Kinship dynamics in an ageing society

The ESRC Connecting Generations Kinship Model (CG-Kin) provides new insights into the evolving availability of kin, emphasising the complexities of kinship dynamics in an ageing society.

Over the next four decades, the population aged 80 and over in England and Wales is projected to double, growing from 3.1 million in 2023 to 6.3 million by 2060. This demographic shift highlights a pressing issue: the traditional reliance on family for care in later life is being challenged by changes in fertility and mortality rates.

Research using the CG-Kin model by CPC-CG members Dr Joe Butterick, Professor Maria Evandrou, Professor Jane Falkingham and Dr Jason Hilton reveals that improved mortality rates mean people are more likely to have multiple generations of kin alive simultaneously. Currently, individuals in mid-life (45-64 years) often have adult children, grandchildren, siblings, and older parents alive concurrently. However, the lower fertility rates of those born in the 1960s suggest they will have fewer adult children to rely on by the time they reach 80. This poses significant questions about the future of care provision, as the traditional family support network may become strained.

Key findings of the research indicate that while the number of adult children and grandchildren available to care for older adults will decrease, the presence of multiple generations will become more common. This trend has given rise to the "double sandwich" generation", increasingly caught between the demands of their parents and the needs of their adult children, who often rely on them for childcare to participate in the workforce.

Dr Butterick comments: "Looking ahead, the proportion of childless older women is set to rise significantly, with projections showing an increase from 256,000 in 2030 to 656,000 in 2055. This increase in childlessness, coupled with fewer siblings and extended kin, suggests that the traditional reliance on family for elder care may no longer be sustainable. These findings highlight the need for policy interventions to address the growing care gap, potentially through expanded formal care services, new technologies, and home adaptations to support both formal and informal caregivers."

Read the full briefing: Changes in kinship: Implications for the availability of kin to care (CPC-CG Policy Briefing 74)

Posted 26/07/2024 13:02