expansion of morbidity" debate.
Thursday, April 28th 2016
Selective migration and changing health/deprivation relationships (Seminars and lectures)
Paul Norman, University of Leeds
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, April 28th 2016
1pm
The international literature often finds a 'healthy migrant effect' but for migration within countries there are propositions that people moving between areas as part of their everyday lives can influence health inequalities between areas. This talk will explore the inter-relationships between health, deprivation and subnational migration to show whether health-deprivation relationships are affected. This will include ethnic and age dimensions. Case studies for England and Wales and for New Zealand will be illustrated.
Thursday, April 21st 2016
Cohabitation and Marriage in the Americas: Geo-historical Legacies and New Trends (Seminars and lectures)
Albert Esteve, Demographic Studies Center (CED), Spain
University of Southampton, 58/1023
Thursday, April 21st 2016
3pm
In this presentation, I document the very considerable rise in unmarried cohabitation in the Americas since the 1970s. I trace the social and geographic profiles of unmarried cohabitation to unveil the rich social and spatial heterogeneity in cohabitation. I show that the effects of social stratification, religion and ethnicity are continuing to be of major importance and that historical pattern of disadvantage is still in evidence, virtually everywhere in the Americas. This not only holds at the individual level but at the contextual level as well. In all countries for which contextual analyses could be performed with a finer spatial resolution, it was found that the contextual effects were highly significant and, even more importantly, entirely robust for controls for individual characteristics, which remind us that individuals have histories, but regions have much longer histories. Nevertheless, an entirely new wave of change started rolling over the pre-existing patterns from the 1970s onward. I will discuss the convergence of these trends to the Second Demographic Transition.
Monday, April 18th 2016
Scottish Affairs Select Committee evidence sessions in Edinburgh on 'the demography of Scotland and the implications for devolution' (Other)
Dynamic Earth, Edinburgh
Monday, April 18th 2016
David Bell was on the panel for the first meeting. The first meeting (11-12am) will be an oral evidence session, and the Committee will examine witnesses from the Royal Society of Edinburgh and Population Matters Scotland. The Committee will explore demographic forecasts and the implication for public policy, should wider demographic statistics be a factor in determining the funding settlement across the UK, and what impact the demographic trends are forecast to have on Scotland's services and economy.
The second session of the day (1-2pm) will involve a discussion with witnesses including representatives from the Scottish Pensioners Forum, Citizens Advice Scotland, and Age Scotland.
Friday, April 15th 2016
Child Poverty and Social Mobility: Lessons for Research and Policy (Conferences)
University of Southampton
Friday, April 15th 2016
What are the implications of increasing family diversity on children's life chances? How is family change influencing social inequality? A one day conference organised by CPC's Professor Ann Berrington and Dr Susan Harkness (University of Bath) explores the issues.
The conference brings together academics and decision makers to help improve our understanding of both the causes and consequences of declining social mobility and child poverty in Britain. Speakers will assess the influence that family change has on these trends and consider how best policy makers might now respond.
Wednesday, April 6th 2016
JPI Workshop on Migration (Workshops)
Berlin
Wednesday, April 6th 2016
Jackie Wahba was an invited expert at this event: The purpose of the expert workshop is therefore to explore what is, and is not, known about migration trends and their likely implications on the shape of the European population in the medium to long term.
We are inviting each interested country to nominate two participants: one a scientist familiar with research on migration and demography, and another from the policy community (perhaps from a government department or a relevant policy institute). In this way, the JPI MYBL hopes to be able to establish what questions policymakers need answers to, the extent to which existing knowledge already answers them, what gaps in knowledge exist, and how they might be filled.
In the light of this discussion, the JPI MYBL will consider what steps are most appropriate. In addition to a possible Fast Track, this might include scoping studies, workshops or seminars, or a transnational joint call for research proposals.
Tuesday, April 5th 2016
EU Referendum risk and uncertainty - Edinburgh (Other)
The Edinburgh International Conference Centre
Tuesday, April 5th 2016
Question-Time style debate with renowned speakers including CPC's David Bell
Tuesday, April 5th 2016
Tradition versus development - what matters most for demographic behaviour? The case of fertility, marriage and sex imbalances at birth in Albania. (Seminars and lectures)
Arjan Gjonca, London School of Economics
University of Southampton, Building 2, Room 5033
Tuesday, April 5th 2016
1pm
Demographers spent a lot of time in trying to answer questions on the deterministic pattern of different demographic outcomes, such as fertility, marriage and cohabitation pattern, child and maternal mortality and many more. One important question, which has been discussed for a long period of time, is what matters most for demographic outcome, values and norms of the society or ideas and development in determining our demographic behaviour, or both. This work which derives from a number of papers addresses this question in Albanian population behaviour with regards to fertility and marriage pattern as well as to sex imbalances at birth. The paper draws from analyses from different datasets, census of 2001 and 2011 as well as a number of surveys such as MICS 2005 and DHS 2009. The results show that development through different pathways (education, social policies etc.) has brought the level of fertility down to one of the lowest in Europe by 2015, 1.5 children per woman, while norms and values have kept the marriage pattern almost unchanged with almost no childbearing outside marriage and most of the Albanian females entering marriage by age of 28 (98% of them). This interplay between values/norms and ideas plays again a significant role to people's preference of boys which is reflected in an imbalanced sex ratio at birth in Albania (113/100 by 2011), similar to those seen in Asia and South Asia. In here again we discuss how come patriarchy and the family norms that come with it are more powerful than development (through education) in predicting these sex imbalances at birth.
Associated Downloads
/docs/old/Tradition_versus_Development_Arjan_Gjonca_Seminar_April_2016.pptx
Thursday, March 31st 2016 - Saturday, April 2nd 2016
PAA Annual Meeting 2016 (Conferences)
Washington, D.C.
Thursday, March 31st 2016
Thursday, March 31st 2016
Exhibition stand at event
Wednesday, March 23rd 2016
Demographic analysis and local planning - with the methodology of new NRS sub-Council Area projections as a case study (Seminars and lectures)
Ludi Simpson, University of Manchester
The Dome, New Register House, Princes Street, Edinburgh
Wednesday, March 23rd 2016
1.40pm
All planning is about the future and is helped by demographic projections of those aspects of population that are not under the planner's control. Population studies supply answers with a measurable amount of uncertainty, advising the likely demand for services, housing and jobs. In turn, local planners ask demographers for the likely impact on population of plans they make to release housing land or attract employment. The ways in which these functions are supported by demographic software will be reviewed.
Most of this work is carried out for specific development sites, or for strategic local plans focusing on relatively large local areas. NRS is planning to publish population projections for smaller areas throughout Scotland in March, such as the multi-member electoral wards. The strategy adopted and problems encountered, and some solutions, will be presented along with a review of priorities for applied demographic research for localities. Ludi was the academic advisor to the NRS project.
Wednesday, March 23rd 2016
Presentation of the publications of sub-council area projections (Seminars and lectures)
NRS
The Dome, New Register House, Princes Street, Edinburgh
Wednesday, March 23rd 2016
1pm
National Records of Scotland have produced for the first time 2012-based population projections for small areas within councils (sub-council area projections). This one-off project explores the feasibility of producing small area projections to a consistent methodology for 301 areas within Scotland.
Tuesday, March 22nd 2016
Migration Crisis in Europe (Workshops)
Royal Geographical Society
Tuesday, March 22nd 2016
Event aimed at an audience of policy-makers, business leaders, academics, practitioners and NGO representatives with a professional interest in the topic. Co-organised by CPC member Allan Findlay
Thursday, February 25th 2016
The Nurses' Lives Research Programme: enabling practice through new insights to population health using routine data about nurses (Seminars and lectures)
Iain Atherton and Richard Kyle, Edinburgh Napier University
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, February 25th 2016
1pm
Health care professionals have an increasingly important role at a population level. This role requires teaching that encourages and facilitates students to link their individual practice to population health. Making teaching accessible is challenging given what might seem quite abstract ideas in comparison to the immediacy of other interventions. The Nurses' Lives Research Programme at Edinburgh Napier University is endeavouring to make teaching on population health more accessible through research on nurses themselves. Findings are providing new insights into the social determinants of health. These provide a basis for practitioners to reflect on issues that relate not only to their patients, but also to themselves, potentially shattering patient-public divides, and increasing awareness of the complexities of nursing interventions. Two exemplar studies will be presented. One estimating the prevalence of overweight and obese nurses in Scotland, and another analysing evidence for a Glasgow Effect amongst nurses in Scotland. Implications of findings for teaching related to population health and for health care professionals are considered.
Tuesday, February 16th 2016
Does prenatal sex bias substitute postnatal bias against girls? Decomposing the fertility and mortality components of changing child sex ratios across the world (Seminars and lectures)
Ridhi Kashyap, MPDIR and University of Oxford
University of Southampton, Building 2, Room 1085
Tuesday, February 16th 2016
3pm
The demographic manifestations of son preference across different contexts in South and East Asia and the Caucasus as postnatal excess female infant and child mortality, and in recent decades as prenatal sex selection in the form of sex-selective abortion, are widely documented in the demographic literature. By allowing parents better control of the size and sex composition of their desired families, has the rise and spread of prenatal sex selection substituted postnatal bias in mortality against girls? This paper addresses this question by analysing the dynamics of child sex ratios between 1980 and 2015 using United Nations country-level lifetable data in a comparative perspective. The analysis proceeds in two steps. First, I develop and apply a lifetable decomposition approach to distinguish between a 'fertility' component attributable to prenatal sex selection and 'mortality' components attributable to sex-differentials in postnatal survival to assess when and where the two components overlap and where they have substituted one another as child sex ratios have changed. Second, to assess whether sex differentials in survivorship indicate excess female infant and child mortality, I compare life-table female mortality estimates to model-generated, expected female mortality estimates at a given level of male mortality. Substitution was most clearly evident in South Korea, where excess female mortality in infancy reduced and subsequently disappeared with the onset of prenatal sex selection. In other contexts, where child sex ratios witnessed significant change, evidence for substitution was mixed. Most notably, China and India, did not show clear evidence of substitution between prenatal and postnatal sex bias between 1990-95 and 2000-05, with slight reductions in excess female child mortality evident in India between 2000-05 and 2010-15. In the Caucasus countries, sex biases in mortality appeared alongside prenatal sex selection in the 1990s, but showed a reduction in the period between 2000-05 and 2010-15 .
Wednesday, February 3rd 2016
Challenges and Opportunities for a Global Index on Active Aging (Seminars and lectures)
Columbia Aging Center
Wednesday, February 3rd 2016
Seminar presented by Asghar Zaidi presenting the key findings of the Active Ageing Index
Thursday, January 28th 2016
British demography, c1850-c2000: how and why was Scotland different? (Seminars and lectures)
Michael Anderson, University of Edinburgh
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, January 28th 2016
1pm
This paper presents some key findings from my nearly completed book-length work, provisionally entitled Scotland's Population Histories in a British context: contrasts and comparisons, from the mid-nineteenth to the early twenty-first centuries.
Much of the book describes and analyses the huge variations in demographic experience between different areas of Scotland, but in this paper I focus on the often dramatic, temporally persistent, and spatially pervasive contrasts between Scotland and England not only in rates of overall population change but also in all three of its underlying components: fertility, mortality, and net migration.
The second half of the paper seeks explanations for these persistent and pervasive differences, and it concludes by asking: to what extent can they only in great part be accounted for by genuinely 'Scottish-level' effects?
Monday, January 25th 2016 - Tuesday, January 26th 2016
Perspectives on Global Development 2016: Second expert meeting (Other)
OECD Conference Centre, Paris
Monday, January 25th 2016
Monday, January 25th 2016
Jackie Wahba was a discussant for the "Return migration: what role for origin countries' public policies?" session at this meeting.
Thursday, January 21st 2016
Re-evaluating the link between marriage and mental well-being: how do early life conditions attenuate differences between cohabitation and marriage? (Seminars and lectures)
Marta Styrc, University of Southampton
University of Southampton, 58/1067
Thursday, January 21st 2016
2pm
The decline in marriage and increase in cohabitation raises questions about whether marriage still provides benefits to well-being. Here we use the British Cohort Study 1970 (N=7203), a prospective survey following respondents to age 42, to examine whether partnerships in general, and marriage in particular, provide benefits to mental well-being in mid-life. We use propensity score matching to investigate whether childhood characteristics are a sufficient source of selection to eliminate differences in well-being between different partnership types. We find that matching on childhood characteristics does not eliminate advantages to living with a partner. However, the type of partnership does not matter; among those less likely to marry, marriage provides no benefits to well-being beyond cohabitation. The sources of childhood selection seem to differ by gender: matching on educational plans and scores tends to eliminate differences for women, while adolescent mental well-being eliminates many differences between cohabitation and marriage for men.
Thursday, December 10th 2015
Grouped functional time series forecasting: An application to age-specific mortality rates (Seminars and lectures)
Han Lin Shang, Australian National University
University of Southampton, Room 1003, Building 58
Thursday, December 10th 2015
3pm
Age-specific mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state and ethnic group. Forecasting age-specific mortality rates at national and sub-national levels plays an important role in making societal policies associated with national and sub-national levels. Independent forecasts at sub-national levels may not add up to the forecasts at national level. To address this issue, we consider the problem of reconciling age-specific mortality rate forecasts from the viewpoint of grouped time series forecasting methods (Hyndman et al., 2011, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis), and extend these methods to functional time series forecasting, where age is considered as a continuum. The grouped functional time series methods are used to produce point forecasts of mortality rates that are aggregated appropriately across different levels of a hierarchy. To address forecast uncertainty, we also consider the reconciliation of interval forecasts through a maximum entropy bootstrap method which preserves the autocorrelation exhibited in the original functional time series. Using the regional age-specific mortality rates in Japan obtained from the Japanese Mortality Database, we investigate the one-step-ahead to 20-step-ahead point and interval forecast accuracies between the grouped functional time series and independent functional time series forecasting methods. The proposed methods are not only shown to be useful for reconciling forecasts of age-specific mortality rates at national and sub-national levels, but they also enjoy improved forecast accuracy. The improved forecast accuracy of mortality rates would be beneficial for government policy decision regarding the allocation of current and future resources, and would be of great interest to the insurance and pension industries.
Tuesday, December 8th 2015
How (not) to predict migration (Other)
Westminster,
Tuesday, December 8th 2015
Policy briefing presented by Jakub Bijak.
Wednesday, December 2nd 2015
RSS and ONS joint meeting on ONS population proejctions (Other)
RSS, London
Wednesday, December 2nd 2015
An open meeting was held at the Royal Statistical Society for discussion and comments on the latest projections and to provide opportunities for feedback from users. Following a presentation of the latest projections-and methods by Paul Vickers, Head of Population Statistics Outputs ONS; CPC Director Professor Jane Falkingham discussed the findings.
Tuesday, December 1st 2015
ESRC 50th Anniversary Debate (Other)
Royal Society, London
Tuesday, December 1st 2015
The event will be a topical debate in which panellists answer questions from an informed audience on current issues such as migration, economy, Europe, devolution, cities, education, population change/ageing
Thursday, November 26th 2015
Census 2011 - how NRS are making the most of the data. Illustrations from reports on households and migration (Seminars and lectures)
Sandy Taylor, Victoria Avila and Moira Weir, National Records of Scotland
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, November 26th 2015
1pm
The data from Scotland's Census 2011 provides a rich and detailed source of information for understanding Scotland and its population. Every year census data are used to inform key decisions made by government bodies, charities, and businesses. Population estimates, area profiles, and detailed data mapping all use census data to help inform the allocation of billions of pounds of funding and investment. Both central government and local authorities also rely on census data to help them plan key services such as healthcare, housing, schooling, and transport.
This brown bag seminar gives some insight into how the data generated by Scotland's Census 2011 has been used. The session will include talks on:
* Overview of Scotland's Census 2011 results.
* Statistical profile of migrants from outside the European Economic Area (EEA) using data from Scotland's Census 2011.
* Household composition for specific groups of people in Scotland.
Thursday, November 12th 2015
Maternal age and under-five mortality in developing countries: secular trends in development outweigh the risks associated with reproductive ageing (Seminars and lectures)
Kieron Barclay, London School of Economics
University of Southampton, Building 58, Room 1003
Thursday, November 12th 2015
3pm
Using data on over 7 million births from 77 developing countries from 228 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted over the past 30 years, we find that secular declines in under-five mortality completely outweigh the risks associated with reproductive ageing. Using fully adjusted sibling-comparison models that minimize residual confounding, we find that the net effect of maternal age at the time of birth on under-five mortality is U-shaped, with the offspring of the youngest and oldest mothers at the greater risk of mortality. However, these estimates ignore secular trends in social and economic development. Development has led to sharp declines in the rates of under-five mortality. From the perspective of any individual mother, delayed childbearing means giving birth in a later year when under-five mortality rates are lower. We find that secular declines in under-five mortality completely outweigh the risks associated with reproductive ageing, and even mothers childbearing at age 40 or older have a much lower risk of losing their child than they did giving birth in their twenties.
Associated Downloads
Thursday, October 29th 2015
Unpaid care for older people: a study of carers' time use (Seminars and lectures)
Alison Bowes and Alison Dawson, University of Stirling
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, October 29th 2015
1pm
This study highlights fundamental changes in unpaid care for older people. These include changes in supply of care; family structures; competing demands on carers; changing tasks and attitudes; educational changes; migration patterns; work; and housing wealth. The study aims, in this dynamic context, to develop better understanding of what unpaid carers are doing, and how their work is changing. Existing research tends not to provide systematic exploration of and effective tools for examining carers' tasks, how they use their time and how this could be captured in large scale survey research. Large surveys tend to use structured questions about caring, which contain many assumptions about carers, and may not therefore be collecting data which can usefully inform contemporary policy.
The project is developing a time use diary methodology which aims to collect extensive, detailed data about the range and frequency of unpaid care tasks, which will be used to develop a fuller understanding, and ultimately to inform more effective questioning in large scale surveys.
