Projects
Understanding Recent Fertility Trends in the UK and Improving Methodologies for Fertility Forecasting
Project contributors: Kulu H, Berrington A, Bijak J, Dodd E, Falkingham J, Kuang B, Ellison J, Christison S,
This Project is part of the following research programme/s:
Overview
Fertility significantly increased in the first decade of the 21st century before declining; dramatic fluctuations that were not predicted by demographers or government statisticians. These fluctuations have significant implications for planning and policy making, at both national and local levels.
The causes of the recent fertility dynamics are unclear and complex. Some researchers attribute the recent fluctuations in fertility levels to changes in the timing of fertility i.e. the postponement or acceleration of childbearing. Others emphasise the importance of changes in population composition or changes in childbearing behaviour in response to policy and the post-2008 economic recession.
Childbearing is naturally a sequential process; decisions on having an additional child are likely to be evaluated on the basis of experience with previous children. Using census-linked administrative data from the ONS Longitudinal Study, Scottish Longitudinal Study, and Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study, together with survey data from the Understanding Society study, this project carries out a detailed analysis of fertility by birth order to improve future forecasts of fertility.
The project brings together researchers from the Universities of St Andrews and Southampton, as well as government statisticians from ONS, NRS, and NISRA.
The project will greatly improve our understanding of the factors associated with changing fertility in the UK and will improve the methodology used for UK fertility forecasts. A better understanding of present childbearing trends and forecast of future developments will be critical to inform the planning of demand for various public services such as nurseries, school places and housing.
For more information please see the project website here
Publications & Activities
Fertility Trends in Contemporary Northern Ireland: How Does Fertility Behavior Vary by Education and Religion?
Population Association of America (PAA) Conference 2024 (2024). (Columbus, Ohio)
Authors: Christison S, Kulu H, Kuang B, Berrington A,
Estimating the 2011 total fertility rate for England & Wales and Scotland using alternative data sources
CPC (2023). Series Number: 106.
Authors: Ellison J, Kuang B, Christison S, Berrington A, Kulu H,
Education and Fertility: A Review of Recent Research in Europe
Comparative Population Studies (2023).
Authors: Vasireddy S, Berrington A, Kuang B, Kulu H,
Fertility trends and changing housing contexts in Scotland: A longitudinal analysis
British Society Population Studies Conference 2023 (2023). (Keele)
Authors: Christison S, Kulu H, Berrington A,
Understanding fertility trends in Britain: Do fertility intentions differ across England, Wales and Scotland?
CPC (2023). Series Number: 105.
Authors: Berrington A, Kuang B, Christison S, Kulu H,
Fertility Trends by Birth Order in Britain: The Comparison Between England and Wales, and Scotland
Population Association of America Annual Conference 2023 (2023). (New Orleans)
Authors: Kulu H, Kuang B, Christison S, Ellison J, Berrington A,
The Changing Educational Gradient of Fertility in the United Kingdom: A Comparison of England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland
Population Association of America Annual Conference 2023 (2023). (New Orleans)
Authors: Kuang B, Christison S, Ellison J, Berrington A,
Can Incorporating Parity Information Improve the Reliability of Fertility Projections?
Population Association of America Annual Conference 2023 (2023). (New Orleans)
Authors: Ellison J, Bijak J, Dodd E,
Combining individual- and population-level data to develop a Bayesian parity-specific fertility projection model
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics (2023).
Authors: Ellison J, Berrington A, Dodd E, Forster J,
Changing Educational Patterns of Childlessness in the United Kingdom- A Comparison of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland
European Population Conference 2022 (2022). (Groningen and online)
Authors: Kuang B, Christison S, Ellison J, Kulu H, Berrington A,
Microthesis: Combining data sources to develop a fertility projection model
London Mathematical Society (2022).
Authors: Ellison J,
What is the likely impact of Covid-19 on fertility in the UK?
University of Southampton, CPC (2022). Series Number: 66.
