New findings: Childbearing trends by birth order in Britain over three decades

CPC-CG members Professor Hill Kulu, Dr Bernice Kuang, Dr Sarah Christison, and Professor Ann Berrington are shedding new light on one of Britain's most pressing demographic challenges through groundbreaking research into how family-building patterns have evolved across Great Britain over the past three decades.

Their study, the first of its kind to examine long-term fertility changes by birth order across Britain, reveals shifting family dynamics that vary significantly between England & Wales and Scotland. Using census-linked administrative data, the research team tracked childbearing trends from the 1990s through to the present day.

"We wanted to understand not just whether people are having fewer children, but when they're having them and how family formation differs across our nations," explains Professor Kulu. "By looking at birth order, whether it's a first, second, or third child, we can see much more detailed patterns in how families are actually forming."

First-birth rates declined during the 1990s, experienced a modest recovery in the early 2000s, then declined again thereafter. However, this wasn't about families having fewer children overall, it was primarily about timing. Parents were waiting longer to start their families.

For families who did have children, the story becomes more complex. Second- and third-birth rates dropped after the 1990s but then stabilised in the early 21st century. Importantly, the research found that once couples had their first child, the timing between subsequent children remained remarkably consistent, suggesting that decisions about family size, rather than timing, were driving these trends.

The study also revealed differences between Scotland and the rest of Britain. Scottish families showed notably lower rates of second and third births compared to England and Wales.

The research team investigated whether changes in population composition by education and ethnicity could explain these trends, but found they had minimal impact on the overall patterns. They did, however, find rapid declines in first-birth rates among women with lower levels of education.

These insights come at a crucial time, as policymakers across Britain grapple with the implications of declining birth rates, and with the United Nations reporting that one in five people do not expect to have as many children as they want. By understanding how and why fertility differs between regions, the research provides essential evidence for developing targeted policies that support families across all of Britain's nations.

Professor Kulu comments: "Despite Scotland's lower birth rates, the trends have been remarkably similar across Britain, suggesting we're all responding to the same fundamental forces. The real challenge now, particularly for Scotland, is helping families achieve the family sizes they actually want. As people delay starting families, that window becomes narrower, but it's not insurmountable."

Further reading

Long-term fertility trends by birth order in Britain: Comparison between England & Wales and Scotland (Population Studies)

One in five people do not expect to have as many children as they want (Financial Times)
Ann Berrington is quoted in this article: “Whilst some individuals [in the UK] desire to remain child-free, the empirical evidence suggests that there are a significant number who want children, but are currently unable to have them,” said Ann Berrington, professor of demography at the University of Southampton, adding that economic and health factors, or being unable to find the right partner, were among the reasons.

UNFPA State of World Population 2025 report: The Real Fertility Crisis
References research by Ann Berrington and Brienna Perelli-Harris on UK Generations and Gender Survey findings on intergenerational co-residence in the UK, and research co-authored by Ann Berrington on homeownership and the transition to parenthood.

Posted 01/07/2025 13:48