The paper reports on the first phase of the study, involving analysis of 60 interviews conducted with people who 'support and care for' older people. This phase aimed to develop a fresh, qualitative understanding of unpaid carers' time use, with an emphasis on their own perspectives on what they count as 'support and care' for older people; what tasks take up more or less time; and how they manage their time. This qualitative analysis informs the design of the time use data collection phase of the study.
Thursday, October 15th 2015
How diverse can diversity measurement be? Theoretical considerations and some applications (Seminars and lectures)
Jacques Poot, National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis, University of Waikato
University of Southampton, Room 1039 (L/T K), Building 2
Thursday, October 15th 2015
3pm
Cultural diversity is a complex and multi-faceted concept. Commonly used quantitative measures of the spatial distribution of culturally-defined groups - such as segregation, isolation or concentration indexes - have been designed to capture just one feature of this distribution. The strengths and weaknesses of such measures under varying demographic, geographic and behavioural conditions can only be comprehensively assessed empirically. This has been rarely done in the case of multigroup cultural diversity. In this presentation I provide evidence on the empirical properties of various spatial measures of cultural diversity by means of Monte Carlo replications of agent-based modelling (MC-ABM) simulations under widely varying assumptions. Schelling's classical segregation model is used as the theoretical engine to generate patterns of spatial clustering. The data inputs include the initial population, the assumed geography, the number and shares of various cultural groups, and their preferences with respect to co-location. Our MC-ABM data generating process produces output maps that enable us to assess the sensitivity of the various spatial measures of cultural diversity to parameter assumptions by means of response surface analysis. We find that, as our simulated city becomes more diverse, stable residential location equilibria require the preference for co-location with one's own group to be not much more than the group share of the smallest demographic minority. When equilibria exist, the values of the various spatial diversity measures are strongly dependent on the composition of the population across cultural groups, the assumed preferences and the assumed geography. Index values are generally non-decreasing in increasing preference for within-group co-location. More diverse populations yield - for given preferences and geography - a greater degree of spatial clustering. The sensitivity of spatial diversity measures to underlying conditions suggests that meaningful analysis of the impact of segregation requires spatial panel data modelling.
Wednesday, October 14th 2015
Is welfare the magnet that draws the migrants? Lessons from Australasia (Seminars and lectures)
University of Southampton
Wednesday, October 14th 2015
Evening lecture by Jacques Poot from the University of Waikato as part of the NZ-UK Foundation Visiting Professorship lecture programme 2015, co-organised by CPC.
Thursday, October 8th 2015
Branch of Occupation and Divorce Risks in Denmark (Seminars and lectures)
Gunnar Andersson, Stockholm University
University of Southampton, Room 1129, Building 06 (Nuffield Theatre)
Thursday, October 8th 2015
4pm
The current study covers the divorce risks of women and men in Denmark during 1981-2002. It is based on register data on all women and men born in 1945 and later that married in Denmark during 1981-2002. We control for standard socio-demographic covariates of divorce: age at and duration of marriage, educational attainment, metropolitan residence, and number of children. Our main independent variable is branch of occupation, which is sub-divided into 47 different categories. In general, divorce risks do not differ tremendously across branches but a few of them stand out: women and men on farms and in library or pharmacy businesses have the lowest divorce risks; the highest risks are found among women and men in hotel and restaurants and in manpower businesses. A more in-depth analysis reveals how divorce risks are related to the sex composition of employees in each sector and the degree to which the sector comprises part-time employment.
Thursday, September 24th 2015
Trajectories in the prevalence of self-reported illness around retirement (Seminars and lectures)
Alan Marshall, University of St Andrews
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, September 24th 2015
1pm
In this presentation I will use wave 1 (2002) to wave 6 (2012) of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) to assess whether the increase in the prevalence of self-reported limiting long term illness with age differs before and after retirement and whether this varies according to socio-economic characteristics and the conditions of work in the final years of employment. The longitudinal analysis uses a sub-sample of ELSA comprising those who retired between wave 2 (2004) and wave 6 (2012) and a repeated measures logistic regression to model the trajectory in the log odds of illness before and after retirement. The results show a slower increase in self-reported illness after than before retirement that was most strongly observed for those in the least favourable circumstances prior to retirement (lower social class, depressed prior to retirement and single). A similar retirement effect was observed for those in physically demanding occupations. I will use my findings to evaluate previous research that has shown strong spatial patterns in self-reported illness rates around retirement using census data.
Sunday, August 16th 2015
Migration (Other)
Edinburgh
Sunday, August 16th 2015
A live debate between Lilja Gretarsdottir, David McCollum and Sue Cameron as part of the Festival of Politics 2015.
Tuesday, July 21st 2015
Diverse Britain: BSPS-British Academy Policy Forum (Other)
British Academy, London
Tuesday, July 21st 2015
Policy forum co-organised with the BSPS. The format of the forums is as follows: 2-3 short (20 minute) presentations by academics followed by a response from 1-2 policy makers and practitioners and then an open discussion. Participation is by invitation only, with 10-15 academics and 10-15 policy makers and practitioners.
Wednesday, July 15th 2015
Ageing Britain: BSPS-British Academy Policy Forum (Other)
British Academy, London
Wednesday, July 15th 2015
Policy forum co-organised with the BSPS. The format of the forums is as follows: 2-3 short (20 minute) presentations by academics followed by a response from 1-2 policy makers and practitioners and then an open discussion. Participation is by invitation only, with 10-15 academics and 10-15 policy makers and practitioners.
Tuesday, July 14th 2015
Changing Families and Households: BSPS-British Academy Policy Forum (Other)
British Academy, London
Tuesday, July 14th 2015
Policy forum co-organised with the BSPS. The format of the forums is as follows: 2-3 short (20 minute) presentations by academics followed by a response from 1-2 policy makers and practitioners and then an open discussion. Participation is by invitation only, with 10-15 academics and 10-15 policy makers and practitioners.
Saturday, July 11th 2015
University of Southampton Social Sciences 50th Anniversary Celebration (Other)
University of Southampton
Saturday, July 11th 2015
The University of Southampton's Social Sciences Academic Unit warmly invites alumni to a reunion celebrating the 50th Anniversary of the creation of Social Sciences. Jane Falkingham will be hosting the event and CPC will be hosting an exhibition stand at the event.
Wednesday, July 8th 2015
'New' Data for Policy: exploiting Big Data; linked data and other sources: BSPS-British Academy Policy Forum (Other)
British Academy, London
Wednesday, July 8th 2015
Policy forum co-organised with the BSPS. The format of the forums is as follows: 2-3 short (20 minute) presentations by academics followed by a response from 1-2 policy makers and practitioners and then an open discussion. Participation is by invitation only, with 10-15 academics and 10-15 policy makers and practitioners.
Monday, July 6th 2015 - Wednesday, July 8th 2015
Exhibition stand at the PopFest conference (Conferences)
Plymouth University
Monday, July 6th 2015
Monday, July 6th 2015
CPC stand showcasing our research held at the PopFest conference held at Plymouth University.
Wednesday, July 1st 2015 - Friday, July 3rd 2015
Exhibition stand at the BSG conference (Conferences)
Newcastle
Wednesday, July 1st 2015
Wednesday, July 1st 2015
CPC stand showcasing our research held at the BSG conference held at Newcastle.
Monday, June 29th 2015 - Friday, July 10th 2015
Master class on law; history; politics and society in the context of mass atrocities (Seminars and lectures)
Inter-University Centre (IUC), Dubrovnik, Croatia
Monday, June 29th 2015
Monday, June 29th 2015
Master class dealing with the legal, political, historical aspects of the genocide. CPC academic Jakub Bijak is a lecturer for this course.
Friday, June 26th 2015 - Wednesday, November 30th -0001
University of Southampton research centres joint exhibition stand at the ISI 2015 conference (Conferences)
Rio de Janero
Friday, June 26th 2015
Friday, June 26th 2015
CPC along with other social sciences research centres at the University of Southampton will be holding an exhibition stand at this conference
Tuesday, June 16th 2015 - Wednesday, June 17th 2015
Workshop on UK Population Change and Housing across the Lifecourse (Workshops)
University of St Andrews
Tuesday, June 16th 2015
Tuesday, June 16th 2015
Event organised by CPC Scotland. The aim of the workshop is to promote dialogue between those with various interests in population change and housing across the life course. Despite the importance of understanding the interrelations between demographic change and the housing system, researchers specialising in one or the other too rarely speak to each other. The workshop will bring together a group of around 24 population researchers, housing researchers and practitioners/policy makers in a focussed discussion of the latest evidence and thinking relating to population change and housing in the UK.
Wednesday, June 10th 2015
Women's life courses and later life wellbeing in Europe (Seminars and lectures)
Katja Mohring, University of Bremen
University of Southampton 58/1039
Wednesday, June 10th 2015
3pm
A joint CPC, CRA and CLC seminar: Women's life courses have undergone major changes from the post-war decades until today. They have been and are still characterised by the interplay and tension between employment and family. However, the extent to which the welfare state supports the balancing of both spheres and the recognition of typical female careers in its social security institutions, such as the pension system, varies between countries. Accordingly, previous research has demonstrated large cross-national variation in females' labour market participation as well as in their wellbeing in later life. This makes women's life courses an interesting source to study the manifold and complex linkages between welfare state, social change, family context, and individual characteristics in determining the relationship of mid-life developments and later life outcomes. In my talk I will present results from different studies on women's life courses and later life wellbeing in Europe. I will firstly give an overview of gender differences in career patterns in European welfare states. Then I will turn to the early career phase of young women (age 18-29 years). Here, I will present results from a study examining the 'work vs. family orientation' in young women's career pathways focussing on family background and the welfare state as central determinants. Next, I will present results on the relationship of mid-life developments (employment and family biography) on later life objective and subjective wellbeing. I will close the talk with a short outlook on a planned project on women's late careers. The theoretical framework underlying all studies combines factors related to the individual, the family, and the welfare state in a multilevel perspective on the relationship of women's life courses and later life wellbeing in European societies. All studies make use of data on life histories of women born between 1920 and 1959 in 14 European countries from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, wave 3 (SHARELIFE). The applied methods include sequence analysis and multilevel regression.
Monday, June 1st 2015 - Friday, June 5th 2015
Workshop: Introduction to Agent-Based Computational Modelling in Population Studies (Workshops)
Leuven, Belgium
Monday, June 1st 2015
Monday, June 1st 2015
Workshop for PhD students being held in Leuven. CPC member Jakub Bijak was one of the lecturers for the workshop.
Thursday, May 28th 2015
Living Alone (Seminars and lectures)
Lynn Jamieson, University of Edinburgh
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, May 28th 2015
1pm
Does interview data help us understand the demographic trend? Dramatic claims have been made about the significance of the near global trend of increasing numbers of people living alone across all ages of adult life. In the book Living Alone Jamieson and Simpson weigh the evidence drawing on a wide research literature, as well as their own study of men and women living alone in urban and rural Scotland at ages conventionally associated with partnering and parenting. Many people living alone do not fit the stereotypes: without partners or caring responsibilities or cut adrift from local connections - some have partners living apart, some are hands-on parents or carers and most have rich connections with friends and family, locally and across distance. In the UK, only a small minority proportion, higher among men than women, are troubled and lonely, although a larger proportion, more urban than rural, may have little active engagement with others in their neighbourhood of residence. Do their accounts of themselves fit with the expectations of demographic theory such as second demographic transition?
Thursday, May 28th 2015
Micro-Level Vulnerability Assessment of Estuarine Islands: A Case Study from Indian Sundarban (Seminars and lectures)
Rituparna Hajra, School of Oceanographic Studies, Jadavpur University
University of Southampton, Building 2, Room 1039
Thursday, May 28th 2015
3pm
Vulnerability is the probable exposure to the damaging effects of any natural, social and policy level changes along with their negative impacts for a community or system. The estuarine islands within Indian Sundarban are becoming more vulnerable due to their fragile ecosystem with increasing population pressure. Assessment of island vulnerability is usually more focused towards the climate change impacts, rather than taking into account all other drivers with due weightage.
Three estuarine islands namely Sagar, Ghoramara and Mousani at the western part of Indian Sundarban Delta (ISD) have been chosen for this gap analysis through micro-level vulnerability assessment considering potential influencing drivers. The household survey data have been collected from twenty seven (27) sampled 'Mouza' (lowest administrative boundary) through cluster random sampling. Mouza level analysis has been carried out following the 'Composite Vulnerability Index' (CVI) considering physical and social variables like erosion, housing condition, electrification, population density, adult education, sanitation and economic condition as the percentage of people 'Below Poverty Line' (BPL). Result suggests that all these mouzas are within the rank of 'High to Moderate' vulnerability, and sensitive to both the socio economic and environmental changes. The 'hot spot' mouzas identified are Sapkhali, Ghoramara, Bankimnagar, Shibpur and Baliara. This study is an approach towards the identification of thrust areas for policy adaptation, which is crucial to minimize the existing vulnerable conditions in this region.
Associated Downloads
Thursday, May 14th 2015
Inequality, Identity and Integration among African-Descent Youth in France (Seminars and lectures)
Loretta Bass, University of Oklahoma
University of Southampton 02/1083
Thursday, May 14th 2015
3pm
The incorporation of Sub-Saharan African immigrant families is a key issue for France and Europe at large. This research uses data gathered from first- and second-generation immigrant youth and their mothers to understand the integration process of African-descent youth in France, where one in seven children comes from a family with immigrant parents. I examine identity and incorporation by addressing the following question: Where do these young people of immigrant descent see themselves fitting in French society? I use respondents' voices to identify cultural and structural factors that define their integration experience, and then present findings as they fall within three areas: 1) identity formation, 2) the importance of race and immigrant statuses, and 3) nuances of the outsider status. I also use segmented assimilation and cultural-materialist frameworks to explain two cases: Alita, a young, first-generation woman's integration, and the riots in recent years of immigrant youth in France's suburbs.
Thursday, April 23rd 2015
Redefining ageing: The role of grandparenting (Seminars and lectures)
Valeria Bordone, Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, VID/OAW, WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
University of Southampton, 02/1039 (L/T K)
Thursday, April 23rd 2015
3pm
A joint CPC/CRA seminar: Individual and population ageing are usually linked to chronological age. The United Nations conventionally set the threshold for "being old" at the age of 60 or 65, but recent studies have shown that the idea of a static measure of age is changing and dimensions of age other than chronological age are relevant. Under the awareness of ageing umbrella, the concept of felt or subjective age accounts for how old a person feels to be. How old persons feel is grounded in the demographic realities around them. Social roles and age-related social categorizations that exist in society can also serve as signals for a person's age evaluation. The role of grandparent is one of the most salient roles in later life and it is considered as an age reminder. In this study we explore the association between several grandparent-related outcomes and felt age: Do grandchildren make you feel older?
Monday, April 20th 2015
Reproductive Biographies from the Longitudinal Database of the Population of Andalusia (LDBPA) (Seminars and lectures)
Diego Ramiro-Farinas, Spanish National Research Council, Juan del Ojo Mesa and Francisco Viciana Fernandez, Institute of Statistics and Cartography of Andalusia
Seminar Room, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Monday, April 20th 2015
1pm
In this presentation we will discuss the relationship between change in social structures and reproductive behaviours using the Longitudinal Database of the Population of Andalusia (LDBPA). We argue that Spain, in relation to its surroundings, is a good example of a late and rapid demographic transition, which is roughly overlapped with the emergence of the new cycle of change which has been named by Ron Lesthaegue as the Second demographic transition. This overlap of the reproductive model, similar to what is taking place today in many newly developed countries, is particularly evident in Southern Spain: Andalusia. Despite being less economically developed, this region with 8 million inhabitants has experienced profound structural change with economic, educational and family changes in recent decades. The newly developed LDBPA allow us to analyse some of these changes by reconstructing individual trajectories of the Andalusian population since the late twentieth century.
Thursday, April 16th 2015
A Measure for Comparing the Mortality History of Cohorts: TCAL (Seminars and lectures)
Vladimir Canudas-Romo, Max-Planck Odense Center on Biodemography of Aging
University of Southampton, Building 58, Room 1009
Thursday, April 16th 2015
3pm
The commonly used period life expectancy comparisons between populations correspond to juxtapositions of current mortality levels. In order to construct actual life expectancies as experienced by cohorts one needs complete historical series of mortality, which are only found in a subset of developed countries. The Truncated Cross-sectional Average Length of life (TCAL) is a novel measure that captures historical information of all the cohorts present at a given moment and is not limited to countries with complete cohort mortality data. The value of TCAL depends on the rates used to complete the cohort series. However, differences between TCALs of two populations remain very similar irrespective of the data used to complete the cohort series. We illustrate this by comparing the mortality of the United States with Denmark, Japan, and other high-longevity countries using TCAL. Specific cohorts that account for most of the disparity in mortality between the populations are identified.
Friday, March 27th 2015
Long-term costs of health and care (Other)
Scotland
Friday, March 27th 2015
David Bell took part in this meeting with staff from Audit Scotland
Thursday, March 26th 2015
Residential mobility and the lifecourse: evidence of de-standardisation? (Seminars and lectures)
Glenna Nightingale and David McCollum, University of St Andrews
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, March 26th 2015
1pm
The lifecourse has long been recognised as an age graded sequence of socially defined roles and events, which can be associated with particular patterns of residential mobility. The traditional linear life stage model is increasingly dismissed as deterministic, with scholars contending that lifecourses are becoming ever more de-standardised. Whilst there has been much concern over the supposed precarious of contemporary working and family life, and thus the fluidity of mobility experiences, there is a surprising dearth of solid evidence to substantiate assumptions of de-standardised lifecourses. A longstanding challenge in this respect has been the scarcity of suitable data and methods of analysis. This research draws on an innovative methodological approach to try and shed light on the extent to which lifecourses and mobility patterns are indeed becoming de-standardised. The study adopts a randomization technique to quantify the evidence for de-standardization. This technique involves simulating populations and making comparisons to the observed data. Additional analyses carried out include logistic regression models to estimate the effect of key variables on selected mobility patterns. This approach can inform discussions about the extent of lifecourse de-standardisation, and the methodologies that can best assess it.
