Projects
QuantMig: Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy
Project contributors: Bijak J, Wahba J, Smith P, Barker E, Di Iasio V, Aristotelous G,
This Project is part of the following research programme/s:
Overview
Migration is complex and uncertain. To be effective, migration policies need to explicitly acknowledge these two features of contemporary mobility. This is especially crucial as migration remains a top policy priority area across Europe, with many policy actions being proposed and implemented for different types of flows on the voluntary-forced migration continuum.
Comprehensive quantitative scenarios offer an excellent analytical tool for exploring different migration futures, as long as they explicitly acknowledge the complexity and uncertainty of the processes they aim to represent. Preparedness for various migration contingencies requires using appropriate analytical tools for addressing the challenges posed by the barely predictable nature of migration flows. Such tools need to be characterised by high levels of both conceptual and technical sophistication, and at the same time, their results need to be easy to comprehend and communicate to facilitate uptake by stakeholders. Drawing on the unique expertise of its consortium members, QuantMig will deliver such tools, providing bespoke solutions for describing, explaining and managing migration.
The project will achieve its overarching aim by advancing the methodology of scenario generation and by furthering the understanding of conceptual foundations of European migration flows. The knowledge base for scenarios will include a comprehensive review of key migration drivers in origin, destination and transit countries, with particular focus on mobility of third-country nationals, various aspects and stages of migrant decision making, and on the characteristics of prospective migrants. Additionally, we will derive a distinctive set of custom-made harmonised statistical estimates of migration flows. We will also develop and apply rigorous and innovative methods for simulating migration flows, describing scenario uncertainty, and providing early warnings.
You can find out more on the research project website here
Publications & Activities
Introduction: Uncertainty and complexity in migration scenarios
International Population Conference 2021 (2021). (Virtual, Hyderabad, India)
Authors: Bijak J,
A timeline of freedom of movement in the European Economic Area
Open Research Europe (2022).
Authors: Barker E,
As Europe builds resilient labour markets, migration can help - but will not be enough
Population Europe (2023).
Authors: Bijak J, Barker E,
Assessing Uncertain Migration Futures - A Typology of the Unknown.
University of Southampton and Danube University Krems. (2020).
Authors: Bijak J, Czaika M,
Asylum seekers' choice of country is mostly driven by personal networks, not economy
Population Europe (2023).
Authors: Di Iasio V, Wahba J,
Black swans and grey rhinos: Migration policy under uncertainty in Migration Policy Practice Journal
International Organization for Migration (IOM) and Eurasylum Ltd (2020).
Authors: Bijak J, Czaika M,
Brexit Uncertainty and UK Migration: Should I Go?
University of Southampton (2021).
Authors: Di Iasio V, Wahba J,
Can one migration model fit all?
Population Europe (2021).
Authors: Barker E, Bijak J,
Can the EU Attract Skills and Talent?
Population Europe (2022).
Authors: Wahba J,
Conceptualisation and Analysis of Migration Uncertainty: Insights from Macroeconomics
University of Southampton (2020).
Authors: Barker E, Bijak J,
Could we have seen it coming? Towards an early warning system for asylum applications in the EU
University of Southampton (2022).
Authors: Barker E, Bijak J,
Could we have seen it coming? Towards an early warning system for asylum applications in the EU
Data for Policy Conference (2024). (London)
Authors: Barker E, Bijak J,
European migration governance in the context of uncertainty
(2023).
Authors: Czaika M, Bohnet H, Zardo F, Bijak J,
Expecting Brexit and UK migration: Should I go?
European Economic Review (2023). 157
Authors: Di Iasio V, Wahba J,
Extending the Integrated Model of European Migration
BSPS Conference 2021 (2021). (Virtual)
Authors: Aristotelous G, Smith P, Bijak J,
Forecasting: theory and practice
International Journal of Forecasting (2022). 38 (3) 705-871
Authors: Petropoulos F, Bijak J, Ellison J, Et A,
High-Migration Events and Future Labour Force in Europe
Population Europe (2023).
Authors: Potancoková M, Marois G, Bijak J,
Illuminating the Uncertainty of Migration
Quetelet Seminar (2021). (Virtual)
Authors: Bijak J, Czaika M, Soto-Nishimura A,
Migration Uncertainty: Feature, not a Bug. Reflections on the crisis in Afghanistan and COVID pandemic
Population Europe (2021).
Authors: Bijak J,
Migration decision-making and its four key dimensions
18th IMISCOE Annual Conference (2021). (Virtual)
Authors: Czaika M, Bijak J, Prike T,
Natives' Attitudes and Immigration Flows to Europe
(2021).
Authors: Di Iasio V, Wahba J,
Navigating uncertainty: Understanding the impact of Brexit on EU migration to the UK
University of Southampton, CPC (2023). Series Number: 71.
Authors: Di Iasio V, Wahba J,
New perspectives for migration foresight and preparedness: Insights from the QuantMig Project
Geneva, Switzerland, Migration Policy Practice, Vol XIII, Number 1, IOM (2024).
Authors: Bijak J, Czaika M, Potancoková M, Vono-de-Vilhena D,
Quantmig Migration Estimates: A New, Harmonised Set of Probabilistic Migration Flow Estimates for Europe, 2009-19
European Population Conference 2024 (2024). (Edinburgh)
Authors: Aristotelous G, Smith P, Bijak J,
Scanning migration horizons
Centre of Migration Research (2023). (University of Warsaw)
Authors: Bijak J,
Seeking asylum in Europe: Where do people go and why?
