Projects
The impact of Covid-19 on trends in Fertility
Project contributors: Berrington A, Kulu H, Ellison J, Kuang B, Christison S,
This Project is part of the following research programme/s:
Overview
There has been much speculation in the media about the likely impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on childbearing - will there be a baby boom or bust? Many different factors affect childbearing decisions, including economic factors, attitudes and beliefs, and the level of gender equality both outside and inside the home. Given the complexity of factors affecting childbearing, it is not surprising that previous predictions of future fertility in the UK have often been wrong. Nevertheless, predicting future numbers of births is important for planning, e.g. for maternity services, schools, and financial commitments through the welfare system. It is therefore useful to consider the potential ways the COVID-19 pandemic could affect childbearing, at least in the short term.
In this project, we have three aims:
1) To examine UK fertility trends prior to 2019, to understand what was happening prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
2) To explore the possible impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on peoples childbearing behaviour and outline a number of possible future scenarios for fertility rates.
3) To use these scenarios to project the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and the annual number of births for 2021-23.
Publications & Activities
Pandemic Babies? The Fertility Response to the First Covid-19 Wave Across European Regions
European Population Conference 2022 (2022). (Groningen and online)
Authors: Nitsche N, Jasilioniene A, Nisen J, Li P, Kniffka M, Andersson G, Bagavos C, Berrington A, Cipin I, Clemente S, Dommermuth L, Fallesen P, Galdauskaite D, Lerch M, McDonnell C, Muller A, Neels K, Pötzsch O, Ramiro D, Riederer B, Te-Riele S, Szabó L, Toulemon L, Vignoli D, Zeman K, Znidarsic T, Myrskylä M,
Pandemic Babies? The Fertility Response to the First COVID-19 Wave Across European Regions
Population Association of America Conference 2022 (2022). (Atlanta, Georgia, USA)
Authors: Jasilioniene A, Berrington A, Muller A, Riederer B, Bagavos C, Vignoli D, Ramiro-Farinas D, Galdauskaite D, Andersson G, Cipin I, Nisen J, Neels K, Zeman K, Dommermuth L, Szabó L, Toulemon L, Lerch M, Kniffka M, McDonnell C, Myrskylä M, Nitsche N, Li P, Fallesen P, Pötzsch O, Te-Riele S, Clemente S, Žnidaršič T,
What is the likely impact of Covid-19 on fertility in the UK?
University of Southampton, CPC (2022). Series Number: 66.
Authors: Berrington A, Ellison J, Kuang B, Vasireddy S, Kulu H,
Scenario-based fertility projections incorporating impacts of COVID-19
Population, Space and Place (2021). 28 (2)
Authors: Berrington A, Ellison J, Kuang B, Vasireddy S, Kulu H,
Scenario-based fertility projections incorporating impacts of COVID-19
Pandemic Babies? The Covid-19 Pandemic and Its Impact on Fertility and Family Dynamics (2021). (Harnack House, Berlin, hybrid)
Authors: Berrington A, Ellison J, Kuang B, Kulu H,
Scenario-based fertility projections incorporating impacts of COVID-19
International Population Conference 2021 (2021). (Virtual, Hyderabad, India)
Authors: Berrington A, Ellison J, Kuang B, Kulu H,
Two decades of fertility fluctuation in Great Britain
BSPS Conference 2021 (2021). (Virtual)
Authors: Kulu H, Kuang B, Berrington A,
Recent trends in UK fertility and scenarios for impact of COVID‐19
BSPS Conference 2021 (2021). (Virtual)
Authors: Berrington A, Ellison J, Kuang B, Vasireddy S, Kulu H,
Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of COVID-19
CPC (2021). Series Number: 95.
Authors: Berrington A, Ellison J, Kuang B, Vasireddy S, Kulu H,
Media
Effect of lockdowns on UK birth rates The Geographer: People Pressure, Population and Planetary Health. 2022
Article by Professor Ann Berrington and Dr Joanne Ellison on the effect of lockdowns on birth rates.
Effect of lockdowns on birth rates in the UK The Conversation. 2022
Article by Professor Ann Berrington and Dr Joanne Ellison on the effect of lockdowns on birth rates.
