Ukraine had one of the lowest birth rates on the planet. And then a war broke out.

Marking a year since the invasion of Ukraine, CPC member Brienna Perelli-Harris, Professor of Demography at the University of Southampton, contributed to a news article for NPR on fertility rates in Ukraine. "Ukraine had one of the lowest birth rates on the planet. And then a war broke out," explains Professor Perelli-Harris who studies fertility and family. She says Ukrainian demographers are projecting the fertility rate could fall as low as 0.55 in 2023, though official statistics are not available.

To keep a population steady, research shows it's necessary to have an average of about 2.1 babies per family — known as a replacement rate. In Ukraine, fertility rates have remained under that threshold since 1990. Over the last two decades, the rate has often dropped below what experts call a "very low" fertility rate of 1.3, when a population begins to shrink at an ever-increasing rate. In January 2021, a year before Russia's full-scale invasion, the fertility rate was 1.16, according to national statistics.

Low birth rates are happening across Europe, part of modernisation as family dynamics change and women decide to postpone, and in some cases, not have children. But unlike other European countries, childlessness in Ukraine is not a driving factor. Professor Perelli-Harris, who did her Ph.D. on Ukraine's low fertility rates in the 2000s, found only about 5% of the adult population was childless.

Instead, it was far more common for Ukrainians to have only one child. "The real question was between having a second or even a third child," says Perelli-Harris. She has researched the impact of Russia's incursion in Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014, which led to an even greater threat to fertility: violent conflict and a lack of security.

In 2013, there were 494,521 babies born in Ukraine. By 2021, that number had basically been cut in half, according to Ukrainian Health Ministry statistics. In focus groups in eastern Ukraine over the last several years, Professor Perelli-Harris found that in addition to feeling uprooted and unsafe, families talked about increasing political and social uncertainty, concerns over rising utility prices and other household expenses, and how expensive it was to have children. The war also helped cement the one-child norm that had been happening in Ukraine for years.

Professor Brienna Perelli-Harris and Dr Michael Head from the University of Southampton also appeared on BBC Radio Solent discussing how their work with Dr Ken Brackstone has been used to support Ukrainian refugees. They covered some of their findings from a Health Needs Survey of Ukrainian refugees and displaced persons around access to healthcare, and the use and dissemination of their research. Speaking about how they adapted methods and study designs used in the Covid-19 pandemic, they explained their desire to provide useful data for the humanitarian emergency in Ukraine.

You can listen to the recording below:



Further reading

'Ukraine's birth rate was already dangerously low. Then war broke out' (NPR news)

'Depopulation in Ukraine: Low fertility, high mortality and emigration' (CPC Policy Briefing 70)

'The triple burden of depopulation in Ukraine: examining perceptions of population decline' (Vienna Yearbook of Population Research)

'Internal displacement and subjective well-being: The case of Ukraine' (CPC Working Paper 99)

Read the report on findings around access to healthcare by Michael Head, Ken Brackstone, Ksenia Crane, Inna Walker and Brienna Perelli-Harris.

Read the CPC report on demographic considerations, including accommodation and household composition by Orsola Torrisi, Brienna Perelli-Harris, Michael Head and Ken Brackstone.

Posted 27/02/2023 10:09