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  • Project contributors: Bijak J, Hilton J, Gray J,

    This Project is part of the following research programme/s:

    Integrated Demographic Estimation and Forecasting

    Overview

    Demographic change is the outcome of large numbers of individual decisions and interactions. Capturing these behavioural foundations require complex, micro-founded models of population processes. This project uses simulation methodology to this end, with a focus on properly accounting for the main sources of uncertainty relating to such models, including those relating to our lack of understanding of the process of human decision-making itself. Modular simulations are employed in order to test multiple plausible micro-level theories of population change, while a rigorous statistical approach to calibration and quantifying uncertainty based on Bayesian statistical emulators aids the analysis and interpretation of results. Jakub Bijak contributes to international dialogue on this subject through his membership of the IUSSP panel on Microsimulation and Agent-based Modeling in Demography.

    Publications & Activities

    A note on the use of Bayesian methods in official statistics
    Inter-American Statistical Institute (IASI) (2017).
    Authors: Bijak J,

    Migration, demography and Bayesian statistics
    School of Environmental Sciences Seminar Series (2017). (University of Liverpool, UK)
    Authors: Bijak J,

    Uncertain agents, uncertain models
    Symposium for Frans Willekens (2016). (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock)
    Authors: Bijak J,

    Hilton J, Bijak J, (2016) Chapter 8 - Design and Analysis of Demographic Simulations. in Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies: Concepts, Methods, and Applications
    Dordrecht: Springer, 211-235.

    Gray J, Bijak J, Bullock S, (2016) Chapter 11 - Deciding to Disclose - A Decision Theoretic Agent Model of Pregnancy and Alcohol Misuse. in Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies: Concepts, Methods, and Applications
    Dordrecht: Springer, 301-340.

    Courgeau D, Bijak J, Franck R, Silverman E, (2016) Chapter 2 - Model-Based Demography: Towards a Research Agenda in Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies: Concepts, Methods, and Applications
    Dordrecht: Springer, 29-51.

    The risky business of asking for help: an agent-based model of unmet need
    BSPS Conference 2015 (2015). (University of Leeds)
    Authors: Gray J, Bijak J, Bullock S,

    Agent-based modelling in demography: Epistemological and methodological challenges
    Süßmilch Lecture (2015). (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock)
    Authors: Bijak J,

    Choosing the choice: Reflections on modelling decisions and behaviour in agent-based models
    The science of choice: How to model the decision-making process (2015). (Max-Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock)
    Authors: Gray J, Hilton J, Bijak J,

    Media

    Bayesian Demography 250 years after Bayes You Tube. 2016
    Video titled "Bayesian Demography 250 years after Bayes" uploaded onto CPC Youtube channel.

    250-year-old research methodology helps solve 21st Century population questions Myinforms.com website. 2016
    Jakub Bijak research quoted online on Inform.com, "250-year-old research methodology helps solve 21st Century population questions"