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  • Project contributors: Dodd E, Bijak J, Smith P, Forster J,

    This Project is part of the following research programme/s:

    Population estimation and forecasting


    In the first part of this project we aim to produce the latest official decennial life table, ELT17, for the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This life table is based on the mortality experience of the England and Wales population during the years 2010, 2011 and 2012. We develop a methodology for smoothing UK mortality data incorporating uncertainty into the old-age mortality estimates.

    The second part of the project involves a review of the current practice of setting the mortality assumptions in the UK National Population Projections carried out at the ONS. In this review we answer several methodological questions, including how to extrapolate mortality rates to the oldest ages, reduce the subjective assessment and correction, and project the future mortality improvement rates in the UK. Besides reviewing the ONS methodology and offering practical recommendations, we propose a comprehensive, coherent and flexible mortality projection method, which preserves the advantages of their current approach, and eliminates some of its limitations.

    Publications & Activities

    Modelling weekly mortality incorporating annual trends
    International Population Conference 2021 (2021). (Virtual, Hyderabad, India)
    Authors: Ellison J, Hilton J, Dodd E, Forster J, Smith P, Bijak J,

    Forecasting Migration: Methods, Models, Uncertainty
    Parliamentary Office for Science and Technology webinar (2020). (London via weblink)
    Authors: Bijak J,

    Modelling frontier mortality using Bayesian generalised additive models
    United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Conference of European Statisticians (2019). (Belgrade, Serbia)
    Authors: Hilton J, Dodd E, Forster J, Smith P,

    Smoothing mortality data: The English Life Table, 2010-12
    Journal of the Royal Statistical Society - Series A (2018). 181 (3) 717-735
    Authors: Dodd E, Forster J, Bijak J, Smith P,

    Methodology Review for the Mortality Assumptions in the UK National Population Projections
    Southampton, University of Southampton (2017).
    Authors: Dodd E, Forster J, Bijak J, Smith P,

    Implementing a model-based approach to estimating mortality rates: description of results from Phase 1 of the Mortality Review
    ONS Mortality Seminar (2016). (Office for National Statistics)
    Authors: Forster J,

    A Comprehensive Framework for Mortality Forecasting
    Conference of European Statisticians: Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections (2016). (Geneva)
    Authors: Forster J,

    Model integration for mortality estimation and forecasting
    Centre for Research in Statistical Methodology Seminar Series (2016). (University of Warwick)
    Authors: Forster J,

    Stochastic Mortality Forecasting with Smoothing and Overdispersion
    International Mortality and Longevity Symposium (2016). (Royal Holloway, London)
    Authors: Forster J,

    Practical Bayesian model averaging: Producing the English Life Table
    Seminar (2015). (University of Amsterdam)
    Authors: Forster J,