Commenting on the latest ONS Births in England and Wales release

Professor Jane Falkingham CBE, CPC-CG Director, spoke on BBC Radio 4’s PM programme following the release of new data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which confirmed a continued fall in fertility rates across England and Wales.

The ONS Births in England and Wales: 2024 release reported a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.41 children per woman, a marginal drop from 1.42 in 2023. This is the lowest figure on record for the third year running. While most regions saw further decline, the West Midlands and London recorded slight increases, the first since 2021, with TFRs rising to 1.59 and 1.35 respectively.

The release also showed that the standardised mean age at childbirth rose again in 2024, reaching 31.0 for mothers and 33.9 for fathers. London had the highest average maternal age at 32.5. The sharpest decline in age-specific fertility was among 25 to 29-year-olds, for both mothers and fathers.

Commenting on the figures, Professor Falkingham noted that the UK’s fertility decline mirrors a global trend. She said that while some suggest local issues like housing are behind the trend, international parallels, such as South Korea’s record-low TFR of 0.72, point to wider structural and economic pressures. She identified global cost-of-living increases, delayed childbearing, and shifts in gender roles and employment as major contributing factors.

Professor Falkingham said governments are increasingly concerned about shrinking future workforces, though technological advances like AI may eventually reduce the economic reliance on population growth.



Professor Falkingham was also interviewed by The Guardian for their weekend feature article '"Really transitional moment": what should we do about declining fertility rates?'. In the article, she discussed how we are alive during a transitional period, shifting from a world with high fertility and high mortality to one with low fertility and low mortality. She warned that the implications are structural. We need to reconsider when we start and end work, how we organise the life course, and who provides care. One in five women born in the 1960s had no children, so informal family support is not guaranteed. That puts pressure on already stretched social care systems and raises questions about funding. Professor Falkingham suggested we may see new models of care emerge, such as friendship-based networks or greater use of technology. Japan, for example, is already using robots for home care.

Also speaking on the ONS release, CG Co-Director Professor Melinda Mills was interviewed by the Financial Times for the article 'Birth rate falls to record low in England and Wales', commenting that lower birth rates were “inherently linked to the general trend in postponement of parenthood”. As well as housing and childcare costs, she said uncertainty over employment, gender inequality and difficulties combining work and family life were behind the rise in people delaying having children.

CPC-CG member Dr Bernice Kuang also commented on the ONS release in The Guardian and in an interview on BBC Radio 4's Woman’s Hour. She emphasised that much of the decline reflects postponement of first births rather than a permanent reduction, with the strong two-child norm still prevailing in the UK. Drawing on the ESRC-funded UK Generations and Gender Survey, she highlighted that economic uncertainty, high childcare costs, and housing instability are major barriers for young people considering parenthood.

Dr Kuang noted that the average age at first birth has climbed to around 30, contributing to continued declines in fertility, but predicted a potential rebound if this trend stabilises. She warned that if postponement results in fewer people achieving their desired family size, the average family size could fall further. She also stressed the importance of structural policies to support families, including affordable childcare, housing, and workplace equality, particularly in sharing caregiving responsibilities.

Both Professor Falkingham and Dr Kuang emphasised that while falling fertility has global parallels, the human right to choose whether and when to have children remains central, and policy measures should focus on enabling, rather than constraining, reproductive choices.

Read the full article 'Fertility rate hits record low in England, Scotland and Wales' in The Guardian.

Listen to Dr Kuang's interview on BBC Radio 4's Woman's Hour:



Find out more about our recent research around concerns that many young people are unable to form the families they would like and the contributing societal factors.

Posted 28/08/2025 09:45