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  • Project contributors: Kulu H, Berrington A, Bijak J, Dodd E, Falkingham J, Kuang B, Ellison J, Christison S,

    This Project is part of the following research programme/s:

    Fertility and Family

    Overview

    Fertility significantly increased in the first decade of the 21st century before declining; dramatic fluctuations that were not predicted by demographers or government statisticians. These fluctuations have significant implications for planning and policy making, at both national and local levels.

    The causes of the recent fertility dynamics are unclear and complex. Some researchers attribute the recent fluctuations in fertility levels to changes in the timing of fertility i.e. the postponement or acceleration of childbearing. Others emphasise the importance of changes in population composition or changes in childbearing behaviour in response to policy and the post-2008 economic recession.

    Childbearing is naturally a sequential process; decisions on having an additional child are likely to be evaluated on the basis of experience with previous children. Using census-linked administrative data from the ONS Longitudinal Study, Scottish Longitudinal Study, and Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study, together with survey data from the Understanding Society study, this project carries out a detailed analysis of fertility by birth order to improve future forecasts of fertility.

    The project brings together researchers from the Universities of St Andrews and Southampton, as well as government statisticians from ONS, NRS, and NISRA.

    The project will greatly improve our understanding of the factors associated with changing fertility in the UK and will improve the methodology used for UK fertility forecasts. A better understanding of present childbearing trends and forecast of future developments will be critical to inform the planning of demand for various public services such as nurseries, school places and housing.

    For more information please see the project website here

    Publications & Activities

    Media

    The Rise Of The One-Child Family Refinery29. 2021
    Article on Refinery29 website about the rise of one child families quotes Dr Bernice Kuang.

    England's Euros success risks baby bust The Telegraph. 2021
    News article in The Telegraph about the impact of the Euros tournament on fertility rates.

    Deaths outnumber births in Britain for the first time since 1976 Wion. 2021
    News article references research by Professor Ann Berrington at the Centre for Population Change, about a decline in births following the pandemic.

    The Guardian view on declining birthrates: there may be trouble Weibo. 2021
    Blog article on Chinese website Weibo quotes research by Centre for Population Change into declining fertility rates, references recent article in The Guardian.

    The Women Who Decided They Don't Want Children During The Pandemic Refinery29. 2021
    News article on Refinery29 website quotes Dr Bernice Kuang and her research into declining birthrates.

    Has Covid caused a baby bust? News Chant. 2021
    Article references research by the Centre for Population Change, about a possible decline in births following the pandemic.

    Declining birthrates: trouble ahead CathNews New Zealand . 2021
    News article on New Zealand news website mentions research by Professor Ann Berrington into declining fertility following the Covid-19 pandemic.

    The Guardian view on declining birthrates: there may be trouble ahead The Guardian. 2021
    News article in The Guardian references research by the Centre for Population Change, about a possible decline in births following the pandemic.

    Generation childless: Has Covid caused a baby bust? The Telegraph. 2021
    Professor Ann Berrington comments on fertility rates and the pandemic in The Daily Telegraph.

    Britain's falling birthrate will damage our society - and it's not just Covid to blame The Guardian. 2021
    Article on The Guardian website refers to the Centre for Population Change and research by Professor Ann Berrington and her research team on declining levels of fertility caused by Covid-19. See ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'.

    Southampton research finds births could fall due to pandemic The Hampshire Chronicle. 2021
    Article in The Hampshire Chronicle refers to research by Professor Ann Berrington and team on declining levels of fertility caused by Covid-19. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'.

    Britain must reverse the baby bust to avoid an Italian decline The Telegraph. 2021
    Article in The Telegraph refers to research by Professor Ann Berrington and team on declining levels of fertility caused by Covid-19. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'.

    Of course there's a baby bust. We live in a society that doesn't value children The Telegraph. 2021
    Article in The Telegraph refers to research by Professor Ann Berrington and team on declining levels of fertility caused by Covid-19. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'.

    Covid pandemic could see baby bust rather than a baby boom About Manchester. 2021
    Article on About Manchester refers to research by Professor Ann Berrington and team on declining levels of fertility caused by Covid-19. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'

    Coronavirus: UK fertility rate falls to lowest level on record Yahoo News. 2021
    Article on Yahoo News about declining fertility rates in the UK exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'

    Covid-19 could cause historically low levels of childbearing in UK Mirage News. 2021
    Article in Mirage News about declining fertility rates in the UK exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'

    Covid 'baby bust' fears as fertility rate falls to record low The Telegraph. 2021
    Article in the Telegraph newspaper about declining fertility rates in the UK exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'

    Covid-19 could cause historically low levels of childbearing in the UK University of Southampton. 2021
    Article on the University of Southampton website about declining fertility rates in the UK exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Quotes CPC research led by Professor Ann Berrington ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper 95 'Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic'

    The pandemic baby bust Capx. 2021
    Blog article on Capx website about the pandemic causing a decline in births features Professor Ann Berrington and her research into fertility trends.

    The pandemic baby bust Deloitte. 2021
    Blog article on Deloitte website about the pandemic causing a decline in births features Professor Ann Berrington and her research into fertility trends.

    Headache of having the kids at home puts brakes on birth rate The Sunday Times. 2021
    Professor Ann Berrington comments on the falling birth rate in the UK as a result of the pandemic.

    Birthrate in England and Wales at all-time low Guardian, The. 2019
    Article on low birthrates in England and Wales: "The birthrate in England and Wales has hit its lowest level since records began, government statistics have shown.". Quotes Ann Berrington.