Friday, March 13th 2015
Discussion: "Gender equality: making a difference" (Other)
University of Southampton
Friday, March 13th 2015
Professor Jane Falkingham was a guest speaker for this discussion event which is part of the University's "International Women's Week"
Thursday, March 5th 2015
Living apart together relationships in Australia (Seminars and lectures)
Ann Evans, Australian National University
University of Southampton, 58/1023
Thursday, March 5th 2015
2pm
This presentation will present quantitative and qualitative results from an Australian project which aims to better understand Living-Apart-Together relationships. The quantitative aspect of the study uses HILDA, a nationally representative panel study, to identify and classify people in LAT relationships.
This qualitative aspect of this project is based on data collected through focus group interviews. Previous qualitative studies of LAT relationships have involved in-depth interviews of individuals or couples. Following Morgan (1997:12) focus groups were used in this study 'to produce data and insights that would be less accessible without the interaction found in a group'. This was the first time that all of the LAT group participants had been given an opportunity to discuss their experiences of being in a LAT relationship within a LAT-only focus group environment. Through the LAT focus groups discussions it was possible to investigate how participants responded to questions about LAT relationships and what issues they considered to be of most importance within a group environment, highlighting areas of shared versus individual experiences in LAT relationships. The results contain insights into the reasons for having a LAT relationship, the benefits and disadvantages of LAT relationships, as well as the gendered aspects of negotiating non-cohabiting partnerships. The findings highlight that there are some aspects which reflect different considerations for women and men in their experiences of LAT relationship. These include risk and fear of the consequences of relationship failure, including financial considerations; negotiation between LAT partners about the nature of the relationship; choice versus obligation in terms of caring in LAT compared to co-habiting relationship; and how the presence or absence of a child or children shapes LAT relationships.
Wednesday, March 4th 2015
Gender; Turning Points and Boomerangs: Returning Home in Young Adulthood in Great Britain (Seminars and lectures)
The Dome, New Register House, Edinburgh
Wednesday, March 4th 2015
Juliet Stone presented her seminar "Gender, Turning Points and Boomerangs: Returning Home in Young Adulthood in Great Britain" with an introductory discussion led by Allan Findlay and David McCollum titled "Changing Mobilities and the Fluid Lifecourse of Young Adults"
Thursday, February 26th 2015
Family background and young adults' housing tenure pathways in England and Wales, 1971-2011 (Seminars and lectures)
Rory Coulter, University of Cambridge
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, February 26th 2015
1.00pm
Declining rates of homeownership in young adulthood and young people's growing reliance on the private rental sector are fuelling debates about how tenure change is reshaping British society. Concerns have been voiced that inequalities between and within generations are increasing as access to owner-occupation becomes more difficult and more dependent on familial support. Although much is known about recent trends in young adults' housing circumstances, few studies have examined how young people's longer term tenure pathways are affected by their family background. Furthermore, very little is known about how these intergenerational effects have changed over time. Drawing on data from the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study of England and Wales, I present the first findings from a new project comparing the long-term housing tenure pathways of three cohorts of young people. After describing key trends I use logistic regression models to examine how different cohorts of young adults' tenure attainments are linked to the family type, social class and housing tenure of their parents. The results illustrate how patterns of social stratification and intergenerational social mobility are tied to the housing system.
Thursday, February 19th 2015 - Saturday, February 28th 2015
How to get to 100 - and enjoy it (Public engagement events)
W5, Glasgow
Thursday, February 19th 2015
Thursday, February 19th 2015
CPC organised exhibition tour with collaboration with Max Planck and Population Europe. The exhibition included a launch event and school groups were encouraged to attend.
Thursday, February 19th 2015
Trends in couples' work patterns after childbirth and implications for social inequality (Seminars and lectures)
Kelly Musick, Cornell University
University of Southampton 02/1035
Thursday, February 19th 2015
3pm
Wives' financial contributions have become a common component of the marriage bargain, yet wives continue to shoulder a disproportionate share of domestic responsibilities, particularly after a first child is born. This project uses newly available, short-term panels spanning recent decades to examine joint changes in men's and women's work and earnings following the transition to parenthood in the United States. It further considers the implications of these changes for aggregate trends in earnings inequality over time, addressing the broad implications of transformations in the meaning of marriage for social inequality.
Tuesday, February 17th 2015 - Wednesday, February 18th 2015
1st PhD Workshop on the Economics of Migration (Workshops)
University of Southampton
Tuesday, February 17th 2015
Tuesday, February 17th 2015
Workshop organised by PhD students from the Department of Economics at the University of Southampton and sponsored by the School of Social Sciences and the ESRC Centre for Population Change (co-organiser Dafni Papoutsaki)
Friday, February 13th 2015
Deconstructing Generation Rent: Young People's Housing Options and Future Welfare (Workshops)
University of Sheffield
Friday, February 13th 2015
Ann Berrington gave a paper highlighting the impact of housing policy on young adults' housing transitions in the UK and how this impact is gendered at a workshop sponsored by the Housing Studies Association: 'Economic precariousness and young adults' housing transitions in the UK'
Wednesday, February 11th 2015
Prudential roundtable dinner on the social; economic and geopolitical impact of ageing societies (Other)
Mosimann's, London
Wednesday, February 11th 2015
A roundtable dinner discussion hosted by Prudential on the social, economic and geopolitical impact of ageing societies. Limited to no more than fifteen high-level participants drawn from leading thinkers, strategists and practitioners, and held under the Chatham House Rule.
The roundtable considered the strategic challenges posed by population ageing, addressing questions such as:
• What are the risks and opportunities that may arise from demographically led shifts in the global economy and geopolitical order?
• How can societies maintain a decent standard of living for the old without imposing a crushing burden on the young?
• How can countries foster economic growth as workforces contract and rates of savings and investment decline?
The discussion covered global ageing and focussed in particular on East Asia, where demographic trends have been leaning strongly with economic growth but may soon be leaning against it.
Joined by Richard Jackson, President of the Global Aging Institute and one of the world's foremost authorities on ageing, who shared insights from his research, including several in-depth studies of the challenges posed by ageing across a range of Asian countries.
The dinner was part of a series of events covering different topics that will help to shape Prudential's thinking and inform our research programme over the next few years.
Friday, February 6th 2015
Cohabitation trends; policies and practices (Workshops)
Local Government Association, London
Friday, February 6th 2015
CPC organised workshop
Sunday, February 1st 2015
Using Twitter Data for Population Estimates (Tweet Pop) (Workshops)
University of Southampton
Sunday, February 1st 2015
Workshop organised by CPC member Jennifer Holland. The workshop involved participants from University of Southampton (Social Statistics and Demography, Web Sciences, Computer Sciences) and ONS
Thursday, January 29th 2015
Uncertain lives - Insights into the role of job precarioussness on family formation in Italy (Seminars and lectures)
Daniele Vignoli, University of Florence
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, January 29th 2015
1.30pm
The diffusion of temporary job contracts in modern European societies has raised concern that these jobs, even if they are deemed useful to combat unemployment, may also constitute a source of insecurity for young workers. Little is known about their possible social and demographic consequences, especially as regards family formation. We focus on this knowledge-gap by examining how job precariousness affects union formation practices in Italy. We study both genders and we combine the empirical evidence from both qualitative and quantitative research. The qualitative evidence suggest to advance the hypothesis that cohabitation can be linked to the growing labor market uncertainty while marriage to stability. By means of a subsequent quantitative analysis, we provide support to this hypothesis in the general population.
Friday, January 16th 2015
Ageing special on BBC Breakfast (Public engagement events)
The Lowry, Manchester
Friday, January 16th 2015
The CPC exhibition "How to live to 100 and enjoy it" was featured as part of a special BBC Breakfast programme between 6am and 9.15am. Facts from the exhibition, footage of the exhibition and interviews with Jane Falkingham were featured on the programme.
Wednesday, January 14th 2015
ESRC's 50th ANNIVERSARY RECEPTION Social science shaping society - past; present and future (Other)
Terrace Pavilion, House of Commons
Wednesday, January 14th 2015
CPC holding an exhibition stand at the event to celebrate the ESRC's 50th anniversary
Thursday, January 8th 2015
Fertility and socioeconomic gender equality between a couple - A Bayesian analysis (Seminars and lectures)
Beata Osiewalska, Cracow University of Economics
University of Southampton, 58/1009
Thursday, January 8th 2015
3pm
Connections between couples' socioeconomic status and fertility have recently attracted noticeable attention, especially in the context of ongoing changes of the gender roles and a growing variety of
family models. Although gender differences have been examined quite deeply, couples' procreative behaviour treated as a mutual result of male and female socioeconomic characteristics remains underresearched.
Previous studies have suggested that the proper inference about procreative behaviour of a couple should be performed not only by analysing the characteristics of both partners, but also by
considering at the same time the childless population, as well as the population of parents. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate couples' procreative behaviour with regard to the gender
socioeconomic (in)equality between partners, taking into account that the behavioural drivers could differ among parents and childless couples. The Bayesian Zero-Inflated Poisson framework, which
allows considering two states (childlessness and parenthood) within one statistical model, is applied. The empirical illustration is based on the Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) dataset.
Wednesday, December 17th 2014
Workshop on 'Exploring the Scottish Census' (Workshops)
University of Strathclyde
Wednesday, December 17th 2014
Robert Wright spoke at and organised this workshop exploring the Census 2011 results for Scotland.
Saturday, December 13th 2014
Deliberative Polling Event (Other)
Southampton
Saturday, December 13th 2014
The idea is that about 100 members of the public will be invited to discuss how a city like Southampton can best live with the consequences of recent and forthcoming migration.
Working in groups they will be given four possible policy responses; they can discuss and amend these during the session.
We have to make available four experts who can respond to questions from the working groups. I'm hoping these can cover different aspects of the debate including cohesion/integration policies; access to benefits and public services; work and economic fairness; and population change.
Friday, December 5th 2014
Young adults: Living and Learning in Recessional Times (Workshops)
BSA Meeting Room, London
Friday, December 5th 2014
CPC, BSA and University of Kent organised event showcasing key findings from the Young Adults Transitions ESRC project
Thursday, December 4th 2014
Migration statistics (Other)
Houses of Parliament, London
Thursday, December 4th 2014
A lunchtime discussion meeting in the Houses of Parliament on migration statistics: what the data tell us, how we know what we know, and what the data do not show us. Reflecting the current public debate on migration, this event seeks to unwrap what we know about migration intelligence. Join our expert panel to discuss the methods and reliability of migration data, what the data tell us, and what other means could be used to improve accuracy. Jakub Bijak was on the panel for this event.
Thursday, December 4th 2014
Risk of admission to care homes for older people: findings from the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study (Seminars and lectures)
Mark McCann, University of Glasgow
University of Southampton, 58/1009
Thursday, December 4th 2014
4pm
A joint CPC/CRA/CLC seminar: Over the last two centuries, the West has seen huge changes in nutrition, lifestyle, medicine and hygiene, leading to large gains in life expectancy and population health. The net effect of these improvements is to concentrate the need for health and social care onto the older population. Health and social care provision must plan ahead for the demand for services such as long term residential and nursing home care, and formal home care services. The vast majority of the care and support for older people in the community continues to come from informal social support networks, the friends and family of the older person. Better understanding of how this social environment influences care home utilisation can allow for better understanding of how demographic changes may affect the utilisation of formal services and what the appropriate health service response should be.
In this seminar I will present work based on the analysis of the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study, an administrative data linkage study based on the linkage of health records, Census records, other administrative data sources, and further linkages to data from the regional care home inspectorate. The study investigates risk of admission to care homes for older people, and will focus in particular on the importance of gender, living arrangements, housing tenure, and urban versus rural residence.
Monday, December 1st 2014
An agent-based decision model of migration, embedded in the life course (Seminars and lectures)
Anna Klabunde, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
University of Southampton, 02/1083
Monday, December 1st 2014
4pm
A joint CLC/CPC seminar: The goal of our research is to build a model which allows analysing population dynamics with respect to the effects of the timing and location of possible future migration flows which might by influenced by policy changes and demographic transitions.
To this end, we develop a prototype for a new generation of models which combine microsimulation of demographic processes with decision-making and interaction in an agent-based fashion.
The proposed model is a combination of two different models: A demographic projection model describing life course dynamics, and an agent-based model for describing unobservable decision processes related to migration. The occurrence and timing of all life events other than migration are determined based on Markovian processes (i.e., by microsimulation), whereas migration events are the outcome of a decision process based on the Theory of Planned Behavior. The parameters of the microsimulation model are estimated using multistate survival models on the MAFE (Migrations between Africa and Europe) data set, a micro survey of Senegalese individuals and heads of household in Senegal and Southern Europe. The unobservable parameters of the decision model are chosen using established calibration methods.
Associated Downloads
Thursday, November 27th 2014
Are there changing socio-economic inequalities in childhood cognitive test performance? Analysis of three British Birth Cohort Studies (Seminars and lectures)
Roxanne Connelly, University of Edinburgh
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, November 27th 2014
1pm
There is a large international literature that identifies links between parental social class and cognitive test scores in early childhood, this paper adds to the literature by examining the changing nature of this inequality for groups of children born at different periods in time.
We undertake analyses of three of the major British birth cohort studies, The National Child Development Study (1958), The British Cohort Study (1970) and The Millennium Cohort Study (2000/02). Each of these three studies contain some broadly comparable measures of early childhood cognitive skill, in addition to information about the child and their parents. The design and structure of the 1958 and the 1970 cohort studies are comparable and they have been used for stratification and social mobility research, and more generally in cross-cohort comparative research projects. The design and the structure of the Millennium Cohort Study is radically different to the earlier birth cohorts, and therefore comparisons with the earlier two studies are methodologically challenging. A central aspect of this paper is that we develop a strategy for analysing the three cohorts of data within a multivariate framework that appropriately accounts for variation in the design and structure of the datasets.
In line with existing research we identify clear links between parental characteristics and cognitive test scores in early childhood. A key feature of the analyses is that by using data from multiple birth cohorts we have been able to investigate temporal changes in this association. The statistical modelling results lead us to argue that the role of cognitive skills, measured by test performances, should be considered in analyses of the routes and trajectories that children embark upon on the way to educational and occupational outcomes in early adult life.
Wednesday, November 26th 2014
International Student Mobilities to Switzerland (Seminars and lectures)
Yvonne Riano, University of Neuchatel and Annique Lombard, National Center of Competence in Research (NCCR)
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Wednesday, November 26th 2014
1pm
TBC
Thursday, November 20th 2014 - Friday, November 21st 2014
British and Irish Longitudinal Studies of Ageing (BILS) Annual Conference (Conferences)
University of Strathclyde
Thursday, November 20th 2014
Thursday, November 20th 2014
CPC academic Robert Wright organised this conference.
Thursday, November 20th 2014
Innovations in population statistics: what we've done and what's to come (Seminars and lectures)
Ian Cope, Office for National Statistics
University of Southampton, 58/1009
Thursday, November 20th 2014
3pm
Ian Cope will reflect on the changes made to the 2011 Census, including new questions introduced to improve the understanding of the population estimates and the new outputs which have been produced. He will also cover improvements to the mid year population estimates, including improvements to migration statistics. Ian will also cover the developments in the use of administrative data to produce population estimates, will share the results so far, and plans for the 2021 Census and the greater use of administrative data.
Associated Downloads
Friday, November 14th 2014
The Active Ageing Index – Potential for Evidence-Based Policy Development: A Dialogue with Policymakers (Other)
Brussels
Friday, November 14th 2014
An open session with a variety of Brussels-based stakeholders (EU institutions, civil society representatives, think tanks), where we would like to discuss the use of the AAI in the policy making at 1) European/international level and 2) at regional level [50 participants
Thursday, November 13th 2014 - Friday, November 14th 2014
Fourth Meeting of the Expert Group on the Active Ageing Index (Other)
Liaison Office of Friuli Venezia Giulia, Brussels
Thursday, November 13th 2014
Thursday, November 13th 2014
A closed technical meeting on the Active Ageing Index with the AAI Expert Group
Tuesday, November 11th 2014
Health; demographic change and well-being (Workshops)
Covent Garden, Brussels
Tuesday, November 11th 2014
Jane Falkingham contributed her expertise to this workshop, organised jointly by the Directorate General for Research and Innovation (DG RTD) and the Directorate General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology (DG CONNECT) of the European Commission. The workshop takes place in Brussels (Covent Garden, Place Rogier 16) on Tuesday, 11 November 2014, from 10:00 to 17:00. Representatives from diverse disciplines and fields of activity will explore how to ensure the societal relevance of future research under Horizon 2020's Societal Challenge 'Health, Demographic Change and Wellbeing'.
A group of 50 participants from across Europe including researchers, stakeholders and European Commission representatives will tackle these issues:
• Europe's demographic challenge – ageing societies
• Public health and healthy lifestyles
• Health systems and stakeholder engagement. In the process, we will explore how the integration of knowledge, methodologies, data, concepts and perspectives from social sciences and the humanities (SSH) and non-SSH disciplines such as medicine, health studies, medical technologies, gerontology, care and ICT for ageing can improve our understanding of and response to complex societal issues related to health, demographic change and well-being.
Thursday, November 6th 2014
Father involvement and fertility in Norway (Seminars and lectures)
Trude Lappegard, Statistics Norway
University of Southampton
Thursday, November 6th 2014
4pm
In this paper we investigate the role of father involvement in the society on individual fertility. As the first country in the world Norway implemented an earmarked part of the paid parental leave program to fathers in 1993, the so-called fathers' quota, which is leave days that the family lose if not taken by the father. We argue that the introduction of the fathers' quota have changed father's behavior and thus the social norms towards more involved fatherhood, i.e. higher share of leave taken by fathers signal stronger norms toward involved fathers. For this study we use unique data covering the whole Norwegian population and suitable statistical methods, i.e., the hazard rate model. Assuming that individual decision-making is embedded in contextual conditions such as social norms, we calculate two measures of father involvement for each of the 435 municipalities which are expected to be positively associated with higher fertility.