New data suggests that pandemic resulted in temporary decline in number of babies born in United Kingdom - California News Times California News Times. 2022
News article on California News Time website about research by Ann Berrington and her research team on the impact of the pandemic on fertility levels.
England's Euros success risks baby bust The Telegraph. 2021
News article in The Telegraph about the impact of the Euros tournament on fertility rates.
A Disaster For Our Economy! Declining Birth Rates Irk British MPs Albawaba. 2021
News article quotes research by Centre for Population Change into declining fertility rates.
Scotland marks lowest level of births in recorded history The Times. 2021
Professor Hill Kulu quoted in The Times on Scotland's lowest birth rate.
Deaths outnumber births in Britain for the first time since 1976 Wion. 2021
News article references research by Professor Ann Berrington at the Centre for Population Change, about a decline in births following the pandemic.
The Guardian view on declining birthrates: there may be trouble Weibo. 2021
Blog article on Chinese website Weibo quotes research by Centre for Population Change into declining fertility rates, references recent article in The Guardian.
The Women Who Decided They Don't Want Children During The Pandemic Refinery29. 2021
News article on Refinery29 website quotes Dr Bernice Kuang and her research into declining birthrates.
Has Covid caused a baby bust? News Chant. 2021
Article references research by the Centre for Population Change, about a possible decline in births following the pandemic.
Declining birthrates: trouble ahead CathNews New Zealand . 2021
News article on New Zealand news website mentions research by Professor Ann Berrington into declining fertility following the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Guardian view on declining birthrates: there may be trouble ahead The Guardian. 2021
News article in The Guardian references research by the Centre for Population Change, about a possible decline in births following the pandemic.
Lockdown baby boom may be on the way as NHS antenatal bookings rebound The Guardian. 2021
Britain's falling birthrate will damage our society - and it's not just Covid to blame The Guardian. 2021
Article on The Guardian website refers to the Centre for Population Change and research by Professor Ann Berrington and her research team on declining levels of fertility caused by Covid-19. See ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'.
Southampton research finds births could fall due to pandemic The Hampshire Chronicle. 2021
Article in The Hampshire Chronicle refers to research by Professor Ann Berrington and team on declining levels of fertility caused by Covid-19. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'.
Boomer generation's retirement will hurt economy The Telegraph. 2021
Southampton research finds births could fall due to pandemic The Daily Echo. 2021
Britain must reverse the baby bust to avoid an Italian decline The Telegraph. 2021
Article in The Telegraph refers to research by Professor Ann Berrington and team on declining levels of fertility caused by Covid-19. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'.
Of course there's a baby bust. We live in a society that doesn't value children The Telegraph. 2021
Article in The Telegraph refers to research by Professor Ann Berrington and team on declining levels of fertility caused by Covid-19. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'.
Covid pandemic could see baby bust rather than a baby boom About Manchester. 2021
Article on About Manchester refers to research by Professor Ann Berrington and team on declining levels of fertility caused by Covid-19.
Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'
Coronavirus: UK fertility rate falls to lowest level on record Yahoo News. 2021
Article on Yahoo News about declining fertility rates in the UK exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'
Covid-19 could cause historically low levels of childbearing in UK Mirage News. 2021
Article in Mirage News about declining fertility rates in the UK exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'
Covid 'baby bust' fears as fertility rate falls to record low The Telegraph. 2021
Article in the Telegraph newspaper about declining fertility rates in the UK exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'
Covid-19 could cause historically low levels of childbearing in the UK University of Southampton. 2021
Article on the University of Southampton website about declining fertility rates in the UK exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'
The pandemic baby bust Capx. 2021
Blog article on Capx website about the pandemic causing a decline in births features Professor Ann Berrington and her research into fertility trends.
The pandemic baby bust Deloitte. 2021
Blog article on Deloitte website about the pandemic causing a decline in births features Professor Ann Berrington and her research into fertility trends.
Headache of having the kids at home puts brakes on birth rate The Sunday Times. 2021
Professor Ann Berrington comments on the falling birth rate in the UK as a result of the pandemic.
