World Population Day – 11 July 2024

World Population Day, observed annually on 11 July, is centred this year on the theme 'To leave no one behind, count everyone'. This theme underscores the critical issue of the underrepresentation of marginalised communities in data, profoundly affecting their well-being and societal inclusion. The UN Secretary-General António Guterres states:

“As the theme of this year’s World Population Day reminds us, investing in data collection is important to understanding problems, tailoring solutions, and driving progress.”

At the ESRC Centre for Population Change (CPC) and Connecting Generations (CG), our mission is to shed light on the experiences of diverse societal groups, striving towards a more equitable society. Our members are exploring novel ways of analysing and integrating data sources to capture more individual and group experiences than ever before.

Professor Jane Falkingham CBE, Director of the ESRC Centre for Population Change and PI ESRC Connecting Generations, comments: "The work at CPC and CG exemplifies a commitment to inclusive data representation and equitable policymaking, aligning closely with the UN's call ‘to leave no one behind, count everyone’.

“From examining ethnic disparities in pension protection to understanding experiences of displacement in conflict zones, our work aims to ensure that more diverse needs are recognised and considered by policymakers.

“By addressing demographic challenges, advocating for marginalised communities, and innovating in data collection and analysis, our research contributes to building a more inclusive and resilient global society.

“As we mark World Population Day 2024, I hope you enjoy reading about just some of our areas of research contributing to improved data collection and understanding population changes and challenges.”

Advancing population statistics

Population and migration statistics are crucial for decisions and policies at all societal levels and must adapt to changing needs. Dr Jason Hilton is leading a team of CPC-CG researchers who are supporting the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) with the application of Bayesian statistical modelling and demographic rate estimation, to improve the ONS Dynamic Population Model. This approach is transforming population estimation. The model not only incorporates the net effect of births, deaths, and migration to estimate the population in 331 local authorities in England and Wales, but also draws on other administrative data sources such as NHS patient data, student numbers, and taxes and benefits. By combining these sources and accounting for biases robust population estimates and uncertainties are produced. This new approach shifts from simple counting to using statistical models, ensuring more detailed local data and tailored policy responses.

CPC-CG member Professor Ann Berrington is also collaborating with the ONS, National Records of Scotland, and the Northern Ireland Statistical Research Agency to enhance National Population Projections (NPPs) with fertility research. These projections inform planning in fiscal policy, health, education, and pensions. Professor Jakub Bijak's insights on international migration were also integral to the ONS 'National Population Projections: 2021-based interim' released in January 2024.

Ageing populations and unpaid care

With a view to leaving no one behind, research led by Professor Maria Evandrou is uncovering the complexities of unpaid caregiving in society, focusing on mid-life caregiving challenges. The findings shed light on the increasing reliance on informal carers, a group very often hidden in society, to inform policies addressing work-life balance and extended working lives.

Additionally, research led by Dr Jason Hilton is examining how demographic changes in fertility and mortality are reshaping family dynamics and affecting kin availability for caregiving. The research highlights the widening gap in unpaid care provision across generations. The ESRC Connecting Generations Kinship Model, employing advanced population projection methods, forecasts challenges arising from improved mortality rates alongside lower fertility among the 1960s baby boom cohorts. This research underscores the importance of robust data collection to anticipate the future care needs of an ageing society.

Novel data collection through genetics and genealogy

CG members Professor Melinda Mills and Professor Ridhi Kashyap from the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science integrate genetics, genealogy, demography, and sociology into their research. Their interdisciplinary approach links genetic data with digital and historical records to explore generational dynamics from the 19th century to today. This innovative method allows for the study of genealogies and intergenerational transmission of ages at birth, marriage and educational and occupational transitions, family composition and mortality. Further, Professor Kashyap's Digital Gender Gaps project uses social media data to address global disparities in internet access, contributing to the UN's objective of inclusive data collection across diverse societal experiences.

Financial resilience in later life

To ensure equitable access to financial resources and support systems for all communities, promoting inclusive socio-economic development, CPC-CG member Professor Athina Vlachantoni has been leading research examining ethnic disparities in pension protection among mid-life and older individuals from minority ethnic communities in the UK. This research informs policies to address inequalities in financial resilience, highlighting disparities in physical, mental, and financial resources.