Thursday, October 30th 2014
Prospects for a balanced recovery (Other)
Westminster
Thursday, October 30th 2014
Ann Berrington contributed to the panel discussion titled "A Balanced Recovery for People and Places
Thursday, October 23rd 2014
Experiencing of social security and prospects for long-term settlement in Scotland amongst migrants from Central Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union (Seminars and lectures)
Paulina Trevena, Central and East European Studies, University of Glasgow
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, October 23rd 2014
1pm
This is a four year ESRC-funded project which started in November 2013. It aims to study perspectives and experiences of 'social security' amongst migrants from Central Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union in Scotland. We use 'social security' in a holistic sense to mean the ways in which migrants are able to make themselves socially, economically, personally and culturally secure in a new environment and their strategies for dealing with every day risks. The project fieldwork began in July 2014 and will last for 12 months. At the seminar, we would like to speak about the research and share some of the preliminary findings from our field sites.
Tuesday, October 21st 2014
Exploring satisfaction with adult social care services in Hampshire: the added complexity of ethnicity (Seminars and lectures)
Ros Willis, Centre for Research on Ageing, University of Southampton
University of Southampton, 54/8031(8C)
Tuesday, October 21st 2014
3pm
A joint CPC/CRA seminar: In England, national user experience surveys show that people from Black and Minority Ethnic groups tend to be less satisfied with social care services compared with the White population, but the nature of the survey methodology does not allow an explanation of why this difference occurred. In this study 82 in-depth interviews were conducted with adult service users and informal carers from South Asian and White British backgrounds in Hampshire, Portsmouth and Southampton to explore their experiences and satisfaction levels. A further 39 social care practitioners were also interviewed to understand satisfaction from their perspective. Interviews were analysed using thematic analysis. The majority of participants reported high satisfaction levels despite some aspects of poor care. As expected, language was an important facilitator of good care for South Asian participants, but ethnic-matching with care staff was considered less important. Although all participants were using some form of social care, many were uncertain of how to access further support services. Many reported difficulties in first accessing social care, and the most common forms of help seeking for both ethnic groups were through word-of-mouth and through the General Practitioner. The overarching theme in the analysis was Understanding the System. Differences in satisfaction were related to being able to work with social services to make the most of the available support. Participants with a good understanding of the social care system were better able to achieve control over their care. Participants with a poor understanding of the social care system were uncertain about how to access further care, or why a service had been refused or withdrawn. More White British than South Asian participants had a good understanding of the social care system, likely related to greater familiarity through experience. Recommendations for social care services are to have better communication throughout the entire social care process, including outreach, to ensure service users and informal carers have accurate expectations of social care services.
Monday, October 20th 2014 - Thursday, October 30th 2014
Agent-based modeling and simulation (ABM-ABS) (Workshops)
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), Rostock
Monday, October 20th 2014
Monday, October 20th 2014
Course co-organised between Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Vienna Institute of Demography and University of Southampton aimed at PhD students.
Wednesday, September 24th 2014
2011 Census special products - recent developments with origin destination data and microdata (Seminars and lectures)
Cecilia MacIntyre, Census Quality Assurance Statistician, National Records of Scotland
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Wednesday, September 24th 2014
1pm
So far, the main Census outputs which have been published by NRS are in the form of standard tables. These are available through the Census Data Explorer which can be accessed through Scotland's Census website.
Further output from the Census is based on origin-destination data (also known as flow data) output from which will include the travel-to-work and migration patterns of individuals, cross-tabulated by variables of interest (for example occupation). New products for the 2011 Census will also provide the migration patterns of those living at a student address one year ago and provide information on individuals with second residences.A large amount of the origin-destination data will be at UK level. This talk will summarise the availability of this data, and give a few examples of how it can be used.
Progress on the development of samples of anonymised records will be given including an illustration of a use of the Scottish teaching file.
Tuesday, September 23rd 2014
Fertility in Historical China: Recent Research Findings and Their Theoretical Implications (Seminars and lectures)
Zhongwei Zhao, Australian National University
University of Southampton, 58/1009
Tuesday, September 23rd 2014
3pm
It is widely accepted that fertility was high before the demographic transition because there was no deliberate fertility control in the past; and this was due to either that people did not know how to control their reproduction or that they wanted to have many children, especially sons. New research findings from recent investigation show that in Chinese history marital fertility was not very high. A considerable number of people had the intention to, and they did, control their family size, although effective contraceptives were not available. Furthermore, antinatalist ideas and suggestions were promoted by some Chinese officials and intellectuals a long time ago. This presentation summarises some major research findings made in Chinese historical demography in recent years and discusses their theoretical implications and importance for our understanding of past demographic regimes and rapid fertility transition taking place in recent history.
Thursday, September 11th 2014
Whose responsibility is it to prepare for ageing? Guardian Seminar (Seminars and lectures)
Guardian headquarters, London
Thursday, September 11th 2014
Britain is “woefully under-prepared” to cope with the expected explosion of older people, a House of Lords inquiry concluded last year.
And the Office for Budgetary Responsibility's latest Fiscal Sustainability Report says further tax increases or spending cuts are likely to be needed to help meet the costs of an older population.
Join us at the Guardian's London headquarters on 11 September 2014 for a seminar bringing together key stakeholders from across central and local government, civil society and the private sector to discuss how we can prepare for demographic change.
A panel discussion will explore and identify creative public service and policy solutions to the challenges and opportunities presented by an ageing population.
Will government measures such as pension reforms and changes to the health and social care system meet the country's future needs? How can we
plug the dangerous gaps in welfare support many older people face?
The panel debate will be followed by smaller roundtable discussions led by our partners PA Consulting Group, British Red Cross, Hanover Housing and Independent Age.
Jane Falkingham will be a discussant at this event
Wednesday, September 10th 2014
Census flow data analysis (Workshops)
University of Winchester
Wednesday, September 10th 2014
Training workshop organised by Zhiqiang Feng at the BSPS conference 2014.
Saturday, August 23rd 2014
Welfare Powers (Other)
London
Saturday, August 23rd 2014
David Bell took part in this roundtable discussion with the Department for Work and Pensions on welfare powers.
Tuesday, August 5th 2014
Immigration; Scotland and the Constitutional Change Debate (Seminars and lectures)
The Melting Pot, Edinburgh
Tuesday, August 5th 2014
SRA Scotland Evening Seminar: This free SRA Scotland evening seminar will give an overview of recent research undertaken by the Centre for Population Change as part of the ESRC-funded Future of the UK and Scotland programme of activities. The research uses the 2011 UK Census to explore the diverse immigration picture in the UK, considering how Scotland compares with English regions. The presentation will cover all aspects of the approach taken, reflect on key lessons learned and explore the implications of research findings in terms of immigration policy, population growth and constitutional reform.
Wednesday, July 9th 2014
Toward a New Macro-Segregation? Diversity, Immigration, and Changing U.S. Settlement Patterns (Seminars and lectures)
Dan Lichter, Cornell University
University of Southampton, 58/1007
Wednesday, July 9th 2014
3pm
This paper documents a new macro-segregation, where the locus of racial differentiation in the United States (and perhaps in Europe) resides increasingly in socio-spatial processes at the community or place level. Specifically, it (1) shows how growing ethnoracial diversity has unfolded unevenly over geographic space in an era of rapid immigration, and (2) illustrates a spatially-inclusive approach that identifies emerging patterns of segregation within and between cities, suburbs, and small towns. The results, based on U.S. census data between 1990 and 2010 suggest a new form of racial and ethnic segregation, one where the locus of ethnoracial differentiation increasingly resides in places - cities, suburbs, and small towns - rather than in urban neighborhoods. Analyses highlight the rise in new immigrant destinations, the growth in majority-minority cities and communities, and offsetting patterns of ethnoracial segregation at different spatial scales (e.g., declines in neighborhood-to-neighborhood but increasing city-to-suburb and suburb-to-suburb segregation). Segregation in America has taken a new turn. The usual focus on declining big-city neighborhood segregation, as a measure of social distance or shifting boundaries between groups, is arguably incomplete at best and misleading at worst. Residential segregation is increasingly shaped by the cities and communities in which neighborhoods are embedded.
Thursday, July 3rd 2014
Welfare in an Idle Society? Reinventing Retirement, Work, Wealth, Health, and Welfare (Seminars and lectures)
Bernd Marin, European Centre for Social Welfare, Policy and Research
University of Southampton, 54/8033 (8B)
Thursday, July 3rd 2014
3pm
The modern welfare state is indeed one of the greatest achievements of the post-war 20th century. With its key aims of eradicating the five giant social ills of "Want, Ignorance, Disease, Squalor and Idleness", it has aimed to providing a minimum standard of living, with all people of working age paying a weekly contribution; in return, benefits would be paid to anyone who was sick, unemployed, retired or widowed. The modern welfare state, therefore, is about maintaining a delicate equilibrium between dependent social groups on the one hand and the active working classes on the other. In the case of old-age security, this balance is being achieved (or not) by the so-called Generation Contract. This social pact is more of an implicit, unwritten and unspecified social contract.
This seminar will present the findings of the ground-breaking book, "Welfare in an Idle Society? Reinventing Retirement, Work, Wealth, Health and Welfare", that demonstrates how countries are addressing population-ageing challenges in depth, using the case study of Austria to gain the required complexity and differentiation in a comparative European framework of empirical evidence. The book offers a broad social science study in political economy and sociology, not an economic analysis. Though focusing on pensions, the analysis included in the book centres on the (im)balance between work and non-work, issues of health, work ability, employability, and benefit receipt from old-age security to disability allowance.
Saturday, June 28th 2014
Mapping Diasporas in the European Union and the United States (Workshops)
Brussels
Saturday, June 28th 2014
IZA/RAND Workshop. Jackie Wahba spoke at this event
Wednesday, June 25th 2014
Focus on Partnerships: Discourses on Cohabitation and Marriage throughout Europe and Australia (Conferences)
Budapest, Hungary
Wednesday, June 25th 2014
Public Side-Meeting at European Population Conference organised by Brienna Perelli-Harris.
Friday, June 20th 2014
A Bayesian approach to deriving population estimates from multiple datasets (Seminars and lectures)
John Bryant, Statistics New Zealand
University of Southampton, 58/1007
Friday, June 20th 2014
3pm
Many countries are looking for new ways to exploit administrative data for population estimation. The talk will describe a Bayesian approach being developed at Statistics New Zealand. It will include an application to estimating population by age and sex in 66 regions of New Zealand. The approach has some nice features. There is no need to link datasets at the individual level. Random variation in demographic processes and measurement are dealt with naturally. Evaluations and weights for the datasets emerge automatically out of the estimation process. However, as the application demonstrates, population estimation is still difficult when the available datasets all have similar flaws.
Thursday, June 19th 2014
Use of probabilistic forecasts; with focus on population applications (Workshops)
Royal Statistical Society
Thursday, June 19th 2014
CPC organised workshop with discussants and speakers from both the industry and academics
Tuesday, June 17th 2014
Fertility decline and increased proportions of nulliparous married women aged 30-44 years: Analysis of marital status, regional, and socioeconomic influences - Brazil, 2000-2010 (Seminars and lectures)
Andre Junqueira Caetano, Catholic University of Minas GERAIS/Cedeplar - Federal University of Minas Gerais, Brazil
University of Southampton, 58/1007
Tuesday, June 17th 2014
3pm
The decrease of parities higher than two children was the main feature of the Brazilian fertility decline until 2000, when its TFR reached 2.4. During the 2000s the decline followed unabated so that the TFR was below replacement level in 2010 (1.9). Nevertheless, terminating at higher-order parities was not an option anymore. In this scenario, the postponement of the first and second child as well as limitation at one or two children played the major role in the 2000-2010 period. As a consequence, the proportion of married women older than 30 years without children increased substantially. In this respect, there are wide variations in the reproductive behaviour according marital status (legally married women as compared to women in consensual unions), region, place of residence (metropolitan urban, other urban, and rural dwellers), and socioeconomic level. This piece analyses the increase in the proportion of married women 30-44 years old with no children in Brazil between 2000 and 2010 taking into account the reproductive heterogeneity across regions and socioeconomic levels as well as differentials between legally married and women in consensual unions. Human reproduction research has established that female biological fecundity declines gradually after the menarche, but more intensely after 32 years-old and dramatically after 37 years-old. Moreover, aging is regarded as the main determinant of female sub-fecundity, infecundity and even sterility before menopause. Thus nulliparous married women aged 30-44 is taken as a subfertile female population, which often serves as a proxy for the potential demand for Assisted Reproduction Technology (ART). There is neither public nor private health insurance that pays for ART in Brazil and as the country marches towards lower levels of fertility this is an issue that may become a problem.
Friday, June 13th 2014
Bayesian projection of international migration for all countries (Seminars and lectures)
Jonathan Azose, University of Washington
University of Southampton, 58/1023
Friday, June 13th 2014
1pm
A joint CPC/S3RI seminar: In this talk I present a method for probabilistic projection of international migration. The goal of this work is to produce projections of net migration for all countries extending out to the year 2100, similar to the projections in the United Nation's World Population Prospects. Migration is notoriously hard to predict, so quantification of uncertainty is especially important. We accomplish this with a Bayesian hierarchical autoregressive model fit to time series data for all countries.
Thursday, June 12th 2014
A Microsimulation Model of Social Care in Wales (Seminars and lectures)
Graham Stark, Virtual Worlds Research
University of Southampton, 58/1007
Thursday, June 12th 2014
3pm
A joint CPC/CLC seminar: In this talk I will discuss a microsimulation model built for the Welsh Government which simulates the costs and distributional effect of changes to the system for paying for social care in Wales, for up to 20 years into the future.
The model uses household data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). It has a number of innovative technical features, and a user-friendly Web interface. The program code is freely available under an Open Source licence.
I will review the design and implementation of the model, outline possible future developments, and demonstrate the it in use.
Friday, May 30th 2014 - Sunday, June 1st 2014
Dealing with Uncertainty in Migration Research (Workshops)
Regent's University London
Friday, May 30th 2014
Friday, May 30th 2014
Workshop run by Jakub Bijak held at Regent's University, London as part of the Turkish Migration interdisciplinary conference.
Friday, May 23rd 2014
European Commission; Social Analysis (Seminars and lectures)
Brussels
Friday, May 23rd 2014
Ann Berrington presented at this one-day seminar hosted by the European Commission in Brussels, on her research ''Young adults' living arrangements: The impact of economic uncertainty on leaving and returning home in the UK'.
Thursday, May 22nd 2014
Happiness among Europeans in times of economic recession (Seminars and lectures)
Francesco Billari, University of Oxford
University of Southampton, 02/1039
Thursday, May 22nd 2014
3pm
The paper assesses the dynamics of self-reported happiness in 26 European countries during the Great Recession and the sovereign debt crisis using all waves of the European Social Survey - including the newly released sixth round to obtain a pooled dataset spanning from 2002 to 2012. Using information on the interview to reconstruct quarterly happiness series and the associated macroeconomic data, the paper investigates whether the heterogeneous experience of the crisis explains trends and differentials.
In doing so, it holds the observed patterns up against a set of relevant theories aimed at explaining the effect of deprivation on individual wellbeing.
Thursday, May 22nd 2014
Mobility and linked lives: What can we learn from Swedish register data? (Seminars and lectures)
Gunnar Malmberg, University of Umea
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, May 22nd 2014
1pm
TBC
Thursday, May 22nd 2014
Visualisations: Education Flow Data (Seminars and lectures)
Nikola Sander, Vinnea Institute of Demography
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, May 22nd 2014
1pm
TBC
Thursday, May 22nd 2014
DEPRIVEDHOODS: Socio-spatial inequality, deprived neighbourhoods and neighbourhood effects (Seminars and lectures)
Maarten Van Ham
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, May 22nd 2014
1pm
TBC
Monday, May 12th 2014 - Friday, May 16th 2014
The Economics of International Migration (Workshops)
University of Southampton
Monday, May 12th 2014
Monday, May 12th 2014
CPC organised short course taught by Michel Beine from the University of Luxemburg
Friday, May 9th 2014
What is the role of NGOs in the assisted voluntary returns of asylum seekers and irregular migrants? (Seminars and lectures)
COMPAS, University of Oxford
Friday, May 9th 2014
COMPAS Breakfast Briefing presented by Derek McGhee and Bridget Anderson
Thursday, May 8th 2014
The health of grandparents caring for their grandchildren: The role of early and mid-life conditions (Seminars and lectures)
Giorgio Di Gessa, Karen Glaser and Anthea Tinker, King's College, London
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, May 8th 2014
1pm
Grandparents are an important source of childcare. However, concerns have been raised that caring for grandchildren may come at the expense of grandparents' own wellbeing. Our study examines the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between various types of grandparental childcare and grandparents' own physical and psychological health, and focuses on the extent to which such associations are directly and indirectly affected by cumulative advantage/disadvantage across the life course. We used a sample of grandparents aged 50+ from waves 1-4 of two nationally representative longitudinal studies of older people from selected European countries, i.e. the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, and the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. Both datasets provide detailed retrospective life histories, including childhood characteristics (such as health and socio-economic position), and adulthood conditions (marital history, unemployment spells, adverse life events such as bereavement). Health outcomes considered were self-rated health, depressive symptoms and physical health. Logistic regressions and structural equation models were used in order to disentangle how and whether childhood and adulthood factors interact -both directly and indirectly- with grandparental childcare to affect grandparents' own health. Using longitudinal data, we found little evidence to suggest that grandparental childcare provision has negative effects on grandparents' health. On the contrary, our results suggest that there may be health benefits to grandparents who provide childcare. However, preliminary findings suggest that poorer health among grandparents who do not provide grandchild care, or who coreside with their grandchildren, do not appear to be a consequence of care provision per se, but rather may be due to prior characteristics - particularly childhood poor health and adulthood socio-economic disadvantage.
Thursday, April 24th 2014
Neo-liberalism and Life Expectancy: A Study in the Political-Economy of Population Health (Seminars and lectures)
Ross Macmillan, Universita Bocconi
University of Southampton, 58/1007
Thursday, April 24th 2014
3pm
Recent decades have seen nation states increasingly adopt neoliberal social policies,
policies that stress free markets in the provision of social welfare, localization of
services, and more minimalist government. While the rise of neoliberalism has
spawned an extensive body of critique, there exists an almost universal view that
neoliberalism is particularly detrimental for population health. Empirical evidence on
the issue however is quite weak, is limited in scope, and is ultimately equivocal. This
paper conducts a unique and powerful assessment of the relationship between
neoliberalism and life expectancy through both trend analysis of data from the Human
Mortality Database (ca. 1960-2009) and complementary fixed-effects analyses of
supplemented World Bank data (1970 -2010 in five year intervals). We further assess
the robustness of results by replicating the latter analyses for rates of infant mortality.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, the results show little to no evidence that life
expectancy or infant survival is compromised with more extensive neoliberalism and
evidence that it has actually been enhanced, most so in lower income countries.
