• Home
  • » Projects
  • Project contributors: Bijak J, Wahba J, Smith P, Barker E, Di Iasio V, Aristotelous G,

    This Project is part of the following research programme/s:

    Migration and Mobility

    Population estimation and forecasting


    Migration is complex and uncertain. To be effective, migration policies need to explicitly acknowledge these two features of contemporary mobility. This is especially crucial as migration remains a top policy priority area across Europe, with many policy actions being proposed and implemented for different types of flows on the voluntary-forced migration continuum.

    Comprehensive quantitative scenarios offer an excellent analytical tool for exploring different migration futures, as long as they explicitly acknowledge the complexity and uncertainty of the processes they aim to represent. Preparedness for various migration contingencies requires using appropriate analytical tools for addressing the challenges posed by the barely predictable nature of migration flows. Such tools need to be characterised by high levels of both conceptual and technical sophistication, and at the same time, their results need to be easy to comprehend and communicate to facilitate uptake by stakeholders. Drawing on the unique expertise of its consortium members, QuantMig will deliver such tools, providing bespoke solutions for describing, explaining and managing migration.

    The project will achieve its overarching aim by advancing the methodology of scenario generation and by furthering the understanding of conceptual foundations of European migration flows. The knowledge base for scenarios will include a comprehensive review of key migration drivers in origin, destination and transit countries, with particular focus on mobility of third-country nationals, various aspects and stages of migrant decision making, and on the characteristics of prospective migrants. Additionally, we will derive a distinctive set of custom-made harmonised statistical estimates of migration flows. We will also develop and apply rigorous and innovative methods for simulating migration flows, describing scenario uncertainty, and providing early warnings.

    You can find out more on the research project website here

    Publications & Activities

    The Determinants of Refugees' Destinations: Where do refugees locate within the EU?
    Immigration in OECD countries - 12th Annual International Conference (2022). (OECD Conference Centre, Paris)
    Authors: Wahba J, Di Iasio V,

    Illuminating the Uncertainty of Migration
    Quetelet Seminar (2021). (Virtual)
    Authors: Bijak J, Czaika M, Soto-Nishimura A,


    Future Migration to Europe Conference Youtube. 2023
    Video of the Quantmig, FUME and Hummingbird event: Future Migration to Europe, a gathering of migration experts and scholars at the European Parliament in Brussels. 26-27 April 2023.

    Jakub Bijak and Daniela Vono on science advice in migration policy Science Advice for Policy by European Academies. 2022
    Professor Jakub Bijak and Dr Daniela Vono take part in an expert debate on science advice in migration policy.

    Professor Jakub Bijak podcast interview with Public Policy, Southampton: Quantmig: Quantifying migration scenarios for better policy Policy Pod, Public Policy Southampton. 2021
    University of Southampton Public Policy podcast series interviews Professor Jakub Bijak about his project, Quantmig: Quantifying migration scenarios for better policy.