Authors: Berrington A, Ellison J, Kuang B, Vasireddy S, Kulu H,
Forecasting: theory and practice
International Journal of Forecasting (2022). 38 (3) 705-871
Authors: Petropoulos F, Bijak J, Ellison J, Et A,
Changing Educational Patterns of Childlessness in the United Kingdom: A Comparison of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Nordic Demographic Symposium 2022 (2022). (Oslo)
Authors: Kuang B, Christison S, Ellison J, Kulu H, Berrington A,
Improving Methods for Fertility Forecasting through the Incorporation of Parity Information
Nordic Demographic Symposium 2022 (2022). (Oslo)
Authors: Ellison J, Berrington A, Bijak J, Dodd E,
Fertility Behaviour and the Residential Context: a longitudinal analysis of fertility trends in Scotland
Nordic Demographic Symposium 2022 (2022). (Oslo)
Authors: Christison S, Kuang B, Ellison J, Kulu H, Berrington A,
Improving Methods for Fertility Forecasting through the Incorporation of Parity Information
European Population Conference 2022 (2022). (Groningen and online)
Authors: Ellison J, Berrington A, Bijak J, Dodd E,
Projecting UK Fertility by Parity using Bayesian Generalized Additive Models
RSS Conference 2022 (2022). (Aberdeen)
Authors: Ellison J, Berrington A, Bijak J, Dodd E,
Educational differences in childbearing by parity: A cross‐national comparison of England & Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland
British Society for Population Studies (BSPS) annual conference 2022 (2022). (Winchester)
Authors: Kuang B, Christison S, Kulu H, Berrington A,
Fertility trends by birth order in Britain: The comparison between England and Wales, and Scotland
British Society for Population Studies (BSPS) annual conference 2022 (2022). (Winchester)
Authors: Kulu H, Kuang B, Christison S, Ellison J, Berrington A,
Improving methods for fertility forecasting through the Incorporation of parity Information
British Society for Population Studies (BSPS) annual conference 2022 (2022). (Winchester)
Authors: Ellison J, Berrington A, Bijak J, Dodd E,
Investigating the application of generalized additive models to discrete-time event history analysis for birth events
Demographic Research (2022). 47 (22) 647-694
Authors: Ellison J, Berrington A, Dodd E, Forster J,
Cross-national differences in the use of contraception and abortion services between England, Wales, and Scotland
BMJ Journal of Sexual and Reproductive Health (2022). 49 (2)
Authors: Kuang B, Berrington A,
Education and fertility in Europe in the last decade: A review of the literature
CPC (2022). Series Number: 103.
Authors: Vasireddy S, Berrington A, Kuang B, Kulu H,
Two decades of fertility fluctuation in Great Britain
BSPS Conference 2021 (2021). (Virtual)
Authors: Kulu H, Kuang B, Berrington A,
Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of COVID-19
CPC (2021). Series Number: 95.
Authors: Berrington A, Ellison J, Kuang B, Vasireddy S, Kulu H,
Berrington A, (2021) Chapter 15 - Fertility desires, intentions and behaviour in Research Handbook on the Sociology of the Family
Edward Elgar Publishing
Cross‐national differences in the use of contraception and abortion services between England, Wales and Scotland
BSPS Conference 2021 (2021). (Virtual)
Authors: Kuang B, Berrington A,
Moving home or having a baby: what comes first? Understanding the realisation of jointly held childbearing and mobility intentions in UK
BSPS Conference 2021 (2021). (Virtual)
Authors: Christison S, Kulu H, Fiori F, Keenan K,
Recent trends in UK fertility and scenarios for impact of COVID‐19
BSPS Conference 2021 (2021). (Virtual)
Authors: Berrington A, Ellison J, Kuang B, Vasireddy S, Kulu H,
Cross-national differences in the use of contraception and abortion services between England, Wales and Scotland
International Population Conference 2021 (2021). (Virtual, Hyderabad, India)
Authors: Kuang B, Berrington A,
Combining data sources to develop a Bayesian fertility projection model for England and Wales
BSPS Conference 2021 (2021). (Virtual)
Authors: Ellison J, Berrington A, Dodd E, Forster J,
Improving methodology for fertility forecasting through the incorporation of individual-level data and population-level parity information
International Population Conference 2021 (2021). (Virtual, Hyderabad, India)
Authors: Ellison J, Berrington A, Dodd E, Forster J, Bijak J,
Two decades of fertility fluctuation in Great Britain
International Population Conference 2021 (2021). (Virtual, Hyderabad, India)
Authors: Kulu H, Kuang B, Berrington A,
Scenario-based fertility projections incorporating impacts of COVID-19
International Population Conference 2021 (2021). (Virtual, Hyderabad, India)
Authors: Berrington A, Ellison J, Kuang B, Kulu H,
Scenario-based fertility projections incorporating impacts of COVID-19
Pandemic Babies? The Covid-19 Pandemic and Its Impact on Fertility and Family Dynamics (2021). (Harnack House, Berlin, hybrid)
Authors: Berrington A, Ellison J, Kuang B, Kulu H,
Scenario-based fertility projections incorporating impacts of COVID-19
Population, Space and Place (2021). 28 (2)
Authors: Berrington A, Ellison J, Kuang B, Vasireddy S, Kulu H,
Understanding fertility trends in the constituent countries of the UK: What role do births to foreign-born mothers play
BSPS 2020 (2020). (Virtual)
Authors: Berrington A, Kuang B,
Twenty years of having babies across different countries of the UK: How has parents' partnership status changed?
