Scotland, migration and the referendum: Data and analysis for an informed debate

Two major projects analysing migration to and from Scotland have been launched today (18 September) by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) to inform the referendum debate.

The projects bring together the expertise of academics from the Centre for Population Change (CPC) and the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford and together will provide the most comprehensive look at internal and international migration between Scotland, the UK and the rest of the world in recent times.

The work undertaken by CPC considers how Scotland differs from the rest of the UK in terms of migration patterns, and in public attitudes towards immigration. Results so far have shown that migration is a stronger determinant of future population change in Scotland than the rest of the UK and that the general public in Scotland has a more tolerant view of migration. Within this, the work examines the potential economic effects of constitutional change, particularly for the income of Scottish Higher Education Institutions, finding that changes to immigration laws could severely affect funding.

CPC's Professor Allan Findlay said: "The work we are doing at CPC reveals that Scotland is distinct from the UK as a whole: migration is a more important determinant of future population change and the general public are less hostile to immigration. When we consider Scottish Higher Education Institutions for example, we see they are reliant on international students for a larger proportion of their income than institutions in the rest of the UK.

"Because of this, policy rhetoric towards immigration differs greatly between Westminster and Holyrood, and our work aims to explore these complex relations between potential Scottish constitutional change and migration."

The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford has developed a suite of analysis looking at international migration to and from Scotland covering details such as the size and make-up of the migrant population of Scotland, the fiscal impacts of immigration to Scotland and analysis of the challenges of regulating international migration in the context of independence.

Dr Scott Blinder, Acting Director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford said: "International migration has played a key role in shaping Scotland. Inflows of students to Scotland's universities, workers to Scotland's industries and asylum seekers and refugees who have sought protection have helped to create the modern nation we know, while outflows of migrants have taken Scottish culture to the wider world and helped build bridges with other nations.

"The implications of the referendum for international migration to and from Scotland are complex and unclear, but this project helps to explain what we do and don't know so that Scottish people can make as informed a choice as possible."

The project was formally launched at an event at the Museum of Scotland on 18 September. This involved a short introduction from CPC and Migration Observatory academics leading the project, including a discussion of initial research findings, a preview some of the work to be published ahead of the referendum and other important questions about Scotland's role as a country that both sends and receives migrants.

Read a blog post by David McCollum: 'Constitutional change and immigration in Scotland'

Further information and data are available at:

CPC Scottish independence research

CPC Briefing Paper 10
Patterns and perceptions of migration, is Scotland distinct from the rest of the UK?

CPC Briefing Paper 13
European Union and International Students in Scottish Higher Education Institutions

The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford - Scotland materials

Posted 17/09/2013 11:01