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  • Project contributors: Berrington A, Kulu H, Ellison J, Kuang B, Christison S,

    This Project is part of the following research programme/s:

    Covid-19

    Overview

    There has been much speculation in the media about the likely impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on childbearing - will there be a baby boom or bust? Many different factors affect childbearing decisions, including economic factors, attitudes and beliefs, and the level of gender equality both outside and inside the home. Given the complexity of factors affecting childbearing, it is not surprising that previous predictions of future fertility in the UK have often been wrong. Nevertheless, predicting future numbers of births is important for planning, e.g. for maternity services, schools, and financial commitments through the welfare system. It is therefore useful to consider the potential ways the COVID-19 pandemic could affect childbearing, at least in the short term.

    In this project, we have three aims:
    1) To examine UK fertility trends prior to 2019, to understand what was happening prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
    2) To explore the possible impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on peoples childbearing behaviour and outline a number of possible future scenarios for fertility rates.
    3) To use these scenarios to project the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and the annual number of births for 2021-23.

    Media

    England's Euros success risks baby bust The Telegraph. 2021
    News article in The Telegraph about the impact of the Euros tournament on fertility rates.

    A Disaster For Our Economy! Declining Birth Rates Irk British MPs Albawaba. 2021
    News article quotes research by Centre for Population Change into declining fertility rates.

    Scotland marks lowest level of births in recorded history The Times. 2021
    Professor Hill Kulu quoted in The Times on Scotland's lowest birth rate.

    Deaths outnumber births in Britain for the first time since 1976 Wion. 2021
    News article references research by Professor Ann Berrington at the Centre for Population Change, about a decline in births following the pandemic.

    The Guardian view on declining birthrates: there may be trouble Weibo. 2021
    Blog article on Chinese website Weibo quotes research by Centre for Population Change into declining fertility rates, references recent article in The Guardian.

    The Women Who Decided They Don't Want Children During The Pandemic Refinery29. 2021
    News article on Refinery29 website quotes Dr Bernice Kuang and her research into declining birthrates.

    Has Covid caused a baby bust? News Chant. 2021
    Article references research by the Centre for Population Change, about a possible decline in births following the pandemic.

    Declining birthrates: trouble ahead CathNews New Zealand . 2021
    News article on New Zealand news website mentions research by Professor Ann Berrington into declining fertility following the Covid-19 pandemic.

    The Guardian view on declining birthrates: there may be trouble ahead The Guardian. 2021
    News article in The Guardian references research by the Centre for Population Change, about a possible decline in births following the pandemic.

    Britain's falling birthrate will damage our society - and it's not just Covid to blame The Guardian. 2021
    Article on The Guardian website refers to the Centre for Population Change and research by Professor Ann Berrington and her research team on declining levels of fertility caused by Covid-19. See ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'.

    Southampton research finds births could fall due to pandemic The Hampshire Chronicle. 2021
    Article in The Hampshire Chronicle refers to research by Professor Ann Berrington and team on declining levels of fertility caused by Covid-19. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'.

    Britain must reverse the baby bust to avoid an Italian decline The Telegraph. 2021
    Article in The Telegraph refers to research by Professor Ann Berrington and team on declining levels of fertility caused by Covid-19. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'.

    Of course there's a baby bust. We live in a society that doesn't value children The Telegraph. 2021
    Article in The Telegraph refers to research by Professor Ann Berrington and team on declining levels of fertility caused by Covid-19. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'.

    Covid pandemic could see baby bust rather than a baby boom About Manchester. 2021
    Article on About Manchester refers to research by Professor Ann Berrington and team on declining levels of fertility caused by Covid-19. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'

    Coronavirus: UK fertility rate falls to lowest level on record Yahoo News. 2021
    Article on Yahoo News about declining fertility rates in the UK exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'

    Covid-19 could cause historically low levels of childbearing in UK Mirage News. 2021
    Article in Mirage News about declining fertility rates in the UK exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'

    Covid 'baby bust' fears as fertility rate falls to record low The Telegraph. 2021
    Article in the Telegraph newspaper about declining fertility rates in the UK exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'

    Covid-19 could cause historically low levels of childbearing in the UK University of Southampton. 2021
    Article on the University of Southampton website about declining fertility rates in the UK exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'

    The pandemic baby bust Capx. 2021
    Blog article on Capx website about the pandemic causing a decline in births features Professor Ann Berrington and her research into fertility trends.

    The pandemic baby bust Deloitte. 2021
    Blog article on Deloitte website about the pandemic causing a decline in births features Professor Ann Berrington and her research into fertility trends.

    Headache of having the kids at home puts brakes on birth rate The Sunday Times. 2021
    Professor Ann Berrington comments on the falling birth rate in the UK as a result of the pandemic.