Overview
The aim of this research is to continue developing the pathbreaking models and tools made during CPC-I on dynamic population forecasting models, particularly in the context of demographic uncertainty. Dynamic population models provide a general and flexible platform for modelling and analysing population change over time. They allow the combination of all the main components of population change by age and sex with various transitions that population groups may experience throughout their life course. The transitions may include those between states of residences, employment, marriage or health.
The models developed in this project extend existing multi-state models by (1) including all of the main demographic components of change (i.e., fertility, mortality and interregional migration) and their (expected) variations over time, (2) by allowing interactions to occur between various state transitions that occur throughout the life course, e.g., health and marital statuses, residential and employment statuses, or marital and employment statuses, and (3) by including uncertainty using statistical modelling approaches for rates and categorical data.
Publications & Activities
Dealing with uncertainty in migration research
Turkish Migration Conference 2014 (2014). (Regent's University, London)
Authors: Bijak J,
Empirical Evaluation of Migration Forecasting Methods
Conference of European Statisticians: Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections (2016). (Geneva)
Authors: Bijak J,
European Migrations: Uncertain Present, Uncertain Future?
Centre d'Estudis Demografics 30th Anniversary Lecture Series (2014). (Centre d'Estudis Demografics, Barcelona)
Authors: Bijak J,
Forecasting fertility with Bayesian parametric mixture models
Royal Statistical Society (2020). (Virtual)
Authors: Hilton J,
From Bayesian Forecasts to Decisions
Joint Statistical Meetings 2015 (2015). (Seattle)
Authors: Wiśniowski A, Bijak J, Forster J,
Modelling Migration: Review and Assessment
First International Conference on "EU and Global Asylum-Related Migration Research – Gaining an Overview" (2016). (Floriana, Malta)
Authors: Bijak J,
Modelling the unforeseeable: limits and advances in migration forecasting
Seminar on Population Projections and Demographic Trends (2018). (Eurostat, Luxembourg)
Authors: Bijak J,
Predicting Migration: Practices, Pitfalls and Perspectives
Joint KNOMAD-UN Population Division Seminar on the role of Migration in Population Modeling (2014). (United Nations, New York)
Authors: Bijak J,
Uncertain Population Forecasting. A Case for Practical Uses.
New Techniques and Technologies for Statistics (NTTS) conference (2015). (Brussels)
Authors: Bijak J, Aberts I, Alho J, Bryant J, Buettner T, Falkingham J, Forster J, Gerland P, Keilman N, King T, O'Hagan A, Onorante L, Owens D, Raftery A, Ševcíková H, Smith P,
Uncertainty in international migration studies: A Bayesian view
Invited seminar (2014). (School of Mathematics, University College Dublin)
Authors: Bijak J,
Uncertainty in international migration studies: A Bayesian view
Trinity 2014 Seminar Series: 'Research Methods in Demography and Beyond' (2014). (Oxford Institute of Population Ageing)
Authors: Bijak J,
Use of probabilistic forecasts; with focus on population applications
(2014).
CPC organised workshop with discussants and speakers from both the industry and academics
