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  • Project contributors: Kulu H, Berrington A, Bijak J, Dodd E, Falkingham J, Kuang B, Vasireddy S, Ellison J,

    This Project is linked to the following Strand/s:

    Fertility and Family

    Overview

    Fertility significantly increased in the first decade of the 21st century before declining; dramatic fluctuations that were not predicted by demographers or government statisticians. These fluctuations have significant implications for planning and policy making, at both national and local levels.

    The causes of the recent fertility dynamics are unclear and complex. Some researchers attribute the recent fluctuations in fertility levels to changes in the timing of fertility i.e. the postponement or acceleration of childbearing. Others emphasise the importance of changes in population composition or changes in childbearing behaviour in response to policy and the post-2008 economic recession.

    Childbearing is naturally a sequential process; decisions on having an additional child are likely to be evaluated on the basis of experience with previous children. Using census-linked administrative data from the ONS Longitudinal Study, Scottish Longitudinal Study, and Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study, together with survey data from the Understanding Society study, this project carries out a detailed analysis of fertility by birth order to improve future forecasts of fertility.

    The project brings together researchers from the Universities of St Andrews and Southampton, as well as government statisticians from ONS, NRS, and NISRA.

    The project will greatly improve our understanding of the factors associated with changing fertility in the UK and will improve the methodology used for UK fertility forecasts. A better understanding of present childbearing trends and forecast of future developments will be critical to inform the planning of demand for various public services such as nurseries, school places and housing.

    For more information please see the project website here

    Media

    Britain's falling birthrate will damage our society - and it's not just Covid to blame The Guardian. 2021
    Article on The Guardian website refers to the Centre for Population Change and research by Professor Ann Berrington and her research team on declining levels of fertility caused by Covid-19. See ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'.

    Southampton research finds births could fall due to pandemic The Hampshire Chronicle. 2021
    Article in The Hampshire Chronicle refers to research by Professor Ann Berrington and team on declining levels of fertility caused by Covid-19. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'.

    Britain must reverse the baby bust to avoid an Italian decline The Telegraph. 2021
    Article in The Telegraph refers to research by Professor Ann Berrington and team on declining levels of fertility caused by Covid-19. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'.

    Of course there's a baby bust. We live in a society that doesn't value children The Telegraph. 2021
    Article in The Telegraph refers to research by Professor Ann Berrington and team on declining levels of fertility caused by Covid-19. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'.

    Covid pandemic could see baby bust rather than a baby boom About Manchester. 2021
    Article on About Manchester refers to research by Professor Ann Berrington and team on declining levels of fertility caused by Covid-19. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'

    Coronavirus: UK fertility rate falls to lowest level on record Yahoo News. 2021
    Article on Yahoo News about declining fertility rates in the UK exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'

    Covid-19 could cause historically low levels of childbearing in UK Mirage News. 2021
    Article in Mirage News about declining fertility rates in the UK exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'

    Covid 'baby bust' fears as fertility rate falls to record low The Telegraph. 2021
    Article in the Telegraph newspaper about declining fertility rates in the UK exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'

    Covid-19 could cause historically low levels of childbearing in the UK University of Southampton. 2021
    Article on the University of Southampton website about declining fertility rates in the UK exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'

    The pandemic baby bust Reaction. 2021

    The pandemic baby bust Capx. 2021
    Blog article on Capx website about the pandemic causing a decline in births features Professor Ann Berrington and her research into fertility trends.

    The pandemic baby bust Deloitte. 2021
    Blog article on Deloitte website about the pandemic causing a decline in births features Professor Ann Berrington and her research into fertility trends.

    Birthrate in England and Wales at all-time low Guardian, The. 2019
    Article on low birthrates in England and Wales: "The birthrate in England and Wales has hit its lowest level since records began, government statistics have shown.". Quotes Ann Berrington.