Implications for theory and research on socio-political conditions and population
health are discussed.
Friday, April 4th 2014
Hypothesis verification for simulation models: Theory and applications (Seminars and lectures)
Bogumil Kaminski, Division of Decision Analysis and Support, Institute of Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics
University of Southampton, 58/1007
Friday, April 4th 2014
3pm
In the presentation we propose a method of hypothesis verification for stochastic simulation models using samples of their outputs. A Bayesian procedure is developed to evaluate the probability that the hypothesis under investigation is true for a single simulation input. Next, we prove that the only coherent way of aggregating such probabilities over different simulation inputs is by averaging. Moreover, conditions for averaging to give consistent and asymptotically unbiased evaluation of input space proportion, for which the tested hypothesis is true, are given. Finally, it is shown that in hypothesis verification, under limited simulation effort capacity assumption, there is a bias-variance trade-off between the number of input points sampled and sample size per point. The obtained theoretical results are illustrated by analysis of a simulation model presented in paper "Volatility Clustering in Financial Markets: Empirical Facts and Agent-Based Models" by Cont (2007).
Thursday, April 3rd 2014
Social Change in Social Distance (Seminars and lectures)
Paul Lambert and Dave Griffith, University of Stirling
Room 1/G/9, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, April 3rd 2014
1pm
TBC
Thursday, March 27th 2014
Fertility and Family Policy: An Intersectional Perspective (Seminars and lectures)
Wendy Sigle-Rushton, LSE
University of Southampton, 58/1023
Thursday, March 27th 2014
3pm
This paper considers how intersectionality, a key theoretical and methodological concept, can contribute to the way we, as demographers, understand and study the relationship between fertility and family policy in Europe. Intersectionality posits that different dimensions of social life are intersecting, mutually modifying and inseparable. Accepting the basic premise of intersectionality means acknowledging that it is potentially problematic to conceptualize or name women as a homogeneous group. This has two important consequences for the study of fertility and family policy. First of all, it helps us make sense of the cross-national evidence that, at first glance, is somewhat puzzling. Second, by drawing attention to processes of exclusion and its consequences, intersectionality highlights the need to critically question our own position and assumptions. An intersectional perspective requires that we take heterogeneity into account when we describe or endorse particular policy options as "woman" or "family" friendly.
Tuesday, March 25th 2014
Aging Self-Stereotypes: Obstacle or Pathway to Health? (Seminars and lectures)
Becca Levy, Yale University
University of Southampton, Building 58, Room 2097
Tuesday, March 25th 2014
3pm
Social scientists have documented ageism in a variety of spheres, including everyday conversations, politics, and the workplace. Although there has been considerable research that documents the existence of negative age stereotypes and ageism, less is known about the operation of positive age stereotypes and how older individuals are impacted by positive and negative age stereotypes. In this talk, I will present a series of experimental and longitudinal studies that examine how age stereotypes and aging self-stereotypes (older individuals beliefs about old people in general) operate. I will also present the stereotype embodiment theory that integrates these findings and suggests new directions for research. The theory proposes that stereotypes that are assimilated from the surrounding culture can contribute to older individuals' self-definitions and their health. The central message of the talk will be that the aging process and aging health is, in part, a social construct.
Sunday, March 23rd 2014
Tedx Southampton University; Flourishing in the 21st Century (Public engagement events)
Nuffield Theatre, University of Southampton
Sunday, March 23rd 2014
Jane Falkingham presented CPC research at this public orientated event held at the Nuffield Theatre at the University of Southampton on 23 March 2014.
Friday, March 21st 2014
Workshop: Financial: What is It and Why is it Important (Workshops)
School of Education, University of Glasgow
Friday, March 21st 2014
Workshop organised by CPC academic Robert Wright
Thursday, March 20th 2014
Budget Briefing for Business Leaders (Other)
Glasgow
Thursday, March 20th 2014
The Chancellor of the Exchequer will present the 2014 budget on Wednesday, March 19 when the Government's plans for taxation, benefits, spending and forecasts for the economy will be set out. Against a testing economic background, the challenge is to continue to raise revenue and at the same time provide a tax environment in which businesses can flourish.
The Herald and Sunday Herald are organising a free breakfast event supported by Campbell Dallas, McClure Naismith and Skypark on Thursday, March 20 at Skypark, Elliot Street, Glasgow to understand what the announcements will mean to business and individuals in Scotland.
Thursday, February 27th 2014
Should Scotland have its own immigration policy? The politicians and the professionals seminar series – migration (Seminars and lectures)
Royal Society of Edinburgh
Thursday, February 27th 2014
The Politicians and Professionals Seminar Series – Migration
Thursday, February 27th 2014
What is in a health geography? (Seminars and lectures)
Nicola Shelton, UCL
University of Southampton 58/1023
Thursday, February 27th 2014
3pm
Using a variety of sources the talk will illustrate the benefits of taking a geographical perspective when analysing health data.
Questions will be raised as to what might constitute a 'health' geography and to what extent geographic inequalities in health
are due to the geography of socio-economic inequalities.
Thursday, February 20th 2014
The Role of Education at Young and Older Ages in Explaining Health Inequalities in Europe (Seminars and lectures)
Albert Sabater, University of St Andrews and Benedetta Pongiglione, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Room 1/G/9, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, February 20th 2014
1pm
The high-educated tend to have lower levels of morbidity and mortality than their low-educated counterparts. This positive association between education gradient and health outcomes is widely documented in literature. However, the age-specific pattern of this relationship remains largely unexplored in Europe. Within this context, two main different paths have been proposed. On the one hand, according to the 'status divergence model', the socioeconomic status (SES)-based gap increases with age. On the other hand, the 'status divergence/convergence model' supports that health inequalities between SES groups increase throughout middle age and decline at old ages. This study attempts to provide further empirical evidence of which model, if any, prevails in Europe, and which differences occur among European countries. For this purpose, we use a multiple cross-sectional analysis by age which covers 14 European countries and uses data from the fifth round of the European Social Survey (2010) and the fourth wave of the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (2010). By comparing young and older age groups, we show that health inequalities peak at middle age and then decline at the old age. This 'divergent/convergent' path appears to be common among most European countries. Nonetheless, what differs from a country to another is the amplitude of education-based health gap. In Eastern Europe education affects health the most, while in Northern Europe there is no evidence of a significant effect of education on health.
Thursday, February 20th 2014
Choose between food and fuel (Other)
European Parliament, Europe House, London
Thursday, February 20th 2014
Join us to debate the on-going issue of Food and Fuel Poverty among Older People in the UK to showcase the research of Dr Aravinda Meera Guntupalli and Dr Athina Vlachantoni, with a view to contributing to the policy relevant debate on the choice faced by vulnerable older persons between heating their homes and eating regular and nutritious meals. This event is a joint collaboration between the University of Southampton's Public Policy Network, the Centre for Research on Ageing, the ESRC Centre for Population Change, the USRG on Ageing and Lifelong Health, the USRG on Population Health and the Biomedical Research Centre in Nutrition and Lifestyle.
Friday, February 14th 2014
Where does migration sit within the debate over the future of the UK and Scotland (Seminars and lectures)
COMPAS, University of Oxford
Friday, February 14th 2014
COMPAS Breakfast Briefing presented by David McCollum and Allan Findlay
Wednesday, January 29th 2014
A mobile Europe: background, future and implications of EU mobility (Seminars and lectures)
Helga de Valk, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute/Vrije Universiteit Brussel
University of Southampton 58/1023
Wednesday, January 29th 2014
1pm
European mobility has been highly debated in the past couple of years and in many EU countries this debate has come up recently again. Yet the mobility of EU citizens is at the hearth of the EU integration project. In this presentation I will focus on patterns of European mobility and their development over time. Second I focus on the characteristics of European migrants in flow and stocks: Who are the Europeans that are moving around and what background do those residing in another EU country have? Finally I study the effects of European mobility for intergenerational family relations, intermarriage and settlement patterns. Whereas the first part of the presentation will take a comparative European approach, the latter part of the presentation will focus on Belgium. I will draw from official migration statistics and supplement the presentation with new survey data that can shed light on European family relations.
Friday, January 10th 2014
Maternal Mortality in Malawi, 1977 to 2012 (Seminars and lectures)
Tim Colbourn, Institute for Global Health, University College London
University of Southampton
Friday, January 10th 2014
3pm
Background
Millennium Development Goal 5 (MDG 5) targets a 75% reduction in maternal mortality from 1990 to 2015, yet accurate information on trends in maternal mortality and what drives them is sparse. We aimed to fill this gap for Malawi, a country in sub-Saharan Africa with high maternal mortality.
Methods
We reviewed the literature for population-based studies that provide estimates of the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) in Malawi, and for studies that list and justify variables potentially associated with trends in MMR. We used all population-based estimates of MMR representative of the whole of Malawi to construct a best-fit trend-line for the range of years with available data; calculated the proportion attributable to HIV, and qualitatively analysed trends and evidence related to other covariates to logically assess likely candidate drivers of the observed trend in MMR.
Results
Fourteen suitable estimates of MMR were found, covering the years 1977-2010. The resulting best-fit line predicted MMR in Malawi to have increased from 317 maternal deaths per 100,000 livebirths in 1980, to 748 in 1990, before peaking at 971 in 1999, and falling to 846 in 2005 and 484 in 2010. Concurrent deteriorations and improvements in HIV and health system investment and provision are the most plausible explanations for the trend. Female literacy and education, family planning, and poverty reduction could play more of a role if thresholds are passed in coming years.
Conclusion
The decrease in MMR in Malawi is encouraging as it appears recent efforts to control HIV and improve the health system are bearing fruit. Sustained efforts to prevent and treat maternal complications are required if Malawi is to attain the MDG 5 target and save the lives of more of its mothers in years to come
Associated Downloads
Thursday, December 12th 2013
Population ageing: the time-bomb that isn't? (Seminars and lectures)
John MacInnes & Jeroen Spijker, University of Edinburgh
University of Southampton 58/1007
Thursday, December 12th 2013
3pm
For the first time ever, there are now more elderly (65+) in the UK than children (< 15). While declining fertility and infant mortality levels formed the basis for this growth from the end of the 19th century until WWII, for example through the defeat of child killing infectious diseases, since the 1970s falling old-age mortality has been an additional driving force. This 'population ageing' has worried policy makers because for every worker paying tax and national insurance there are more older citizens, with greater demands on social insurance, health and welfare systems and increasing volumes of morbidity and disability.
However, these concerns are based on measures of ageing that do not take proper account of rising life expectancy or changes in the labour force. We therefore propose an alternative, more objective, measurement of ageing that considers remaining life expectancy and the employed population rather than a fixed old-age category and the population of working age. Results show that old age-dependency turns out to have fallen substantially in the UK over recent decades, and is likely stabilize close to its current level.
Associated Downloads
Thursday, December 5th 2013
Social change in social distance (Seminars and lectures)
Paul Lambert, University of Sterling
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, December 5th 2013
1:30pm
In an ongoing project called 'Is Britain Pulling Apart' (www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart), the authors use secondary survey microdata on the social connections held by people as a way of assessing the 'social distance' between social categories (for example - if there are relatively few social interactions between individuals who read the Independent and the Sun newspapers, then those groups are relatively more socially distant, and so forth). In this approach, changes over time can be explored by testing if there are differences between birth cohorts in the social distance between the social categories of interest. Moreover, the same style of analysis can be used to evaluate if there are interesting differences between other social groups, such as between advantaged and disadvantaged individuals, or different regions of residence. The authors have also used the same style of analysis to explore a number of cross-national differences in social distance patterns and trends for selected measures that are available on international datasets (such as covering occupational and educational homogamy). The authors view so far, for the UK, is that 'no', Britain isn't pulling apart at all; this presentation will seek to summarise evidence social change in social distance in Britain, and make comparisons with trends in a range of other contemporary societies. Please email cpcscot@st-andrews.ac.uk to book your place.
Wednesday, December 4th 2013
Secrets of IPUMS-International: Integrating and disseminating census microdata to researchers world-wide free of cost (Seminars and lectures)
Robert McCaa, University of Minnesota
University of Southampton 58/1007
Wednesday, December 4th 2013
4pm
This is a joint CPC and EPSRC Care Life Cycle (CLC) seminar
IPUMS-International is a global initiative begun in 1999 to preserve, integrate and disseminate census microdata. 100 official statistical agencies -- including the Office of National Statistics in the UK -- have embraced IPUMS-International protocols for managing access to microdata free of cost. Researchers world-wide download custom-tailored extracts from www.ipums.org/international for more than two hundred censuses covering as many as five decades. The talk will bare some of the secrets of the project, share tips for exploiting the database, and discuss new projects: TerraPop (GIS), remote data access, integrating other types of microdata, and cooperation with national, regional and global initiatives.
Friday, November 15th 2013
Longevity and the life course in Australia: implications for age-based policy settings (Seminars and lectures)
Nerida Hunter, Australian National University
University of Southampton 54/5027
Friday, November 15th 2013
3pm
Chronological age is regularly used to determine eligibility for programs and services. Incorporating age in program design can improve program effectiveness, constrain costs and 'nudge' the economic and social activities of individuals in the target age groups. It can, therefore, influence life course decisions. Age-based policy settings in Australia have, historically, supported youth as a time for education, working-age as a time for labour market engagement and family formation, and aged as a time for recreation followed by physical decline. With unprecedented increases in the human life-span of the 21st Century, there is both the need and opportunity to re-examine age-based policy settings. This presentation outlines the changes already occurring in Australia and considers future policy options.
Wednesday, November 13th 2013
Bayesian Reconstruction of Past Populations and Vital Rates for Developing and Developed Countries (Seminars and lectures)
Adrian Raftery, University of Washington
University of Southampton 58/2097
Wednesday, November 13th 2013
12pm
I will describe Bayesian population reconstruction, a new method for estimating past populations by age and sex, with fully probabilistic statements of uncertainty. It simultaneously estimates age-specific population counts, vital rates and net migration from fragmentary data while formally accounting for measurement error. As inputs, it takes initial bias-corrected estimates of age-specific population counts, vital rates and net migration. The output is a joint posterior probability distribution which yields fully probabilistic interval estimates of past vital rates and population numbers by age and sex. It is designed for the kind of data commonly collected in demographic surveys and censuses and can be applied to countries with widely varying levels of data quality. This is joint work with Mark Wheldon, Patrick Gerland and Samuel Clark.
Thursday, November 7th 2013
Family planning across generations in China: are choices still orthodox and restricted? (Seminars and lectures)
Sabu Padmadas, University of Southampton
University of Southampton 58/2097
Thursday, November 7th 2013
3pm
Chinese family planning programme has been unprecedented in scale and population impact. The programme which spanned over four different phases since the 1970s from a late, long and few era to a tightened and restricted policy to an informed choices era had enormous impact on an entire generation. The first three phases focused almost exclusively on the promotion of long-term and irreversible methods and thereafter a gradual shift was noted in the spread of contraceptive choices. There is, however, little systematic analysis of the choices that couples had as they entered reproductive life, over time and across different periods of family planning programmes, particularly in the context of rapid urbanisation and social transformation. The cohort analysis of the first method use provides a historical insight of the extent of family planning programme impact, the opportunities and the shifts in choices that couples experienced over the four distinct phases of the programme. The cohort analysis based on data from the 2006 National Population and Family Planning Survey considered 33,257 women married at different points in time during which the country witnessed historical changes in the structure and delivery of family planning programmes. The findings show clear shift in contraceptive choices towards short-term methods among recent cohorts. Long-term methods still dominate method mix in China but there is little evidence to prove that choices are orthodox and restricted.
Thursday, October 24th 2013
The social context and consequences of fertility transition in Brazil (Seminars and lectures)
Andre Junqueira Caetano, Pontificia Universidade Catolica de Minas Gerais
University of Southampton 58/1065
Thursday, October 24th 2013
3pm
The aim of this seminar is to examine the milestones of population change in Brazil that was driven by the fertility decline in the last 40 years. The decline was linked to industrialization, urbanization, expansion of education and of female participation in the labour market as well as to institutional changes - such as the expansion of public health care - that redefined values and attitudes regarding family size, sexual and reproductive behaviour. In the absence of government family planning programs until 1997 modern contraception was the main determinant of the decline and tubal ligation, the preferred method. The modernization process augmented socioeconomic inequality which, in turn, drives different reproductive strategies and productive opportunities. In 2006 42% of the women 15-19 years-old at the Wealth Index's bottom 20% were married as opposed to 5% at the top 20%. Despite the emergence of a 'new middle class' the average schooling years of those aged 25 years in the bottom 20% was 7.4 years in 2011 as compared to 13 years among the richest 20%. While the country still faces the demands of a transitional society, population ageing tacks on post-transitional needs. Public policies are crucial to face these challenges but considering the Brazilian decentralization context is central to grasp their potential and outcomes. Questions stemming from these issues set a collaborative research agenda whose outline closes the presentation.
Friday, October 11th 2013
Presentation of icddr,b research activities on urban health and early marriage in Bangladesh (Seminars and lectures)
Nahid Kamal, MEASURE Evaluation, University of North Carolina
University of Southampton 58/2097
Friday, October 11th 2013
3pm
The 2013 Bangladesh Urban Health Survey is a multi-partner project funded by USAID and UKaid. It is a nationally representative survey using a sample of roughly 54,000 households. The aim of the survey is to highlight the health inequalities between slum and non-slum dwellers in urban Bangladesh. The survey seeks to provide estimates for health indicators like under-five mortality and maternal healthcare utilization in slum and non-slum domains. The survey findings will help policy makers and donors to identify those who are most vulnerable to adverse health outcomes in urban settings and to effectively address their needs.
