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  • Project contributors: Bijak J, Findlay A, Smith P, Forster J, Disney G, Wisniowski A,

    This Project is part of the following research programme/s:

    Population estimation and forecasting


    This project aims to evaluate the various existing approaches to modelling and forecasting of UK international migration flows, based on the literature, overview of official forecasts prepared in other countries, and own empirical analysis. The empirical assessment is done by comparing the results of various forecasting models for selected migration flows against the trends observed in the past. The overarching goal is to assess the uncertainty of different migration forecasting methods.

    The research will contribute to the evidence base in migration research by providing a systematic and up to date methodological overview of academic literature and of official statistical practice of migration modelling and forecasting, strengthened by the empirical comparison of performance of various methods. The work will also provide concrete policy recommendations related to the usefulness of various forecasting approaches for policy-makers, with focus on the role of uncertainty and its appropriate communication to the forecast users.


    Migration is one of the worst predictable elements of the puzzle Population europe website. 2015
    "Migration is one of the worst predictable elements of the puzzle" - Population Europe Inter-Faces video interview with Jakub Bijak.