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  • Project contributors: Berrington A, Kulu H, Ellison J, Kuang B, Christison S,

    This Project is part of the following research programme/s:



    There has been much speculation in the media about the likely impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on childbearing - will there be a baby boom or bust? Many different factors affect childbearing decisions, including economic factors, attitudes and beliefs, and the level of gender equality both outside and inside the home. Given the complexity of factors affecting childbearing, it is not surprising that previous predictions of future fertility in the UK have often been wrong. Nevertheless, predicting future numbers of births is important for planning, e.g. for maternity services, schools, and financial commitments through the welfare system. It is therefore useful to consider the potential ways the COVID-19 pandemic could affect childbearing, at least in the short term.

    In this project, we have three aims:
    1) To examine UK fertility trends prior to 2019, to understand what was happening prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
    2) To explore the possible impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on peoples childbearing behaviour and outline a number of possible future scenarios for fertility rates.
    3) To use these scenarios to project the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and the annual number of births for 2021-23.

    Publications & Activities

    Pandemic Babies? The Fertility Response to the First Covid-19 Wave Across European Regions
    European Population Conference 2022 (2022). (Groningen and online)
    Authors: Nitsche N, Jasilioniene A, Nisen J, Li P, Kniffka M, Andersson G, Bagavos C, Berrington A, Cipin I, Clemente S, Dommermuth L, Fallesen P, Galdauskaite D, Lerch M, McDonnell C, Muller A, Neels K, Pötzsch O, Ramiro D, Riederer B, Te-Riele S, Szabó L, Toulemon L, Vignoli D, Zeman K, Znidarsic T, Myrskylä M,

    Pandemic Babies? The Fertility Response to the First COVID-19 Wave Across European Regions
    Population Association of America Conference 2022 (2022). (Atlanta, Georgia, USA)
    Authors: Jasilioniene A, Berrington A, Muller A, Riederer B, Bagavos C, Vignoli D, Ramiro-Farinas D, Galdauskaite D, Andersson G, Cipin I, Nisen J, Neels K, Zeman K, Dommermuth L, Szabó L, Toulemon L, Lerch M, Kniffka M, McDonnell C, Myrskylä M, Nitsche N, Li P, Fallesen P, Pötzsch O, Te-Riele S, Clemente S, Žnidaršič T,