University of Southampton, CPC (2020). Series Number: 56.
Authors: Kuang B, Vasireddy S, Berrington A, Kulu H,
ESRC Fertility Trends Advisory Group meeting
(2020).
Policy Engagement
Parity-specific Fertility Projections workshop, 7 October 2022
Location: Zoom
This second workshop introduced a method to produce fertility projections by birth order with associated uncertainty, including practical R computer demos using population-level data. Parity-specific projections account for a crucial mechanism of fertility dynamics and thus could increase reliability.Contributors: Ellison J, Bijak J, Dodd E,
Fertility Analysis by Birth Order workshop, 30 September 2022
Location: Zoom
This first workshop introduced parity-specific fertility measures and methods to calculate fertility rates by birth order, including practical R computer demos using individual-level data. Such methods are useful because they enable the detection of underlying changes in fertility patterns with greater precision.Contributors: Berrington A, Kuang B, Christison S, Kulu H,
In collaboration with the Scottish Government Population Team, the FertilityTrends project team presented at a 'Fertility in Scotland' workshop in Edinburgh
Workshop participants included invited guests from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), National Records of Scotland (NRS), and the Finnish Population Research Institute.Contributors: Berrington A, Kulu H, Kuang B, Christison S, Ellison J,
Data
Media
The UK can't afford to shatter dreams of parenthood The National. 2024
Commentary piece in The National references research by Dr Bernice Kuang about falling birth rates.
Fears about falling birthrate in England and Wales are misplaced - the population is due to grow for years to come The Conversation. 2024
Dr Bernice Kuang and Dr Melanie Channon write in The Conversation about why we shouldn't be so alarmed about falling birth rates.
Post-pandemic baby boom ends as births fall to 20-year low The Times. 2023
News article in The Times about how UK birth rates are at their lowest level since 2002. Professor Ann Berrington suggests some of the reasons behind the decline.
Meet the 'elite' couples breeding to save mankind The Telegraph. 2023
News article in the Telegraph quotes Dr Bernice Kuang and her research into falling birth rates.
Scottish birth rate down by 20% in 'uncertain times' The Times. 2023
Dr Sarah Christison is quoted in an article in The Times about Scotland's declining fertility rate. This links to research project: Understanding recent fertility trends in the UK and improving methodologies.for fertility forecasting.
What the Faroe Islands could teach Europe about fertility The Telegraph. 2022
News article in The Telegraph about birth rates in the Faroe Islands quotes Dr Joanne Ellison and her research on UK birth rates.
Effect of lockdowns on UK birth rates The Geographer: People Pressure, Population and Planetary Health. 2022
Article by Professor Ann Berrington and Dr Joanne Ellison on the effect of lockdowns on birth rates.
Closures and cuts: the population crisis about to hit schools TES. 2022
Professor Ann Berrington is quoted in online news article in TES about falling birth rates and the impact on school closures.
Effect of lockdowns on birth rates in the UK The Conversation. 2022
Article by Professor Ann Berrington and Dr Joanne Ellison on the effect of lockdowns on birth rates.
Baby bust: Can policymakers boost dwindling world fertility rates? The Financial Times. 2022
Dr Bernice Kuang is quoted in The Financial Times regarding her research into falling birth rates.
Insight: How worried should we be about Scotland's falling birth rates and ageing population? The Scotsman. 2022
Newspaper article in The Scotsman about Scotland's falling birth rates quotes Dr Sarah Christison
Half of women in England and Wales do not have children by age 30 The Financial Times. 2022
Dr Bernice Kuang comments in an article in the Financial Times about recent official statistics showing that half of women in the UK do not have children by age thirty.
New data suggests that pandemic resulted in temporary decline in number of babies born in United Kingdom - California News Times California News Times. 2022
News article on California News Time website about research by Ann Berrington and her research team on the impact of the pandemic on fertility levels.
Britain needs immigrants if it is to survive the climate storm The Financial Times. 2022
The Financial Times references research by the Centre for Population Change about declining birth rates in England and Wales.
'Insensitive': pet owners react to pope's remarks on animals and children The Guardian. 2022
Dr Bernice Kuang quoted in The Guardian in a news article about declining birth rates.
Is parenting scarier than ever? The Sunday Times (Sri Lanka). 2021
Professor Ann Berrington quoted in online news article about falling birth rates in Sri Lankan newspaper, The Sunday Times.
Is parenting scarier than ever? BBC Worklife. 2021
BBC Worklife article about declining birth rates quotes Professor Ann Berrington.
Birth rate in England and Wales dropped by 4% last year as Covid hit The Independent. 2021
News article refers to research by CPC into declining birthrates.
