QuantMig recognised by the European Commission as a Horizon 2020 Success Story

Professor Jakub Bijak’s EU-funded QuantMig project has been recognised by the European Commission's Research and Innovation services as a Horizon 2020 success story for research that demonstrates exceptional innovation, visibility, and societal benefit.

Migration has become a central topic of European policy discussions, particularly following the refugee crisis of 2015. The QuantMig project, launched in 2020, aimed to move beyond traditional forecasting models by embracing uncertainty as a core element of migration analysis. Instead of trying to predict exact migration numbers, the team focused on mapping possible scenarios and identifying risks, thus equipping policymakers with better tools for preparing for unexpected events.

“Migration forecasting has often been limited by what we don’t know. QuantMig put that uncertainty front and centre, helping decision makers understand both the gaps in knowledge and the practical steps they can take to mitigate risks,” explains Professor Bijak.

QuantMig developed ways to model migration scenarios, and their impacts on populations and labour forces, across 31 European countries, while also analysing displacement events such as natural disasters or conflicts to improve crisis preparedness.

The consortium brought together seven leading institutions, along with an external Canadian research partner, forming an interdisciplinary team of demographers, economists, statisticians and migration policy experts. Their collaboration resulted in a seamlessly integrated research process where data analysis, scenario development and policy engagement worked hand in hand.

The project’s work resonated beyond academia, influencing discussions within key European agencies such as the EU Agency for Asylum and Frontex. Among its achievements was the creation of a comprehensive European migration hub, providing high-quality, open-access data on migration estimates, policies and scenarios, to inform future research and decision-making.

QuantMig’s findings highlight the importance of better data collection and migration scenario planning. The team hopes their work will inspire future research and policy initiatives to build on their approach, ensuring Europe remains prepared for migration challenges ahead. “Understanding migration isn’t about pinpointing exact numbers; it’s about being ready for what’s possible. We’ve helped lay the groundwork for a more informed and flexible response to future migration trends,” adds Bijak.

The project also published an open-access book, designed to distil complex migration dynamics into an accessible format for policymakers and the public, ensuring their findings are available to the widest possible audience.

“There is one last ingredient to the project’s success,” notes Bijak, “and that is our use of open science. We made everything open by design from the outset, including the final book publication, and it is paying back handsomely.”

Read the full story on the European Commission website: ‘Forecasting the unknown: the future of migration planning’

Posted 03/07/2025 09:14