Research Programme


Complex models of demographic change

Jakub Bijak, Jason Hilton, Jono Gray

Project summary

Demographic change is the outcome of large numbers of individual decisions and interactions. Capturing these behavioural foundations require complex, micro-founded models of population processes. This project uses simulation methodology to this end, with a focus on properly accounting for the main sources of uncertainty relating to such models, including those relating to our lack of understanding of the process of human decision-making itself. Modular simulations are employed in order to test multiple plausible micro-level theories of population change, while a rigorous statistical approach to calibration and quantifying uncertainty based on Bayesian statistical emulators aids the analysis and interpretation of results. Jakub Bijak contributes to international dialogue on this subject through his membership of the IUSSP panel on Microsimulation and Agent-based Modeling in Demography.

Project activities
 

Date Activity Description
25th April 2017 Presentaton as part of the School of Environmental Sciences Seminar Series, at the University of Liverpool, UK. Jakub Bijak presents a paper titled "Migration, demography and Bayesian statistics".
7th-9th September 2015 Presentations at British Society for Population Studies conference, Leeds The paper "Statistical Analysis of an Agent Based Model of Inter-generational Fertility Dynamics" was presented by Jason Hilton. The paper "Risky business of asking for help: an agent-based model of unmet need" was authored and presented by Jono Gray, Jakub Bijak and Seth Bullock.
26th October 2015 Contribution to taught course “A stochastic process approach to agent-based modelling and simulation” Max Planck Institute of Demographic Research, Rostock.. Lecture and computer workshop on the design and analysis of computer experiments was presented by Jakub Bijak and Jason Hilton.
5 August 2015 Presentation at the University of Amsterdam The paper "Practical Bayesian model averaging: Producing the English Life Table" was presented by Jon Forster.

 


 

 

 

Publications

Bijak, J. (2017) A note on the use of Bayesian methods in official statistics. In: Bulletin of the Inter-American Statistical Institute (IASI), No. #112 (in English and Spanish), Inter-American Statistical Institute (IASI), March 2017.

Courgeau, D.,  Bijak, J., Franck, R. and Silverman, E. (2016) 'Model-Based Demography: Towards a Research Agenda.' In Van Bavel, J. and Grow, A. (eds) Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies: Concepts, Methods, and Applications, Dordrecht: Springer (Forthcoming).

Gray, J., Bijak, J. and Bullock, S. (2016) 'Deciding to Disclose: A Decision Theoretic Agent Model of Pregnancy and Alcohol Misuse.' In Van Bavel, J. and Grow, A. (eds) Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies: Concepts, Methods, and Applications, Dordrecht: Springer (Forthcoming).

Hilton, J. and Bijak, J. (2016) 'Design and Analysis of Demographic Simulations.' In Van Bavel, J. and Grow, A. (eds) Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies: Concepts, Methods, and Applications, Dordrecht: Springer (Forthcoming).

 

Media activities

You can browse all CPC media outputs and population-related articles from CPC members on our Scoop.it! page.