Women Aren't “Forgetting” To Have Children. They Can't Afford To Refinery29. 2021
News article refers to research by CPC into declining birthrates.
The Rise Of The One-Child Family Refinery29. 2021
Article on Refinery29 website about the rise of one child families quotes Dr Bernice Kuang.
England's Euros success risks baby bust The Telegraph. 2021
News article in The Telegraph about the impact of the Euros tournament on fertility rates.
A Disaster For Our Economy! Declining Birth Rates Irk British MPs Albawaba. 2021
News article quotes research by Centre for Population Change into declining fertility rates.
Scotland marks lowest level of births in recorded history The Times. 2021
Professor Hill Kulu quoted in The Times on Scotland's lowest birth rate.
Deaths outnumber births in Britain for the first time since 1976 Wion. 2021
News article references research by Professor Ann Berrington at the Centre for Population Change, about a decline in births following the pandemic.
The Guardian view on declining birthrates: there may be trouble Weibo. 2021
Blog article on Chinese website Weibo quotes research by Centre for Population Change into declining fertility rates, references recent article in The Guardian.
The Women Who Decided They Don't Want Children During The Pandemic Refinery29. 2021
News article on Refinery29 website quotes Dr Bernice Kuang and her research into declining birthrates.
Has Covid caused a baby bust? News Chant. 2021
Article references research by the Centre for Population Change, about a possible decline in births following the pandemic.
Declining birthrates: trouble ahead CathNews New Zealand . 2021
News article on New Zealand news website mentions research by Professor Ann Berrington into declining fertility following the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Guardian view on declining birthrates: there may be trouble ahead The Guardian. 2021
News article in The Guardian references research by the Centre for Population Change, about a possible decline in births following the pandemic.
Generation childless: Has Covid caused a baby bust? The Telegraph. 2021
Professor Ann Berrington comments on fertility rates and the pandemic in The Daily Telegraph.
Lockdown baby boom may be on the way as NHS antenatal bookings rebound The Guardian. 2021
Britain's falling birthrate will damage our society - and it's not just Covid to blame The Guardian. 2021
Article on The Guardian website refers to the Centre for Population Change and research by Professor Ann Berrington and her research team on declining levels of fertility caused by Covid-19. See ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'.
Southampton research finds births could fall due to pandemic The Hampshire Chronicle. 2021
Article in The Hampshire Chronicle refers to research by Professor Ann Berrington and team on declining levels of fertility caused by Covid-19. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'.
Boomer generation's retirement will hurt economy The Telegraph. 2021
Southampton research finds births could fall due to pandemic The Daily Echo. 2021
Britain must reverse the baby bust to avoid an Italian decline The Telegraph. 2021
Article in The Telegraph refers to research by Professor Ann Berrington and team on declining levels of fertility caused by Covid-19. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'.
Of course there's a baby bust. We live in a society that doesn't value children The Telegraph. 2021
Article in The Telegraph refers to research by Professor Ann Berrington and team on declining levels of fertility caused by Covid-19. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'.
Covid pandemic could see baby bust rather than a baby boom About Manchester. 2021
Article on About Manchester refers to research by Professor Ann Berrington and team on declining levels of fertility caused by Covid-19.
Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'
Coronavirus: UK fertility rate falls to lowest level on record Yahoo News. 2021
Article on Yahoo News about declining fertility rates in the UK exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'
Covid-19 could cause historically low levels of childbearing in UK Mirage News. 2021
Article in Mirage News about declining fertility rates in the UK exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'
Covid 'baby bust' fears as fertility rate falls to record low The Telegraph. 2021
Article in the Telegraph newspaper about declining fertility rates in the UK exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'
Covid-19 could cause historically low levels of childbearing in the UK University of Southampton. 2021
Article on the University of Southampton website about declining fertility rates in the UK exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'
The pandemic baby bust Reaction. 2021
The pandemic baby bust Capx. 2021
Blog article on Capx website about the pandemic causing a decline in births features Professor Ann Berrington and her research into fertility trends.
The pandemic baby bust Deloitte. 2021
Blog article on Deloitte website about the pandemic causing a decline in births features Professor Ann Berrington and her research into fertility trends.
Headache of having the kids at home puts brakes on birth rate The Sunday Times. 2021
Professor Ann Berrington comments on the falling birth rate in the UK as a result of the pandemic.
UK's natural population growth is sputtering Mercatornet. 2019
Birthrate in England and Wales at all-time low Guardian, The. 2019
Article on low birthrates in England and Wales: "The birthrate in England and Wales has hit its lowest level since records began, government statistics have shown.". Quotes Ann Berrington.
