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  • Project contributors: Bijak J, Forster J, Higham P, Nurse S, Smith P, Uhrmacher A, Modirrousta-Galian A,

    This Project is part of the following research programme/s:

    Population estimation and forecasting

    Overview

    International migration is one of the most uncertain components of population change and a top-priority area for policy. The aim of the project is to develop a ground-breaking simulation model of international migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their social networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. We want to change the way in which migration is understood, predicted, and managed by effectively integrating behavioural and social theory with modelling. Find out more on the project website.

    Publications & Activities

    Syrian Migration to Europe, 2011-21: Data Inventory
    Location: Bayesian Agent-Based Population Studies. (2021)
    Authors: Nurse S, Bijak J,

    Bijak J, Higham P, Hilton J, Hinsch M, Nurse S, Prike T, Reinhardt O, Smith P, Uhrmacher A, (2020) Modelling Migration: Decisions, Processes and Outcomes in Proceedings of the 2020 Winter Simulation Conference

    Agent-based migration models: Challenges and opportunities
    Agent-Based Models for Exploring Public Policy Planning (2019). (Lorentz Center, The Netherlands)
    Authors: Bijak J,

    New avenues in modelling migration
    BAPS workshop (2019). (University of Rostock)
    Authors: Bijak J,

    Streamlining simulation experiments with agent-based models in demography
    Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (2018). 21 (3) 9
    Authors: Reinhardt O, Hilton J, T W, Bijak J, Uhrmacher A,

    Media

    Agent Based Modelling for Social Research- Introduction Youtube. 2022
    In this video, Professor Jakub Bijak introduces the online materials for this short course on Agent-Based Modelling for social research, outlining the share a novel approach from building, validating and analysing agent-based simulation models, developed as a part of a four-year programme based on agent-based population studies funded by the European Research Council.

    Introduction to ABM Youtube. 2021
    In this video, Dr André Grow introduces the basics of agent-based modelling, presenting examples from his own work to demonstrate how the method works and what kind of questions you can address.

    2nd video, A multidisciplinary path toward a better understanding of human migration - book promotion video Vimeo. 2021
    A multidisciplinary path toward a better understanding of human migration - book:Bijak et al., "Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography: Agency, Complexity and Uncertainty in Migration Studies" (2021).

    1st video, A multidisciplinary path toward a better understanding of human migration - book promotion video Vimeo. 2021
    A multidisciplinary path toward a better understanding of human migration - book, Bijak et al., "Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography: Agency, Complexity and Uncertainty in Migration Studies" (2021).

    Time in Agent-based models Youtube. 2021
    In this video, Oliver Reinhardt introduces you to two different ways to advance time in an agent-based simulation, identifying some of the inherent problems of time-stepped simulations and how to avoid them with discrete event simulation.

    Introduction to Modelling Part 2 Youtube. 2021
    In this video, Dr Martin Hinsch focuses on modelling, talking about complexity, chaos, criticality and emergence.

    Introduction to Modelling Part 1 Youtube. 2021
    In this video, Dr Martin Hinsch gives a brief general introduction to modelling, first looking at predictive models and then explanatory models.

    CPC Webinar: Keynote lecture on agent-based modelling | Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz Youtube. 2020
    CPC Webinar given by Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, deputy director of the Vienna Institute of Demography at the Austrian Academy of Sciences, on Tuesday 3rd November 2020. This presentation was also the keynote lecture for the "Short course on Agent-based modelling for social research", run by the project team "Bayesian Agent-based Population Studies". "An agent-based modelling approach to account for social interactions in demography ". Demographic behaviour cannot be explained and understood in isolation from the social network one is linked to (e.g. Åberg 2003; Montgomery and Casterline 1996). These networks may consist of family members, friends and other peer groups which will have an impact through social learning and social influence on each other. However, the formalisation of such network effects to explain individual demographic behaviour lags behind the empirical evidence or is often simplified in terms of macro-level diffusion mechanisms that do not allow understanding the mechanisms of social network effects from the bottom up. Agent-based models allow to integrate such network effects into models of individual demographic decision processes and to build up the macro-level demographic patterns (e.g. aggregate fertility rates, marriage rates, etc.) from the bottom up.