Collecting everyday lived experiences

In addition to analysing the lived experiences of different generations in the UK through the Connecting Generations-funded Resolution Foundation Intergenerational Audit, CG has also supported a directive within the Mass Observation Project. This directive invites 'Observers' to share their experiences and reflections on coping during the current cost-of-living crisis. Specifically, it seeks responses that explore how the crisis has impacted intergenerational support networks, encompassing material, practical, and emotional assistance exchanged among family, friends, neighbours, and community members across younger and older generations. These responses contribute valuable insights to our research projects, enriching our findings with perspectives that traditional data collection methods may overlook.

Menopause support in the workplace

Addressing overlooked health challenges that particularly impact women, a research team led by Professor Maria Evandrou published groundbreaking research in 2021 on menopause-related changes in employment. The findings show that severe menopausal symptoms increase the likelihood of exiting employment or reducing working hours, highlighting menopause as a barrier to equality and inclusion in the workplace. The findings have since informed workplace policies recommended by the European Menopause and Andropause Society, have been cited in evidence to the UK Parliament, and discussed in policy roundtables on how best to support menopausal individuals in employment.

Counting the human cost of conflict

Addressing the profound impacts of conflict and displacement on populations and advocating for comprehensive data to inform equitable humanitarian responses and policies, Professor Brienna Perelli-Harris and colleagues have studied the impact of depopulation on Ukraine and displacement and health needs. Their work, including online focus groups and a Health Needs Survey of Ukrainian refugees, highlights dire consequences like shrinking labour forces and ageing populations. Their findings stress the need for urgent policies supporting displaced Ukrainians with employment, housing, and healthcare.

To monitor Ukraine's internal displacement post-Russia's invasion, Professor Ridhi Kashyap and Professor Melinda Mills developed a novel metric. Combining UN border data with daily Facebook user activity, their approach provided real-time estimates across Ukrainian provinces, leading to revised UN estimates from 1.6 million to 6.5 million displaced by March 2022. Also highlighting urgent humanitarian and policy needs to address long-term demographic repercussions, research led by Professor Hill Kulu projected the demographic impact of Russia’s invasion on Ukraine, forecasting a one-third population decline due to casualties, refugees, and uncertain return scenarios.

Find out more about our research programme.

Further reading

Dynamic population model, improvements to data sources and methodology for local authorities, England and Wales: 2011 to 2022 (ONS)

Admin-based population estimates for local authorities in England and Wales (ONS)

Advising on the ONS Dynamic Population Model (CPC-CG news)

Estimating the 2011 total fertility rate for England & Wales and Scotland using alternative data sources (CPC-CG working paper 106)

National population projections: 2021-based interim (ONS)

Changes in kinship: Implications for the availability of kin to care (CPC-CG Policy Briefing 74)

Updated Digital Gender Gaps website shows real-time gender inequalities in internet access (University of Oxford news)

Digital and computational demography (Research Handbook on Digital Sociology)

Leveraging digital and computational demography for policy insights (Handbook of Computational Social Science for Policy)

Digital Gender Gaps Web Application (Zenodo, Github)

Informing the design of inclusive pensions (CPC-CG news)

Sharing study information on the radio (Awaaz.fm Community Hour)

Building financial resilience for later life (Virtual visual arts exhibition)

Menopausal transition and change in employment: Evidence from the National Child Development Study (Maturitas)

Global consensus recommendations on menopause in the workplace: A European Menopause and Andropause Society (EMAS) position statement (Maturitas)

Shattering the silence about menopause: 12-month progress report (Department for Work and Pensions)

Heather Pasero talks to Professor Jane Falkingham OBE about her research on menopause in the workplace (World Menopause Day podcast)

Depopulation in Ukraine: Low fertility, high mortality and emigration (CPC-CG Policy Briefing 70)

Internal displacement and subjective well-being: The case of Ukraine (CPC Working Paper 99)

Nowcasting daily population displacement in Ukraine through social media advertising data (Population and Development Review)

The war, refugees, and the future of Ukraine’s population (Population, Space and Place)

Posted 09/07/2024 09:13