Ageing places face growing demographic divides

CPC-CG member Dr David McCollum has been exploring population sustainability and geographical inequalities amid the challenges of an ageing population.

Dr McCollum's research has found that there is a growing demographic divide across the UK. Inequalities between wealthier and poorer regions are widening, with remote working and migration patterns reinforcing rather than reducing these disparities.

In the UK context, the population ageing process started earliest in Scotland and has been the focus of Scottish policy attention for almost two decades. The most recent Census showed that Scotland’s population is at a record high of almost 5.5 million. However, its population is rapidly ageing, it is fully reliant on migration for demographic stability, and almost a third of its local authorities are already experiencing population decline.

Scotland’s experiences of, and responses to demographic challenges can therefore provide lessons for other parts of the UK which are expected to follow a similar trajectory.

The fastest-ageing places are often scenic rural and coastal areas. These are desirable places to live for all age groups, but they struggle to maintain a balanced population. A thriving community depends on stable and suitably well-paid jobs and affordable housing, both of which are often in short supply. The prevalence of low-paid seasonal work, alongside second homes and buy-to-let properties, makes it harder for younger, lower-income residents to stay. As a result, these areas face an uncertain demographic future.

Incomers (mainly via internal rather than international migration) are often older and wealthier than the existing population. Remote and hybrid working, once seen as a means to spread economic activity more evenly, has instead widened inequalities. The ability to work from home is most common among higher-income, urban-based workers, keeping economic advantages concentrated in already prosperous areas. While some remote workers have relocated to rural and coastal regions, they are typically older and wealthier, further displacing younger, lower-income residents and reshaping local communities.

Fewer younger people in such areas also creates workforce challenges in providing care and essential services for the growing older population. Without efforts to attract and retain younger workers, these areas risk severe shortages in vital support.

The Scottish Government has long recognised migration as essential for demographic stability and economic growth. In recent years, it has actively promoted policies to attract people to Scotland. Since 2021, it has championed a place-based approach to demography, emphasising the varied and complex patterns of population change at the local level, with migration playing a central role.

Dr McCollum comments: "Without targeted interventions, these trends will intensify spatial inequalities. There needs to be a focus on improving conditions for the majority of the workforce who cannot work from home.

"Policymakers should consider measures to improve job opportunities and infrastructure in struggling areas, discourage the growth of second homes and buy-to-let properties, and introduce a sub-national migration policy to attract workers to demographically challenged regions. This could involve a lower salary threshold under the Points Based System for lower wage regions."

He continues: "Without such measures, wealthier urban areas will continue to thrive while poorer and ageing regions face deepening demographic decline."

Further reading

Population sustainability and geographical inequalities in the context of an ageing population (CPC-CG Policy Briefing 76)

Post-pandemic geographies of working from home: More of the same for spatial inequalities?​ (Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers)

Covid geographies of home and work: privileged (im)mobilities? (People, Place and Policy)

A Scotland for the future: opportunities and challenges of Scotland's changing population (Scottish Government)

The new normal of working from home and implications for spatial inequalities (The International Public Policy Observatory)

Determinants of occupational mobility: the importance of place of work (Regional Studies)

Scotland ‘faces demographic time bomb’ as over-65s outnumber under-15s (The Times)

Home working in borough depends on address (Rugby Observer)

Posted 03/02/2025 11:32