University of Southampton, CPC (2023). Series Number: 69.
Authors: Wahba J, Di Iasio V,
Strengthening evidence-informed policymaking on migration
(2021).
Authors: Bijak J, Fähnrich B, Leboeuf L, Vono-de-Vilhena D,
The Determinants of Refugees' Destinations: Where do refugees locate within the EU?
Immigration in OECD countries - 12th Annual International Conference (2022). (OECD Conference Centre, Paris)
Authors: Wahba J, Di Iasio V,
The expansion of the European Labour Market
University of Southampton, University of Southampton (2021).
Authors: Barker E,
The future of East-to-West Migration through Automation
29th International Conference Computing in Economics and Finance (2023). (Université Côte d'Azur - Nice, France)
Authors: Barker E,
Uncertainty in Future Migration Flows: Where Does It Come From?
Population Europe (2021).
Authors: Vono-de-Vilhena D, Bijak J,
Uncertainty in Migration Scenarios
(2021).
Authors: Barker E, Bijak J,
White Paper on Migration Uncertainty Towards Foresight and Preparedness
(2023).
Authors: Bijak J, Vono-de-Vilhena D, Potancoková M,
Why Should We Care About Uncertainty in Migration Flows? Reasons and Challenges from an Economics Perspective.
Berlin, Germany, Berlin: Max Planck Society/Population Europe (2022).
Authors: Barker E, Bijak J, Di Iasio V, Wahba J,
Policy Engagement
Professor Jakub Bijak organised joint Quantmig, FUME and Hummingbird event: Future Migration to Europe, a gathering of migration experts and scholars, 26-27 April 2023.
Location: The European Parliament, Brussels
Migration experts gathered to discuss academic challenges and opportunities for forecasting migration, engaging with policymakers and informing decisions for Europe.Contributors: Bijak J,
Data
QuantMig Migration Estimates Explorer
Location: www.quantmig.eu. (2023)
Authors: Aristotelous G, Smith P, Bijak J,
Media
Asylum seekers in Europe: where do people go and why? Economics Observatory. 2023
Blog article by Dr Valentina Di Iasio and Professor Jackie Wahba on their research on asylum seekers.
Hotels and employment aren't major 'pull factors' for refugees - here's what really draws people to move US Today. 2023
Research by Professor Jackie Wahba and Dr Valentina Di Iasio find that asylum seekers are more likely to choose a country where they have existing social networks, rather than for economic reasons.
Hotels and employment aren't major 'pull factors' for refugees - here's what really draws people to move Yahoo News UK. 2023
Research by Professor Jackie Wahba and Dr Valentina Di Iasio find that asylum seekers are more likely to choose a country where they have existing social networks, rather than for economic reasons.
Hotels and employment aren't major 'pull factors' for refugees - here's what really draws people to move Electronic Immigration Network. 2023
Research by Professor Jackie Wahba and Dr Valentina Di Iasio find that asylum seekers are more likely to choose a country where they have existing social networks, rather than for economic reasons.
Hotels and employment aren't major 'pull factors' for refugees - here's what really draws people to move The Conversation. 2023
Research by Professor Jackie Wahba and Dr Valentina Di Iasio find that asylum seekers are more likely to choose a country where they have existing social networks, rather than for economic reasons.
Studie: Krisen könnten Österreich viel Zuzug bescheren (Study: Crises could bring a lot of immigration to Austria) Salzburger Nachrichten. 2023
News article references research by Jakub Bijak - see Population and Policy Brief 39 - High-Migration Events and Future Labour Force in Europe; White Paper on Migration Uncertainty: Towards Foresight and Preparedness.
Viel Zuzug nach Österreich wegen Krisen (A lot of immigration to Austria due to crises) Science.orf.at. 2023
News article references research by Jakub Bijak - see Population and Policy Brief 39 - High-Migration Events and Future Labour Force in Europe; White Paper on Migration Uncertainty: Towards Foresight and Preparedness.
Scenarios for proactive measures and inclusive policies on migration in Europe Newswise. 2023
Policy blog article by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) about recent publications from the Quantmig project, Policy brief - High-Migration Events and Future Labour Force in Europe and the White Paper on Migration Uncertainty: Towards Foresight and Preparedness.
Debunking migration myths: the real reasons people move, and why most migration happens in the global south - podcast The Conversation. 2023
In this podcast, Dr Valentina Di Iasio is interviewed about her research with Jackie Wahba about asylum seekers and their reasons for choosing one country other the other. Their research found that it was more likely to be social networks rather than the economy or the welfare state.
Future Migration to Europe Conference Youtube. 2023
Video of the Quantmig, FUME and Hummingbird event: Future Migration to Europe, a gathering of migration experts and scholars at the European Parliament in Brussels. 26-27 April 2023.
Jakub Bijak and Daniela Vono on science advice in migration policy Science Advice for Policy by European Academies. 2022
Professor Jakub Bijak and Dr Daniela Vono take part in an expert debate on science advice in migration policy.
Professor Jakub Bijak podcast interview with Public Policy, Southampton: Quantmig: Quantifying migration scenarios for better policy Policy Pod, Public Policy Southampton. 2021
University of Southampton Public Policy podcast series interviews Professor Jakub Bijak about his project, Quantmig: Quantifying migration scenarios for better policy.