Early Marriage in Bangladesh: Not as Early as it Appears - Using Matlab demographic surveillance data maintained by the icddr,b, this study aims to assess if misreporting of age at marriage could be contributing to the persistence of early marriage and early childbearing in the country. In the sample of 1800 ever married women, more than half underreported their age at marriage. On average, reported age at marriage was two years lower than the actual age. Misreporting of age at marriage has implications for age at first birth. The study concludes that the actual rates of teenage marriage and teenage pregnancy in Bangladesh may be much lower than the levels reported in Demographic and Health Surveys.
Thursday, October 3rd 2013
Accuracy and bias in coherent mortality forecasting for subpopulations based on sex and state: applications to European countries and Australian states (Seminars and lectures)
Heather Booth, Australian National University
University of Southampton 58/1007
Thursday, October 3rd 2013
12pm
This is a joint CPC and Care Life Cycle (CLC) seminar
When mortality forecasts for subpopulations are treated as independent, historic relationships among subpopulations may not be reflected in the forecasts. The product-ratio method of coherent forecasting (Hyndman, Booth and Yasmeen, Demography, 2013) takes account of the relationships among subpopulations based on a single criterion such as sex or state. The coherent forecasts have been shown to improve overall accuracy and to equalise accuracy across subpopulations. Bias is largely unchanged, but is homogenised across subpopulations. The paper compares the accuracy of mortality forecasts when the subpopulations are based on sex and state. The product-ratio method is applied to male and female populations of a group of n states, producing mortality forecasts for 2n subpopulations defined by sex and state. Two forecasts per subpopulation are made: the first set are sex-coherent forecasts for each country, while the second set are country-coherent forecasts for each sex. The accuracy of the two sets of forecasts are compared. Examples include four Nordic countries (Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland), three constituents of the UK (England & Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland) and four states of Australia. Implications for forecasting are discussed.
Wednesday, September 25th 2013
Partnerships and sexual behaviour in rural South Africa in the era of HIV treatment (Seminars and lectures)
Nuala McGrath, University of Southampton
University of Southampton 58/1007
Wednesday, September 25th 2013
3pm
Diagnosed HIV-positive people form a large sub-population in South Africa, one that will continue to increase due to the availability of public antiretroviral therapy (ART). HIV treatment can profoundly influence relationships, sexuality and sexual behaviour although it is not yet clear to what extent ART will impact on sexual behaviour and HIV transmission. There is therefore a pressing need to monitor trends in sexual risk behaviours. To date few studies have examined the impact of treatment on sexual behaviour patterns in African populations. My programme of research funded by the Wellcome Trust, aims to investigate the relationships between partnership, cohabitation, sexual behaviours and HIV risk in South Africa; and, to measure the impact of ART on these factors. In South Africa, a complex set of historical, political, social, cultural and economic processes have resulted in high levels of migration, union instability, extra-marital births, concurrent relationships and HIV prevalence. My research project uses 10 years of longitudinal population-based data on sexual behaviour, partnership and HIV, complimented by new data collection in migrant partners and an ART clinical cohort.
Friday, September 20th 2013
The Malawi Schooling and Adolescent Study: Key Findings 2007-2011 (Seminars and lectures)
Christine Kelly, Population Council
University of Southampton 58/2097
Friday, September 20th 2013
3pm
The Malawi Schooling and Adolescent Study (MSAS) is a longitudinal study designed and administered by the Population Council, in conjunction with local research partners, since 2007. It aims to identify critical aspects of school quality that put adolescents who face the dual challenges of poverty and HIV/AIDS on a safer, healthier, and more productive path to adulthood. The MSAS baseline sample comprised 2,650 male and female adolescents aged 14-16 in January 2007; two-thirds of participants were attending primary grades 4-8 when first interviewed and the remainder were not enrolled in school. Respondents were resident in Balaka and Machinga, two contiguous districts in the Southern region of the country characterized by comparatively early marriage and high HIV prevalence.
I will discuss key findings from the first five rounds of the MSAS, using data collected yearly from 2007-2011. These analyses explore relationships between school absenteeism and menstruation, gender and learning retention, adolescent pregnancy and educational outcomes, and schooling and sexually transmitted infection status, among other topics. I will also present results from methodological work assessing the validity of self-reported sexual behavior data.
Thursday, August 8th 2013
Partnership patterns in the United States and across Europe: which matters more - education or country? (Seminars and lectures)
Brienna Perelli-Harris and Mark Lyons-Amos, University of Southampton
University of Southampton 58/1009
Thursday, August 8th 2013
3pm
Previous studies have found an association between education and individual aspects of union formation, such as prevalence of cohabitation, entrance into marriage or cohabitation, and divorce. However, little is known about the relationship between education and holistic partnership patterns that involve multiple transitions. Here we use latent class growth analysis to compare the educational distribution of partnership patterns in the United States and 14 countries in Europe. Latent class growth curves show how women can change their relationship status (never partnered, cohabiting, married after cohabiting, directly married, or separated) between the ages of 15-45. Using statistical tests, we find that 8 classes best fit the data. We then use multinomial logit models to determine whether education is associated with the 8 latent classes. Our results indicate an association between education and classes showing the postponement of marriage in all countries, but a less consistent association between education and classes reflecting long-term cohabitation and union dissolution. More importantly, however, we find that country of residence explains more of the variation in class membership than education, and that the role of country relative to education is becoming more pronounced over time. Although education appears to be important for determining the timing of marriage, the increasing variation in behavior between countries has become more essential for understanding partnership patterns.
Thursday, June 27th 2013
Education and cohabitation in Britain: return to traditional patterns? (Seminars and lectures)
Maire Ni Bhrolchain, University of Southampton
University of Southampton 58/1009
Thursday, June 27th 2013
3pm
Cohabitation is sometimes thought of as being inversely associated with education, but in Britain a more complex picture emerges. Educational group differences in cohabitation vary by age, by time period, by cohort, and by indicator used. Well educated women pioneered cohabitation in Britain in the 1970s and 1980s. Over time, however, the less well educated caught up and have now overtaken the best educated at younger ages. But the principal difference by education currently is largely in timing--that is, the less well educated start cohabiting earlier than the best educated. In Britain, educational differentials in cohabitation appear to be reinstating long standing social patterns in the level and timing of marriage. Taking partnerships as a whole, social differentials have been fairly stable. Despite rapid recent change, there is, thus, much continuity with the past.
Thursday, June 20th 2013
Care for Older People and Migrant Labour (Seminars and lectures)
Isabel Shutes, London School of Economics
University of Southampton, 58/1007
Thursday, June 20th 2013
1pm
Migrant labour has increasingly played a role in the provision of care for older people in the UK (Cangiano et al., 2009) and in other European countries (Bettio et al., 2006; Leon, 2010; Osterle and Hammer, 2007). These countries have exhibited varying forms of marketisation to both the public and familial provision of care (Shutes and Chiatti, 2012). The presentation examines the position of migrant labour within the provision of care for older people in England. It looks at the extent to which migrant workers are concentrated in particular sectors, settings and types of care work. Drawing on qualitative interviews with migrant care workers, it examines these workers' experiences of the conditions of care work in the different settings in which care for older people is provided. The presentation considers the implications of the conditions of care work, and the social divisions of care labour (including divisions based on citizenship), for the analysis of care systems.
Friday, June 14th 2013
Why still marry? The role of feelings in the marriage choices of young adults (Seminars and lectures)
Francesco Billari, University of Oxford
The Dome, New Register House
Friday, June 14th 2013
12.45-3pm
TBC
Friday, May 17th 2013
Interdependence In European families (Seminars and lectures)
Pearl Dykstra, Rotterdam University
University of Southampton 58/1009
Friday, May 17th 2013
3pm
Life course theorists have emphasized the need to recognize that people's lives are linked to others around them (Elder, 1994). Family members are 'fellow life travellers', people with whom individuals travel through life as if in a convoy. In families, a great deal of learning occurs, and members function as significant others from whom cues are taken and whose reactions are integral to decisions people make. Family members serve as resources available during times of need, but they are also recipients of help and care. Other life course scholars, particularly in Europe, have also emphasized that where people live affects how lives unfold (Mayer, 2009). Political systems, educational systems, labour market arrangements, housing markets, laws, entitlements, and social services in the country of residence contour the life course and structure interdependence. This presentation connects these two theoretical strands: the notions of 'linked lives' and 'lives in context'. It will address the dialectical interaction between (a) individual behaviour and choices (b) family practices and (c) policy contexts. The concept of interdependence, which emphasizes the dynamic interplay between being embedded in a meso context of interconnected family ties and living in a macro context of policy arrangements will be elaborated. Examples from research on intergenerational family ties will serve to illustrate the usefulness of the concept of interdependence in studying families.
Friday, May 10th 2013
Family life courses and later life health (Seminars and lectures)
Emily Grundy, University of Cambridge
The Dome, New Register House
Friday, May 10th 2013
12.45-3pm
TBC
Thursday, May 2nd 2013
The escalator region hypothesis two decades on: a review and critique (Seminars and lectures)
Tony Champion, Newcastle University
University of Southampton 58/1065
Thursday, May 2nd 2013
1pm
The aim is to see how well Tony Fielding's (1989, 1992) 'escalator region' hypothesis has stood the test of time. The original model comprised three components: people stepping onto the escalator early in their working lives by moving to SE England, riding the escalator to benefit from the faster career progression there and finally stepping off at retirement or in late working age having achieved their goals and now wishing to enjoy the rewards. I start by briefly reviewing subsequent studies by Fielding himself and others and then present the results of 3 pieces of my own work using the same source as Fielding, the ONS Longitudinal Study (LS) of linked census microdata records 1971-2001.
One of the 3 studies focuses on the final, stepping-off component, tracing what happened to LS members who moved to SE England between 1966 and 1971 and finding that most of those who had left the SE by 2001 had done so by 1981 and seem to have followed a similar social mobility trajectory as those who stayed. The second test relates to the first two components and points out that not everyone managed to gain from stepping onto the escalator, with a hard core experiencing downward mobility. The third study (undertaken with colleagues at the ESRC's Spatial Economics Research Centre and now nearing completion) is primarily aimed at discovering whether any of the other major agglomerations in England comes close to rivalling London as an escalator, using an urban rather than regional geography and leading to results that raise, among others, the question as to how much of any upward mobility by in-migrants occurred at the time of the move as opposed to resulting from time spent on the escalator after the move.
Associated Downloads
/docs/old/Tony Champion ER Updated Powerpoint.ppt
/docs/old/How_far_do_Englands_second_order_cities_emulate_London_as_human_capital_escalators.pdf
Wednesday, April 24th 2013
The Second Demographic Transition theory 25 years on: predictions, interpretations and controversies. (Seminars and lectures)
Ron Lesthaeghe, Population Studies Center, Belgium
The Dome, New Register House
Wednesday, April 24th 2013
10.30am-3.30pm
TBC
Tuesday, April 23rd 2013
Quality assurance in the census - with a focus on demographic outputs. (Seminars and lectures)
Celia McIntyre, National Records of Scotland
School 1, St Salvator's Quad, University of St Andrews
Tuesday, April 23rd 2013
2pm-4pm
TBC
Tuesday, April 23rd 2013
Is the 2nd Demographic Transition just a North-West European idiosyncrasy? (Seminars and lectures)
Ron Lesthaeghe, Population Studies Center, Belgium
School 1, St Salvator's Quad, University of St Andrews
Tuesday, April 23rd 2013
2pm-4pm
TBC
Thursday, April 4th 2013
Overview of key demographic statistics and latest results (Seminars and lectures)
National Records of Scotland
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, April 4th 2013
12.30-2.00pm
The presentation will cover key areas of interest for population researchers:
-Vital Events
-Population and Migration
-Household estimates
-Beyond 2011
Thursday, March 21st 2013
The convergence of completed fertility for migrant generations (Seminars and lectures)
Ben Wilson, London School of Economics
University of Southampton 58/1009
Thursday, March 21st 2013
3pm
Previous research has attempted to test migrant fertility convergence, but has failed to define this concept in detail, or develop an agreed methodology. This may explain why the literature on convergence remains fragmented, with a confusing array of competing hypotheses and explanations. After reviewing alternative definitions of convergence, this paper compares convergence (towards native fertility levels) within, between, and across migrant generations. Unlike much previous research, completed fertility is used, which allows particular hypotheses to be isolated, and avoids the results being confounded due to birth timing differentials. Completed fertility is estimated using recently released data for the UK, and the analysis makes use of negative binomial regression models. In aggregate, the results show evidence of convergence between, within, and across generations, thereby supporting the adaptation hypothesis. However, analysis by ancestral origin shows that evidence of convergence is highly dependent the definition of convergence that is used. For the cohorts of UK women analysed here, this is most notable for women from Bangladesh, New Zealand, Canada, Australia and the USA. However, there is fairly strong evidence of adaptation for women from Ireland and Jamaica, and of cultural entrenchment for South Asian migrants. These conclusions remain unchanged after considering social characteristics (i.e. comparing to a more similar the native benchmark), but the results for men show noticeably differences, particularly for first generation adult migrants.
Thursday, March 21st 2013
Fiscal Revenues and Commitment in Immigration Amnesties (Seminars and lectures)
Giuseppe Russo, Universita di Salerno and Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance
University of Southampton, 58/1041
Thursday, March 21st 2013
4pm
This is a joint CPC and Economics seminar
Reasons to grant immigration amnesties include the intention to reduce
the weight of the informal sector and the attempt to identify employers
of undocumented workers. However, it is incontestable that potential
fiscal gains are important: tax revenues are crucial in all kinds
of amnesties. Nevertheless, over the last 30 years 24% of applications
have been rejected. It is still unexplained why governments accept this
loss of fiscal base. We argue that applying for amnesty is basically self-incrimination,
and that immigration-averse governments have an incentive
to exploit the applications to identify and expel illegal workers. In our
Nash equilibrium only applicants with the highest income are granted
amnesty, and the poorest immigrants do not apply. Thus, fiscal revenues
are sub-optimal and amnesties are an inefficient way to make illegal workers
come forward.
Thursday, March 7th 2013
Changing Attitudes towards Marriage, Cohabitation, and Non-marital Childbearing in Eastern and Western Germany (Seminars and lectures)
Andreas Klarner, University of Rostock
University of Southampton 58/2097
Thursday, March 7th 2013
3pm
Germany, with its differences between east and west, is a special case regarding the diffusion of more diverse, non-traditional family patterns and different underlying motives and social norms. During socialist times until 1989 non-marital childbearing was socially more accepted in the GDR than in the western, capitalist FRG, and non-marital childbearing was more widespread in the GDR than in the FRG. Even today there are still significant and persisting differences, e.g., couples in eastern Germany are less likely to be married than in western Germany when the first child is born, and they are more likely to remain unmarried after family formation. In order to address different social norms about non-traditional family arrangements we use qualitative focus group discussions. We conducted sixteen focus groups with male and female respondents from different social strata in eastern and western Germany in 2012. Each focus group lasted ca. 90 minutes and respondents discussed issues such as the meaning of marriage, stigmatization of non-marital childbirths etc. In this talk I will present results from these focus groups, which will give insights to general social norms about marriage, non-marital childbearing, and cohabitation.
Friday, March 1st 2013
Active Ageing in CIS Countries: Semantics, Challenges, and Responses (Seminars and lectures)
Alexandre Sidorenko, European Centre for Social Welfare Policy and Research
University of Southampton 58/1009
Friday, March 1st 2013
3pm
This is a joint CPC and Centre for Research on Ageing seminar
The twelve countries of the former Soviet Union constitute a unique geo-political group. These countries are different in many aspects: demographic, economic, and cultural, among others. Yet they share with each other a common political and social past. Consequently, they are facing similar, but not necessarily identical, challenges of transition, including the demographic transition.
In many CIS countries, the notion of "active ageing" has a negative connotation: it is associated with the term "accelerated ageing". The latter term is understood to be an individual living a life under harsh living conditions, which, in turn, leads to a premature ageing at both individual and societal level.
While semantics is distinctive, the policy measures on ageing in the CIS countries are compatible with the major international policy frameworks. In spite of political uncertainties, lack of societal consensus and financial instability, the CIS countries in the same spirit as the European Year 2012 of Active Ageing and Solidarity between Generations, have initiated sectoral programmes towards enhancing employment of older workers, promoting participation of older people in the society and supporting their health and independent living.
Associated Downloads
Thursday, January 31st 2013
Active Ageing Index 2012: Results for 27 EU Member States (Seminars and lectures)
Asghar Zaidi, Centre for Research on Ageing / CPC, University of Southampton
University of Southampton 58/1009
Thursday, January 31st 2013
1pm
A joint Centre for Research on Ageing (CRA), CPC and Care Life Cycle (CLC) seminar.
'Active Ageing Index' is a research project by the European Commission's DG for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion together with the UN Economic Commission for Europe, and the European Centre Vienna, within the framework of the 2012 European Year for Active Ageing and Solidarity between Generations and during the 10th anniversary of the 2nd World Assembly on Ageing. The project aims to provide policymakers with a new tool (namely: the Active Ageing Index, AAI) that will highlight various areas for policy interventions across European countries in relation to promoting active and healthy ageing in its multifaceted ways. The AAI makes use of a dashboard of indicators, organised under four different domains: Employment of older workers; Social activity and participation of older people; Independent and autonomous living of older persons; and Capacity and age-friendly enabling environment for active and healthy ageing. In effect, it shows the extent to which older people have and can realise their potential with respect to employment, health, independent and self-reliant living and other unpaid family, social and cultural contributions to the society.The AAI will be available online and it has been designed as a comparative tool tracking progress over time. Thus, the Index aims to help shape future research and policy agendas and influence how existing large-scale comparative data-sets can be further developed to address the impact of population ageing by following the policy discourse of active ageing and solidarity between generations. The coverage of the AAI will also be extended in the near future to the member states of the UNECE that are not part of the EU27.
To undertake this project in the most rigorous manner, the UNECE and the European Commission worked with a team of advisors. Advisors are distinguished international experts in active ageing and intergenerational relationships from UNECE, European Commission, OECD and academia as well as from EUROSTAT and the national statistical agencies, as well as representatives from policymaking bodies of national governments and civil society. The Expert Group and the three project partners have worked together to obtain transparent numerical results for 27 EU countries and other UNECE member States by the end of 2012. The work has also benefitted from discussions of the preliminary AAI results at various high level international events, such as the World Demographic and Ageing Forum (August 2012) and the UNECE Ministerial Conference on Ageing in Vienna (September 2012). Also, in the future, with progress in data availability and further improvements in concept and methodology, the AAI will continue to make improvements in its scope and country coverage.
The work reported at this CRA/CPC/CLC seminar will present the results for 27 EU member States on individual active ageing indicators, which have been aggregated into a gender-specific index. The presentation will also describe the methodology used and the essential insights drawn from the discussions on conceptual considerations of incorporating the life course perspective and prospective ageing. Most notably, the discussion will also seek to identify future areas of research work to be pursued at ageing/gerontology division of School of Social Sciences, in the area of active and healthy ageing.
Note: This research was undertaken by the research team at European Centre Vienna, in collaboration with the UNECE and the European Commission. Coordinated by Asghar Zaidi, Professor of International Social Policy, Centre for Research on Ageing/ ESRC Centre for Population Change, Social Sciences, University of Southampton, UK.
Wednesday, January 23rd 2013
Understanding social networks at the Centre for Population Change (Seminars and lectures)
Scott Tindall, CPC and University of Edinburgh
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Wednesday, January 23rd 2013
12.30pm
TBC
Thursday, January 17th 2013
First steps from a micro towards a multi-level approach in demography (Seminars and lectures)
Sabine Zinn, NEPS (National Educational Panel Study), University of Bamberg
University of Southampton 58/2097
Thursday, January 17th 2013
3pm
A joint CPC and Care Life Cycle (CLC) seminar.
To realistically describe individual behavior, demographic microsimulation has to consider the effect of inter-individual interaction. For example, in the majority of cases the decision to have children depends not only on the woman, but also on the potential father, and presumably additionally on the social network of both. Individual interaction patterns are usually ignored within demographic microsimulations. The only type of inter-individual linkage that has been considered in microsimulation models so far is demographic kinship. However, when modeling kin at this level mostly very simplifying and therefore distorting assumptions are put. For example, in nearly all cases characteristics of members of kin groups are stated to be uncorrelated, which is an assumption that is simply wrong. No general modeling or simulation technique exists that accounts for correlation between linked lives in a microsimulation. To give an example: many microsimulation models incorporate a marriage market to perform mate-matching. However, after a couple has been matched, the subsequent modeling and simulation of the individuals forming the couple is not clear: in the literature neither a stochastic model of the joint behavior of paired individuals is described, nor related simulation algorithms are discussed.In this talk I propose a way to extend a continuous-time microsimulation model to tackle this shortcoming. I introduce a simulation model and related simulation techniques to account for interdependencies between the life-courses of spouses of (heterosexual) partnerships. That is, I restrict my consideration to binary linkages. The construction of interaction networks comprising more than two individuals is straightforward from a pure technical point of view: binary links between all interacting individuals make up a complete graph mapping an interaction network. I propose to model couple behavior by considering both spouses of a pair jointly. The capability of the novel microsimulation is illustrated using a simplified example that aims at forecasting the contemporary Dutch population. Here I analyze partnership stability and the individual propensity to quit smoking, considering dual- and single-smoker couples.
Thursday, December 6th 2012
Single Motherhood and Child Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Life Course Perspective (Seminars and lectures)
Shelley Clark, McGill University, Canada
University of Southampton 58/4121
Thursday, December 6th 2012
13.15pm
This is a joint Global Health Population, Poverty and Policy (GHP3) and Centre for Population Change (CPC) seminar.
Much of Shelley's research examines how adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa make key transitions to adulthood in the midst of an on-going HIV/AIDS epidemic. In particular, her work has focused on how the transition into marriage shapes the risks of HIV/AIDS among young women in sub-Saharan Africa. She finds that for adolescent girls in many African countries, marriage does not provide a safe haven, showing instead that married adolescent girls are acutely vulnerable with respect to HIV. Additional research demonstrates how the process of searching for and finding a suitable spouse places both adolescent boys and girls at considerable risk. Through her current collaborative project with colleagues in Kenya, Burkina Faso, and South Africa, she is exploring the implications of single motherhood on women's poverty and children's health over the life course. Her findings have been published in over 20 articles in leading journals, such as Demography, Social Forces, and Journal of Marriage and Family, and presented to policy makers at influential international organizations, including the World Bank, WHO, UNFPA/UNICEF, and the Population Council.Friday, November 30th 2012
'Activity and engagement effects on ageing cognition' and 'Statistical methods for computer experiments' (Seminars and lectures)
Carol Holland and Alexis Boukouvalas, Aston Research Centre for Healthy Ageing
University of Southampton 58/4121
Friday, November 30th 2012
12.45pm
This is a joint Care Life Cycle, Centre for Research on Ageing, and Centre for Population Change seminar.
Dr Carol Holland, Director of ARCHA, will present on 'Activity and engagement effects on ageing cognition'. Abstract: Aston Research Centre for Healthy Ageing was set up to bring together Aston scientists across disciplines to work together on challenges in ageing research, based on the premise that we will only make further progress when we work together, applying a range of expertise in a complementary fashion. ARCHA's aims furthermore include working with policy makers, health service, community and business to have a real impact on older adults' lives, and specifically to include older adults in both research and impact planning. This talk will introduce ARCHA and a summary of how it all fits together. Given the centrality of cognition to successful ageing, for example, in terms of being able to plan and compensate for other functional losses, or in terms of predicting frailty and loss of independence, the talk will then review recent advances in prevention and rehabilitation of such losses. We will then summarise two ARCHA studies that aim to use these insights to work on predicting outcomes of physical, social and intellectual engagement interventions or behaviours on outcome quality of life and health indices.Dr Alexis Boukouvalas, Research Fellow at ARCHA, will present on 'Statistical methods for computer experiments'.Abstract: In this talk, we describe the application of statistical methods on the analysis of computer models. There is a large literature on computer experiments for deterministic models and we describe how it can be extended to stochastic systems. We motivate our methodology by tackling the problem of calibrating a stochastic traffic simulation model. Utilising fast surrogate models, known as emulators, we minimise the number of simulator runs required and speed-up the analysis. We describe heteroscedastic emulators where the simulator response is assumed to be normally distributed but the variance is allowed to depend on the inputs. We present a model-based experimental strategy to optimally learn the parameters of a heteroscedastic emulator. For cases where the normality assumption is too restrictive, we present the quantile emulator where quantiles of the response are directly modelled.
We conclude by demonstrating the utilisation of the emulators in a calibration analysis of a stochastic traffic simulator model. Using an iterative design approach, we show how the parameters that lead to plausible simulator output are progressively better identified.
Wednesday, November 28th 2012
Geographical context and fertility in Britain (Seminars and lectures)
Francesca Fiori, Elspeth Graham and Zhiqiang Feng, CPC and University of St Andrews
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Wednesday, November 28th 2012
12.30pm
TBC
Monday, November 26th 2012
Housing, horses, movement and mortality; child loss in Scotland, Ireland and England 1891-1911 (Seminars and lectures)
Eilidh Garrett, University of Cambridge and University of St Andrews
St Andrews University Irvine Lecture Theatre
Monday, November 26th 2012
4pm
This is a joint CPC/Scottish Longitudinal Study seminar. The 1911 censuses of England and Wales, Scotland and Ireland all included questions on fertility and child loss. Until recently the individual responses given to these questions were only available for Ireland. This paper will discuss work undertaken on the censuses and street directories of the 1901-1911 decade for the city of Belfast looking at the relationship between housing, the proximity of health hazards, such as stables, and infant mortality. One of the questions investigated was whether the movement of the population of married couples into and around the city may distort our understanding of the interactions between hazards and health. The paper will examine our findings for Belfast, and will outline how we propose to extend this work to build on our previous research on the towns of Kilmarnock in Scotland and Ipswich in England.
Thursday, November 15th 2012
Beating the odds: family poverty, family instability and children's adjustment, evidence from the Millenium Cohort Study (Seminars and lectures)
Ingrid Schoon, Department of Quantitative Social Science, Institute of Education
University of Southampton 58/1007
Thursday, November 15th 2012
3pm
The paper will examine the factors and processes that promote adjustment of young children, especially those growing up in circumstances of family poverty and instability. Using data from the first three sweeps of the Millennium Cohort Study (undertaken at child ages 9 months, 3 years and 5 years), it will begin by outlining the levels of economic hardship (equivalised net household income less than 60% of national median income) faced by young children in contemporary Britain, and the nature and stability of the family settings over the three waves of observation. We then assess the association of these factors with indicators of children's cognitive development (directly assessed using the British Ability Scales) and emotional/behavioural adjustment (carer-rated using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire) at age 5 years. In the next step we examine cumulative risk exposure, taking into account a number of interlinked risks (i.e. low education, employment status, housing conditions, parental mental health) and assess the role of potential protective factors and processes reducing the negative effects of specific and cumulative risk exposure for young children. The experience of early and cumulative risk exposure significantly undermines the cognitive and behavioural adjustment of children at age 5. Protective factors, reducing the negative risk effects of specific as well as cumulative disadvantage include warm and supportive parent-child interactions, use of childcare, as well as support from and interactions with a wider social network. Implications of our findings for policy makers are discussed.
Wednesday, October 24th 2012
Labour market segmentation in the Swedish welfare state: Evidence of a migrant division of labour? (Seminars and lectures)
Robert Macpherson, University of St Andrews and Umea University
Room 1/G/8, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Wednesday, October 24th 2012
12.30pm
While a vast body of literature concerning migrant and ethnic divisions of labour is evident in the UK and the US, in Sweden where increasing immigrant numbers have coincided with their decreasing economic integration, less attention has been given to the particular sectors in which they work. Inspired by the work of Wills et al. (2010) who argue that there is a new migrant division of labour in London as a result of increased immigration and occupational polarisation, this study aims to address the following research questions: 1) is there a migrant division of labour in Sweden? 2) has the division of labour changed as a result of recession? 3) is there a geography to the division of labour that is evident in terms of urban versus rural labour markets? and, 4) is there evidence to suggest that the geography has changed over time? Using individual register data for the working-age population during three different economic periods, the analysis suggest that there is a division of labour based along immigrant groups with a geographical distinction between urban and rural areas. However, while long-term structural processes appear to have changed this, the impacts of the recent recession are less clear.
Thursday, October 18th 2012
British Indians & Indian Americans. Drawing parallels between second generation return migrants to India in their motivations to return (Seminars and lectures)
Priya Khambhaita, University of Southampton
University of Southampton 58/4121
Thursday, October 18th 2012
3pm
UK emigration has received relatively little consideration when compared to the amount of research conducted on immigration (Sriskandarajah and Drew 2006). This paper is an evaluation of existing literature on second generation American and British Indians in terms of how youth and childhood experiences fare in narratives of motivations to return to India. How might narratives of motivation for British Indians relate to their Indian American counterparts? What parallels can be drawn from the youth and childhood experiences of British Indians and the experiences of American Indians in their narratives of motivations to return? Academic discussion of second generation Indians in America is in the early stages. However, this is the first paper to highlight second generation return migration amongst Indians in the British context and offer some indication on how return American and British Indians might correlate. Many of the experiences American Indians draw upon when making sense of their motivations for returning to India are also experienced by British Indians. These include being involved with Indian cultural activities from childhood and having a greater interaction during early adulthood with people from the same cultural background. There are also differences however between the two groups. These relate to a lack of direct familial links that East African British Indians have to India as a result of being thrice migrants. In light of this, the paper highlights an important need for further empirical research on British Indian second generation returnees, especially when considering the complexity of relations with India amongst thrice migrants.
Associated Downloads
/docs/old/P_Khambhaita_second_generation_return_migration_to_India.pdf
Tuesday, June 19th 2012
Work on families at the Office for National Statistics (Seminars and lectures)
Karen Gask, Office for National Statistics (ONS)
University of Southampton 58/1009
Tuesday, June 19th 2012
3pm
The families team at the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is charged with meeting the needs of users of statistics on families and households. This seminar describes the work of the team over the past year, including:
• the development of an annual set of statistics on families
• the successful assessment of the statistics against the code of practice for official statistics, and
• smaller projects meeting specific customer needs.
Planned future work on families at ONS will also be described and attendees are invited to comment on what they see as the priorities for work in this area.
In April 2011, the Office for National Statistics published a new set of statistics on families in the UK between 2001 and 2010, and this was updated for 2011 in January 2012. This seminar describes the key trends in the statistics on families by family type. Types of family include married couple families, cohabiting couple families and lone parent families. Specific analyses such as lone parents and young adults living with parents are also discussed.
The intended future work programme of the families team is also discussed, including planning analysis on families statistics from the 2011 Census.
Users of ONS' families statistics are encouraged to provide feedback on recent and future work.
Associated Downloads
Friday, June 15th 2012
An introduction to some studies of long-term mortality changes and health impact of environmental conditions in East Asia (Seminars and lectures)
Zhongwei Zhao, Australian National University
National Records of Scotland (Edinburgh)
Friday, June 15th 2012
TBC
Thursday, May 17th 2012
Living abroad and returning home: young Indian migrants in London and in Gujarat (Seminars and lectures)
Mario Rutten, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, University of Amsterdam
University of Southampton 58/1007
Thursday, May 17th 2012
2pm-4pm
This special seminar will start with a screening of Prof Mario Rutten's anthropological documentary on Indian young people living in London. The title of the documentary is 'Living Like a Common Man'. Following the documentary from 3pm-4pm, Prof Rutten will deliver a presentation about the research, including a questions and answers session. The abstract for Prof. Rutten's seminar is as follows: Based on long-term research in London and Gujarat, I examine the contradictory migration experiences of Indian middle-class youth who moved abroad on a student or temporary work visa, and who recently returned to their home village in Gujarat. Like many of their peers in developing countries, they dreamed of going to the West to earn money, to study and to get experience in a foreign country to improve their prospects at home. Once abroad, however, they ended up in low-status, semi-skilled jobs to cover their expenses, and lived in small guesthouses crammed with newly arrived migrants. Part of these temporary migrants manage to extend their visa and to apply for permanent residency, while others return to their home region after several years. Why did these youngsters leave India and go abroad, and what do they and their families get by moving abroad? Why do some of them come back to stay in India and what are their experiences after returning to their home village?
Associated Downloads
Friday, May 11th 2012
Has parental influence on young adults declined? A longitudinal study of families and religion (Seminars and lectures)
Vern Bengtson, University of California
University of Southampton 58/4121
Friday, May 11th 2012
12pm
A joint CPC, Care Life Cycle (CLC) and Centre for Research on Ageing (CRA) seminar
Thursday, April 19th 2012
Economic recession and fertility: past evidence and recent trends (Seminars and lectures)
Tomas Sobotka, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) / Austrian Academy of Sciences and Wittgenstein Centre for Demography & Global Human Capital
New Register House, Edinburgh
Thursday, April 19th 2012
11am
Wednesday, April 18th 2012
Is policy succeeding? Gender differences in national pensions in Korea (Seminars and lectures)
MiYoung An, Kookmin University
University of Southampton 58/4121
Wednesday, April 18th 2012
11am
A joint CPC, Care Life Cycle (CLC) and Centre for Research on Ageing (CRA) seminar
Friday, April 13th 2012
Migration and climate change: an agent-based approach (Seminars and lectures)
Dominic Kniveton, University of Sussex
University of Southampton 02/2043
Friday, April 13th 2012
1pm
A joint CPC and Care Life Cycle seminar.
Tuesday, March 27th 2012
Men on becoming fathers: preliminary findings from qualitative research with fathers of two (Seminars and lectures)
Sharani Osborn, Centre for Research on Families and Relationships, University of Edinburgh
Room 1/G/9, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Tuesday, March 27th 2012
12.30pm
Thursday, March 22nd 2012
People with two places of residence: who are they? why should we care? (Seminars and lectures)
Laurent Toulemon, Institut national d'etudes demographiques (INED)
University of Southampton, 58/1009
Thursday, March 22nd 2012
3pm
Usually, and especially for census purposes, people are considered to be members of one and only one household. Nevertheless, some people have more than one usual residence. I will discuss first how to define these situations of "commuting between households", and how to identify those commuters (period of time considered, definition of a usual residence). In France many surveys conducted by the national institute of statistics (INSEE) include a standard list of residents including all household members who spend at least one month per year in a residence, with some questions on their other places of residence. In survey samples, the prevalence is around 7% of people in private households; 10% of households include at least one person who has a second residence.
Taking double counting into account, the prevalence at the individual level is between 3% and 4%, with a peak frequency at 20 years of age and a secondary mode at ages 55-75, but without major differences between men and women. The family situations related to multiple residence are very diverse, and are strongly associated with age. I will give some examples of family situations for which we not only need to correct the weights, but also to consider all the places of residence in order to describe the current situation accurately: children whose parents are separated, adults living alone.
Finally, I will show that many of our usual statistics become problematic when we want to include multiple residences explicitly, at the individual level or for some other social units (siblings, couple, household, etc.). Going back to the issue of data collection, I will present a new survey carried out within the 2011 French census that includes questions on multiple residence similar to those usually included in household surveys.
Associated Downloads
Friday, March 16th 2012
Thoughts on the Unfinished Agenda for Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights (Seminars and lectures)
Sara Seims, Population & Reproductive Health David and Lucile Packard Foundation
University of Southampton 58/1009
Friday, March 16th 2012
3pm
A joint CPC and Social Statistics & Demography seminar.
2014 will mark the end of the 20 year Programme of Action of the Cairo International Conference on Population and Development. In 2015, new development cooperation goals will be set as the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) time frame also expires. During this period, there has been tangible progress in the sexual and reproductive health and rights (SRHR) of women and men but this advancement has been greater for some aspects of SRHR than for others . In addition, there remain serious inequities in SRHR around the world. As donors and developing country governments gear up to set goals for the post-MDG era, what should be the priorities for SRHR? Sara Seims, a veteran of the field and currently Senior Advisor for Population and Reproductive Health of the Packard Foundation, will share her thoughts on this question and propose some different ways in which donors and developing country governments can structure their aid agreements to improve the chances that these new priorities will be taken seriously.
Monday, March 12th 2012
The relatively high fertility of the English-speaking countries (Seminars and lectures)
Peter McDonald, Australian National University
New Register House, Edinburgh
Monday, March 12th 2012
11am
TBC
Friday, March 9th 2012
The Pinch: How the baby boomers took their children's future and why they should give it back (Seminars and lectures)
Rt.Hon. David Willetts MP
University of Southampton 37/Senate room
Friday, March 9th 2012
12.30pm
In his recent book the Rt.Hon Davit Willetts MP examines how demographic changes over the past 50 years have impacted on inter-generational relations. He argues that the baby boomer generation (born in the period 1646-1965), through their sheer demographic size, have dominated the cultural, economic and political landscape and that this dominance risks being at the expense of their children. As the large cohort of baby boomers enter retirement and are replaced by a smaller working age population, this group will be "taxed more, work longer hours for less money, have lower social mobility and live in a degraded environment in order to pay for their parents quality of life". Thus he proposes that the baby boomers have "stolen their children's future" and puts forward a range of solutions as to how they can "give it back".
David's lecture will be of interest to anyone interested in public policy and fairness between the generations.
Thursday, March 8th 2012
Gifts, loans and intergenerational support towards the costs of living independently in young adulthood (Seminars and lectures)
Sue Heath, Morgan Centre for the Study of Relationships and Personal Life, University of Manchester
University of Southampton, 58/1007
Thursday, March 8th 2012
1pm
Amidst rising housing costs and restricted employment opportunities in the UK, younger generations are increasingly dependent on their families for material and financial support to offset the costs of living independently, including (but not confined to) their housing costs. Such exchanges involve complex intergenerational negotiations relating to status obligations and responsibilities, indebtedness and gratitude, dependency and independence, fairness and equality. This paper explores these issues from the perspective of a group of single young adults aged 25 to 34 who were involved in CPC-funded research on their housing pathways (based on qualitative interviews conducted in 2010). The paper will outline the nature of these exchanges and will then explore how these forms of assistance are understood by those in receipt of them, focusing in particular on whether they are viewed as loans or as gifts, and with what perceived consequences. We conclude that the uneasy co-existence of gratitude and discomfort experienced by many of our research participants was managed but by no means resolved by strategies which sought to blur the boundaries between gifts and loans.
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Tuesday, March 6th 2012
Obesity in developing countries: what do we learn from 244 Demographic and Health Surveys? (Seminars and lectures)
Marc Suhrcke, University of East Anglia
University of Southampton 58/1039
Tuesday, March 6th 2012
3pm
A joint CPC and Population Health University Strategic Research Group seminar.
Obesity and overweight are spreading fast in developing countries, and has reached world record levels in some of them. Precisely capturing the size, patterns and trends of the problem has, however, been severely hampered by the lack of comparable micro data in low and middle income countries. To overcome this deficit we use the wealth of 244 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for 56 countries over the years 1991-2008. The DHS data has so far primarily been used to measure traditional health problems in developing countries, e.g. HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and other nutritional deficiencies. We use the data to establish selected stylized facts about overweight and obesity and to examine a number of widely held notions that have hiterto typically not been submitted to empirical scrutiny.
Wednesday, February 29th 2012
Migration in the context of global environmental change: threat or opportunity (Seminars and lectures)
Allan Findlay, University of St Andrews, Jakub Bijak, University of Southampton and Richard Black, University of Sussex
University of St Andrews
Wednesday, February 29th 2012
12.30pm
TBC
Friday, February 24th 2012
Sustainability and adequacy of pensions in EU countries. A cross-national perspective (Seminars and lectures)
Asghar Zaidi, European Centre for Social Welfare Policy & Research
University of Southampton 58/3017
Friday, February 24th 2012
11am
A joint CPC and Centre for Research on Ageing Seminar.
Although shocks to global economic systems caused by the financial near meltdowns in 2008 and 2009 have receded, the effects will remain with us for decades to come. National economies are now saddled with structural debts, partly as a result of policy choices made over the boom years and partly in pursuing (the unavoidable) expansionary policies during the recession. The effect of unemployment as well as the cutbacks required for budgetary consolidations on the vulnerable groups of the society, particularly children and pensioners but also people with disabilities, could run deep. Such questions as were asked by Paul Gauguin at the turn of 19th century - D'ou Venons Nous / Que Sommes Nous / Ou Allons Nous (Where Do We Come From? What Are We? Where Are We Going?) - are particularly pertinent for EU's policymakers in the current times. It is now the time to carefully frame the answers to his third question - our future direction, and the welfare of our pensioners in the 2040s, 2050s and onwards. While recognising that each of the European countries will have its own approaches, there is a need to ensure that its processes are based on sound economic, financial and fiscal fundamentals. And also, the pension system elements are properly planned and executed, having learned useful lessons from the crisis. A review of fundamentals is also essential especially in making a fresh assessment of the social objectives aimed at in the pension policy, and to re-examine whether, and how, recent policy reforms compromise the pension income adequacy of future retirees, and what policies can potentially improve both the fiscal sustainability of public pension systems and the adequacy of pension incomes for future pensioners.
The shape and design of future pension policy, and how that policy will be influenced by choices made now in response to the current fiscal crisis and impending population ageing challenges will impede the welfare of future pensioners, will be discussed in this presentation. The presentation will come in five parts. Part 1 will set the context by highlighting sustainability challenges arising from population ageing, and the financial, fiscal, and economic crises. Part 2 will analyse the aggregate impact of pension reforms, using the indicator 'Benefit Ratio' (average public pensions as a ratio of average economy-wide wage), as calculated by the Working Group on Ageing of the EU's Economic Policy Committee, for the period 2007-2060. Part 3 will extend the discussion on pension income adequacy by examining how pension reforms have reshaped the structure of pension systems across EU countries. These impact?of?pension reforms results are derived from the simulations for stylised workers, undertaken by OECD in 2009. The next part (Part 4) will present micro evidence on changes in the entitlement of public pension income during the period 2006?2046. The indicator in use is the net 'Theoretical Replacement Rate', as provided by the Indicators Sub?Group of the EU's Social Protection Committee. Like OECD calculations, it is calculated for stylised workers, approximating impact of pension reforms for the income entitlement of future retirees. Part 5's concluding summary will discuss policy challenges that EU countries face going forward, with a focus on pension policy challenges as well as the fiscal and labour market policy.
Associated Downloads
Thursday, January 26th 2012
Who Cares for Whom? Rural Ageing, Migration and Networks of Informal Care (Seminars and lectures)
Alasdair Rutherford, University of Stirling
University of Southampton 58/1065
Thursday, January 26th 2012
3pm
A joint CPC and Third Sector Research Centre seminar.
Care for older people is a complex phenomenon. With an ageing population, it is also an area of pressing policy concern. In this Centre For Population Change (CPC) project we are examining how older people and their families make decisions about informal care, including housing, location, roles, and formal care choices. The project uses both quantitative and qualitative data. In this paper we argue that the complexity of care relationships, and the endogeneity of decision making in health care, social care, informal care and household formation, pose significant problems for the analysis of care choices. The analysis of caring relationships as a network, rather than as one-to-one, provides an opportunity to examine some of these issues. We illustrate an example of building care networks using an existing quantitative data source, and describe the characteristics of these informal care networks. The nature of the relationships in caring networks is then explored further using qualitative data gathered from two fieldwork areas in the UK, where both informal carers and carees were interviewed. We show that there are significant issues for informal care around migration, housing, information, expectations, and the social norms of caring.
Associated Downloads
Thursday, January 19th 2012
Female education, labour markets and fertility outcomes: tempo and quantum of first births in Belgium between 1960 and 2000 (Seminars and lectures)
Karel Neels, University of Antwerp
University of Southampton 58/4121
Thursday, January 19th 2012
2pm
A joint CPC and Social Statistics & Demography seminar.
After two decades of low fertility throughout the 1980s and the 1990s, the period TFR in Belgium increased from 1.56 children in 1995 to 1.85 in 2008. This recent recovery of the period TFR coincides with a slowing down in the pace of fertility postponement, but also with a marked decline in unemployment rates since the mid 1990s. In this paper we combine contextual data on economic growth and labour market conditions with individual-level maternity history data from the 2001 census to document the tempo-quantum interplay in Belgian fertility trends between 1960 and 2000. More specifically, we illustrate how rising female educational attainment and labour force participation in a context of limited economic and employment growth between the early 1970s and 1995 gave rise to excess labour supply and an unprecedented increase in unemployment rates. The results indicate that labour market conditions are more strongly correlated to variation in first birth hazards than more general economic indicators such as GDP-growth. Rising unemployment negatively affects first birth hazards at younger ages and this effect is found to be more articulated among higher educated women. The results also provide empirical support for recuperation of fertility after age 30 net of prevailing labour market conditions, particularly among women with tertiary education. Such recuperation effects account for the larger degree of stability in (lagged) cohort fertility indicators during the period considered. The results for Belgium suggest that access to stable employment in economically adverse times is an important condition to reduce period variation in fertility levels over and above policies that ease the work-family conflict. In an epilogue the Belgian results are put in perspective by considering female labour force participation, labour market conditions and fertility trends for a larger set of European countries.
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Friday, December 9th 2011
Estimating Population Change from Repeated Surveys (Seminars and lectures)
Yves Berger, University of Southampton
University of Southampton 58/1007
Friday, December 9th 2011
3pm
Measuring change over time is a central problem for many users of social, economic and demographic data and is of interest in many areas of economics and social sciences. Smith et al. (2003 JRSS-D) recognised that assessing change is one of the most important challenges in survey statistics. The primary interest of many users is often in changes or trends from one time period to another. A common problem is to compare two cross-sectional estimates for the same study variable taken on two different waves or occasions, and to judge whether the observed change is statistically significant. This involves the estimation of the sampling variance of the estimator of change. Estimation of this variance would be relatively straightforward if cross-sectional estimates were based upon the same sample. Unfortunately, cross-sectional estimates are calculated from not completely overlapping samples of units, because of rotations used in repeated surveys. We show how multivariate regression could be used to estimate the variance of change between cross-sectional estimates.
Tuesday, December 6th 2011
Embodying the 'good' migrant: the imagination and production of the ideal Latvian worker (Seminars and lectures)
David McCollum, University of St Andrews
Room 1/G/9, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Tuesday, December 6th 2011
12:30pm
Powerful actors such as employers, recruitment agencies and policymakers exert considerable influence on the nature of labour migration flows. This paper focuses on the characteristics that these actors judge to constitute the ideal migrant worker and how these interpretations shape the recruitment practices that collectively form the observable patterns of labour migration flows. The focus of this analysis is on Latvia, a country that has experienced a dramatic recent turnaround in its economic fortunes and that now has a very high emigration rate. The findings suggest that employers, recruitment agencies and policymakers hold precise expectations of who and what the ideal migrant worker is. These imaginings shape the decisions made about the types of workers that are sought after and the recruitment strategies that are used to source them. These results are of theoretical significance as they shed light on how international labour migration flows are structured by powerful actors’ recruitment practices, which in turn are determined by their conceptions of the ideal (migrant) worker.
Friday, December 2nd 2011
Update on the Scottish Longitudinal Study (Seminars and lectures)
Chris Dibben, University of St Andrews
National Records of Scotland (Edinburgh) The Dome
Friday, December 2nd 2011
1pm
TBC
Thursday, November 17th 2011
Future British mortality prospects (Seminars and lectures)
Michael Murphy, LSE Health/Department of Social Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science
University of Southampton 58/1009
Thursday, November 17th 2011
3pm
At present, verall age standardised mortality rates (both sexes combined) are improving at a historically unprecedented rate of about 2.5% per annum in England and Wales, but estimates are heavily influenced by patterns at ages where deaths are concentrated. The latest official ONS/GAD projections assume that mortality improvement will decline by more than 50% to a value of 1.2% per annum in about 25 years time (ONS, 2011).
There are divergent views about how mortality trends may evolve. For example, Olshansky et al (2005, p. 1142) argue that as a result of the substantial rise in the prevalence of obesity and its life-shortening complications such as diabetes, life expectancy at birth and at older ages could level off or even decline in the first half of the 21st century. On the other hand, Christensen et al (2009, p. 1139) state that most babies born today in high life expectancy countries will live at least 100 years if trends over the past two centuries continues through the 21st century.
In 2005, just over 50% of deaths in England and Wales occurred between ages 65 and 85, 56% for men and 45% for women, people born in the period 1925 to 1945, birth cohorts frequently referred to as the ?Golden generations? Who have been identified as having experienced especially high rates of improvement in mortality (Dunnell, 2008). Current British official mortality projections assume that these cohorts will continue to enjoy such advantages in years to come up to the highest ages but that as these cohorts are replaced in the main mortality age groups by less favoured cohorts, rates of mortality improvement will decline to the much lower level in decades to come (ONS, 2011). The magnitude of such effects and possible reasons for and against the expectation that they will are persist in years to come include: differences in smoking patterns; better diet and environmental conditions during and after the Second World War; differing birth rates; the introduction in the late 1940s of the Welfare State; and medical advances.
An Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model is used to estimate the contribution of smoking-related mortality to cohort changes in adult mortality in Britain since 1950. Lung cancer and overall mortality can be satisfactorily modelled by a cohort relative risk and fixed age pattern. The results of the model suggest that smoking by itself can account for a substantial fraction of cohort mortality change for those born around the first half of the Twentieth century. In particular, smoking provides an explanation for the higher than average mortality improvement of the ?Golden generations?. These results are compared with those of the Peto-Lopez and Preston-Glei-Wilmoth models that also estimate the contribution of smoking-related to overall mortality using different approaches.
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Thursday, November 17th 2011
Migration, Mobility and its Impact on Socio-Demographic Processes: Moving on and moving up: The implications of socio-spatial mobility for union stability/dissolution (Seminars and lectures)
Marina Shapira, University of Edinburgh
Room 1/G/9, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Thursday, November 17th 2011
12:30pm
TBC
Wednesday, November 2nd 2011
Multistate survival analysis with R (Seminars and lectures)
Frans Willekens, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)
University of Southampton 58/1009
Wednesday, November 2nd 2011
4pm
A joint CPC and Care Life Cycle seminar.
In multistate models for survival analysis, the life history is represented by a sequence of states and transitions between states. The history may be described in discrete or continuous time. In this presentation I consider histories in continuous time. The movements between states are governed by origin-destination specific transition intensities that vary with age and depend on current personal attributes, past experiences and contextual factors. Multistate models are used for explanation and prediction.
In the seminar I present the R package Biograph. The package was designed to help explore life history data (using descriptive statistics and graphics) and to facilitate the estimation of multistate models. It uses the graphical capabilities of R to visualize life histories of individuals and cohorts.
Biograph facilitates teaching multistate survival analysis. For instance, it has a utility to retrieve for subjects in the sample the observed life histories and the different types of episodes (open, closed; episodes ending in the event of interest, censored episodes) that are considered in the likelihood function. The display of life histories in a Lexis diagram is a powerful method for explaining multistate survival analysis from demographic and process points of view.
Biograph makes the estimation of multistate models more accessible. It prepares input data for packages for survival analysis (survival, eha) and specialized packages for multistate modelling (mvna, mstate and msm). Several packages for multistate modelling were recently presented in a special issue of Journal of Statistical Software (Vol, 38, Issue 1, January 2011) (www.jstatsoft.org). Biograph predicts life-course trajectories using the concepts of synthetic cohort and synthetic biography, which are also central in the life table.
The package is fully described in "Biograph. Multistate analysis of life histories with R" (forthcoming in the Use R! Series, Springer).
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Thursday, October 20th 2011
A lifecourse perspective on the role of ethnicity in internal migration in young adulthood in Britain. (Seminars and lectures)
Nissa Finney, Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research, University of Manchester
University of Southampton 58/1009
Thursday, October 20th 2011
3pm
Political concerns about ethnic integration and community cohesion over the last decade have reignited studies of ethnic geographies and processes of local ethnic group population change, particularly internal migration. This presentation will review the findings of this body of work on ethnic differences in residential mobility within Britain; present findings of analyses that examine the role of ethnicity in internal migration from a lifecourse perspective; and conclude by proposing theoretical and political priorities for this field and methodological challenges in bringing these priorities to fruition.
The presentation addresses the following questions: Are there ethnic differences in levels and geographies of residential mobility? Are key life events in young adulthood (study, partnership, children) differently associated with migration across ethnic groups? How do migration and housing experiences vary for Higher Education students of different ethnic groups? The presentation uses 2001 census microdata and Special Migration Statistics, commissioned Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data (2009-10) and early findings from pilot qualitative interviews.
The results show that ethnic differences in residential mobility exist and persist, after accounting for the demographic and socio-economic composition of ethnic groups. Geographical differences are also found, though there are commonalities in the geographical processes of migration (for example, suburbanisation). Migration is differently associated with partnership and study for White, Asian and Black young adults indicating differing residential norms in the transition to adulthood. For students, for example, the 'norm' of the mobile student applies only to White undergraduates.
Associated Downloads
Friday, September 16th 2011
Family networks and mobility - experiences from research on Swedish register data. (Seminars and lectures)
Gunnar Malmberg, University of Umea
Room 1/G/9, Ladywell House, Edinburgh
Friday, September 16th 2011
12:30pm
TBC
Thursday, September 1st 2011
Demographic Estimates and Projections Using Multiple Data Sources: A Bayesian Approach (Seminars and lectures)
John Bryant, Statistics New Zealand
University of Southampton 58/1065
Thursday, September 1st 2011
3pm
CPC Seminar Series: Our presentation describes a project to develop and implement a new Bayesian framework for population estimation and projection. At the core of the framework is a demographic account giving a complete description of births, deaths, migration, and population counts over the estimation and projection periods.
Sub-national population estimates and projections guide billions of dollars of public and private expenditure. Users of estimates and projections expect increasingly high levels of accuracy and detail. An obvious way of meeting these expectations is to use administrative data alongside more traditional data sources such as the census.
However, incorporating multiple data sources into population estimation and projection methods